New Survey Finds Significant Support for Political Violence Ahead of Election

>>> ONLY A FEW DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE U.S. ELECTION, AS YOU KNOW, AND THE EXTREMELY TIGHT RACE BETWEEN HARRIS AND TRUMP IS KEEPING PEOPLE ON THEIR TOES, ESPECIALLY AFTER JANUARY 6th MANY FEAR THE OUTCOME COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER SEISMIC EVENT IN POLITICAL VIOLENCE.

UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO PROFESSOR ROBERT PAYNE, AN EXPERT, JOINING US TO DISCUSS HOW FUTURE ATTACKS COULD BE PREVENTED.

>> ROBERT PAYNE, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US AGAIN.

YOU HAVE BEEN STUDYING POLITICAL VIOLENCE, ROLLING OUT THESE SURVEYS SINCE 2021, BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE, WELL, WHO ARE MORE OPEN TO THE IDEA OF CLINICAL VIOLENCE TO GET WHAT THEY WANT.

WHAT IS THE LATEST SURVEY THAT YOU HAVE, AND WHAT YOU THINK, AS YOU STATED, THERE IS A COMICAL, SERIOUS RISK ANOTHER JANUARY 6th THAT HAPPENED DURING THIS ELECTION CYCLE?

WHY?

>> OUR MOST RECENT SURVEY IS SEPTEMBER, JUST ABOUT A MONTH AGO, SEPTEMBER 16th WHEN IT CAME OUT OF THE FIELD, AND WE FOUND THAT 6% OF AMERICA -- THE EQUIVALENT OF 15 MILLION AMERICAN ADULTS -- SUPPORT THE USE OF FORCE TO RESTORE DONALD TRUMP TO THE PRESIDENCY, AND 8% OF AMERICAN ADULTS SUPPORT THE USE OF FORCE TO PREVENT DONALD TRUMP FROM BECOMING PRESIDENT.

THESE NUMBERS MATTER, BECAUSE SUPPORT FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE CAN MANAGE LONE ACTORS, FOR THEIR OWN PSYCHOSOCIAL REGIONS, ON THE EDGE OF VIOLENCE, OVER THAT EDGE, AND TAKE ACTION, AND THIS CAN HAPPEN BECAUSE THAT SUPPORT FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE I JUST IDENTIFIED OFTEN SHOWS UP IN SOCIAL MEDIA.

IT OFTEN SHOWS UP IN SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS.

SO, THE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN TERRIBLY STABLE OVER THE LAST YEAR, SO, WE SHOULDN'T BE SURPRISED WHEN WE SEE VOLATILE ACTORS ATTEMPT TO ASSASSINATE NANCY PELOSI, AS HAPPENED, ATTEMPT TO ASSASSINATE BARACK OBAMA, THE ASSAILANT WHO TRIED TO GET INTO HIS HOUSE WITH GUNS AND WEAPONS IN HIS VEHICLE IN JUNE 2023, OR TWO ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT AGAINST DONALD TRUMP.

IN ALL OF THESE CASES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOTS OF DETAILS ABOUT THE INDIVIDUALS AND ATTACKERS THAT ARE DIFFERENT, AND IN ALL OF THOSE CASES, THEY WERE SEEKING TO DO WHAT THEY BELIEVE WOULD BE POPULAR FOR THEIR AUDIENCE.

>> PROFESSOR, VIOLENCE HAS BEEN A PART OF THE POLITICAL SYSTEMS.

SO, IF YOU ARE ABLE TO LOOK BACK LONGER FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN AMERICAN HISTORY, WHAT IS SO CONCERNED ABOUT IT TODAY?

>> YOU ARE RIGHT.

THE MOMENT WE ARE IN TODAY IS NOT UNPRECEDENTED IN OUR HISTORY, BUT WE ARE IN A HISTORICALLY FINE PERIOD OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE.

THOSE CASES I JUST DISCUSSED ARE A CLUSTER, AND THERE ARE MORE.

YOU HAVE TO GO BACK TO THE 1960'S AND '70S, 50 YEARS AGO, TO FIND OTHER HIGH POINTS THAT LOOK LIKE THIS.

WHAT ARE WE IN THIS HISTORICALLY HIGH PERIOD?

AS IN THE 1960'S, PERIODS OF SOCIAL CHANGE AND RADICAL SOCIAL CHANGE OFTEN CORRESPOND WITH PERIODS OF HIGH POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN SOCIETIES.

THAT IS THE COMMON PATTERN, WHAT IS THE SOCIAL CHANGE THAT WE ARE GOING THROUGH TODAY?

WELL, THE BIG, HISTORIC SOCIAL CHANGE IS WE'RE GOING FROM A WHITE MAJORITY TO A WHITE MINORITY, TRULY MULTIRACIAL DEMOCRACY.

IN 1990, 77% OF AMERICANS WERE NON-HISPANIC WHITE.

TODAY, THAT NUMBER IS 61%.

IN 10 OR 12 YEARS, THE NUMBER WILL BE 50, THEN 49%.

WE ARE GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD OF TRANSITION.

ABOUT 20 YEARS, STARTED ABOUT 10 YEARS AGO, AND THAT CORRESPONDS WITH THE RISE OF DONALD TRUMP, AND ALSO THE OPPOSITION TO DONALD TRUMP, AND THAT ALSO CORRESPONDS WITH THE RISE OF THIS PERIOD I CALL THE ERA OF VIOLENT POPULISM IN AMERICA, AND THAT ERA OF VIOLENT POPULISM IS, UNFORTUNATELY, LIKELY TO BE WITH US FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS, BECAUSE IT IS A CAUSE FROM DONALD TRUMP, BUT HE IS ALSO THE SYMPTOM OF THIS ERA THAT WE ARE GOING THROUGH, AND IT IS NOT SIMPLY A MATTER OF THIS ONE OR THAT ONE, THIS ELECTION OR THAT ELECTION.

THINGS HAVE BEEN GETTING WORSE STEADILY AS WE ARE GOING THROUGH THIS HISTORIC TRANSITION TO A GENUINELY MULTIRACIAL DEMOCRACY.

THAT IS ENORMOUS SOCIAL CHANGE.

BIGGER SOCIAL CHANGE THAN THE 1960'S.

>> IS THIS DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT PLAYING OUT ONE OF THE REASONS THAT PEOPLE ARE FEELING SO ANXIOUS?

I CAN UNDERSTAND WHY IT LEADS INTO THIS RACIST IDEA OF A GREAT REPLACEMENT THERE.

RIGHT?

I'M WONDERING WHETHER THE SUBSET OF THE POPULATION WHOSE GREATEST ANXIETIES ARE ABOUT BEING REPLACED, IF YOU WILL, ARE THOSE PEOPLE MORE LIKELY TO WANT POLITICAL VIOLENCE?

SAY, THEN PEOPLE WHO MIGHT SEE THE PATTERN, BUT DON'T SUBSCRIBE TO IT AS STRICTLY?

>> INSIDE OF OUR BODY POLITIC TODAY, AS IT IS TOLD YOU, THERE ARE 6% OF AMERICANS THAT SUPPORT THE USE OF FORCE TO RESTORE DONALD TRUMP, AND THEY ALSO HEAVILY BELIEVE IN THAT GREAT REPLACEMENT CONSPIRACY THEORY, AS YOU JUST SAID.

HOWEVER, THE OTHER 8% ARE ALSO SUPPORTING VIOLENCE AGAINST TRUMP.

A WAY TO THINK ABOUT THIS IS THAT YOU HAVE A PORTION ON THE RIGHT WHO WANTS TO SLOW DOWN OR REVERSE THIS TRANSITION TO A MULTIRACIAL DEMOCRACY, AND YOU HAVE A PORTION ON THE LEFT THAT WANTS TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE THAT SHIFT FOR FEAR IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN.

YOU SEE, THE LEFT IS RESPONDING TO THE RISE OF TRUMP, AND IT IS RESPONDING IN NOT JUST, LIKE, WELL, IT IS OKAY IF HE WINS, NO, IT IS RESPONDING IN A WAY THAT IS QUITE SERIOUS IN WAY WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN OUR LIFETIMES, AND THE REASON IS BECAUSE THE FEAR IS, IF TRUMP WINS, THIS WILL ACTUALLY KEEP MINORITIES AS SECOND-CLASS CITIZENS, PRETTY MUCH FOREVER, AND THAT IS A DAUNTING PROSPECT FOR MANY PEOPLE ON THE LEFT.

NOW, THE RISK OF VIOLENCE IS GREATER ON THE RIGHT, ALTHOUGH, WE HAVE SEEN VIOLENCE ON THE LEFT.

THE REASON IT IS GREATER IS BECAUSE OF DONALD TRUMP.

HE HAS DEMONSTRATED THAT HE IS WILLING AND WILL STOKE VIOLENCE TO EGG ON A MOB, TO SEIZE THE CAPITOL, TO STOP THE CERTIFICATION OF AN ELECTION THAT GOES AGAINST HIM.

NO OTHER POLITICAL LEADER IN OUR HISTORY, NEARLY 250 YEAR HISTORY, EVER DID THAT.

SO, NOT THAT THERE IS, ESSENTIALLY, A COMBUSTIBLE MATERIAL SO FAR -- YOU CAN THINK OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE AS LIKE A WILDFIRE.

THEIR UNIQUE COMBUSTIBLE MATERIAL -- THAT IS HOW WE KNOW WE ARE IN WILDFIRE SEASON.WE CAN MEASURE THE CHANGE IN SIZE OF DRY COMBUSTIBLE MATERIAL, MEASURED QUITE SCIENTIFICALLY, BUT WE CAN'T MEASURE, SCIENTIFICALLY, THE TRUTHS BECAUSE THOSE ARE ON INSPECTED LIGHTNING STRIKES, CAMPFIRES LEFT UNATTENDED, WE ARE CIGAR BUTTS THROWN OUT OF THE WINDOW.

IN THE CASE OF THESE, TRIGGERS, SOME LIKE DONALD TRUMP, WHO IS ACTUALLY TRIGGERING AND SETTING OFF AND IGNITING THAT COMBUSTIBLE MATERIAL.

THE MOST EXTREME CASE, OF COURSE, WAS JANUARY 6th, WHERE HE BROUGHT THE COMBUSTIBLE MATERIAL TO WASHINGTON, D.C., AND THEN HE THREW MATCHES RIGHT INTO THE CROWD TO IGNITE THEM AGAINST THE CAPITOL, AND ONCE THEY WERE IN THE CAPITOL, HE IGNITED THEM FURTHER TO ATTACK HIS OWN VICE PRESIDENT, MIKE PENCE.

SO, WE ARE IN A WILDFIRE SEASON .

THE MOST DANGEROUS TRIGGERS ARE ON THE RIGHT, BUT WE JUST NEED TO RECOGNIZE, IT IS A WILDFIRE SEASON WHERE THERE ARE COMBUSTIBLE MATERIAL ON BOTH SIDES.

>> TO CARRY THIS ANALOGY FURTHER, WE HAVE AN INFRASTRUCTURE IN PLACE WHERE THERE IS A SIGN THAT SAYS, WILDFIRE SEASON, WILDFIRE RISK, EXTREME, HIGH, LOW.

RIGHT?

IT IS WHAT ABOUT IN THE OPEN.

WE UNDERSTAND IT.

WE DON'T NECESSARILY SEEM TO HAVE THAT SORT OF IN THE STRUCTURE AND TO OUR CONVERSATION.

WHAT CAN WE DO IN THE POLITICAL SYSTEM TO CREATE A VEHICLE FOR NOT JUST NEED OPINIONS TO BE SHARED, BUT FOR THEM TOGETHER -- TO GATHER WEIGHT?

>> WE KNOW INCENDIARY MATERIAL CAN COMBUST, BUT CALMING RHETORIC IS THE CALLING WHERE THEY CAN HELP CALM DOWN THE OF FIRE.

WHERE THE CALLING RHETORIC SHOULD COME FROM HIS OUR SENIOR POLITICAL LEADERS.

WHAT THAT WOULD LOOK LIKE HIS SENIOR LEADERS WOULD SAY, ALL POLITICAL VIOLENCE, NOT JUST VIOLENCE BY THE OTHER SIDE, BUT ALL POLITICAL VIOLENCE IS ILLEGAL, IMMORAL, AND ANTI- AMERICAN, AND A LEADER WHO HAS BEEN DOING THAT MOST IS PRESIDENT BIDEN.

FOR SEVERAL YEARS, WE HAVE FOUND , IN OUR DATA, STRONG SUPPORT FOR CLINICAL VIOLENCE TO RESTORE A WOMAN'S RIGHT TO ABORTION.

10% OF THE PUBLIC SUPPORTS THAT.

THAT IS A LOT OF PEOPLE, 30 MILLION PEOPLE.

WELL, WHY DON'T WE SEE MORE VIOLENCE IN THAT REGARD?

ONE OF THE BIG REASONS IS PRESIDENT BIDEN.

WHAT PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS BEEN DOING IS, FROM THE DAY OF THE DOBBS DECISION, JUNE 22nd, 2022, WHAT PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS BEEN DOING IS CONDEMNING THE DOBBS DECISION, BUT ALSO HAVING BIG, FAT PARAGRAPHS THAT CONDEMN POLITICAL VIOLENCE, EVEN IF IT COMES FROM THE LEFT, AND HE THEN SAYS, TAKE THAT ANGER YOU ALL FEEL, REDIRECT IT AWAY FROM VIOLENCE AND TOWARD VOTING.

NOT TRYING TO TELL PEOPLE TO NOT BE ANGRY, HE IS TRYING TO TELL PEOPLE TO REDIRECT THAT ANGER INTO VOTING, AND CHANGE THE RESULT IN THE DEMOCRATIC WAY.

WHILE THAT IS EXTREMELY VALUABLE -- AND HE HAS BEEN SAYING THAT NOT JUST ABOUT THE ISSUE OF ABORTION -- BUT HE ALSO, IN HIS OVAL OFFICE ADDRESS RIGHT AFTER THE FIRST TRUMP ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT, SAID THE VERY SAME THING FOR 15 MINUTES IN FRONT OF THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE, WHERE HE CONDEMNED ALL POLITICAL VIOLENCE.

>> FOR OUR AUDIENCE, THIS IS NOT JUST A CAUTION IF PRESIDENT TRUMP WINS.

IT SEEMS THAT WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT, THE UNDERLYING TREND YOU DOCUMENT IT THROUGH YOUR SURVEYS, IS MORE STRUCTURAL IN NATURE, THAT WE NEED TO PREPARE AS A COUNTRY FOR THE PROSPECT OF ALMOST AN INCREASED SEASON OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE THAT MAY SHOW ITSELF IN DIFFERENT WAYS.

>> WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS THE WORKING OUT OF WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT WHEN THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN THE BODY POLITIC, THESE VOLATILE ACTORS THAT WILL THEN BE NUDGED OVER THE EDGE, AND THIS IS HAPPENING MORE, MORE, AND MORE, AND WE NEED TO RECOGNIZE THAT THE REACHES OF THIS ARE ACTUALLY LOCATED IN THIS STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN OUR COUNTRY.

IT IS ONE OF THE MOST DRAMATIC SOCIAL CHANGES THAT ANY COUNTRY HAS GONE THROUGH ALREADY.

AND THIS IS NOT -- THIS CHANGE TO A MULTIRACIAL DEMOCRACY -- THIS DOESN'T HAPPEN IN A YEAR, WE ARE GOING THROUGH THE 20- YEAR TRANSITION PERIOD NOW, ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH IT, AND THIS CORRESPONDS, STARTING 10 YEARS AGO, STARTING TO REALLY SEE THE CUSP OF THE CHANGE.

THAT IS WHEN DONALD TRUMP CAME ON THE SCENE, METEORIC RISE, AND ALSO, THE ISSUE OF IMMIGRATION BECAME METEORIC.

YES, THERE WERE PEOPLE LIKE TRUMP THE FOUR IN THE '90S, PAT BUCHANAN, ALMOST THE EXACT SAME RHETORIC, BY THE WAY, AND ALSO, THE ISSUE OF IMMIGRATION HAS BEEN AROUND.

BUT THOSE ISSUES HAVE DOMINATED OUR POLITICS THE LAST 10 YEARS, AND THAT IS HAPPENING, NOT SIMPLY BECAUSE OF SOCIAL MEDIA, IT IS HAPPENING BECAUSE OF THIS STRUCTURAL CHANGE WE ARE GOING THROUGH AS A COUNTRY.

SO, WE HAVE TO PREPARE FOR THIS, AND WE NEED OUR POLITICAL LEADERS TO STEP UP AND RECOGNIZE THAT PART OF THEIR LEADERSHIP NOW IS CONDEMNING POLITICAL VIOLENCE WHEREVER IT COMES FROM, EVEN IF IT COMES FROM THEIR OWN CONSTITUENTS.

>> WHEN YOU TALK TO THESE POLICE CHIEFS AND AUTHORITIES, WHAT YOU TELL THEM?

RIGHT NOW, WE GOT THE FBI, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY SENDING WARNINGS, SAYING, DOMESTIC TERRORISTS WANT TO SEW VIOLENCE THROUGHOUT THE SELECTION PROCESS.

WE HAVE SEEN BALLOT BOXES CATCHING FIRE FROM INCENDIARY DEVICES IN OREGON AND WASHINGTON.

HOW DO YOU TELL PEOPLE TO PREPARE?

>> THE KEY ELEMENTS IDENTIFY OUR WHAT WILL DETERMINE THE OUTCOME OF ELECTIONS, AND WILL DETERMINE THE OUTCOME?

OBVIOUSLY, THE VOTERS ITSELF, AND ALSO, THE ELECTION OFFICIALS.

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY CRUCIAL TO UNDERSTAND THE THREATS AGAINST THE ELECTION OFFICIALS, FOR EXAMPLE, THESE AREN'T DISCONNECTED, ISOLATED EVENTS FROM ALL THOSE OTHER ACTS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE I JUST POINTED OUT.

THEY ARE JUST ANOTHER DIMENSION OF THE POLITICAL VIOLENCE AROUND THE OUTCOME OF ELECTIONS, AND SPECIFICALLY, AROUND THE OUTCOMES RELATED TO TRUMP, BECAUSE TRUMP ISN'T JUST A POLITICAL LEADER.

HE IS REPRESENTING FOR NOT ONLY HIS PEOPLE, BUT THE FOLKS WHO DISAGREE WITH TRUMP.

THIS RETURN TO -- KEEPING FROZEN IN TIME -- THIS WHITE MAJORITY DEMOCRACY, AND AS A RESULT OF THAT, YOU CAN EXPECT THE VIOLENCE WILL BE VERY FOCUSED AROUND WHAT WILL DETERMINE HIS SUCCESS OR FAILURE, AND THAT IS RESULTING IN THE MAIL AND BALLOT BOXES THAT ARE NOW BEING BURNED -- IT IS NOT LOCAL.

WHAT IS LOCAL IS NATIONAL.

AND SO, THAT IS SOMETHING I'VE BEEN WARNING ABOUT IN DETAIL, WITH MANY HUNDREDS OF THESE OFFICIALS, AND HE ORGANIZATIONS THEMSELVES NOW ARE REACTING.

>> LAST ELECTION, TOOK SEVERAL DAYS TO START BEFORE THERE WERE KIND OF CALLS BY MEDIA INSTITUTIONS AND SO FORTH.

IF THIS ELECTION IS JUST AS CLOSE, WHAT HAPPENS IN THAT PERIOD, WHERE THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY?

>> THE UNCERTAINTY, AS YOU ARE COMPLAINING, THAT WORKS AGAINST US AND FOR MORE VIOLENCE, BECAUSE THAT UNCERTAINTY EQUATES TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS EVEN PROBABILITY -- OF MORE TRIGGERS.

SO, THOSE TRIGGERS COULD COME WITH MORE CONSPIRACY THEORIES ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

FOR EXAMPLE.

WILL THERE BE CONSPIRACY THEORIES EVEN IF THE ELECTION IS COMPLETELY CLEAR?

VERY LIKELY SO.

THIS IS ALSO WHY IT IS INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT TO HAVE A TRANSPARENCY AS WE GO FORWARD, AND THIS IS ALSO INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT THIS TIME AROUND, THIS ELECTION, THAT WE RECOGNIZE THAT THE SECURITY OF THE CENTRAL VALID TABULATION CENTERS AFTER NOVEMBER 5th ARE SELF -- THIS, ITSELF, IS A SERIOUS PROBLEM.

I MEAN, THE PHYSICAL SECURITY, NOT THE CYBERSECURITY.

WE NEED TO RECOGNIZE THAT, LAST TIME, 2020, THE MAIN VIOLENCE OCCURRED JANUARY 6th, PRECISELY BECAUSE IT HAPPENED LAST TIME ON JANUARY 6th, WE NEED TO WORRY ABOUT WHAT WE MIGHT CALL A JANUARY 6th TYPE EVENT HAPPENING MORE AT THE STATE LEVEL, OR BAD ACTORS SEEKING TO NOT JUST HARM ELECTION OFFICIALS, BUT PHYSICALLY DESTROY BALLOTS IN STATES WHERE THE ELECTION IS DECIDED BY TWO PERCENTAGE OR TWO, BECAUSE IF YOU CAN DESTROY, SAY, 2 OR 3% OF THE PHYSICAL BALLOTS IN A STATE, SAY, PENNSYLVANIA, AND IF PENNSYLVANIA IS THIS POSITIVE OF THE ELECTION, SEE HOW YOU CAN THROW THE WHOLE ELECTION INTO CHAOS.

SO, THAT IS SOMETHING THAT, THIS YEAR, IS A PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE PROBLEM.

>> PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US, ROBERT.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

THANK YOU.