October 21, 2024

>>> HELLO, EVERYONE, AND WELCOME TO "AMANPOUR AND COMPANY."

HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP.

>> I TOLD THE PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL YESTERDAY, LET'S ALSO MAKE THIS MOMENT AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEEK A PATH TO PEACE.

>> THE PRESIDENT'S ADVICE TO ISRAEL, AFTER IT ELIMINATED THE HAMAS BOSS IN GAZA.

BUT THE PRIME MINISTER SAYS THE WAR IS NOT OVER, AND THE DEVASTATION CONTINUES.

VETERAN MIDDLE EAST DIPLOMAT RYAN CROCKER, FORMER U.S.

AMBASSADOR TO LEBANON, JOINS US ON RESHAPING THE REGION.

>> HE'S BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND UNHINGED.

>> SHE'S LYING KAMALA.

>> WITH JUST 15 DAYS TO GO, THE RACE IS STILL IN A DEAD HEAT.

WE BRING YOU THE VIEW FROM ABROAD AND AT HOME, WITH LESLIE VINJAMURI AND DEMOCRATIC STRATEGY SIMON ROSENBERG.

THEN -- >> DONALD TRUMP IS NOT A PEACEMAKER.

HE IS NOT THE PERSON THAT'S GOING TO AVOID WORLD WAR II I.

>> WHAT THE AMERICAN ELECTION RESULT COULD MEAN FOR ALLIES AND FOR UKRAINE.

WALTER ISAACSON ASKS ALEXANDER VINDMAN, THE FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL OFFICIAL WHOSE TESTIMONY HELPED IMPEACH TRUMP.

>>> "AMANPOUR AND COMPANY" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY -- THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT.

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THE FAMILY FOUNDATION OF LEILA AND MICKEY STRAUS.

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AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

THANK YOU.

>>> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE, I'M CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR IN NEW YORK.

DESPITE KILLING HAMAS LEADER YAHYA SINWAR LAST WEEK, ISRAEL IS STEPPING UP ITS MILITARY CAMPAIGN IN GAZA.

OVER THE WEEKEND, STRIKES ON A RESIDENTIAL BUILDING IN THE NORTH KILLED DOZENS OF PEOPLE.

AND IN LEBANON, ISRAEL'S CAMPAIGN APPEARS TO BE STRAYING FURTHER AWAY FROM MILITARY TARGETS, ATTACKING BRANCHES OF A HEZBOLLAH FINANCIAL CENTER WHICH IS USED BY MANY CIVILIANS AS A BANK.

MEANWHILE, A HEZBOLLAH DRONE HAS HIT THE PRIVATE RESIDENCE OF THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, WHO WAS NOT THERE.

NO INJURIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

ALL THIS AGAINST A BACKDROP OF PUBLIC STATEMENTS BY PRESIDENT BIDEN TO USE THIS MOMENT AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO TURN THE PAGE.

JOINING ME NOW IS THE FORMER U.S.

AMBASSADOR TO LEBANON, IRAQ, SYRIA, AND POSTS ACROSS THE REGION.

HE'S THE VETERAN DIPLOMAT RYAN CROCKER.

WELCOME, RYAN CROCKER, AMBASSADOR, FROM BRITAIN.

WHERE, NO DOUBT, BEING ABLE TO ABSORB THE INTERNATIONAL SENTIMENT ABOUT THE ELECTIONS, AND ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

SO, LET'S JUST GET GOING WITH THE FIRST QUESTION.

IS THIS A MOMENT, DO YOU THINK, WHERE ISRAEL AND THE REGION CAN STEP OFF THE -- THE ROAD TO WAR, OR NOT?

>> I THINK THERE IS A MOMENT, PROVIDED BOTH SIDES AND OUTSIDE PARTIES SUCH AS THE UNITED STATES THINK SMALL, AND THINK REALISTICALLY.

THE DEATH OF SINWAR CLEARLY WAS A MAJOR BLOW TO HAMAS, AND A MAJOR ACHIEVEMENT FOR ISRAEL, BUT IT DOESN'T FUNDAMENTALLY ALTER THE TERMS OF THE CONFLICT.

AND SIMILARLY, THE DECAPITATION OF THE HEZBOLLAH LEADERSHIP IN LEBANON, AS WE HAVE SEEN VERY DRAMATICALLY WITH THAT DRONE STRIKE THAT HIT THE PRIME MINISTER'S RESIDENCE, HAS NOT CURTAILED THEIR ABILITY TO FIRE MISSILES ACROSS THE BORDER.

SO, I WOULD URGE ALL PARTIES TO THINK SMALL, THINK IN TERMS OF A CEASE-FIRE THAT CAN SAVE LIVES IN LEBANON, AND AMONG PALESTINIANS IN GAZA AND OF SUPREME IMPORTANCE, GIVE THE CHANCE TO GET THE HOSTAGES BACK ALIVE.

BUT THIS IS NOT THE MOMENT IN WHICH WE SEE A FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICS OF THE MIDDLE EAST.

>> BUT CAN I ASK YOU, BECAUSE YOU SAY THE DEATH OF SINWAR HASN'T FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED THE DYNAMIC ON THE GROUND.

SO, I GUESS ISRAEL WOULD SAY THE SAME THING, THAT, YOU KNOW, YES, WE'VE KILLED HIM, BUT THE WAR CONTINUES.

AND IT'S REALLY, THEY'RE GOING AT IT, IN AN EXTREMELY, YOU KNOW, SORT OF STEPPED UP WAY.

AND LIKEWISE, IN LEBANON, WE HEARD TODAY, ISRAEL SAYING, WE WILL STRIKE LEBANON UNTIL HEZBOLLAH COLLAPSES.

DO YOU THINK IT'S POSSIBLE FOR ISRAEL TO ACHIEVE THOSE MAXIMALIST GOALS?

YOU WERE IN LEBANON WHEN HEZBOLLAH WAS FORMED, I THINK.

>> I WAS.

AS A RESULT OF THE ISRAELI INVASION OF 1982, AND THE SUBSEQUENT OCCUPATION OF SOUTHERN LEBANON.

THAT WAS THE BIRTH OF HEZBOLLAH.

AND LET'S REMEMBER THAT THAT OPERATION, THAT INVASION IN 1982, WAS CALLED OPERATION PEACE FOR GALILEA.

TRYING TO STOP THE PALESTINE LIBERATION ACROSS THE BORDER.

WELL, 42 YEARS LATER, WE ARE VERY FAR FROM PEACE, FROM 60,000 ISRAELIS EVACUATED FROM THEIR COMMUNITIES.

IT WAS AN ISRAELI OCCUPATION THAT GAVE BIRTH TO HEZBOLLAH.

ANOTHER OCCUPATION IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO ELIMINATE HEZBOLLAH, LET ME JUST PUT IT THAT WAY.

>> AND YET, OBVIOUSLY, YOU JUST MENTIONED THAT THOSE 60,000 CIVILIANS AND OTHERS HAVE BEEN MOVED FROM THEIR PLACES OF RESIDENCE IN NORTHERN ISRAEL, AND YOU KNOW THAT HEZBOLLAH STARTED TO FIRE ON OCTOBER 8th IN SUPPORT OF HAMAS.

SO, WHAT WOULD YOU ADVISE, HAVING KNOWN SO MUCH AND, YOU KNOW, ABSORBED SO MUCH NOT JUST IN LEBANON, BUT WE MENTIONED IRAQ AFTER THE INVASION, AFGHANISTAN, ALL THESE PLACES THAT HAVE DEALT WITH THE ATTEMPT TO CHANGE REGIMES AND TO STAMP OUT MILITANTISM.

>> WELL, THE HARDER ONE STAMPS, THE MORE MILITANTS ONE SEEMS TO ENGENDER, SO, AGAIN, I THINK THE IMPERATIVE HAS TO BE EVERY EFFORT POSSIBLE TO GET A CEASE-FIRE IN THE NORTH, IN LEBANON, AND A CEASE-FIRE IN GAZA.

THAT IS NOT GOING TO BE EASY, BUT IT IS, I THINK, JUST POSSIBLE, AND I COMMEND THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION AND SECRETARY BLINKEN IN PARTICULAR FOR MAKING THE EFFORT AT THIS DELICATE JUNCTURE.

THERE ARE TWO DIFFERENT CONFLICTS, OBVIOUSLY.

IN LEBANON, THERE IS THE ARCHITECTURE FOR A CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES THAT RESTS IN 1701, THAT WAS PASSED AFTER THE HEZBOLLAH-ISRAELI CONFLICT OF 2006.

THAT WOULD CALL FOR DEPLOYMENT OF THE LEBANESE ARMY THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH, THE CESSATION OF ANY ARMED ACTION BY ANY PARTY THAT THE LEBANESE GOVERNMENT ASSISTED BY THE UNITED NATIONS INTERIM FORCE IN LEBANON WOULD HAVE THE SOLE POWER, AND ISRAEL WOULD WITHDRAW ITS FORCES.

IT MIGHT BE THAT ISRAEL, BECAUSE, AGAIN, THE DECAPITATION OF THE HEZBOLLAH LEADERSHIP HAS NOT STOPPED THE FIRE.

THEY MIGHT BE INTERESTED UNTIL A CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES, ELIMINATING THE COMMAND OF THEIR ADVERSARY, AND IT MIGHT BE THAT HEZBOLLAH AND IRAN BEHIND THEM WOULD WELCOME A CEASE-FIRE AT THIS POINT TO REGROUP AND REORGANIZE.

BUT AGAIN, THERE SHOULD BE NO ILLUSION ON THE PART OF ANYONE THAT THE KILLING OF NASRALLAH AND HIS COMMANDERS ALTERS THE WILL OR ABILITY OF HEZBOLLAH TO PROSECUTE THIS MILITARY CAMPAIGN.

>> SO, LET ME JUST QUOTE WHAT YOU YOURSELF SAID IN A POLITICO INTERVIEW JUST THIS WEEK.

ONE THING I'VE LEARNED OVER YEARS, ESPECIALLY IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN, IS THAT THE CONCEPT OF THE DEFEAT OF AN ADVERSARY ONLY HAS MEANING IN THE MIND OF THAT ADVERSARY.

IF THAT ADVERSARY FEELS DEFEATED, HE IS DEFEATED.

IF HE DOESN'T, HE'S NOT.

AND I THINK YOU'VE JUST SAID THAT NEITHER HAMAS NOR HEZBOLLAH DEGRADED AND DAMAGED AND HURT AND WOUNDED AS THEY ARE FEEL DEFEATED.

>> I THINK THAT IS EXACTLY RIGHT.

AND THE FURTHER APPLICATION OF ISRAELI FORCE IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE THAT BASIC MIND-SET ON THE PART OF ITS ADVERSARIES.

WHAT IT WILL DO IS KILL EVEN MORE CIVILIANS IN GAZA AND IN LEBANON.

AND THAT IS IN NO ONE'S INTEREST.

NOT IN ISRAEL, CERTAINLY NOT IN THE INTEREST OF THE PEOPLE'S OF THE REGIONS, AND NOT IN THE INTEREST OF THE UNITED STATES.

>> AND, OF COURSE, STILL, THE HOSTAGES ARE STILL LANGUISHING THERE, THOSE THAT -- THOSE WHO REMAIN, AND THERE SEEMS TO BE NO MOVEMENT TOWARDS THAT, IN FACT, YOU MENTIONED, YOU KNOW, PRAISING THE ADMINISTRATION, BUT JUST TODAY, THEIR SPOKESMAN, NATIONAL SECURITY SPOKESMAN, BASISLY POURED SOME COLD WATER OVER THE PROSPECT OF ANY CEASE-FIRE OR ANY IMPROVEMENT BEFORE THE ELECTION.

I MEAN, IT'S A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE IN -- IN THEIR -- IN THEIR TALKING POINTS.

AND SO, I WANT TO KNOW WHAT YOU THINK, A, IN LEBANON, BECAUSE TODAY, AS WE REPORTED NOT ONLY WAS THERE A ROCKET FIRE ONTO THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER'S PRIVATE RESIDENCE, BUT THE ISRAELIS CONDUCTED MANY STRIKES OVER THESE BANKS, THESE FINANCIAL CENTERS, WHICH APPARENTLY EXIST ALSO IN -- IN RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBORHOODS, AND, YOU KNOW, ISRAEL SAYS THAT IT WANTS TO CUT HEZBOLLAH OFF FINANCIALLY, AND THEREFORE, ADD TO CRIPPLING IT.

WHAT DO YOU THINK THAT IS GOING TO LEAD TO?

>> THAT IS GOING TO LEAD TO FURTHER DEVASTATION, FURTHER SUFFERING, FURTHER DEATHS OF INNOCENT LEBANESE.

WE HAVE, AGAIN, WE'VE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE, CHRISTIANE, AND YOU REMEMBER IT AS CLEARLY AS I DO.

THAT WAS THE ISRAELI CAMPAIGN STRATEGY IN 1982-1983.

STRIKES INTO BEIRUT, THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH, AT PALESTINIAN TARGETS, AT CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, AT FINANCIAL CENTERS.

IT ELIMINATED THE PLO AS A MILITARY THREAT TO ISRAEL, BUT AS WE'VE ALREADY DISCUSSED, IT ENGENDERED HEZBOLLAH, A FAR MORE LETHAL, MORE POTENT ADVERSARY THAN THE PLO EVER DREAMED OF BEING.

AND THIS CAMPAIGN THAT ISRAEL IS UNDERTAKING IN LEBANON IS SIMPLY NOT GOING TO SILENCE THE ROCKET FIRE OR THE GUNS.

>> SO, WHAT IS THE ANSWER, THEN?

BECAUSE YOU'VE MENTIONED A RESOLUTION 1701, AND THAT WAS WHAT WAS IN PLACE AS A SORT OF A CEASE-FIRE MECHANISM AFTER THE 2006 WAR THAT WE'VE JUST BEEN TALKING ABOUT BETWEEN ISRAEL AND HEZBOLLAH.

AND YET, I THINK, ALL SIDES, INCLUDING OBSERVERS -- YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU AGREE, IT WAS JUST NEVER IMPLEMENTED, AND THE U.N. WAS UNABLE TO, IT DOESN'T HAVE FORCE AS ITS MANDATE, AND IT JUST -- APPARENTLY WASN'T IMPLEMENTED.

DO YOU AGREE WITH THE FACT THAT IT WAS -- IT FAILED, AND THEREFORE, WHAT IS THE -- THE ANSWER?

>> THE ANSWER, IF THERE IS ONE, IS IN THE CHANGE IN CIRCUMSTANCES.

THAT HEZBOLLAH HAS BEEN BADLY HURT WITH ITS LEADERSHIP ELIMINATED.

IRAN IS ON ITS BACK FOOT.

ISRAEL HAS A HUGE PROBLEM WITH CONTINUED FIRE ACROSS ITS BORDERS.

IT PREVENTS 60,000 ISRAELIS FROM RETURNING HOME.

SO, IT MAY BE THAT ALL PARTIES WOULD HAVE AN INTEREST NOW THAT THEY DID NOT HAVE IN 2006 IN FIRST A CEASE-FIRE, AND THEN, AN EFFORT TO IMPLEMENT 1701.

THE LEBANESE GOVERNMENT, SUCH AS IT IS, HAS ANNOUNCED THAT IT IS PREPARED TO SEND THE LEBANESE ARMY TO THE SOUTH, U.N. WOULD STRENGTHEN ITS PRESENCE, AND WE WOULD HAVE TO SEE IF THERE ARE AT LEAST THE MAKINGS OF AN INDEFINITE CALM IN THIS REGION.

BECAUSE THE COURSE THAT ISRAEL IS ON NOW IS SIMPLY NOT PRODUCING THE RESULTS IT SEEKS.

THE 60,000 ISRAELIS ARE NO CLOSER TO GOING HOME THAN THEY WERE ON OCTOBER 8th.

>> CAN I ASK YOU THIS, BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN -- HAVE BEEN LEAKS AND APPARENTLY THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION IS INVESTIGATING ABOUT THE IRAN SITUATION, LEAKS FROM PENTAGON DOCUMENTS, WHICH SEEM TO SUGGEST THEIR VIEWS, OR WHAT THEY'VE BEEN TOLD BY ISRAEL OR WHAT THEY'VE NOTICED ABOUT ISRAEL'S MILITARY AND ARMAMENT MANEUVERS, WHICH THEY THINK IS AHEAD OF A RETALIATION STRIKE THAT EVERYBODY'S WAITING FOR AGAINST IRAN.

AT THE SAME TIME, WE'VE HEARD -- WHETHER IT'S LEAKED OR WHETHER IT'S FACT, THAT ISRAEL SAYS THAT IT WILL HIT MILITARY TARGETS RATHER THAN OIL AND NUCLEAR SITES.

WHAT DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO HAPPEN, AND WHAT WILL THE RESULT BE?

WHAT -- WHAT CAN ISRAEL EXPECT BY STRIKING IRAN?

>> I CAN'T BEGIN TO PREDICT WHAT THE NATURE OF AN ISRAELI STRIKE WOULD BE.

WE HEARD, AS YOU SAY, THAT THEY HAVE TAKEN THE NUCLEAR AND OIL FACILITIES OFF THE TARGET LIST, BUT WHATEVER THEY DO STRIKE, ASSUMING IT'S A HARD-HITTING ONE, I THINK IT'S GOING TO PUSH THE CONVERSATION IN TEHRAN EVEN MORE SHARPLY TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAPABILITY.

BECAUSE WHAT WE'VE SEEN, WHAT THEY HAVE SEEN, CERTAINLY, IS THAT THEIR CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS AGAINST ISRAEL, THEIR BALLISTIC MISSILES, INTERMEDIATE RANGE, THAT LEAVES THEM -- I COULD IMAGINE THE ARGUMENT IN TEHRAN, WITH ONE VIABLE OPTION FOR REGIME SURVIVAL AND SECURITY, AND THAT IS THE NUCLEAR OPTION, SO, THE LONGER THIS CONFLICT PURSUES BETWEEN ISRAEL AND IRAN DIRECTLY, AND THE MORE IT INTENSIFIES, I THINK THE MORE LIKELY IT IS THAT IRAN WILL GO INTO OVERDRIVE IN THE EFFORT TO PRODUCE A NUCLEAR WEAPON.

>> WHICH WOULD BE COMPLETELY THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT THE WORLD WAS TRYING TO DO BEFORE THEY PULLED OUT -- THE AMERICANS PULLED OUT OF THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL.

SO, GIVEN THAT, GIVEN THAT THAT'S WHAT DID HAPPEN UNDER THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, WHAT DO YOU THINK, NOTICING EVERYTHING THAT'S BEEN GOING ON IN THIS YEAR, AS THE U.S. HAS TRIED TO EXERT INFLUENCE WHILE REMAINING A STEADFAST ALLY OF ISRAEL, THAT IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT THEY ARE BEING LISTENED TO.

AND EVEN AFTER KILLING SINWAR, I'M JUST GOING TO PLAY WHAT NETANYAHU SAID, GIVEN THAT BIDEN SAID IT SHOULD BE -- TAKE THE WIN AND TRY TO GET TO PEACE.

HERE'S WHAT NETANYAHU SAID.

>> Translator: NOW IT IS CLEAR TO EVERYONE IN ISRAEL AND IN THE WORLD WHY WE INSISTED ON NOT ENDING THE WAR, WHY WE DID INSIST IN THE FACE OF ALL THE PRESSURES TO ENTER RAFAH, THE FORTIFIED STRONGHOLD OF HAMAS, WHERE SINWAR AND MANY OF THE MURDERS HID.

>> SO, HE'S SAID IN THE FULL FLUSH OF THAT VICTORY FOR ISRAEL THAT THE WAR CONTINUES.

>> WELL, IF THAT'S WHAT HE'S SAYING, IT IS NOT GOING TO LEAD TO A DEFINITIVE VICTORY FOR ISRAEL OR FOR ANYONE ELSE -- >> NO, RYAN, AMBASSADOR, WHAT I MEANT WAS, DESPITE WHAT THE AMERICANS SAY, WHAT LEVERAGE CAN THEIR STRONGEST ALLY EXERT FOR, YOU KNOW, U.S. AND REGIONAL, NATIONAL INTERESTS?

>> WELL, I THINK THE ADMINISTRATION -- AND I'M NOT AN OVERALL FAN OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S FOREIGN POLICY.

I THINK WHAT THEY DID IN AFGHANISTAN IS SOMETHING THAT IS GOING TO HAUNT U.S. SECURITY INTERESTS FOR A VERY LONG TIME, BUT I THINK IN THE CASE OF THE GAZA CONFLICT, THEY HAVE PLAYED A -- A -- A DUBIOUS HAND EXCEPTIONALLY WELL.

I THINK THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION WAS RIGHT TO COME DOWN IMMEDIATELY AND WHOLEHEARTEDLY IN SUPPORT OF ISRAEL, BECAUSE AS I LOOK AT THE EVENTS OF THE LAST YEAR, THERE HAS BEEN -- THE WORD GENOCIDE HAS BEEN TOSSED AROUND A LOT.

THERE WAS ONLY ONE GENOCIDAL ACTION IN MY ESTIMATION, AND THAT WAS ON OCTOBER 7th ITSELF.

NOT IN ITS SCOPE, BUT IN ITS INTENT.

AND THE AFFECT OF THAT MASSACRE ON OCTOBER 7th LAST YEAR ON THE ISRAELI PSYCHE IS IMPOSSIBLE TO OVERESTIMATE.

THAT TO -- TO THINK THAT WE COULD OR SHOULD HAVE STOPPED WEAPONS DELIVERIES OR TAKEN OTHER PUNITIVE STEPS AGAINST ISRAEL WOULD HAVE BEEN, I THINK, MORALLY WRONG, BUT STRATEGICALLY WRONG.

IT WOULD HAVE PUSHED ISRAELI PUBLIC OPINION FARTHER INTO A CORNER.

IT'S THEM AGAINST THE WORLD, THEY CAN COUNT ON NO ONE INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES.

SO, THE ADMINISTRATION'S TAKEN A LOT OF GRIEF FOR ITS -- ITS SOLID SUPPORT OF ISRAEL.

I THINK THAT WAS THE RIGHT THING TO DO, BUT I ALSO THINK THAT THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT AND THE ISRAELI PEOPLE HAVE TO RECOGNIZE WHERE THEIR OWN INTERESTS LIE, AND THEY DO NOT LIE -- THERE IS NOTHING THAT THEY'RE GOING TO GAIN BY CONTINUING OPERATIONS INDEFINITELY IN GAZA.

YOU CANNOT KILL THEM ALL.

>> I HAVE 30 SECONDS LEFT.

DO YOU THINK NETANYAHU CAN RESHAPE THE MIDDLE EAST AS HIS -- HE AND HIS FACTION SAYS?

>> ABSOLUTELY NOT.

NOT IN THE WAY THAT HE WAS -- SEEMS TO BE INTENDING.

THE MIDDLE EAST WAS RESHAPED, ALL RIGHT, WITH ACTION IN 1982, BUT IT WAS NOT IN ISRAEL'S INTEREST.

>> AMBASSADOR RYAN CROCKER, THANK YOU.

YOUR DECADES OF EXPERTISE REALLY RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUBJECT THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT.

THANK YOU SO MUCH.

>>> THE WHOLE REGION AND BEYOND, OF COURSE, COULD BE PROFOUNDLY FURTHER IMPACTED IN JUST OVER TWO WEEKS, WHEN AMERICAN VOTERS CAST THEIR BALLOTS FOR THE NEXT PRESIDENT.

WITH JUST 15 DAYS TO GO, THE RACE IS TIGHTENING EVER FURTHER.

BOTH IN NATIONAL AND IN SWING STATES.

IT IS IN A DEAD HEAT, AS USUAL.

RIVAL CANDIDATES KAMALA HARRIS AND DONALD TRUMP ARE PACKING IN EVENTS AS THEY SPRINT TO THE FINISH LINE.

WHILE HARRIS HAS BROUGHT IN A RECORD HAUL OF DONATIONS, AND IS CAMPAIGNING WITH BIG-NAME REPUBLICANS LIKE LIZ CHENEY, DONALD TRUMP'S RHETORIC IS SEEMING TO BE TAKING A MIR ERRATIC AND VULGAR TURN.

BUT HOW WILL AMERICA'S PLACE IN THE WORLD CHANGE, AND IS THE WORLD PREPARING?

WELL, I RECENTLY DISCUSSED THAT, AND THE STAKES, WITH LESLIE GIN JA MURRAY OF CHATHAM HOUSE, AND THE DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST SIMON ROSENBERG, WHO IS IN WASHINGTON, D.C. >> LESLIE, SIMON, WELCOME BACK TO THE PROGRAM.

>> THANK YOU.

>> CAN I START WITH YOU, LESLIE, BECAUSE PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS BEEN OVERSEAS, THERE'S A LOT GOING ON.

AND OBVIOUSLY, THE WORLD IS LOOKING AT THE NEXT PRESIDENT, AND WHAT IT WILL MEAN.

WHAT DO YOU THINK OF -- OF WHAT THE ALLIES ARE THINKING?

FOR INSTANCE, WILL THERE BE ANOTHER G7?

>> I THINK PEOPLE ARE VERY CONCERNED IF DONALD TRUMP WERE TO BE ELECTED WHETHER THERE WOULD BE A G7, SOME PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT HOW TO MOVE AHEAD, EVEN IF DONALD TRUMP WAS ELECTED, DOESN'T WISH TO PARTICIPATE, TURNS OUT TO BE A DISRUPTIVE FORCE.

SO, NOW -- I GUESS THE KEY THING IS, AMERICA'S PARTNERS AND AMERICA'S ALLIES UNDERSTAND WHAT COULD BE COMING.

THIS IS WHAT MAKES IT VERY, VERY DIFFERENT FROM 2016, AS WE ALL KNOW.

THEY ARE PREPARING.

WE HAVE BEEN TRAVELING ACROSS ASIA, EUROPE, AND LATIN AMERICA, CHATHAM HOUSE HAS BEEN FIELDING TEAMS OF FORMER U.S. GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, EXPERTS, MEETING WITH GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS IN-COUNTRY, AND WE'VE BEEN ASTONISHED AT HOW WELL PREPARED PEOPLE ARE, HOW MUCH THEY'RE THINKING ABOUT IT, AND ESPECIALLY VERY HIGH LEVEL OF PRAGUE MATISM IN EVERYWHERE BUT EUROPE.

IN EUROPE, PEOPLE ARE DISTRESSED, CONCERNED.

THERE'S A LEVEL OF EXCITEMENT AND NOT IN A GOOD WAY.

>> ANXIETY.

>> JUST BEFORE I TURN TO SIMON, SO, WHAT SORT OF PRAGMATIC STEPS ARE THE OTHER PART OF THE WORLD TAKING?

>> WELL, I THINK, FIRST OF ALL, TAKE MEXICO.

THERE'S A RECOGNITION, THEY WORKED OUT HOW TO WORK WITH DONALD TRUMP.

THEY RENEGOTIATED NAFTA, THEY GOT THE NEW USMCA, THE TRADE ACCORD.

THEY UNDERSTAND THAT THERE WERE SOME BETTER PARTS TO THAT, THE LABOR RIGHTS THAT WERE IN THAT AGREEMENT.

SO, THEY COULD SEE, YOU KNOW, THAT THEY HAD EXPERIENCE, THEY'RE STEELED FOR IT.

BUT THERE'S ALSO A SIGNALING THING GOING ON HERE.

KNOWING THAT WE'RE GOING TO COME BACK, WE'RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT THIS.

THE JAPANESE LEADERS WE MET WITH ALL SAID, WE'RE PREPARED TO WORK WITH ANYBODY.

THIS IS INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT, WE'LL WORK WITH TRUMP OR WITH HARRIS.

THE OTHER THING THAT REALLY CAME OUT IN SPADES, THOUGH, IS THE DEEP DISAPPOINTMENT ACROSS BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE WITH WHAT AMERICA HAS TO OFFER WHEN IT COMES TO ECONOMIC POLICY.

MARKET ACCESS.

THEY UNDERSTAND, I THINK, THAT THIS COULD BE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT, DISRUPTIVE, WITH A TRUMP ADMINISTRATION THAT WE'LL SEE A RETURN TO THE TARIFF WARS, THE INSTABILITY, THE RHETORIC, THE LANGUAGE, THE STYLE OF DIPLOMACY WOULD BE DIFFICULT.

BUT THERE'S NO REAL OPTIMISM THAT A BIDEN ADMINISTRATION IS GOING TO START OPENING ITS MARKETS -- >> BIDEN.

>> SORRY.

HARRIS ADMINISTRATION.

AND THAT -- THAT'S A VERY INTERESTING SLIP ON MY PART, RIGHT?

BECAUSE THERE IS A SORT OF, YOU KNOW, IMPLICIT CONVERSATION, WILL THERE BE MUCH DIFFERENCE?

WE DIDN'T SEE -- I THINK THERE WILL BE A DIFFERENCE -- >> BETWEEN BIDEN AND HARRIS.

>> WE DIDN'T SEE AMERICA'S PARTNERS AND ALLIES THINKING THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT.

SO, THEY'RE ASSESSING IT AS CONTINUITY ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE.

>> ALL RIGHT, SO, SIMON, THEN, BECAUSE YOU ARE AN INSIDER'S INSIDER, IS IT A GOOD OR A BAD THING THAT THE PERCEPTION, AT LEAST OVERSEAS, IS THAT THERE WOULDN'T BE MUCH DIFFERENCE?

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT, SAID, I WILL NOT BE A CONTINUATION OF THE BIDEN PRESIDENCY.

WHAT DOES SHE MEAN?

>> WELL, IT'S ALMOST SORT OF AN OBVIOUS THING, RIGHT?

OF COURSE SHE'S GOING TO PURSUE HER OWN COURSE.

AND AS WE WOULD EXPECT ANY PRESIDENT TO DO, I MEAN, YOU KNOW, MAYBE BECAUSE SHE'S A WOMAN, SHE'S BEING EXPECTED JUST TO FOLLOW THE GUY IN WHAT HE'S DOING.

INMEAN, OBVIOUS LIP SHE'S GOING TO PURSUE HER OWN COURSE.

AND I THINK THAT SHE'S ALREADY LAID OUT A SERIES OF THINGS THAT SHE'S WANTED TO DO DOMESTICALLY, LIKE TACKLE THE HOUSING CRISIS IN THE UNITED STATES, ARE THINGS THAT JUST DIDN'T GET DONE IN THE BIDEN ERA.

SHE'S GOT A NEW SET OF CHALLENGES THAT BIDEN -- AND IT'S GOING TO BE A VERY DIFFERENT ADMINISTRATION.

ONE OF THE REASONS I'M A LITTLE BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC IS THAT VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS WHO I'VE KNOWN FOR 20 YEARS, COMES OUT OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, SILICON VALLEY, THE BOOMING ECONOMY, SHE'S TALKING A LOT ABOUT ENTREPRENEUR SHIP AND SMALL BUSINESSES, AND IT'S A VERY DIFFERENT LANGUAGE, I THINK, THAN WHAT -- HOW PRESIDENT BIDEN OFTEN TALKED ABOUT THE ECONOMY.

I THINK WE SHOULD EXPECT HER TO HAVE -- TO BE DRAWING MORE FROM THE EXPERIENCE SHE HAD AS BEING IN ONE OF THE ECONOMIC DYNAMOS OF THE WORLD IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND UNDERSTANDING INNOVATION, ENTREPRENEURSHIP, AS A MORE CENTRAL THEME OF HER ADMINISTRATION, IF SHE WINS.

AND I THINK SHE WILL WIN.

I MEAN, HER RHETORIC AROUND THE ECONOMY IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM BIDEN'S, AND I THINK IT'S MUCH MORE TIED TO HER OPTIMISM, UPWARD MOBILITY, YOU KNOW, THIS LINE SHE HAS ABOUT HOW SHE WANTS PEOPLE NOT TO JUST GET BY, BUT GET AHEAD, IS VERY IN SYNCH WITH WHERE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY'S BEEN OVER THE LAST 30, 40 YEARS.

>> SIMON, I NEED TO ASK YOU, YOU SEEM TO BE CONFIDENT, AND CERTAINLY YOU HAVE YOUR BLOG, WHERE YOU ARE JUST RADIAING HOPE AND CHANGE AND ALL THE REST OF IT.

>> OPTIMISM.

>> THERE YOU GO.

THERE YOU GO.

SOME PEOPLE SAY, WHAT ARE YOU SNIFFING?

SORRY, I DON'T KNOW IF I SHOULD ACTUALLY SAY THAT.

BUT WHY ARE YOU SO OPTIMISTIC, GIVEN THAT IT'S SO INCREDIBLY KNIFE EDGE RIGHT NOW, THAT WE ARE INUNDATED WITH HORROR STORIES OF HOW THE BLACK VOTE IS BEING WHITTLED AWAY, MOVING TOWARDS TRUMP, THE LATINO VOTE TO AN EXTENT.

WHY ARE YOU SO HOPEFUL, AND HOW DO YOU ANALYZE THOSE PARTICULAR DEMOGRAPHICS?

>> YEAH, SO, THREE THINGS, RIGHT?

ONE IS, IN THE POLLING TODAY, WE HAVE A MODEST LEAD NATIONALLY, AFTER HAVING -- WHEN THE VICE PRESIDENT GOT INTO THE RACE, WE WERE DOWN BY THREE POINTS, WE'RE NOW UP BY ABOUT THREE POINTS.

WE HAVE A MODEST ADVANTAGE IN THE BATTLEGROUND STATES, CLOSER TO 270 THAN DONALD TRUMP IS.

AND I THINK THAT THE CONFIDENCE THAT WE HAVE IS THAT, A, SINCE THE DOBBS DECISION IN THE SPRING OF 2022, DEMOCRATS HAVE CONTINUALLY OVERPERFORMING POLLING AND EXPECTATIONS.

REPUBLICANS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED POLLING AND PUBLIC EXPECTATIONS.

THAT THERE IS THIS RETICENCE, AS THERE WAS IN EUROPE AND FRANCE, TO VOTE FOR THE FAR RIGHT WHEN IT CAME TO THE DAY OF ACTUALLY VOTING.

AND YOU'VE SEEN THIS INCREDIBLE, UNPRECEDENTED EFFORT BY REPUBLICANS AND BY FORMER REPUBLICANS, TO PUSH REPUBLICANS TOWARDS HARRIS, AND I THINK IT'S GOING TO MATTER ON ELECTION DAY.

BUT THE SECOND REASON, I THINK, WE HAVE QUIET CONFIDENCE AND MUCH RATHER BE US THAN THEM IS THAT WE JUST HAVE MUCH MORE MONEY AND A FAR MORE SOPHISTICATED GROUND GAME TO CLOSE STRONG IN THESE FINAL FEW WEEKS.

I MEAN, IT'S CLOSE NOW, BUT IF ONE OF THE TWO PARTIES IS LIKELY TO PUSH THE ELECTION TOWARDS THEM, IT'S US, BECAUSE OF OUR ADVANTAGES IN TERMS OF, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE MORE ADS ON THE AIR, GOING TO BE TALKING TO VOTERS MORE, AND OUR CANDIDATE IS MUCH MORE POPULAR AND IS SEEN AS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE AND LIKABLE THAN THEIR CANDIDATE.

AND IN THE END, THAT'S WHERE YOU WOULD RATHER BE, BUT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE GET TO DECIDE, AND WE JUST HAVE TO WORK OUR BUTTS OFF, AND DO THE BEST WE CAN, BUT I FEEL IN EVERY BONE IN MY BODY, 30-PLUS YEARS IN THIS BUSINESS, I WOULD MUCH RATHER BE US THAN THEM AT THIS POINT.

>> OKAY, THAT'S A NICE WAY TO PUT IT, I WAS GOING TO SAY, YOU'RE THE GUY ALSO WHO TOLD US, OH, NO, THERE'S NOTHING THERE, BIDEN'S FINE, YOU KNOW, HE SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE, ET CETERA.

>> YEAH.

LISTEN, I MEAN, WE HAD JOE BIDEN -- I SPOKE TO ONE OF THE SENIOR CAMPAIGN PEOPLE ON THE CAMPAIGN TWO DAYS BEFORE THE DEBATE, WHO SAID HE WAS DOING UNBELIEVABLY WELL IN THE DEBATE PERFORMANCES.

AND IT DIDN'T HAPPEN.

AND WE MADE A CHANGE.

AND I THINK IT WAS A SIGN OF MATURITY OF A POLITICAL PARTY THAT WHEN WE NEEDED TO MAKE A CHANGE AND DID SO IN A VERY GRACEFUL MANNER, AND EFFECTIVE MANNER, THAT WE ARE WHERE WE ARE NOW, AND THE VICE PRESIDENT, AGAIN, I'M GOING JUST BASED ON DATA AND FACTS HERE, RIGHT?

I'M NOT GOING BEYOND ANY OF THAT.

COULD WE LOSE, OF COURSE WE COULD LOSE, BUT I THINK IT'S FAR MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT THAT WE WIN.

>> VERY INTERESTING.

SO, LESLIE, I WANT TO ASK YOU, AND I'M AFRAID IT IS A RELEVANT ISSUE, THE WHOLE MENTAL ACUITY THING, BECAUSE NOW KAMALA HARRIS IS SO FAR -- WELL, SHE'S RECENTLY TWEETED, "HOPE HE'S OKAY," THIS IS DONALD TRUMP, AND, YOU KNOW, STRANGE PERFORMANCES AT VARIOUS, YOU KNOW, THE BOPPING AND THE HEAD NODDING, AND THE CONSTANT DOUBLING DOWN OVER HAITIANS EATING PETS AND ALL THE REST OF IT.

JUST -- WHAT DOES THE WORLD THINK OF DONALD TRUMP'S MENTAL ACUITY?

I MEAN, THEY ARE PROOFING THEMSELVES IN ONE WAY, BUT WHAT DO THEY THINK ABOUT HIS FITNESS, HIS MENTAL FITNESS?

>> YOU KNOW, PEOPLE HAVE SEEN THIS, THEY'RE USED TO THIS.

THEY UNDERSTAND THAT SOME THINGS LOOK NASTIER.

IT'S SOMETIMES HARD TO TELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NASTY DONALD TRUMP RHETORIC AND METAL ACUITY AND DECLINE.

I DON'T THINK WE'RE ALL EQUIPPED TO MAKE THAT JUDGMENT.

BUT I THINK AT THE END OF THE DAY, PEOPLE UNDERSTAND, THIS IS SUCH A DIVIDED ELECTION.

THERE IS SUCH A STOICISM, EVEN IF THERE IS AN ACUITY PROBLEM, IT DOESN'T REALLY MATTER.

WE HAVE A COUNTRY THAT SPENDS $900 BILLION A YEAR ON ITS -- ON ITS DEFENSE BUDGET, A LOT OF THAT GOES OVERSEAS, THERE IS A NEED FOR ACCESS TO THE AMERICAN ECONOMY.

PEOPLE TALK ABOUT WORKING AROUND A TRUMP AMERICA, OR HAVING ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS, BUT WHEN YOU REALLY START TO LOOK AT WHAT THAT MEANS, THERE ISN'T A LOT OF CHOICE.

I THINK PEOPLE ARE REALLY CONCERNED THAT A SECOND TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WILL BE -- WON'T HAVE THE GROWNUPS IN THE ROOM.

WE KNOW THE STORY, IT WON'T HAVE THE SORT OF RATIONAL PEOPLE AROUND THE OUTER CIRCLES, THAT THERE IS A PLAN, PEOPLE STILL THINK THAT NOW EVERYBODY KNOWS ABOUT PROJECT 2025, THE GREAT IRONY, THE FORMER PRESIDENT HAS DIVORCED HIMSELF FROM THE PLAN, EVERYBODY ELSE THINKS IT IS THE PLAN.

AND SO, THEY ARE WORRIED.

THEY'RE WORRIED THAT NOT ONLY THE MENTAL ACUITY, THE FITNESS OF THE MAN, THE AGE OF THE MAN, BUT THE DIRECTION OF TRAVEL IN AMERICA'S DEMOCRACY AND AMERICA'S LEADERSHIP WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR THEM TO MANAGE, BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE.

>> BUT HOW DO THEY THINK OF, FOR INSTANCE, THEY MAY NOT HAVE ANY CHOICE, BUT FOUR YEARS OF TRUMP SHOWED THAT A DESIRE OR A CLAIM TO FIX HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH NORTH KOREA FAILED.

THAT, TO PUT, QUOTE UNQUOTE, MAXIMUM PRESSURE AND GET A BETTER DEAL OUT OF IRAN BY COMING OUT OF THE JCPO AND NUCLEAR DEAL FAILED.

THAT HE SAYS HE WILL SOLVE RUSSIA/UKRAINE, YOU KNOW, EVEN BEFORE HE'S INAUGURATED.

NOBODY CAN SEE A PATH TO THAT, EXCEPT FOR FORCING UKRAINE TO SU SURRENDER.

>> YEAH.

SO, ON THOSE MATTERS OF NATIONAL AND GLOBAL SECURITY.

NOT TO MENTION THE MIDDLE EAST, WHERE HE DID HELP ENABLE SOME VERY FAR-RIGHT MEMBERS OF THE ISRAELI, YOU KNOW, BODY POLITIC, HOW DO THEY LOOK AT THE VERY SECURITY OF THE WORLD THAT WE'RE LIVING IN?

>> I THINK THAT, YOU KNOW, YOU SORT OF PUT YOUR FINGER ON ONE OF THE BIG ISSUES THAT CAME UP IN ALL OF OUR MEETINGS, THERE'S BEEN A RELATIVE QUIET ON THE QUESTION OF NORTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR ABILITY AND INTENTIONS.

WE KNOW NORTH KOREA'S EMBOLDENED NOW WITH ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA.

EVERYBODY ACROSS NORTHEAST ASIA IS CONCERNED ABOUT THIS, ESPECIALLY CONCERNED, BACK ON THE TABLE IN THE NEXT U.S. ADMINISTRATION, REGARDLESS OF WHO IT IS.

AND THEY UNDERSTAND THAT DONALD TRUMP TRIED TO MOVE THE NEEDLE AND FAILED.

AND, IN FACT, YOU KNOW, NUCLEAR ABILITIES IF ANYTHING WENT UP IN NORTH KOREA.

BUT AGAIN -- >> AND IN IRAN.

>> AND IN IRAN.

BUT AGAIN, WHAT ARE THEY DOING TO PREPARE?

IT'S VERY UNCLEAR THAT THERE'S AN EASY SOLUTION TO THAT.

WE KNOW THAT THERE IS A CONVERSATION IN SEOUL ABOUT WHETHER EVENTUALLY TO CONSIDER HAVING A NUCLEAR CAPACITY OF THEIR OWN, ALL OF THOSE CONVERSATIONS ARE ONGOING.

>> THE WORLD IS BECOMING A LESS SAFE PLACE.

>> LESS SAFE.

BUT IT'S REALLY -- THE ONE WHERE THE DIFFERENCE SEEMS TO BE SO CLEAR AND SO STARK IS ON THE QUEST OF U.S. SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE AND, IMPORTANTLY, WHAT AMERICA'S POLICY WOULD BE WITH RESPECT TO RUSSIA.

IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT DEFENDING UKRAINE.

IT'S THE BROADER QUESTION OF U.S. AND RUSSIA, AND THIS IS WHERE EVERYBODY KNOWS IT COULD BE VERY, VERY DIFFICULT.

AND THE EUROPEANS DON'T HAVE A GOOD PLAN.

THE EUROPEANS ARE DIVIDED, THEY HAVE THEIR OWN INTERNAL CONCERNS WITH THEIR OWN DEMOCRACIES.

>> THEY KNOW THEY HAVE TO SUPPORT UKRAINE AGAINST RUSSIA.

>> IT'S A DIFFICULT THING TO DELIVER WITHOUT THE UNITED STATES.

>> IT SURE IS.

AND SIMON, WE SAW BOTH CANDIDATES GOING, AS I SAID, KIND OF OUT OF THEIR COMFORT ZONE.

PRESIDENT TRUMP WENT TO UNIVISION TO HAVE AN IMMIGRATION TOWN HALL, THAT'S NOT HIS, YOU KNOW, MOST FRIENDLY VENUE.

VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS WENT TO FOX NEWS.

DO YOU THINK EITHER OF THEM ACTUALLY SCORED SOME -- THE POINTS THAT THEY WANTED TO SCORE WITH THE VOTERS THEY NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUTSIDE THEIR BASE?

>> FIRST OF ALL, WE'RE IN THE FINAL FEW WEEKS OF THE CAMPAIGN, I MEAN, INTENSITY NOW, THE DAY-TO-DAY HERE, IS INCREDIBLE.

THERE'S JUST SO MUCH COMING AT US EVERY DAY.

THE VICE PRESIDENT IS WORKING UNBELIEVABLY HARD AND IS DOING EVERY POSSIBLE MEDIA VENUE, TRAVELING TO ALL THE BATTLEGROUND STATES.

SHE IS -- HER SCHEDULE, AND NOW, WE'VE SEEN BARACK OBAMA JOIN THE TRAIL, BILL CLINTON NOW IS CAMPAIGNING AGGRESSIVELY IN ADDITION TO, YOU KNOW, OUR VICE PRESIDENT, SO -- NOMINEE, GOVERNOR WALZ.

SO, THE LEVEL OF INTENSITY IN THIS ELECTION HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY.

AND I THINK WHAT YOU HAVE TO UNDERSTAND ABOUT THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN IS, THEY ARE TRYING TO GET EVERY VOTE.

THEY'RE SPEAKING TO EVERY DEMOGRAPHIC.

THEY HAVE TARGETED THINGS TOWARDS YOUNG BLACK MEN, THEY ARE -- THEY DID THE UNIVISION DEBATE TO SPEAK TO LATINO VOTERS IN ARIZONA.

THEY DID A HUGE SERIES OF EVENTS TALKING TO REPUBLICANS IN THE BATTLEGROUND STATES.

THEY ARE TRYING TO GROW THEIR COALITION AND MAKE SURE THAT WE WIN THE ELECTION.

AND I WILL TELL YOU, I THINK THEY'RE DOING A REALLY GOOD JOB.

DONALD TRUMP, YOU KNOW, IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS, HAS BEEN UNRAVELING.

HIS PUBLIC PERFORMANCES HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE ERRATIC AND WILD THAN THEY'VE BEEN IN SOME TIME.

EUROPEANS SHOULD BE RIGHT TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS IF DONALD TRUMP BECOMES THE PRESIDENT, BECAUSE HE IS WORKING, LITERALLY, TO END THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AS WE KNOW IT THAT HAS KEPT US PROSPEROUS.

TOLL END THE WESTERN ALLIANCE.

AND HE'S WORKING TO END AMERICAN DEMOCRACY.

THE LEVEL OF THREAT TO THE SYSTEM THAT WE'VE KNOWN SINCE THE 1940s IS UNPRECEDENTED, AND IT'S WHY I THINK YOU'RE SEEING ALL OF US WORK SO HARD HERE.

>> JUST TO BE CLEAR, I NEED TO DEFINE, WHEN YOU SAY END THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, YOU MEAN BY THE MASSIVE PROTECTIONISM AND THE MASSIVE TARIFFS?

>> YEAH, THE TARIFFS WOULD UNRAVEL THE ENTIRE GLOBAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM THAT WAS PUT INTO PLACE AFTER WORLD WAR II.

IT SEEMS TO BE -- I DESCRIBE TRUMP AS A RUSSIAN-BACKED WRECKING BALL AGAINST THE WEST AND EVERYTHING THAT'S MADE THE WEST SUCCESSFUL.

AND SO, I THINK TO -- IT WOULD BE NAIVE, I THINK, BECAUSE WITH TRUMP, IT'S AS THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO, RIGHT?

AND I THINK IT WOULD BE NAIVE TO VIEW WHAT HE'S DOING IS NOT PUTTING A THREAT ON THAT.

AND SO, YOU KNOW, WE -- WE UNDERSTAND THE STAKES HERE, AND I THINK IT'S WHY YOU'VE SEEN THE VICE PRESIDENT IN HER PUBLIC COMMENTS RAISE THE QUESTIONS OF HIS -- HOW UNHINGED AND UNWELL THAT HE'S BEEN, THE THREAT THAT HE REALLY MEANS TO AMERICAN DEMOCRACY AND TO OUR FREE TOMS.

I THINK SHE'S REALLY RACHETED THAT UP, IN AN APPROPRIATE WAY, BECAUSE I THINK SHE'S BEING HONEST WITH THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ABOUT THE THREAT THAT'S IN FRONT OF US, AND PEOPLE DESERVE TO KNOW THIS BEFORE THEY GO INTO THE VOTING BOOTH.

>> AND YET, LESLIE, HE DOES HAVE A HIGHER POLLING ON THE ECONOMY AND BLACK AND LATINO VOTERS ARE MIGRATING TOWARDS HIM.

HOW DOES THE WORLD PROCESS THAT?

>> AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTERS, BLACK VOTERS ARE STILL VASTLY IN SUPPORT OF -- >> YES, I KNOW, BUT THE MARGINS.

>> AND THE MEN IN PARTICULAR.

IT'S A CONCERN, WE'VE SEEN THAT.

BUT YOU KNOW, MY CONCERN IS THAT THE WHITE VOTERS, AND -- WE SEE A SPLIT ALONG GENDER LINES, BUT THAT SPLIT ALONG EDUCATIONAL LINES CONTINUES TO BE REALLY SIGNIFICANT, EVEN AMONGST WHITE WOMEN.

WHITE WOMEN WHO HAVEN'T GONE TO COLLEGE, VERY SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF THEM SUPPORT DONALD TRUMP.

WHITE WOMEN WHO HAVE GONE TO COLLEGE SUPPORT HARRIS' CAMPAIGN.

SO, IT IS AN EDUCATIONAL SPLIT THAT -- BUT WHEN KAMALA HARRIS GOES ON FOX NEWS, THE MOST IMPORTANT THIN I THINK SHE'S DOING IS TRYING TO MOTIVATE WHITE AMERICAN VOTERS.

IT'S ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL.

WE TALK ABOUT GETTING OUT THE MINORITY VOTE, THE DEMOCRATS DO, IT'S KEY, BUT REALLY GETTING THE WHITE VOTERS THAT ARE REGISTERED FOR DEMOCRATS IN THE THREE RUST BELT STATES WE'RE TALKING AT, JUST UNDER, 80%, OF REGISTERED VOTERS ARE WHITE AMERICANS.

IT'S MORE WHITE THAN THE REST OF THE COUNTRY.

SO, YOU CANNOT LEAVE -- WE TALK ABOUT DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, WE TALK ABOUT, YOU KNOW, THE COLORING OF AMERICA, BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, YOU'VE GOT TO HAVE WHITE AMERICAN VOTERS BEHIND YOU.

AND YOU HAVE TO HAVE WHITE MEN BEHIND YOU, AS WELL.

>> JUST FASCINATING.

LESLIE, SIMON, THANK YOU BOTH VERY MUCH, INDEED.

>> THANK YOU.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH, CHRISTIANE.

>>> AND STILL OVERSEAS, TALKING ABOUT DEMOCRACY AND FREEDOM, ANOTHER FORMER SOVIET REPUBLIC HAS MADE A MOVE TO BREAK FREE OF MOSCOW'S CONTINUING CONTROL.

MOLDOVA HAS VOTED IN FAVOR OF JOINING THE EUROPEAN UNION.

IN A REFERENDUM, WHICH WAS MUCH CLOSER THAN EXPECTED, PRESIDENT MAIA SANDU HAS BLAMED FOREIGN INTERESTS FOR UNDERMINING THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS.

PRESIDENT PUTIN PERSONALLY INTERVENED TO BLOCK UKRAINE'S VOTE FOR A CLOSER ASSOCIATION WITH THE EU BACK IN 2013.

U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY LLOYD AUSTIN IS IN KYIV TODAY, ANNOUNCING NEARLY HALF A BILLION DOLLARS IN NEW MILITARY AID FOR THE COUNTRY.

BUT MY NEXT GUEST WARNS THAT A TRUMP WIN IN NOVEMBER COULD PUT ALL OF THAT AT RISK.

RETIRED LIEUTENANT COLONEL ALEXANDER VINDMAN WAS DIRECTOR FOR EUROPEAN AFFAIRS ON THE U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL.

HE ALSO TESTIFIED DURING TRUMP'S IMPEACHMENT CASE.

AND HE SPEAKS TO WALTER ISAACSON.

>> WELCOME BACK TO THE SHOW.

>> PLEASURE TO BE ON WITH YOU.

>> I LOVED YOUR PIECE IN "FOREIGN AFFAIRS," AND IT WAS VERY TOUGH, BUT IT SAID, WHAT CAN BE DONE IN UKRAINE?

WHAT CAN UKRAINE DO, WHAT SHOULD WE DO WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRUMP COMING BACK INTO OFFICE?

IF DONALD TRUMP COMES BACK INTO OFFICE, WHAT WILL THAT MEAN FOR UKRAINE, AND HOW CAN THEY PROCEED WITH THIS WAR?

>> YOU KNOW, IT'S -- THAT PIECE WAS WRITTEN BECAUSE THERE WAS A REQUEST FROM SENIOR POLICYMAKERS, FOLKS SERVING IN GOVERNMENT, FOR A THEORY FOR VICTORY FOR UKRAINE.

WE DON'T HAVE ONE.

WE HAVE A POLICY WHICH SAYS THAT WE'LL FOLLOW THE UKRAINIANS' LEAD, BUT THAT IS NOT ALWAYS IN THE U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY INTEREST.

SO, I DO -- I DID WHAT I DID IN U.S. GOVERNMENT, I WROTE A STRATEGY FOR RUSSIA, THE NATIONAL MILITARY STRATEGY, SO, I PUT TOGETHER A STRATEGY, FEASIBLE, VIABLE, REALISTIC STRATEGY FOR UKRAINE, THAT LOOKS A YEAR OUT, HOW WE GET UKRAINE IN THE BEST POSITION TO COMPEL PUTIN TO END THE WAR, AND TOLL SEEK FOR PEACE.

WHAT I SETTLED ON WAS A COMBINATION OF WHAT THE U.S. CAN DO, WHAT THE WEST CAN DO, THE NATO MEMBER STATES, DEMOCRACIES, AND UKRAINE, EVERYBODY HAS TO PITCH IN, IN ORDER TO HELP END THIS GEOPOLITICAL EARTHQUAKE, WHICH IS THE RUSSIAN/UKRAINE WAR.

>> YOU'VE JUST SAID SOMETHING THAT WAS INTERESTING, WHICH IS THAT THE STRATEGY NOW HAS BEEN TO FOLLOW UKRAINE'S LEAD.

AND THEY HAVE A PLAN FOR VICTORY THAT PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY JUST PRESENTED TO THE PARLIAMENT.

BUT THEN YOU SAID, NO, WE HAVE TO DO WHAT'S IN OUR INTEREST, NOT JUST FOLLOW THEIR LEAD.

EXPLAIN THE DISTINCTION.

>> SO, THAT -- THAT'S REALLY WHAT HE ANNOUNCED IS REALLY NOT THAT DISSIMILAR TO WHAT HE BRIEFED TO THE U.S., TO PRESIDENT BIDEN AND VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS WHEN HE VISITED HERE FOR THE U.N. GENERAL ASSEMBLY.

REALLY, WE ALWAYS NEED TO REMEMBER THAT WE ARE A SOVEREIGN STATE, OUR FUNDAMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY IS TO THE AMERICAN PUBLIC.

SO, WE -- WE ARE HELPING UKRAINE NOT BECAUSE IT'S SIMPLY IN UKRAINE'S INTERESTS, BUT BECAUSE IT'S IN OUR MUTUAL INTERESTS.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

THAT MEANS UKRAINE'S SECURITY IS TETHERED TO THE SECURITY OF EUROPE, IT'S TETHERED TO GLOBAL SECURITY.

GEOPOLITICS.

THAT'S WHY I SPENT SO MUCH TIME IN THIS THEORY OF VICTORY, TALKING ABOUT THE -- THIS PRECIPICE THAT WE'RE ON THAT WILL DECIDE THE FATE OF NOT JUST THE U.S., BUT THE WORLD, ON NOVEMBER 5th.

SCENARIO IN WHICH YOU HAVE HARRIS IN CERTAIN WAYS CONTINUING ON OR BRANCHING OFF AND MAYBE BEING MORE FULLSOME IN SUPPORT OF UKRAINE, OR A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT WORLD, WHERE YOU HAVE DONALD TRUMP ABANDONING THE WORLD, WITH AN AMERICA FIRST STRATEGY, BUT THAT EVEN IN ITSELF IS -- IS A MISUNDERSTANDING, BUT IT'S NOT AMERICA FIRST, IT'S TRUMP FIRST.

AND THAT MEANS WE ABANDON OUR ALLIANCES, WE ARE FRIENDS TO OUR ADVERSARIES, AND THREATS TO OUR FRIENDS.

AND THAT'S WHY IT'S SO CRITICAL THAT THE -- UKRAINIANS AND THE EUROPEANS START HEDGING NOW, THEY START PLANNING FOR THIS WORST CASE SCENARIO, WHERE THEY HAVE TO GO IT ALONE AND INCREASINGLY AGGRESSIVE RUSSIA, ALREADY ACTIVE IN THIS HYBRID -- JUST BELOW THE LEVEL OF FULL-ARM ED CONFLICT MEANS ATTACKINGINFRASTRUCTURE, HAS TO BE WARNED OFF, HAS TO BE DETERRED.

BUT WHAT GETS US TO A PEACE SETTLEMENT IS ACTUALLY THE U.S.

BEING THERE, AND THAT MEANS A HARRIS ADMINISTRATION.

THAT'S WHY THIS IS SO IMPORTANT, THAT THE AMERICAN PUBLIC WEIGHS IN AND DETERMINES ITS FUTURE, A BRIGHTER, MORE PROSPEROUS FUTURE, OR ONE THAT'S HIGHLY REGRESSIVE, ISOLATIONIST, AND VERY STARK DEPARTURE FROM ANY POINT WE'VE BEEN IN OUR RECENT HISTORY.

>> WELL, YOU TALK ABOUT WHAT WOULD BE THE THEORY OF VICTORY WE COULD HAVE IF FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP DOES WIN.

TELL ME, WHAT THEORY OF VICTORY IS THERE IF PRESIDENT TRUMP WINS AND U.S. SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE IS CUT OFF?

>> IT IS -- IT IS MORE OF -- IT BECOMES LESS A THEORY OF VICTORY AND MORE OF A SURVIVAL.

BECAUSE THE WORLD AS A WHOLE WILL REGRESS TO SOMETHING THAT WE HAVEN'T SEEN IN A LONG TIME, PRE-WORLD WAR II, WHERE THE STRONG PREY ON THE WEAK, THE RULES OF THE JUNGLE.

IN THAT KIND OF SCENARIO, YOU'LL STILL HAVE ALLIANCES THAT WILL COALESCE, ABSENCE THE U.S.

BACKBONE, THAT MEANS NATO MINUS THE U.S., WHICH HAS BEEN ALREADY INVESTING IN MASSIVE RESOURCES TO BOLSTER ITS DEFENSE, 23 NATIONS NOW MEET THAT THRESHOLD OF 2% SPENDING.

THEY'RE ALREADY DOUBLING DOWN ON WHAT THEY NEED TO DO TO DEFEND THEMSELVES, WARN OFF ADVERSARIES, BUT THE U.S. IS REALLY THE BACKBONE.

SO, WHAT YOU HAVE IS A MUCH MORE KIND OF EVENLY WEIGHED STRUGGLE BETWEEN AUTHORITARIANISM AND DEMOCRACIES, ABSENT THE U.S., WHICH IS IN A MUCH MORE AMBIGUOUS PLACE.

EUROPE WILL HAVE TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEFENDING ITS OWN INTERESTS, BUT SEEMINGLY, WITH THE OPPORTUNITY FOR RUSSIA TO WIN, TO EXPLOIT EASTERN AND WESTERN EUROPE.

SO, YOU HAVE A MIX, WHERE I FORECAST IT'S ACTUALLY A MIX FOR A SPILLOVER IN THE CONFLICT.

EUROPEANS WILL HAVE TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE.

THEY'LL POUR RESOURCES INTO UKRAINE AND RUSSIA WILL DO THE SAME IN REVERSE.

AND IT'S MUCH MORE -- WE DON'T LIKE FAIR FIGHTS.

WE WANT TO BE -- WE WANT TO HAVE THE UPPER HAND, AND THE U.S.

BEING ABSENT, THE U.S.

WITHDRAWING, GIVES OUR ADVERSARIES MUCH MORE OF AN EVENT FIGHT TO -- TO PRESS THEIR ADVANTAGE.

>> YOU TALK ABOUT A SPILLOVER, IF ALL OF THIS HAPPENS, IT KEEPS SPREADING.

ISN'T THAT DEEPLY AGAINST AMERICA'S NATIONAL INTEREST?

>> IT IS.

THIS IS WHAT I'VE TRIED TO -- STRUGGLED WITH COMMUNICATING TO THE AMERICAN PUBLIC AT LARGE.

DONALD TRUMP IS NOT A PEACEMAKER.

HE IS NOT THE PERSON THAT'S GOING TO AVOID WORLD WAR III.

MY NEXT BOOK THAT COMES OUT, I TALK ABOUT THE FACT THAT WE CAN'T BE OVERLY TRANSACTIONAL.

WE CAN'T BE SHORTSIGHTED AND LOOK AT THESE IDEAS OF -- IN EACH SITUATION, MINIMIZING RISK, BECAUSE IT ACTUALLY DOESN'T WORK.

WHEN THOSE -- WHEN YOU DO THAT CONSISTENTLY, YOU ACTUALLY INVITE OPPORTUNISM, AGGRESSION, BUILD A SENSE OF IMMUNITY.

YOU HAVE TO CONSISTENTLY DEFEND YOUR OWN INTERESTS AND IN THIS CASE, THAT MEANS SUPPORT TO UKRAINE, BEING A GOOD ALLY TO OUR ALLIES AROUND THE WORLD, NOT WITHDRAWING, BECAUSE THAT INVITES THE KINDS OF AGGRESSION THAT IS MOST DANGEROUS TO U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY.

THAT BUILDS US TO A CONFRONTATION WHICH CHINA IS MORE AGGRESSIVE TOWARDS TAIWAN.

IN WHICH IRAN IS MUCH MORE ADVENTUROUS IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

IN WHICH OUR ADVERSAADVERSARIES, AGAIN, CROSS THRESHOLDS THAT EVENTUALLY WE'LL HAVE TO DEFEND, SO, IT'S BETTER TO BE ON A TEAM, LIKE WE ARE WITH DEMOCRACIES IN NATO, THAN TO GO IT ALONE, LET OUR FRIENDS BE PICKED OFF ONE AT A TIME, AND THEN BE A VERY EASY TARGET FOR ADVERSAIES THAT COE LENS GUESS OUR INTERESTS.

>> ONE OF THE PARTS OF PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY'S VICTORY PLAN THAT HE PRESENTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, BOTH IN THE U.S. AND THEN TO HIS PARLIAMENT, IS THAT UKRAINE HAS TO JOIN NATO.

NOW, OF COURSE, THAT'S A TOTAL NONSTARTER.

IS THERE ANY WAY TO DEFLECT THAT ISSUE, DEFER THAT ISSUE?

OR DO YOU ADVOCATE UKRAINE BEING BROUGHT INTO NATO?

>> I DO ADVOCATE FOR UKRAINE BEING BROUGHT INTO NATO.

I THINK IT'S NOT REALISTIC AND NOT SOMETHING THAT PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY SHOULD BE PSHING FOR AT THE MOMENT, BECAUSE IT'S ACTUALLY IN A LOT OF WAYS, A BIT OF A POISON PILL FOR THE PEACE STRATEGY THAT HE'S ADVOCATING FOR.

THE SMARTER THING TO DO WOULD BE TO GET THE KIND OF SUPPORT HE NEEDS THAT'S -- WE'RE GOING TO GET A LITTLE BIT MORE WONKY INTO THE MILITARY SPHERE, TO TRAIN HIS FORCES TO BE ABLE TO CONDUCT COMPLEX COMBINED ARMS OPERATIONS, TO GET THE KINDS OF EQUIPMENT HE NEEDS IN ORDER TO LAUNCH SUCCESSFUL OPERATIONS, TO GET THE INVESTMENT HE NEEDS IN HIS OWN INDUSTRIAL BASE TO PRODUCE MORE DRONES, TO REPAIR WESTERN-DONATED EQUIPMENT, THOSE ARE FAR MORE PRACTICAL ACTIVITIES THAT ACTUALLY GETS HIM TO WHERE HE WANTS TO BE, WHICH IS A -- AN END OF THE WAR SCENARIO.

NATO IS GOING TO HAPPEN.

I'M CONFIDENT IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN.

IT'S JUST NOT GOING TO HAPPEN THIS YEAR, NEXT YEAR, IT MIGHT BE FIVE YEARS, IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE LONGER.

BECAUSE THAT'S THE ONLY THING THAT REALLY PREVENTS PUTIN FROM CONTINUING TO CONDUCT THESE KINDS OF AGGRESSIVE MOVES PERIODICALLY WHEN HE FEELS HE'S REBUILT THE STRENGTH.

SO, I BELIEVE IN NATO, I BELIEVE THAT THAT'S WHERE UKRAINE SHOULD END UP BEING, BUT IT'S JUST NOT WHERE -- WHAT SHOULD BE ADVOCATED FOR AT THE MOMENT, WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT MUCH MORE PRACTICAL SOLUTIONS.

>> WHY DID THE UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE OF LAST YEAR FAIL?

>> IT FAILED FOR -- IT FAILED FOR SEVERAL DIFFERENT REASONS.

IT FAILED FOR PROBABLY THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE, WHICH IS SOMETHING I ADVOCATE STRONGLY, IS THAT THE UKRAINIANS WERE NOT TRAINED TO PULL TOGETHER A COMPLEX COMBINED ARMS OPERATION TO REALLY ACHIEVE THEIR STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES.

AND THEY TRY TO POKE AND PROD TO SEE WHERE THE RUSSIANS WERE VULNERABLE AND THEY SPREAD THEIR FORCES TOO FAR APART, SO, YOU NEED SOMETHING CALLED MASS.

YOU NEED TO FOCUS ON THE MAIN EFFORT.

THEY DIDN'T REALLY DO THAT.

NOR COULD THEY SYNCHRONIZE OPERATIONS BETWEEN BATTALIONS WITHIN A BRIGADE OR BRIGADES WITHIN A LARGER FOOTPRINT.

THESE ARE ORGANIZATIONS THAT ARE 5,000, 10,000, 15,000.

THEY -- THEY'RE NOT EQUIPPED TO DO THAT.

THEY'VE SHOWN SUCCESS IN BEING ABLE TO DO SMALLER OPERATIONS, LIKE THE KURSK INCURSION WITH THEIR ELITE UNITS, BUT AS A WHOLE, THEY WEREN'T ABLE TO DO THAT.

THAT'S ONE.

THE OTHER THING IS THEY WERE UNDEREQUIPPED.

U.S., WESTERN EQUIPMENT CAME IN TOO LATE.

IT DIDN'T -- WE PROMISED -- OVERPROMISED AND UNDERDELIVERED.

THAT'S ANOTHER ISSUE.

I THINK THE FACT IS, WE UNDERINVESTED IN UKRAINE BEING ABLE TO BUILD OUT THE CRITICAL COMPONENTS OF ITS OWN OFFENSIVE CAPABILITIES.

UKRAINE WAS 25% OF THE ENTIRE SOVIET INDUSTRIAL BASE.

THAT'S LANGUISHED.

THE UKRAINIANS THEMSELVES HAVEN'T INVESTED IN THERE.

MOBILIZATION.

THIS IS ANOTHER THING THAT I PUSH FOR, THE UKRAINIANS NEED TO MOBILIZE TROOPS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE AGE OF 18.

IT'S A TOUGH THING TO DO.

THEY WANT TO PRESERVE THAT -- >> WELL, LET ME STOP YOU THERE.

THAT MOBILIZATION YOU TALK ABOUT, 300,000 MORE TROOPS, AND, MAN, ZELENSKYY'S GETTING A LOT OF PUBLIC UNREST ABOUT THAT, ISN'T THAT A DANGEROUS THING TO DO?

>> IT IS A DANGEROUS THING TO DO.

BUT IT'S NAVIGATABLE.

WHY IS IT?

IF YOU GET THE RESOURCES, THE WESTERN EQUIPMENT, THE WESTERN TRAINING, THAT GIVES THE TROOPS A CONFIDENCE AND MORALE IN ORDER TO FIGHT ON, IT GIVES THE POPULATION SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FACT THAT THEY'LL BE PREPARED FOR THOSE BATTLES THAT THEY NEED TO FACE.

RIGHT NOW, WITHOUT A VIABLE THEORY OF VICTORY, PEOPLE DON'T WANT TO SIGN UP.

THEY DON'T WANT TO BE CANNON FODDER.

BUT IF YOU PROPOSE A VISION FOR SUCCESS AND RESOURCE IT WITH THE WAYS AND MEANS TO IMPLEMENT IT, YOU CAN GET PEOPLE TO SIGN UP, LIKE YOU DID IN THE BEGINNING OF THE WAR, WHEN PEOPLE WERE VERY, VERY, IN MASS NUMBERS, JOINING IN.

THERE'S ALSO CORRUPTION ISSUES.

THE RICH ARE BUYING THEIR WAY OUT OF THIS WAR.

IT'S A WAR THAT'S BEING WAGED BY THE MIDDLE CLASS AND THE POOR IN UKRAINE.

THAT NEEDS TO END.

IT IS -- IT'S A WHOLE OF SOCIETY PROBLEM.

PEOPLE CANNOT, YOU KNOW, LOOK FOR EXCUSES TO GET OUT.

SO, IF YOU ADDRESS THESE PROBLEMS AND YOU HAVE TIME TO DO IT.

EVERY DAY COUNTS.

BUT YOU HAVE NINE MONTHS TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE.

YOU COULD START FILLING YOUR TROOPS FOR ROTATIONS, SO PEOPLE WOULD WORK OFF THE LINES, YOU COULD TRAIN NEW FORCES, IN ORDER TO BRING THEM INTO THE FIGHT.

YOU HAVE TIME TO DO IT.

BUT IT NEEDS TO BE IMPLEMENTED SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.

AND YOU NEED TO HAVE THE RESOLVE, THE LEADER NEEDS TO HAVE THE RESOLVE TO CAST A VISION AND FOLLOW THROUGH ON THAT VISION.

>> ONE OF THE PARTS OF THE RESOURCES YOU TALK ABOUT NEEDING -- THAT UKRAINE NEEDS IN ORDER TO DO AN OFFENSIVE AND MAYBE SET THE GROUND FOR VICTORY IS, OF COURSE, LONGER RANGE WEAPONS THAT WOULD STRIKE UNTIL RUSSIAN TERRITORY.

WHICH OF THOSE DO YOU THINK THE U.S. SHOULD BE SENDING RIGHT NOW, AND WHAT'S THE DANGER OF DOING THAT?

>> I WOULD SAY THE DANGER IS RELATIVELY MINIMAL.

WE COULD NEVER BE DISMISSIVE OF NUCLEAR SABER RATTLING, JUST BECAUSE THE CONSEQUENCES ARE TOO HIGH.

BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT RISK, YOU DON'T JUST LOOK AT THE CONSEQUENCES, YOU LOOK AT THE PROBABILITIES.

IN THIS CASE.

THE CONSEQUENCES ARE CATASTROPHIC, BUT THE PROBABILITIES ARE NEGLIGIBLE.

WHY?

BECAUSE THIS IDEA OF MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION.

IT IS NOT IN THE RUSSIAN'S INTEREST TO WAGE NUCLEAR WAR THAT RISKS THEIR OWN WELL BEING, THEIR OWN NATIONAL SECURITY IMPERATIVES.

SO, ON THAT BASIS, YOU DON'T WANT TO THEN SUCCUMB TO NUCLEAR EXTORTION.

YOU CAN'T JUST EVERY TIME THE RUSSIANS SAY THEY'RE CONDUCTING A NUCLEAR EXERCISE, YOU BEND AND BREAK, BECAUSE THAT ENCOURAGES THEM TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THIS IDEA, AND EVENTUALLY, THEY'LL GET TO A POINT WHERE WE HAVE TO DEFEND OURSELVES.

WE HAVE NO CHOICE, YOU KNOW, WITH NATO ARTICLE V AT STAKE.

WE HAVE TO DEMONSTRATE THE RESOLVE TO BE ABLE TO DEFEND THOSE KEY CRITICAL NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS.

SO, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

THAT MEANS IT GIVES YOU LOTS OF OPERATING SPACE BELOW THAT.

THAT MEANS LONG RANGE WEAPONS THAT ARE TRANSFERRED OVER TO UKRAINE BECOME THE SOVEREIGN WEAPONS OF UKRAINE.

THEY ARE NO LONGER U.S.

WEAPONS.

IT'S A STANDARD PRACTICE, INTERNATIONAL NORMS.

>> BUT DOESN'T OUR CONGRESS REQUIRE OTHERWISE WHEN WE'RE SENDING WEAPONS OVERSEAS?

>> WE DO SOMETHING USED END USE MONITORING.

WE HAVE SOME CONSTRAINTS THAT HAVE TO ABIDE BY BASIC NORMS THAT THEY'RE NOT BEING USED FOR WAR CRIMES, FOR INSTANCE, OR FOR TERRORISM, THAT THEY'RE NOT SEEPING INTO SOME SORT OF INTERNATIONAL BLACK MARKET EXCHANGE.

THOSE THINGS CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED.

THOSE LAWS, THE PROVISIONS OF THOSE LAWS CAN BE MET.

IT'S A QUESTION OF WHAT WE CAN DO OUTSIDE OF THAT, WITH REGARDS TO ARMING THE UKRAINIANS TO BE ABLE TO BETTER WAGE A DEFENSIVE WAR, A WAR OF SURVIVAL FOR THEMSELVES, THAT ALSO IMPLICATES U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY.

BUT LOOK, WE ONLY HAVE THIS CHOICE IN ONE SCENARIO.

IF KAMALA HARRIS IS ELECTED, WE HAVE MAYBE THE CONTINUATION OF LESS THAN PERFECT POLICY, ALTHOUGH THERE'S A HUGE OPPORTUNITY FOR A POLICY REVIEW THAT ALLOWS THE HARRIS ADMINISTRATION TO BE MORE THOUGHTFUL IN PROVISIONING SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE EQUATION, YOU HAVE TRUMP.

THERE, WE KNOW WHAT'S CLEAR ALSO.

WE HAVE A WITHDRAWAL OF THE U.S. FROM THE INTERNATIONAL STAGE, A CATERINGENEMIES, OUR THREAT TO OUR ALLIES.

>> CONGRESS IS A PLAYER IN THIS, AND CONGRESS, SEEMINGLY, JUST JUDGING FROM WHAT HAPPENED LAST TIME, IS NOT ABOUT TO PASS A WHOLE LOT MORE APPROPRIATIONS AID TO UKRAINE.

SO, EVEN IF KAMALA HARRIS WINS, AREN'T WE IN THE SITUATION YOU DESCRIBE IN YOUR ARTICLE?

>> YEAH, SO, I THINK ACTUALLY WE ARE NOT.

WHAT WE HAVE IS THE CAPTURE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY BY AN INDIVIDUAL, HIGHLY CHARISMATIC INDIVIDUAL THAT HAS DRAGGED THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IN CERTAIN WAYS AWAY FROM ITS ROOTS, ITS REAGAN-ERA DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES, FENDING OFF AUTHORITARIANISM.

IN SOME WAYS, THAT'S A CURRENT FOR THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, BUT A LOT OF IT IS THIS CHARISMATIC LEADER THAT'S DRAGGING THEM IN THAT DIRECTION.

SO, ONCE TRUMP IS OUT OF THE PICTURE, YOU HAVE A PORTION OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY RETURN TO ITS ROOTS.

AND YOU DO HAVE, IF YOU LOOK AT, FOR INSTANCE, THE SENATE, YOU HAVE OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED SUPPORT TO UKRAINE.

THE HOUSE, WHICH IS FAR MORE KIND OF UNDER THE SWAY, YOU KNOW, THE RAPTURE OF MAGA AND TRUMPISM AND EXTREME RIGHT WING, TENDS TO BE MORE FLUID, AND IN THIS MOMENT, THEY'RE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF UKRAINE, THOUGH THEY WERE COMPELLED TO MOVE ON THE ISSUE AFTER NINE MONTHS, WHY?

BECAUSE IT WASN'T THE SPEAKER THAT MOVED THEM ON THE ISSUE, IT WAS INDIVIDUALS.

YOU WOULD HAVE REPUBLICANS PEEL AWAY AND SUPPORT AID TO UKRAINE.

I THINK IT'S HARDER NOW.

NINE MONTHS ON.

>> IT'S GOING TO BE HARDER TO GET ANOTHER ROUND OF APPROPRIATIONS, BUT WITH A THEORY OF VICTORY, WITH A VISION, WHERE UKRAINE, WHERE THE WAR COULD POTENTIALLY WIND DOWN IN 2025, DEEPER INTO 2025, YOU COULD GET AT LEAST ONE MORE PUSH, AND SUPPORT.

WHAT YOU WANT TO DO IS, YOU WANT TO COMMUNICATE RESOLVE, THOUGH, AND YOU DON'T WANT TO SAY THAT THIS IS FIE NILT, BECAUSE THAT ENCOURAGES A PUTIN TO CONTINUE ON, CONTINUE TO WAGE THE WAR FOR ANOTHER YEAR OR TWO YEARS.

BUT HE'S ALSO -- PUTIN DOESN'T HAVE ALL THE RESOURCES.

THE RUSSIANS HAVE LOST VAST QUANTITIES OF TROOPS AND RESOURCES.

THEY ARE STARTING TO RUN THIN.

SO, IF THERE'S A SUCCESSFUL CAMPAIGN IN 2025, WE CAN GET THERE.

AND THE U.S. CAN PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN DOING THAT.

>> ALEXANDER VINDMAN, THANK YOU FOR JOINING THE SHOW.

>> THANK YOU.

I LOOK FORWARD TO THE NEXT TIME.

>> GREAT ANALYSIS.

>>> AND FINALLY TONIGHT, RIGHT HERE IN NEW YORK, A WIN FOR THE HISTORY BOOKS.

THE NEW YORK LIBERTY BASKETBALL TEAM HAS WON ITS FIRST EVER TITLE, BECOMING WNBA CHAMPIONS.

AND NOT ONLY THAT, THEY BROUGHT HOME THIS CITY'S FIRST PROFESSIONAL BASKETBALL TROPHY SINCE THE MID '70s, FOR MEN'S AND WOMEN'S TEAMS.

THE NEW YORK KNICKS LAST WON THE NBA CHAMPIONSHIP BACK IN 1973.

>>> AND THAT'S IT FOR OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.

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