How to Navigate Humanitarian Crises In War

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CHIEF INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: And our next guest is Dr. Rajiv Shah. He’s worked extensively in emergency relief, having led USAID responses across the world. His new book tackles some of the toughest and most persistent issues of our time. And he’s joining Hari Sreenivasan to discuss how decisionmakers can learn from conflicts and implement change.

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HARI SREENIVASAN, INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Christiane, Thanks, Dr. Rajiv Shah. Thanks so much for joining us. I know you’re the head of The Rockefeller Foundation now, and you have worked at the Gates Foundation, USAID. And you know, some of those experiences before we get into this new book that you have called “Big Bets,” I want to ask a couple of questions about the crisis that’s unfolding in front of our eyes right now in Israel. And you have some experience dealing with the aftermath of disasters like Haiti and working in war-torn areas. And I wonder right now, what would you be advising the U.S. government when it comes to figuring out how we can help solve what is likely to be a humanitarian crisis?

DR. RAJIV SHAH, PRESIDENT, THE ROCKEFELLER FOUNDATION AND AUTHOR, “BIG BETS”: Yes, well, Hari, great to see you. And thank you for asking that. I think, you know, decades of experience working in conflict zones during conflicts teaches us that there’s a very simple set of principles the U.S. government and the Israeli government should take into consideration. I think first we have to fully appreciate 1,200 Israelis killed in an absolutely horrific terrorist attack should be condemned, called for what it is and warrants a strong, aggressive response to protect Israel and to allow Israel to protect itself, period. Second, you know, as Israel and its allies, including the United States, approach this, we have to approach this with a three D approach, defense, diplomacy and development and humanitarian affairs. And on the defense side, we’re seeing already an aggressive response. On the diplomatic side, intense diplomacy throughout the region is actually going to be critical to creating an environment where the region doesn’t destabilize further as it has been prone to do in prior situations that are akin to this. And inclusive of development. You know, 63 percent of the Gaza population was food insecure prior to this. Almost a quarter of that population was getting humanitarian assistance from the United States and others and condoned by and supported by Israel prior to this. And, you know, if there’s a massive humanitarian catastrophe, as it looks like we will have, that will destabilize the region in a way that acts against Israeli national interest. ?And frankly, losing the hearts and minds and the value proposition that Israel firmly has right now will further undermine Israeli national security in the medium and long-term And what we’ve seen in so many different examples is a few specific considerations on the front end can help make sure that long-term and middle-term national security is more robust.

SREENIVASAN: You know, one of the things that you say in your book to try to get people to open up kind of possibilities and creative ways of thinking is a question, what would you do if you had a magic wand? And I wonder in conflict situations like this, how do you even approach sides that really are just seeing red?

DR. SHAH: Yes. Well, look, we’ve seen this in Afghanistan. We’ve seen this in Syria and Aleppo. We’ve seen this in so many different settings. And the truth is, there are tactics and approaches one can take to get protect humanitarian priorities even during conflict, and they can be baked into defense strategies and most importantly, baked into diplomatic strategies. You know, Israel has rightly suggested for the purpose of saving civilian lives that people in Gaza evacuate. Now, evacuation, obviously, in that region is very, very, very difficult. There’s — you know, it requires active collaboration with other likeminded nations to take people in. And you could imagine all kinds of different efforts that are already being discussed to help people and civilians in particular not be present when there are impending and significant violent attacks that are coming and already present. So, those are the types of things that we’ve seen work in some other settings. Because it — I just keep coming back to this basic point, it is in our national security interest and Israel’s national security interest to be on the right side. And right now, Israel is 100 percent on the right side morally and from a defense perspective to protect itself and to protect its people and to respond to a horrific, condoned terrorist attack. If you’re trying to help Israel, you want Israel to maintain that position in the region in the world for many, many weeks, months and years to come.

SREENIVASAN: You know, as you mentioned, there are already so many people that were food insecure. And since this sort of siege has happened, Israel has, in essence, cut off food, water, electricity, that is inevitably going to force an enormous outflow of human beings. And again, kind of drawing back on your experiences, how do you prepare the neighborhood, the countries nearby, to try to accept human beings that are fleeing for their lives?

DR. SHAH: Well, this is where America has to help the neighbors. You know, during the crisis in Syria, we provided debt relief and access to capital markets for Jordan. We put resources into Jordan to build out Zaatari, a large-scale refugee camp. We even built out water infrastructure to support the provision of public services to both refugees and Jordanians. I think you need a full engaged dialogue, taking into account all three D’s, defense, diplomacy and development, to help neighboring countries have the resources, have the support, have the external financing quickly to be able to take in as many people as they can and protect civilian lives. And frankly, protect Israel’s right to defend itself, which is sacrosanct.

SREENIVASAN: You know, you’ve looked back on history at times and said, really, it’s in the shadow of World War II that we have some of the greatest international institutions that we’ve created as humanity. I mean, I know this is still the early days of this particular conflict, but considering that it’s such — has been such a long and intractable one, what are, you know, potential positive outcomes that we can work toward to prevent this from happening again?

DR. SHAH: Well, you know, Hari, it is hard to be an optimist in this moment right now, but I am an optimist and I wrote the book “Big Bets” because I’ve seen extraordinary progress be made in the heart of immense pain and suffering. And you’re right. After World War II, America rebuilt Western Europe and created the diplomatic infrastructure through the U.N. and the development infrastructure through the World Band and the IMF that helped lift up hundreds of millions of people and maintain some degree of peace and stability through that western alliance. I think coming out of this, we’re going to have that same moment again. We’ve already been in a moment where lower income countries have been diverging from upper income countries in their recovery from COVID. It’s been one of the first times since World War II you saw divergence there. And that has accelerated food crises, fuel crises, and political instability around the world. This is a moment where we should be thinking aggressively about how to reengage the diplomatic effort in the region. And frankly, it’s an opportunity to create the institutions and mobilize the resources for the long-term peace that I hope will come after this, you know, tragic war.

SREENIVASAN: Well, one of the ideas you write about in the book and you gathered this from the head of the Gates Foundation at the time was kind of starting with a blank page. And how do you get leaders to sit down at a table and start thinking about a blank page when usually there’s so much subtext, there’s so much in the background, there’s so much sort of sometimes history, sometimes painful history that people want to bring up, and that can be between, you know, adversaries on a battlefield or a boardroom or anywhere else?

DR. SHAH: Well, you know, I write about it in the book in the context of the very early days of, of Bill and Melinda Gates’s extraordinary philanthropic efforts and they wanted to immunize every child on the planet because they had read an article about 600,000 kids dying of a disease that was killing kids in poor countries, this was rotavirus, but vaccines were available only in rich countries where kids weren’t dying. And they just said, that’s wrong. Why? And by asking simple questions and starting with a blank page, you have the ability to reimagine what the future could look like. And the book, “Big Bets,” is really about reimagining those futures, sitting down with the right people and saying, look, I — right now, I would start sort of second and third track planning efforts with the partners that will be involved in the post conflict environment to create more stability and more peace and more growth and infrastructure and development opportunities. You know, the United States already provides significant infrastructure support for the West Bank, for example, via Israel via, you know, Israeli financial institutions, and with the explicit support of the Israeli government, because they know that human opportunity and human dignity is ultimately the baseline for stability and peace. And right now, we’re in a global food crisis where food prices have been elevated because of the Ukraine war, but they’re also elevated because climate change is causing a 30 percent reduction in food production in many agrarian economies around the world, and we’re systematically seeing hunger go up by tens or hundreds of millions of people over the next several years, and we know that’s going to lead to conflict and instability as it did after the crisis of food, fuel and financial crisis of 2008. I write in the book about a big global effort President Obama made to have a big bet to address that food security crisis and succeeded by moving almost 100 million people out of hunger and poverty over a decade. Those big efforts can be successful. It’s just too often because of what you mentioned, we just don’t aspire to do the right thing with the right level of resources and the right level of commitment.

SREENIVASAN: You know, one of the big bets you talk about is — and assist that you provided to Mitch Landrieu in New Orleans and his challenge at the time to you was to help him basically get rid of some of the confederate monuments or move them out of the city center, so to speak. You write that, a big bet can feel small in scope and still lead to large-scale change. What happened there?

DR. SHAH: Well, all big bets start with small initial steps, and Mitch is an extraordinary leader. You know, as mayor, he got to know every member of his community and worked with community members over years to build a real dialogue about racial understanding and came to understand that these four confederate statues, one of which was literally a monument to a white terrorist attack on the integrated police force of New Orleans in the post reconstruction era, that these monuments were seen as lifting up and elevating racial hatred to certain communities in New Orleans. And so, he worked with everybody to get everyone to agree to take them down. And he got some resources, he started on that path. And then, the contractor, who was doing that work, had their car firebombed by an outside, you know, white supremacist group. And all of a sudden, the project looked like it would fail. So, Mitch asked me for help. It was — I was early on the job at The Rockefeller Foundation and I took the risk to invest in Mitch’s big bet, because he had had so much community engagement and had aligned stars the right way. We took those statues down. And you know, we didn’t know this, but that then led to dialogue across the country. It went on to Charlottesville and beyond, as many of your viewers will know, and created a real movement around this effort. And you never know when your community activism, which might feel like it’s linked only to your community, will change the way people think and imagine their futures. I myself remember driving by so many of these monuments not thinking enough about what do they really mean, where did they really come from, when were they really built and why. And I’m proud of Mitch. I’m proud of the community he represented for doing that. And I’m proud of my own team for taking some risks and supporting him.

SREENIVASAN: You know, another big bet that you’re still engaged in now, through The Rockefeller Foundation, is climate change. How do you even figure out, kind of, what that simple question should be how you attack such a massive problem with so many different causes, so many different effects? Lead me through, like, you’re thinking about it.

DR. SHAH: Sure. Well, we’ve had for 110 years a mission of lifting up humanity and in particular, vulnerable communities using science and innovation. That’s the founding principle of The Rockefeller Foundation. And when we look at climate change, we see we’re blown past all the ecosystem tipping points, whether it’s ice melt or El Nino effects or heat in particular. And we are doing that in a way that is nowhere near the trajectory of the Paris Agreement of 1.5 degrees centigrade, which came to represent a target the whole world could adopt and abide by and live with. And so, we said, well, what’s the most effective thing we can do? And as we did analysis, we found that by 2050, 80 — 81 countries around the world that are today relatively lower income will account for nearly all 75 plus percent of carbon emissions. And even as we’re taking down coal and moving to renewable energy in the United States and Europe and China, in developing nations around the world, we’re actually building more coal every year, more heavy fuel oil every year, more diesel generation every year. And it’s both a huge constraint to growth and economic job creation. And it’s going to be the one thing kills our chance of achieving anything close to 1.5 or 2 degrees warming on a global basis. So, we got a bunch of companies together. We got scientists together. We invented some new technologies that can provide distributed renewable electrification of very poor communities and built an alliance of unlikely partners, raised about $11.5 dollars. Today, we’re active in in about 22 countries, reaching millions of people with renewable energy that would otherwise not have had access to power outside of some diesel generators, and it’s changing their lives for the better. And it’s offsetting and displacing coal, heavy fuel oil and diesel and hopefully, protecting our planet for the future. Our big bet is we can accelerate the momentum and actually bring a billion people power and energy that don’t have access to electricity at all today. And in the future, they will through new renewable technology.

SREENIVASAN: You know, at the end of each of your chapters, you essentially have kind of a checklist of things that people should do if they’re trying to make big bets. And you write in the book that this is — you’re optimistic to say that this is for everyone, that you don’t have to be a billionaire to start making big bets and changing the world. But having that access to capital, having the access to institutions of knowledge, whether it’s higher education or think tanks, et cetera, how does, you know, the average person that might be picking the book up at an airport, have the ability within themselves to make these big bets to change the world?

DR. SHAH: Well, I think the first is truly the mindset. You know, we are bombarded by news out there that is tough, that is negative, that tells us we’re facing a climate emergency, that highlights conflicts and disasters without putting as much energy into highlighting the tremendous progress that’s been made over years that I write about in the book to really bring dignity to people who haven’t had it for decades. And so, the first step is to — I’m asking readers to pick up the book in the hopes that they will be more optimistic, more ambitious on behalf of what’s possible and to kind of crowd out the social media and the noise that breeds a sort of cynicism in us. I think the second is, no matter what you do, if you’re really committed to these types of efforts, you can find a way to participate. Like I’ve worked with big companies like Unilever on soap distribution campaigns in slums, in urban communities all around the world, and I’ve seen employees from those companies find a sense of meaning and purpose in what is otherwise a great job, but a great job at a consumer products company. And all of a sudden, they kind of come alive because they say, hey, I’m doing my job, but my job is saving lives. And I want more CEOs, more corporate partners to get in the habit of seeing the meaning and purpose in their mission and their work and allowing their teams to participate in that.

SREENIVASAN: The book is called “Big Bets: How Large-Scale Change Really Happens.” Author and president of The Rockefeller Foundation, Dr. Rajiv Shah, thanks so much for joining us.

DR. SHAH: Thank you so much, Hari. Great to be with you.