07.11.2024

GOP Pollster: VP Harris Is the Strongest Democratic Candidate

President Joe Biden remains under intense scrutiny as the 75th NATO summit draws to a close. Amid all this uncertainty and calls for him to drop out of the presidential race, Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins Walter Isaacson to discuss her latest essay, “No Poll Can Tell Biden What He Needs to Hear.”

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>>> NOW PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN REMAINS UNDER INTENSE SCRUTINY, AS WE'VE BEEN SAYING, AS THE SUMMIT DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

AMID ALL THE UNCERTAINTY TO DROP OUT, REPUBLICAN POLLSTER KRISTEN SOLTIS ANDERSON JOINS US TO DISCUSS HER POLL "NO POLL CAN TELL BIDEN WHAT HE NEEDS TO HEAR."

SHE ARGUES THE PRESIDENT'S ISSUE IS NOT A SUDDEN LOSS OF SUPPORT BUT A GRADUAL EROSION OF CONFIDENCE.

>> CREW, CHRISTIANE AND KRISTEN SOLTIS ANDERSON, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

>> SO PRESIDENT BIDEN RESISTING CALLS FOR HIM TO STEP DOWN FROM THE RACE IS DEPLOYING ALL SORTS OF POPULIST RHETORIC, ATTACKING THE ELITES, THE ESTABLISHMENT.

IT'S ALMOST LIKE OUT OF A DONALD TRUMP PLAYBOOK.

WELL THAT WORK IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY?

>> IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S BEEN WORKING FOR NOW.

THE ABILITY TO SAY, LOOK, I'M LISTENING TO THE VOTERS, NOT THE ELITES.

I'M NOT GOING TO APOLOGIZE FOR WHO I AM.

TEASE ARE ALL THINGS THAT HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL WHEN DEPLOYED BY DONALD TRUMP OVER THE LAST EIGHT OR NINE YEARS.

SO YOU CAN UNDERSTAND WHY JOE BIDEN WOULD TAKE THIS DEFIANT POSTURE AND SAY I THINK I CAN JUST SORT OF PUT MY HEAD DOWN AND POWER MY WAY THROUGH THIS.

THE PROBLEM HE MAY FACE IS ONE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND THE REPUBLICAN PARTY ARE NOT THE SAME.

WHILE THEY BOTH HAVE POLITICIANS WHO ARE EAGER TO PLEASE THEIR VOTERS AND STAY ELECTED, THE FORCES WITHIN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN THOSE ON THE GOP SIDE AND MAY MEAN THAT THE PARTY IS LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE I'M GOING TO PUT MY HEAD DOWN, NOT APOLOGIZE, POWER THROUGH SOME KIND OF APPROACH.

YOU ALSO HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THE FACT THAT FOR BIDEN, THE ELECTABILITY CONCERN IS VERY REAL.

AND WHILE FOR DONALD TRUMP HE HAS BEEN ABLE TO SAY WELL, STICK WITH ME, AND I CAN GET ELECTED, AND HIS VOTERS HAVE BELIEVED IT ALL ALONG, FOR BIDEN, THAT IS INCREASINGLY NOT THE CASE.

>> YOU SAY DEFIANCE, A HEAD DOWN, SORT OF STICKING IT TO PEOPLE.

DOES THAT APPEAL TO VOTERS?

IT SEEMS SOMETIMES IT DOES.

>> SO I THINK IN THIS CASE NOT SO MUCH.

I THINK THIS IS IN SOME WAYS A MISREAD ON THE PART OF THE BIDEN TEAM BECAUSE THE CONCERNS THAT VOTERS HAVE ABOUT THE PRESIDENT ARE NOT GOING TO GO AWAY.

THEY'RE VERY MUCH RELATED TO HIS AGE, WHICH IS NOT GOING TO GO IN REVERSE AS WE APPROACH NOVEMBER.

AND FRANKLY, THE ELITES IN SOME WAYS ARE LATE TO THE GAME ON THIS.

RATHER THAN THERE BEING A DISCONNECT BETWEEN ELITES AND THE VOTERS WHERE IT WAS ELITES TRYING TO NUDGE THE VOTERS IN A CERTAIN WAY, THIS WAY VOTERS HAD BEEN SAYING FOR MONTHS 3/4 OF THEM TELLING POLLSTERS THAT THEY THINK THE BIDEN IS FRANKLY TOO OLD.

SO AS A RESULT OF THAT, THIS IS ONE WE'RE I THINK WE'RE SAYING NO, WE'RE GOING TAKE THIS BUNKER MENTALITY AND WE'RE GOING HOPE THIS GOES AWAY, I DON'T THINK LONG-TERM THAT'S LIKELY TO BE A VERY EFFECTIVE SEPARATE.

>>.

>> IS BIDEN THE STRONGEST CANDIDATE TO DEFEAT DONALD TRUMP?

>> RIGHT NOW THE POLL IS -- THE POLLS ARE SOMEWHAT INCONCLUSIVE BECAUSE SOME OF THE OTHER CONTENDERS ARE LESS WELL-KNOWN.

SO WHILE WE PRETTY MUCH KNOW THAT A RACE BETWEEN, SAY, A JOE BIDEN AND DONALD TRUMP RIGHT NOW FAVORS TRUMP BY 5 POINTS OR SO, AGAINST, SAY, KAMALA HARRIS, THE POLLS GIVE A MUCH WIDER RANGE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.

THERE ARE MORE PEOPLE WHO ARE TURNED OFF BY HER, BUT ALSO MORE PEOPLE WHO THINK GOSH, AT LEAST I WOULDN'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THE AGE QUESTION.

TO SAY NOTHING OF FOLKS LIKE GRETCHEN WHITMER, GAVIN NEWSOM, WHO ARE WELL-KNOWN TO FOLKS WHO PAY ATTENTION TO POLITICAL NEWS.

BUT YOUR MEDIAN SWING STATE VOTER PROBABLY DOESN'T KNOW THAT MUCH ABOUT THEM, AND WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO TELL A POLLSTER LIKE ME I DON'T KNOW WHAT I WOULD DO IN THAT CASE.

SO IN SOME WAYS THE RISK OF NOMINATING SOMEONE DIFFERENT IS GREATER, BUT THE POTENTIAL REWARD IS GREATER AS WELL DEPENDING ON THEED THE CANDIDATE.

>> WHO ARE THE STRONGEST CANDIDATES?

>> I THINK AT THIS POINT YOU WOULD HAVE TO SAY KAMALA HARRIS.

IT'S NO NOT BECAUSE SHE IS A WONDERFUL POLITICIAN, BUT BECAUSE IN SOME WAYS THAT WOULD BE THE LEAST DISRUPTIVE PATH FORWARD.

RATHER THAN A VERY CONTENTIOUS PRIMARY WHERE YOU HEAR THESE FANTASYLAND ARGUMENTS WHERE WE HAVE A NICE FRIENDLY SIT AROUND AND TELL WHY THEY HAVE A POSITIVE MESSAGE.

BUT I THINK INEVITABLY THERE WOULD BE SOME NEGATIVITY AND INFIGHTING THAT WOULD NOT BE HELP TO FEEL THE DEMOCRATS.

IF IT WAS INSTEAD A HANDING OF THE REINS OVER TO KAMALA HARRIS, A MORE SEAMLESS TRANSITION, THAT WOULD BE SOMETHING THAT WOULD AVOID THAT PARTISAN INFIGHTING.

AND FRANKLY, IT'S NOT AS THOUGH SHE POLLS SIGNIFICANTLY WORSE THAN JOE BIDEN DOES.

SHE HAS SOME POLITICAL GIFTS AND SOME POLITICAL DOWNSIDES WHEN IT COMES RELATIVE TO THE INCUMBENT PRESIDENT.

BUT I THINK SHE WOULD PROBABLY BE THE BEST BET FOR CONVEYING THAT SENSE OF STABILITY THAT IS WHAT DEMOCRATS ARE REALLY LEANING ON TO MAKE THE CASE THAT THEY SHOULD BE CHOSEN OVER DONALD TRUMP, WHO THEY SAY IS AN AGENT OF EXACTLY THE SORT OF CHAOS THAT VOTERS DO NOT WANT.

>> YOU SAY THAT KAMALA HARRIS WOULD BE A STRONG CANDIDATE, AGENT OF STABILITY.

BUT TO SOME EXTENT POLITICS, ESPECIALLY POPULIST POLITICS THESE DAYS TENDS TO BE AFFECTED BY MEDIA ATTACKS, SOCIAL MEDIA ATTACKS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CONSERVATIVES ON SOCIAL MEDIA IN WHICH HE IS A REAL TARGET.

BUT OF COURSE ALL SIDES ON SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE MEDIA.

DON'T YOU THINK THAT THAT SHE PRESENTS A TARGET MORE THAN OTHER DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES?

>> WELL, SHE CERTAINLY REPRESENTS HAVING A TARGET ON HER BACK BECAUSE SHE HAS ALREADY BEEN A TARGET AT LEAST OF CONSERVATIVE MEDIA FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

SO THAT WOULD NOT BE ANYTHING NEW.

AND I GUESS WHAT THAT RAISES FOR ME IS THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH OF THAT IS ALREADY KIND OF PRICED IN, WHERE FOR SOMEBODY LIKE A GRETCHEN WHITMER, TO WHAT EXTENT ARE THEIR THERE THINGS IN HER RECORD IN ADMINISTRATION THAT WOULD BE UNFLATTERING, PERHAPS SOMETHING LIKE THE HANDLING OF COVID-19.

WE KNOW THAT'S A SORE SPOT FOR DEMOCRATS WITHIN THEIR OWN COALITION.

IS THAT SOMETHING THAT MAKES HER POTENTIALLY A RISK.

TO SAY NOTHING OF GAVIN NEWSOM YOU CAN GUARANTEE IF HE WAS CHOSEN BY THE DEMOCRATS, REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO BE ALL TOO HAPPY TO TALK ABOUT HIM GOING TO DINNER AT THE FRENCH LAUNDRY WHILE EVERYTHING ELSE WAS CLOSED IN CALIFORNIA.

THERE IS PLENTY IN GAVIN NEWSOM'S RECORD THAT REPUBLICANS WOULD ALSO CONSIDER A PRETTY TARGET-RICH ENVIRONMENT.

SO, YES, KAMALA HARRIS IS NOT NECESSARILY THE MOST BELOVED, POPULAR, OR PERFECT VICE PRESIDENT THERE.

BUT SHE WOULD BE SOMEBODY WHO YOU COULD HAND THE REINS TO VERY EFFECTIVELY.

AND FRANKLY, I HAVE TO IMAGINE IF YOU'RE SOMEBODY LIKE A GRETCHEN WHITMER OR A GAVIN NEWSOM, YOU THINK YOUR POLITICAL LIFE CYCLE MIGHT BE A LITTLE LONGER.

YOU MAY RECOGNIZE THAT STEPPING IN RIGHT NOW IS VERY RISKY AND COULD REALLY DO SOME DAMAGE TO YOUR LONG-TERM.

YOU MAY NOT WANT ANY PART OF THIS, EVEN IF HARRIS IS NOT ESSENTIALLY ANOINTED THE PERSON THAT BIDEN HANDS THINGS OVER TO.

>> YOU HAVE WRITTEN A PIECE THAT SAYS "NO POLL CAN TELL BIDEN WHAT HE NEEDS TO HEAR."

TWO QUESTIONS.

WHY NOT?

WHY CAN'T A POLL HELP TELL HIM THAT?

AND SECONDLY, WHAT DOES HE NEED TO HEAR?

>> WELL, I THINK WHAT PRESIDENT BIDEN NEEDS TO HEAR IS THAT HE HAS SERVED HIS COUNTRY FOR THE LAST THREE AND A HALF YEARS.

HE HAS SERVED A LONG TIME IN PUBLIC SERVICE, AS YOU NOTED.

MY ENTIRE LIFETIME FOR SURE, AND THAT HE OUGHT TO WALK AWAY, TAKE HIS ACHIEVEMENTS, HOPE THAT HISTORY LOOKS FONDLY ON HIM, AND KNOW WHEN TO STEP AWAY.

AND I DON'T THINK A POLL IS GOING TO GIVE HIM THE NUDGE THAT HE NEEDS TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN.

I MEAN, YOU HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS RACE RATINGS CHANGE WHERE YOU NOW HAVE A LOT OF THE SWING STATES HAVE BEEN MOVED EVEN FURTHER INTO DONALD TRUMP'S CAMP, OR THEY'VE BEEN MOVED AWAY FROM BEING TOSS-UPS.

IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY AT THIS POINT THAT JOE BIDEN WILL NOT BE RE-ELECTED FOR A SECOND TERM.

BUT THE POLLS AT THIS POINT HAVE ALSO NOT CRATERED FOR HIM DRAMATICALLY.

HE IS NOT LOSING TO TRUMP BY 10, 15 POINTS.

THE SORT OF THING YOU MIGHT SEE IN AN ALTERNATE NORMAL REALITY WHERE YOU HAVE A PRESIDENT THAT AMERICANS THINK SIMPLY CANNOT SERVE.

YOU HAVE AN AWFUL LOT OF VOTERS WHO SAY I DON'T THINK JOE BIDEN CAN MAKE IT ANOTHER FOUR YEARS, BUT I'M VOTING FOR HIM ANYWAYS BECAUSE HE IS NOT DONALD TRUMP.

SO MY COLUMN ESSENTIALLY SAID THERE ARE A LOT OF VOTERS ALREADY EXPECTING THE JOE BIDEN IS HAVING MENTAL ACUTE ISSUES, THAT HIS AGE IS ALREADY A PROBLEM, AND THEY NEVERTHELESS HAVE CALCULATED HE IS STILL BETTER THAN DONALD TRUMP.

AND SO THAT'S WHY AFTER THE DEBATES YOU DID SEE BIDEN'S POLLING GO DOWN A LITTLE BIT.

BUT NOT THAT MUCH.

I DON'T THINK IT'S BEEN THE KIND OF EARTHQUAKE WE EXPECTED TO FORCE BIDEN TO REALLY HAVE TO STEP OUT OF THE RACE.

>> SO WHAT YOU'RE SAYING IS EVEN THOUGH THE POLLS SHOW THAT 70 TO 80% OF PEOPLE OF ALL PARTIES FEEL JOE BIDEN'S TOO OLD TO BE PRESIDENT, HE MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO SERVE OUT OF TERM, THAT THAT'S NOW BEEN PRICED IN, SO TO SPEAK, AND YOU DON'T THINK IT WILL FURTHER AFFECT THIS RACE.

>> IT'S POSSIBLE THAT HE CONTINUES TO GIVE INTERVIEWS OR UNSCRIPTED APPEARANCES THAT FURTHER UNDERSCORE A STATE OF DECLINE AND THAT MAKE PEOPLE GO I THOUGHT IT WAS BAD, BUT I DIDN'T THINK IT WAS THIS BAD.

SO I DON'T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THINGS COULD GET WORSE.

BUT I ALSO THINK THAT SOMETHING IN A WEIRD WAY BENEFITS JOE BIDEN IS THE FACT THAT HIS COALITION IS NOT ABOUT HIM.

DONALD TRUMP'S COALITION IS ABOUT DONALD TRUMP.

IT'S PEOPLE AFFIRMATIVELY SAYING I LIKE DONALD TRUMP.

BUT FOR JOE BIDEN, IN THE 2020 ELECTION WHEN WE LOOKED A THE EXIT POLLS, MOST OF THE PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR JOE BIDEN SAID THEIR VOTE WAS MOSTLY ABOUT OPPOSING DONALD TRUMP.

SO IN SOME WAYS JOE BIDEN BEING VERY IMPERFECT OR POTENTIALLY NOT BEING UP TO THE JOB OF BEING PRESIDENT IS LESS IMPORTANT BECAUSE HIS VOTERS ARE WITH HIM BECAUSE HE'S NOT DONALD TRUMP.

IT ALSO MAY MAKE IT EASIER FOR DEMOCRATS TO MAKE A SWITCH TO PUT SOMEONE ELSE IN THAT POSITION BECAUSE THEIR COALITION, AGAIN, NOT ABOUT THE NAME THAT'S ON THE BALLOT.

IT'S ABOUT NOT BEING DONALD TRUMP.

>> DONALD TRUMP'S ONLY A COUPLE OF YEARS YOUNGER THAN JOE BIDEN.

HE'S ALSO BEEN CONVICTED OF FELONIES, ALL SORTS OF LEGAL PROBLEMS.

DOES THAT COME UP IN YOUR DISCUSSION WITH VOTERS AND PARTICULARLY WITH REPUBLICAN VOTERS?

>> SO DONALD TRUMP'S MANY FLAWS, HIS CONVICTIONS, HIS ACCUSATIONS, ALL OF IT IS ANOTHER WAY KIND OF PRICED IN TO WHAT PEOPLE THINK ABOUT DONALD TRUMP.

AND IN A WEIRD WAY, DONALD TRUMP HAVING BEEN ABSENT FROM THE PUBLIC MIND AND OUT OF THE WHITE HOUSE IN MY VIEW HAS MADE A LOT OF VOTERS REVERT BACK TO THINKING OF HIM AS KIND OF OUTLAW BUSINESSMAN.

THEY THINK OF HIM MORE IN TERMS OF HIS KIND OF "THE APPRENTICE" ERA PERSONA THAN THE WAY THEY THOUGHT OF HIM AS PRESIDENT.

WHEN DONALD TRUMP WAS PRESIDENT, HIS APPROVAL RATINGS WERE NOT GREAT, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END.

THERE WERE LOTS OF AMERICANS WHO SAID I DON'T THINK THIS IS WORKING OUT AND I WANT A CHANGE.

BUT AS HE HAS BEEN FURTHER AND FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE WHITE HOUSE, THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A NOSTALGIA THAT HAS SET IN WHERE VOTERS ARE LOOKING PAST THINGS LIKE THE FELONY CONVICTIONS AND SAYING YEAH, YEAH, I KNOW HE IS NOT A GREAT GUY.

BUT I THINK THE ECONOMY WAS BETTER WHEN HE WAS PRESIDENT.

I THINK HIS POLICIES MADE ME BETTER OFF.

SO DONALD TRUMP HAS REALLY BENEFITTED FROM EVEN THOUGH HE'S HAD ALL OF THE STUFF HAPPEN THAT WE WOULD THINK IN NORMAL TIMES WOULD BE UNFATHOMABLE IN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, HE IS ABLE TO KIND OF RIDE IT OUT BECAUSE VOTERS STILL THINK HIS POLICIES WOULD MAKE THEM BETTER OFF.

THAT'S A VERY POWERFUL BELIEF WORKING IN HIS FAVOR.

>> ONE OF THE KEY ELEMENTS OF DONALD TRUMP'S CAMPAIGN RAN FOR IN THE PLATFORMS THEY'VE BEEN DISCUSSING THIS WEEK IS TO SEAL THE BORDER AND TO HAVE A MASSIVE DEPORTATION OF PEOPLE IN THIS COUNTRY ILLEGALLY.

HOW WELL DOES THAT RESONATE WITH REPUBLICAN VOTERS, AND FOR THAT MATTER, WITH DEMONSTRATES AND INDEPENDENTS.

IS THAT A KEY ISSUE FOR AMERICA?

>> IT IS A VERY KEY ISSUE WITH REPUBLICANS.

AND IT WAS DONALD TRUMP'S EARLY ADOPTION OF THE IMMIGRATION ISSUE AS SORT OF HIS SIGNATURE PLATFORM PIECE, THE BUILD THE WALL POLICY OF 2016, THAT IS WHAT ENDEARED HIM TO THE REPUBLICAN BASE IN THE FIRST PLACE.

IT MADE HIM DIFFERENT FROM THE MORE KIND OF PRO-BUSINESS MODERATE ON THE IMMIGRATION STANCE THAT MOST OF THE REST OF THE PARTY LEADERS BACK THEN HAD ADOPTED.

AND SINCE THEN, AMERICANS REALLY MOVED TO THE RIGHT ON THE IMMIGRATION ISSUE.

IT'S NO LONGER JUST SOMETHING THAT REPUBLICANS BELIEVE STRONGLY IN.

IT'S AN ISSUE WHERE EVEN INDEPENDENT VOTERS BLIF THE GOP A WIDE MARGIN IN SAYING I TRUST THIS PARTY MORE TO HANDLE THE ISSUE.

NOW THERE ARE WAYS THAT REPUBLICANS CAN OVERPLAY THIS, AND WE CERTAINLY SAW, FOR INSTANCE, DURING TRUMP'S PRESIDENCY, THE FAMILY SEPARATION ISSUE, THE STORIES OF PARENTS BEING SEPARATED FROM THEIR CHILDREN AT THE BORDER.

THAT, AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT, REALLY SWUNG PUBLIC OPINION AGAINST TRUMP.

PEOPLE SAID THAT'S TOO FAR.

SO IF HE WERE TO BE ELECTED AND IF YOU WERE TO SEE THINGS LIKE HAPPENING AGAIN, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT PUBLIC OPINION COULD GO WHOA, WHOA, WHOA, WE WANTED A SECURE BORDER.

WELL WANTED THE LAW ENFORCED, BUT THIS FEELS LIKE TOO MUCH.

BUT IN THE MOMENT, AT LEAST IN THE ABOUT A TRACK, WHAT PEOPLE ARE SEEING ARE IMAGES OF BORDER CROSSINGS.

IT SEEMS LIKE THERE IS LAWLESSNESS AFOOT.

DONALD TRUMP CLAIMS TO BE THE STRONGMAN WHO OUT WITHES TO PUT LAW AND ORDER.

IT'S ONE OF HIS KEY POINTS OF APPEAL TO SOME OF THESE SWING VOTERS THAT HAVE NOW GONE INTO HIS CAMP.

>> PRESIDENT BIDEN AND THE DEMOCRATS WANT TO MAKE ABORTION AND REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS THE MAIN ISSUE.

IS THAT POSSIBLE TO MAKE THAT THE MAIN ISSUES IN VOTERS' MINDS?

AND TO WHAT EXTENT IS IT AN EFFECTIVE ISSUE WITH REPUBLICAN VOTERS AS WELL AS DEMOCRATIC VOTERS?

>> SO THE ISSUE OF ABORTION WAS ONE THAT USED TO ANIMATE BOTH PARTIES' BASES, BUT WAS PRETTY OUT OF THE MIX FOR YOUR KIND OF SWING VOTER.

THE CONSENSUS AROUND ROE V. WADE HAD TAKEN THE ISSUE OFF THE TABLE.

BUT WHAT WE SAW IN 2022 WITH ABORTION AS A LIVE ISSUE, ONE THAT SUDDENLY WAS IN FLUX, AND NOW ONE IN 2024 WERE ABLE TO ACTUALLY BE ON THE BALLOT IN A NUMBER OF KEY STATES IN TERMS OF CONSTITUTIONAL BALLOT AMENDMENTS AND SUCH, THIS IS AN ISSUE THAT IS GOING TO PLAY BIG ROLE.

IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TWO WAYS.

FIRST, BY BEING VERY MOTIVATIONAL TO DEMOCRATS, EVEN IF THEY FIND THAT JOE BIDEN IS A LACKLUSTER CANDIDATE.

OR EVEN IF THERE IS A SWAP AND YOU GET SOMEONE LIKE KAMALA HARRIS WHO IS A VERY SLAW FUALAAUED CANDIDATE, YOU WILL STILL HAVE A LOT OF DEMOCRATIC VOTERS TURNING OUT BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT DONALD TRUMP.

AND DOWN VOTING BALLOTS BECAUSE THEY WANT TO GET ROE REENSHRINED INTO LAW SOME WAY, EITHER THROUGH THE SENATE, THROUGH THE APPOINTMENT OF JUDGES IN THE FUTURE, THOSE SORTS OF THINGS.

THAT'S PIECE NUMBER ONE.

BUT PIECE NUMBER TWO IS ALSO FOR THE SWING VOTERS.

HAVE I HEARD FROM SWING VOTERS WHO WILL NOT SAY ABORTION IS THEIR TOP ISSUE AT ALL.

THEY SAY COST OF LIVING IS NUMBER ONE.

BUT IF THEY HEAR THAT A POLITICIAN IS PRO-LIFE AND WANTS TO PUT INTO ANY POLICY THAT IS PRETTY EXTREME, SOMETHING LIKE AN EARLY ON ABORTION BAN, IT'S THE SORT OF THING THAT CAN BE A DEAL BREAKER ISSUE WHERE THEY WON'T TELL A POLLSTER LIKE ME ABORTION IS NUMBER ONE, BUT IT'S VERY HARD FOR THEM TO IMAGINE CASTING A BALLOT FOR SOMEONE WITH WHOM THEY STRONGLY DISAGREE ON THE ISSUE.

SO THAT'S WHY IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE A TOP ISSUE, AND IT'S CERTAINLY NOT ONE THAT REPUBLICANS WANT TO TALK ABOUT A LOT, YOU SAW REPUBLICANS HAVE SOME LANGUAGE AROUND ABORTION KIND OF SOFTENED IN THEIR PLATFORM AS THEY HEAD INTO THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION.

REPUBLICANS KNOW THIS IS A LIABILITY AND ARE TRYING TO AVOID IT, WHILE DEMOCRATS KNOW IT MAY BE THEIR BEST SHOT IN A YEAR WHERE YOU HAVE SOMEBODY LIKE A PRESIDENT BIDEN ON THE TICKET WHO VOTERS DO NOT SEEM TO BE VERY FAVORABLE TOWARD.

CIRCUMSTANCES THERE A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THAT DONALD TRUMP CAN TAKE BLACK, AND FOR THAT MATTER HISPANIC VOTERS AWAY FROM THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY?

>> I THINK THERE IS.

AND WE'VE SEEN IT IN AN AWFUL LOT OF DATA THAT'S COME IN OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS.

IT WASN'T JUST ONE OR TWO POLLS HERE OR THERE THAT SHOWED DONALD TRUMP DOING WELL.

IT WAS A NUMBER OF POLLS WHERE IF YOU LOOK IN THE CROSS TABS, YOU SEE THIS PATTERN EMERGE.

DONALD TRUMP IS IN PARTICULAR DOING WELL WITH LATINO VOTERS.

WE'VE SEEN REPUBLICANS REALLY BUILDING A GREATER AND GREATER SHARE OF THEIR VOTE WITH THE LATINO PART OF THEIR COALITION, ESPECIALLY IN STATES LIKE FLORIDA AND IN TEXAS.

SOME OF THE PARTS IN 2020 THAT ACTUALLY SWUNG TOWARD DONALD TRUMP RATHER THAN AWAY FROM HIM WERE THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, BECAUSE THE POLITICS OF AN ISSUE LIKE CRIME OR LIKE IMMIGRATION OR LIKE THE ECONOMY HAVE NOT BENEFITTED DEMOCRATS.

THEIR MESSAGE ON THOSE ISSUES HAVE NOT RESONATED WITH VOTERS OF COLOR AS MUCH AS DONALD TRUMP'S MESSAGE OF I'M GOING TO TRY TO MAKE SURE THAT YOUR JOB PAYS A GOOD WAGE.

I'M GOING TO TRY TO KEEP YOUR TAXES LOW.

I'M GOING HELP ENTREPRENEURS AND I'M GOING TRY TO ENFORCE THE LAW.

IT'S A MESSAGE THAT FOR VOTERS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM THEY HAVE FOUND TO BE A LITTLE MORE APPEALING THAN I THINK DEMOCRATS BARGAINED FOR.

SO THERE IS A REAL CHANCE THAT DONALD TRUMP COULD DO BETTER AMONG, SAY, BLACK MEN THAN HE DID IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS.

AND THAT WOULD BE A VERY I THINK SHOCKING FINDING TO MANY.

BUT IF DONALD TRUMP WINS, THAT WILL BE A BIG PIECE OF HOW HE GETS THERE.

>> KRISTEN SOLTIS ANDERSON, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

About This Episode EXPAND

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba joins the program from the NATO summit. Dr. Anthony Fauci on his new memoir “On Call: A Doctor’s Journey in Public Service.” Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins Walter Isaacson to discuss her latest essay, “No Poll Can Tell Biden What He Needs to Hear.”

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