11.06.2024

November 6, 2024

Fmr. US Ambassador to the EU under Trump, Gordon Sondland, discusses what policy may look like under the new Trump presidency. Evelyn Farkas of The McCain Institute explains the impact Trump’s election could have on foreign policy. The Norwegian Refugee Council’s Jan Egeland on news impacting the war in Gaza. NYT political reporter Astead Herndon breaks down the election.

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>>> HELLO, EVERYONE.

WELCOME TO "AMANPOUR AND COMPANY."

HERE IS WHAT IS COMING UP .

TRUMP WINS A SECOND TERM.

THE LATEST REACTION ON WHAT THIS MEANS FOR AMERICANS AT HOME AND ALLIES ABROAD.

I SPEAK TO TRUMP'S FORMER AMBASSADOR TO THE EU GORDAN SONDLAND AND POLICY ANALYST EVELYN FARKAS.

MORE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WORLD AS ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU FIRES HIS DEFENSE MINISTER.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE WAR IN GAZA.

DISCUSSING THAT AND THE DEEPER DISSENTING TO HELL FOR THE PEOPLE THERE WITH HEAD OF YOU AND CANCEL.

AND TALKING TO THE NEW YORK TIMES NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER.

>> "AMANPOUR AND COMPANY" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT .

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PATRICIA YOU IN.

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>>> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM EVERYONE.

ON CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR IN LONDON.

IN THE END IT WAS NOT EVEN CLOSE.

POLLSTERS TOLD US FOR MONTH THAT IT WAS A COIN TOSS, COULD TAKE DAYS TO COUNT AND TRUMP TOOK MOST SWING STATES AND THE POPULAR VOTE IN A SINGLE NIGHT.

>> WE OVERCAME OBSTACLES THAT NOBODY THOUGHT POSSIBLE.

AND IT IS CLEAR THAT WE'VE ACHIEVED THE MOST INCREDIBLE POLITICAL THING.

LOOK WHAT HAPPENED.

IS THIS CRAZY?

BUT IT'S A POLITICAL AREA THAT OUR COUNTRY IS --HAS NEVER SEEN BEFORE.

NOTHING LIKE THIS.

>> THE GENDER GOLF, WHAT DEMOCRATS WERE COUNTING ON WAS NOT DECISIVE.

A CLEAN SWEEP WITH THE REPUBLICANS TAKING CONTROL OF THE SENATE.

THEY COULD ALSO ONTO THE HOUSE WHILE CONSERVATIVES DOMINATE THE SUPREME COURT.

UNITED STATES THE TERM CAN GOVERN UNCONSTRAINED.

HIS AGENDA AS STATED BY HIMSELF INCLUDES MASS DEPORTATIONS, DEREGULATION, MASSIVE NEW TARIFFS ON ALL FOREIGN-MADE GOODS AND ON FOREIGN POLICY, HE TOUTS PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, BUT ALLIES FEAR THAT WILL MEAN A MORE ISOLATIONIST AMERICA.

JOINING ME NOW IS GORDAN SONDLAND, TRUMP'S FORMER AMBASSADOR TO THE EUROPEAN UNION AND SUPPORTER OF HIS REELECTION BID.

AMBASSADOR, WELCOME BACK TO THE PROGRAM.

WE SPOKE TO YOU A LITTLE BIT BEFORE THE ELECTION AND I JUST WANT TO START BY ASKING YOU, WERE YOU SURPRISED BY THIS SWEEPING RESULT?

>> I WAS SURPRISED PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE POLLSTERS WERE ALL TALKING ABOUT A NECK AND NECK RACE.

I THINK A LOT OF POLLSTERS ARE GOING TO BE OUT OF BUSINESS TODAY.

>> LET US ASK YOU NOW WHAT THIS ALL MEANS.

FIRST AND FOREMOST, HE SAID AMERICA HAS GIVEN US AN MANDATE.

WE'VE TAKEN CONTROL OF THE SENATE, ET CETERA, ET CETERA.

HOW WILL HE RULE, DO YOU THINK ?

IF HE HAS ALL BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT, HOW DOES THIS TRANSLATE, LET'S SAY, FIRST AT HOME?

>> FIRST OF ALL, HE WILL VIEW THE NEXT FOUR YEARS IN TERMS OF A STOPWATCH.

THEY WILL BE -BENT ON GETTING AS MUCH DONE AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE .

BECAUSE HE WAS IN THE WHITE HOUSE PREVIOUSLY, HE REMEMBERS EVERY MISTAKE HE MADE IN TERMS OF PERSONNEL, IN TERMS OF LEGISLATION.

SO I THINK YOU COULD SEE A TRUMP ADMINISTRATION 2.0 HITTING THE GROUND RUNNING WITH EXECUTIVE ORDERS, WITH TOUGH LEGISLATION PASSED VERY QUICKLY UP FRONT IN ORDER TO CODIFY IT.

THEY'RE GOING TO SEE AN INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF FORWARD MOVEMENT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

NATURE ANYWAY.

BUT THE LAST FOUR YEARS, WHEN HE IS A LAME DUCK AND DOES NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT REELECTION IS GOING TO MAKE IT THAT MUCH MORE POWERFUL.

>> LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT THE STAFF AS YOU FIRST MENTIONED.

MANY PEOPLE AND HE HIMSELF HAS SAID HE WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF THE STAFF HE WAS THERE.

MANY PEOPLE SAID HE HAD REALLY EXPERIENCED STAFF IN HIS FIRST TERM WE WERE ABLE TO RESTRAIN SOME OF HIS WORST IMPULSES.

OF COURSE, MANY OF THOSE WHO HAVE SPOKEN AGAINST HIM WILL NOT SERVE AGAIN.

HE WILL NOT HAVE THEM AGAIN.

THE IDEA IS THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GUARDRAILS OR DOES THAT NOT CONCERN YOU?

>> IT DOESN'T AT ALL.

FIRST OF ALL, A LOT OF THE STUFF THAT HE HAD PREVIOUSLY WERE USED OR WHAT I WOULD CALL THE OLD CORE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

MYSELF INCLUDED, TO BE FAIR.

THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, THROUGH THE NIAGARA MOVEMENT, HAS COMPLETELY REDEFINED ITSELF.

STAFF WORKING FOR HIM WHO ARE LOYALISTS TO THAT NEW MOVEMENT AND NOT GO BACK TO THE OLD DAYS.

>> LOYAL IS AND IS A VERY STRANGE WORD.

IT CAN MEAN ONE THING AND IT CAN MEAN ANOTHER.

TRUMP HAS SET IT AND YOU KNOW HE HAS SET IT BECAUSE HIS OWN CHIEF OF STAFF JOHN KELLY SAID THAT HE WISHES PEOPLE WERE AS LOYAL AS HITLER'S GENERALS.

WE'VE TALKED TO YOU ABOUT THIS BEFORE.

NONETHELESS, HE IS SAID TO HAVE SAID IT.

AGAIN, HE AND HIS PEOPLE HAVE SAID THAT THEY WILL HIRE PEOPLE WITHOUT NECESSARILY FBI BACKGROUND CHECKS.

YOU KNOW, JUST HIRE THEM.

HE HAS TALKED ABOUT COMING AFTER ENEMIES WITH THE MILITARY, WITH THE NATIONAL GUARD.

RUSSIAN AMERICANS FEEL COMFORTED BY THIS?

>> FIRST OF ALL, I COMPLETELY AS I SAID BEFORE REJECTS THE HITLER ANALOGY AND THE FASCIST ANALOGY.

VERY, VERY BUSINESSLIKE WHITE HOUSE.

THE DIFFERENCE IS INSTEAD OF HAVING PEOPLE SLINK AWAY QUIETLY AND TURN AROUND AND UNDERMINE THE DIRECTION HE IS TRYING TO TAKE THE COUNTRY, HE IS GOING TO HAVE PEOPLE THAT WILL EXECUTE.

AND THOSE THAT DON'T WANT TO EXECUTE WILL BE ASKED TO LEAVE, AS IT SHOULD BE.

EVEN IN A PRIVATE COMPANY, IT'S THE SAME THING.

>> OKAY?

LET ME ASK YOU THIS THEN.

WHEN DEMOCRATS, AS POINTED OUT IN THE NEWSPAPER, HAD FULL CONTROL OF GOVERNMENT, THEN BACK TO THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT, THE CHIPS ACT, SAVE THE AUTO INDUSTRY, SPENT BILLIONS ON RENEWABLE INDUSTRY, INFRASTRUCTURE AND MORE.

TRUMP AND HIS PEOPLE HAVE SAID THAT EVEN THE CHIPS ACT MIGHT BE AT RISK.

ALL OF THESE THINGS, THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT, OBAMACARE, ET CETERA, DO YOU THINK THAT HE IS GOING TO DO THAT KIND OF STUFF?

IN OTHER WORDS, REVERSE STUFF THAT THE PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATION PUT IN AND ADD TO WHAT HE HAS ALREADY TALKED ABOUT, WHICH IS MASS RAFT OF THE REGULATIONS ON EVERYTHING FROM CLIMATE TO BUSINESS TO EVERYTHING.

>> LET ME PUT IT THIS WAY.

I THINK WHEN THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION CAME IN, THERE WERE A LOT OF WHAT I CALL EGO REVERSALS.

IN OTHER WORDS, THE BIDEN FOLKS DIDN'T LOOK TO SEE WHETHER THESE POLICIES WERE ACTUALLY WORKING AND WERE GOOD FOR THE COUNTRY.

IT WAS SORT OF ANYTHING TRUMP SAID, WE ARE GOING TO DO THE OPPOSITE.

I DON'T THINK TRUMP IS STUPID.

I THINK HE IS GOING TO LOOK VERY THOUGHTFULLY AND VERY CAREFULLY AT EACH AND EVERY PIECE OF LEGISLATION AND EXECUTIVE ORDER, ET CETERA.

AND DECIDE WHAT IMPORTS WITH HIS AGENDA, WHAT'S GOOD FOR THE COUNTRY.

IN THE CASE WHERE IT DOES NOT, I THINK YOU WILL REVERSE OR INTRODUCE HIS OWN.

REMEMBER ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES.

>> THEY DO INDEED.

AS YOU KNOW, THEY HAVE BEEN WON AND LOST OVER THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT.

THE AMERICAN PEOPLE SUPPORT IT BY A VAST MAJORITY AND THE CHIPS ACT, I THINK, DID PRECISELY WHAT TRUMP WANTS TO DO WHICH IS PROTECT AMERICAN- MADE PRODUCTS.

SO I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT CHINA.

THE LAST TIME WE TALKED, WE MENTIONED THE TARIFFS, WHICH HE HAS SAID BASICALLY IN GROSS, HE WANTS TO PROPOSE A 20% TARIFF ACROSS THE BOARD ON ALL U.S. IMPORTS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD.

60% AGAINST CHINA AND SOME OTHER TRADING PARTNERS.

THIS POLICY ACCORDING TO THE PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, USED TO BE THE REPUBLICAN SECRETARY OF COMMERCE, COULD COST A TYPICAL MIDDLE INCOME HOUSEHOLD IN AMERICA MORE THAN $2600 PER YEAR.

YOU SAID THIS WAS WHEN WE LAST TALKED TO YOU SORT OF LIKE A SHOCK COLLAR ON A DOG.

BY THE WAY, THOSE ARE OUTLAWED NOW.

THEY PUSH THE BUTTON TO GET PEOPLE'S ATTENTION AND IT'S DESIGNED TO CHOOSE START A CONVERSATION.

THE PROBLEM IS THIS IS WHAT RUSH DOSHI, CHINA EXPERT ON THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL, TALLEST TRUMP COULD HAVE DONE BY FOLLOWING UP ON THOSE TARIFFS BUT DID NOT DO.

HERE IS THIS AND I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT IT AFTERWARDS.

>> THE TARIFF INCREASE WAS TO GET A DEAL THAT WOULD ALLOW AMERICA TO DO SOMETHING MEMBERS OF BOTH PARTIES WANT TO DO, RE- INDUSTRIALIZE AND REBUILD THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR.

I HAD TO PUT IT THIS WAY , BUT HE WAS SO EAGER FOR TRADE DEAL THAT HE TOOK A BAD DEAL.

HE WANTED A DEAL AHEAD OF THE REELECTION CAMPAIGN AND THE ONE HE TOOK ESSENTIALLY ALLOWED THE UNITED DATES TO KEEP IMPORTING CHINA'S MANUFACTURED GOODS.

THEY WOULD NOT CHANGE THEIR PRACTICE AND AMERICA WOULD EXPORT COMMODITIES TO CHINA.

>> SO HOW DO YOU THROW THAT NEEDLE?

ON THE ONE HAND, HE DID WHAT YOU SAID, GOT PEOPLE'S ATTENTION ON THE ISSUE.

ON THE OTHER HAND, HE IS ACCUSED OF DOING WHAT HE OFTEN SELF-DEALING.

DOING IT FOR HIS OWN REELECTION BID.

>> FIRST OF ALL, I DON'T THINK IT'S A NEEDLE --OR I DON'T THINK I NEED TO THREAD THE NEEDLE.

HE IS EMPOWERED WITH A CLEAN SHEET OF PAPER TO MAKE A LIST OF DEMANDS ON CHINA.

SOME OF THEM COULD BE TRADE RELATED?

SOME OF THEM COULD BE BEHAVIORAL.

FOR EXAMPLE, WHAT THEY ARE DOING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WHAT THEY ARE DOING WITH TAIWAN.

AS CHINA EITHER THE LINES TO SEE TO HIS REQUESTS OR DEMANDS, START PHASING IN TARIFFS TO THE POINT WHERE THEY BEGIN TO HURT AND THAT IS HOW THEY SHOULD BE USED.

I AM NOT CONVINCED THAT HE IS GOING TO PUT LARGE STRUCTURAL TARIFFS IN PLACE DAY ONE MINUTE ONE.

I THINK HE'S GOING TO USE THEM AS A CUDGEL IN ORDER TO GET THE BEHAVIOR OF CHINA ADJUSTED TO THE POINT OF WHERE OUR RELATIONSHIP IS BACK IN THE U.S. INTEREST WHERE IT IS NOT.

>> THAT'S WISHFUL THINKING.

HE HAS SAID TARIFFS IS THE BEST WORD IN THE DICTIONARY.

IT'S JUST A WORD THAT EXPRESSES LOVE.

IT'S A FABULOUS WORD.

HE LOVES TARIFFS, HE HAS TOLD THE WALL STREET JOURNAL AND EVERYONE WHO WILL LISTEN TO HIM.

LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT THIS THEN.

WHAT ABOUT UKRAINE?

HE HAS ALSO SAID THAT HE WILL FIX THAT ON DAY ONE.

WE HEARD FROM THE CONSERVATIVE WRITER, THE HISTORIAN NEIL FERGUSON ON ANOTHER RADIO STATION, HE SAID THE UPSIDE COULD BE A TRUMP NATIONAL SECURITY TEAM COMMITTED TO PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, FORCING PERTINENT TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE.

THE DOWNSIDE COULD BE ISOLATIONISM.

HOPING FOR ACTUAL PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH AND BELIEVING THAT SHOULD MEAN, YOU KNOW, FORCING FOOD AND TO RECOGNIZE THE NEED TO COME TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE AND NOT JUST HAVE UKRAINE BEND OVER AND SURRENDER.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

>> I KNOW QUITE A FEW POTENTIAL MEMBERS OF TRUMPS GOING FORWARD NATIONAL SECURITY TEAM.

I THINK HE HAD THE RIGHT INSTINCTS DURING TERM ONE, WHICH IS THAT MOST OF THESE REGIMES, WHETHER THE IRANIAN REGIME, THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION , EYE CANCERS ON AN ORDERLY WORLD.

THE WAY YOU ERADICATE A CANCER IS YOU STRANGLE THEM FINANCIALLY FIRST SO THAT THEY DON'T HAVE THE FUNDING IN ORDER TO CREATE MISCHIEF.

HE WAS DOING THAT WITH IRAN AND VERY SUCCESSFULLY UNTIL THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION REVERSED IT COMPLETELY.

I'M WITH RUSSIA.

THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION'S SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA ARE BEYOND HALFHEARTED, VIRTUALLY NOTHING.

IT'S LIKE ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10, THEY ARE SANCTIONING THEM AT A 1.5 INSTEAD OF EIGHT 9.

I THINK THESE REGIMES ARE GOING TO NEED TO BUCKLE UP BECAUSE THEY ARE GOING TO LOSE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF THEIR CASH BEHAVIOR BACK IN LINE AND REORGANIZE THE WORLD ORDER AGAIN.

>> HE HAS SPOKEN ABOUT PRESIDENT PUTIN AND PRESIDENT XI JINPING.

HOW HE LIKES THE IDEA OF STRONGMEN AROUND THE WORLD.

ARE YOU SURPRISED, AS MUCH OF THE WORLD IS, THAT DONALD TRUMP, AS EVERYBODY SAID, APPEARS TO BE FINISHED.

J.D.

VANCE CALLED IT THE GREATEST COMEBACK IN AMERICAN POLITICAL HISTORY BUT HE WAS NOT DISQUALIFIED BY JANUARY 6, WHICH YOU ALSO OPPOSED.

THE CRIMINAL INDICTMENTS, THE OVERTURNING OF ROE VERSUS WADE BY HIS SUPREME COURT.

NONE OF THIS DISQUALIFIED HIM.

THE CIVIL SUIT THAT HE HAD TO PAY FOR SEXUAL PREDATION, ET CETERA.

ARE YOU SURPRISED AGAIN THAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE VOTED FOR THIS PERSON?

>> THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE PRETTY SMART AT THE END OF THE DAY.

I KNOW HILLARY CLINTON CALLED THEM A BASKET OF DEPLORABLES BUT THEY ARE FAR FROM THAT.

I THINK THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE INCREDIBLE WISDOM.

THEY'VE TAKEN ALL OF THE INFORMATION INCLUDING ALL OF THE PROSECUTIONS, THE SEXUAL MISCONDUCT ISSUES.

BASICALLY, THEY HAVE TAKEN IN TRUMP AS A PACKAGE AND HAVE MADE A DECISION THAT NONE OF THESE ARE THE HOLLOW FIND.

AND I THINK THAT TRUMP COME BACK AS A LESSON TO YOUNG PEOPLE WHICH IS RESILIENCE AND PERSISTENCE, NEVER, EVER, EVER GIVE UP AND I THINK THAT IS SOMETHING THAT THE U.S.

STANDS FOR AND I THINK DONALD TRUMP PERSONIFIES THAT.

>> AMBASSADOR GORDAN SONDLAND, THANK YOU VERY MUCH INDEED.

>> NOW MAYBE A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE.

LEADERS ACROSS THE WORLD HAVE BEEN CONGRATULATING TRUMP ON REGAINING THE PRESIDENCY.

ONLY THE SECOND TIME THIS HAPPENED.

HOW WOULD THE UNIQUELY TRANSACTIONAL FOREIGN-POLICY SHAPE THE WORLD OVER THE NEXT FOUR YEARS?

FROM UKRAINE TO THE MIDDLE EAST.

FIRST PART SAYS NOTHING HAS CHANGED.

THE FOREIGN MINISTRY RELEASED THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT.

NO ILLUSIONS REGARDING THE PRESIDENT-ELECT WHO IS WELL KNOWN IN RUSSIA OR THE NEW CONGRESS WHERE REPUBLICANS HAVE REPORTEDLY WON CONTROL.

THE U.S. RULING POLITICAL ELITE AND ADHERES TO ANTI-RUSSIA POLICIES AND THE PRINCIPLE OF CONTAINING MOSCOW.

THIS LINE DOES NOT CHANGE DEPENDING ON CHANGES IN AMERICA'S POLITICAL PARAMETERS.

LET'S TALK TO THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA, NOW EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE McCANN INSTITUTE.

WILL COME TO THE PROGRAM.

YOU WILL LISTEN TO AMBASSADOR SONDLAND THERE.

WHAT DO YOU THINK, FIRST OF ALL, PEOPLE LIKE VLADIMIR PUTIN OR XI JINPING I GOING TO LEARN FROM THIS ELECTION?

>> WELL, THANK YOU AGAIN FOR HAVING ME ON AGAIN.

I WOULD SAY WITH THE WORLD LEADERS ARE GOING TO TAKE AWAY FROM THIS IS THAT AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE VERY HAPPY TO LET DONALD TRUMP LEAD THE WAY ON FOREIGN-POLICY , AND THAT THEY MAY PREFER AN ISOLATIONIST FOREIGN POLICY, WHICH PLAYS TO THE ADVANTAGE OF PUTIN AND PRESIDENT G BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT A STRONG LEADER ON THE INTERNATIONAL STAGE.

>> DO YOU BELIEVE HE CAN AS AMBASSADOR SONDLAND SAID, UP THE SANCTIONS?

THE SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA OR UKRAINE OR CONVINCE PRESIDENT XI OF CHINA THAT HE BETTER PLAY BALL ON TRADE OR ELSE .

>> I THINK THESE ARE TWO SEPARATE THINGS.

WHEN I LISTEN TO PRESIDENT ELECT TRUMP TALK ABOUT RUSSIA AND UKRAINE, IT'S VERY CLEAR GETTING DIRECTLY WITH VLADIMIR PUTIN WHO HE THINKS IS A STRONG MAN.

HE HAS THIS AFFINITY FOR THESE STRONGMEN.

HE HAS ALWAYS DEMONSTRATED AN INTEREST IN MAKING PRESIDENT PUTIN HAPPY, NOT DISAPPOINTING HIM, WORKING WITH HIM.

I THINK WHEN IT COMES TO STANDING UP FOR UKRAINE, UNFORTUNATELY, PRESIDENT TRUMP IS NOT GOING TO BE INTERESTED IN DOING THAT.

WHEN IT COMES TO PRESIDENT XI, THEY ARE IT IS MORE COMPLICATED.

BECAUSE I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP DOES FEEL LIKE CHINA HAS, TO USE THE PHRASE, TAKING THE UNITED STATES TO THE CLEANERS.

THEY HAVE STOLEN OUR INTERNATIONAL PROPERTY.

FLOODED THE MARKETS WITH CHEAP GOODS.

HE LAST BACK WITH TARIFFS AND HAS MANY CLEAR THAT HE WILL CONTINUE TO DO THAT GOING FORWARD.

I WOULD BE TOUGH ON CHINA WHEN IT COMES TO TRADE.

PROVIDING DUAL USE AND OTHER MACHINERY ELECTRONICS EQUIPMENT, DRONES, AND THAT HER TO RUSSIA TO HELP THE WAR EFFORT, I'M NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL MAKE THAT A PRIORITY AT ALL , I'M SORRY TO SAY.

>> IS YOU BEEN LOOKING AND IS SPENDING TIME IN UKRAINE, YOU OBVIOUSLY KNOW THIS VERY, VERY WELL.

PRESIDENT ZELENSKY DID WHAT ALL THE OTHER LEADERS HAVE DONE AND CONGRATULATED TRUMP.

HE TALKED ABOUT BELIEVING IN THE PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH PRINCIPAL.

BUT OBVIOUSLY HE SEES IT AS BOLSTERING HIS STRENGTH SO HE CAN GET PEACE FROM A POSITION OF STRENGTH.

IS THAT LIKELY AT ALL?

WHAT DO YOU THINK IS IN AMERICA AND TRUMPS INTEREST WHEN IT COMES TO RESOLVING THE WAR IN UKRAINE?

>> I MEAN CLEARLY --I JUST CAME BACK FROM UKRAINE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

UKRAINIANS WERE ALREADY DEMORALIZED BECAUSE THEY ARE LOSING PEOPLE.

NOT JUST ON THE BATTLEFIELD.

GOES OVERSEAS, TO FIGHT THE WAR, IT'S A DRAIN ON THEM.

IT'S A DRAIN ON THE ELECTION TO BE OVER WITH IT IF YOU WILL, HOPING FOR A BETTER OUTCOME.

I DON'T THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL BE COMMITTED TO ACHIEVING A GOOD PIECE, A JUST PEACE FOR UKRAINE USING AMERICAN STRENGTH.

HE HAS USED THAT TERM WHICH AS YOU KNOW IS A TERM THAT RONALD REAGAN COINED AND ACTUALLY EXERCISED QUITE EFFECTIVELY.

BUT I THINK THAT PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY AND REMINDING TRUMP THAT HE USED THOSE WORDS WHEN I SPOKE TOGETHER WHEN THEY MET EARLIER THIS YEAR, IS TRYING TO NUDGE PRESIDENT TRUMP IN THAT DIRECTION.

AGAIN, THE QUESTION IS WHAT KIND OF PEACE?

AGAIN, YOU HEARD ME SAY THAT I DON'T THINK HE WILL HELP GET A JUST PEACE FOR UKRAINE.

BUT OF COURSE WE HAVE TO DO EVERYTHING WE CAN IN THE UNITED STATES TO PUSH FOR THAT.

>> LET'S GET A LITTLE BIT OF THE LATEST UPDATE.

UKRAINE COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF HAS SAID THE SITUATION ON THE FRONT LINE, QUOTE, REMAINS DIFFICULT.

CERTAIN AREAS REQUIRE CONSTANT RENEWAL OF RESOURCES IN UKRAINIAN UNITS.

WE TALKED ABOUT HOW THEY ARE REALLY UNDER PRESSURE.

WE KNOW THAT 10,000 NORTH KOREAN TROOPS ARE IN RUSSIA'S KURSK REGION AND THAT RUSSIA IS PUSHING THE UKRAINIAN FORCES BACK.

J.D.

VANCE, VICE PRESIDENT-ELECT, IS OPENLY OPPOSED TO FUNDING UKRAINE.

AGAIN, WHAT HAPPENS?

IF TRUMP CAN'T GET A NEGOTIATION, IS FUNDING ALSO AT RISK FOR THE UKRAINIANS TO FIGHT ON?

>> WELL, THIS IS WHERE THE U.S. CONGRESS COMES INTO PLAY, BECAUSE FUNDING IS SOMETHING THAT CONGRESS AUTHORIZES.

OF COURSE, THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH HAS TO, BY LAW, DO WHAT CONGRESS SAYS WHEN IT COMES TO TRUMP REFUSED TO SPEND THE MONEY THAT CONGRESS AUTHORIZED AND THERE WAS AN IMPEACHMENT BECAUSE OF THAT, HE COULD BREAK THE CONSTITUTION AND WE CAN'T RULE THAT OUT.

HAVING SAID THAT, I THINK CONGRESS WILL EXERCISE ITS PREROGATIVES.

THERE IS STILL BIPARTISAN SUPPORT.

WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH SOME OF THESE NEW MEMBERS OF THE SENATE.

HAVING SAID THAT, THE UNITED STATES IS NOT THE ONLY POWER THAT HAS A SAY IN THIS.

THE EUROPEANS WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING SUPPORT.

PRESIDENT TRUMP'S VICTORY WILL PROVIDE SOME ENCOURAGEMENT TO PEOPLE LIKE VIKTOR ORBAN TO TRY TO BLOCK ASSISTANCE.

BUT THERE ARE FROZEN RUSSIAN ASSETS OF ABOUT $300 BILLION.

MAYBE NOW THE EUROPEANS WILL DECIDE TO UNFREEZE THEM AND GIVE THEM TO UKRAINE.

DON'T FORGET THAT UKRAINE IS ON THE PATH TO EU CITIZENSHIP.

THAT WILL HELP THEM ECONOMICALLY.

THE DAY, IF THEY HAVE TO TAKE AN UNJUST PEACE, THEY SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO PROTECT THEIR SOVEREIGNTY.

IF THEY DON'T GET ALL THEIR LAND BACK, THEY SHOULD PROTECT THEIR SOVEREIGNTY.

ULTIMATELY, AT SOME POINT, THERE HAS TO BE JUSTICE FOR THE TREMENDOUS HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS THEY HAVE COMMITTED.

>> TALKING ABOUT THE PARTNERSHIP THAT NEEDS TO CONTINUE, THE HEAD OF NATO, THE NEW HEAD OF NATO HAS ALSO CONGRATULATED HIM.

HE KNOWS TRUMP PRETTY WELL AND HE HAS INTERACTED WITH HIM.

WHAT IS AT STAKE FOR EUROPE AND WHAT DO YOU THINK TRUMP 2.0 WILL MEAN FOR THE NATO ALLIANCE?

>> THIS IS A REALLY DANGEROUS MOMENT RIGHT NOW, REGARDLESS OF WHO WON THE ELECTION.

RIGHT NOW RUSSIA IS PROBING AND TESTING NATO.

OVER THE LAST SUMMER AND FALL, RUSSIA HAS UNLEASHED SABOTAGE OPERATIONS ON THE FRENCH METRO GERMANY.

THERE WAS A STORY IN THE WALL STREET JOURNAL RECENTLY ABOUT CARGO AND COMMERCIAL SHIPS THAT THE RUSSIANS TRIED TO ACTUALLY PUT EXPLOSIVE DEVICES ON, MEANING PEOPLE WOULD HAVE DIED.

THEY TRIED TO ASSASSINATE THE CEO OF A LARGE GERMAN DEFENSE COMPANY PROVIDING ASSISTANCE TO UKRAINE, SO THE RUSSIANS HAVE --THERE WAS ALSO SOME SORT OF EFFORT TO PROBE FINISH WATER TREATMENT FACILITIES.

SO THEY ARE PROBING, USING OPERATIVES AND OTHER ELEMENTS TO PROBE WHETHER NATO WILL DO ANYTHING IN RESPONSE TO THE SABOTAGE OPERATIONS.

THE FACT THAT WE'VE BEEN PRETTY QUIET ABOUT THEN WORRIES ME BECAUSE IT MAY EMBOLDEN PUTIN TO REALLY TRY TO TEST NATO.

AT THE END OF THE DAY, TO TEST NATO MEANS POTENTIALLY WAR BETWEEN RUSSIA AND NATO.

WHICH I'M SURE TRUMP DOES NOT WANT, BUT WHAT YOU HAVE TO DO TO AVOID A WERE --WAR MAKE SURE HIS FOREIGN-POLICY IS DEFEATED.

>> IN A PICTURE, RELATED, OBVIOUSLY, THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION WAS COMMITTED TO DEMOCRACY.

DEMOCRACY SUMMITS EVERY YEAR OF HIS PRESIDENCY.

THAT WAS HIS PLATFORM FOR A LONG TIME.

CERTAINLY VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS WAS ALSO FOCUSED ON THAT HEAVILY DURING HER CAMPAIGN.

AND YET IT APPEARS THAT AUTOCRATS ALL OVER THE WORLD ARE THE ONES WHO ARE MOST CONGRATULATING DONALD TRUMP.

OTHERS ARE, BUT YOU KNOW THAT THE WESTERN ALLIANCE IS QUITE NERVOUS , TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO OFFSET THE WORST, MOST EXTREME INSTINCTS AND KEEP THE ALLIANCE TOGETHER.

WHILE THE OTHERS, RUSSIA, CHINA, HAPPY TO SEE THE ALLIANCE FRAGMENT.

WHAT DO YOU SEE IN TERMS OF THE SURVIVAL OF THE POST-WORLD WAR II DEMOCRATIC ORDER?

>> IT'S GOING TO BE MORE OF A CHALLENGE, TO ENSURE THE SURVIVAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER.

WE SEE COUNTRIES LIKE INDONESIA.

THE INDONESIAN PRESIDENT JUST WENT TO CHINA.

THAT WOULD NOT HAVE HAPPENED IF THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT WAS NOT WORRIED ABOUT FRANKLY TRUMP COMING INTO POWER AND CHINA HAVING GREATER INFLUENCE.

IT IS A REALITY THAT NOW IT'S GOING TO BE HARDER FOR DEMOCRATS ALL OVER THE WORLD TO FIGHT FOR THEIR RIGHTS, AND THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER IS GOING TO BE UNDER GREATER STRESS.

I DON'T HAVE ANY GOOD NEWS IN THIS DEPARTMENT.

THIS IS ACTUALLY MAKING US, PUTTING US IN GREATER DANGER.

>> EVELYN FARKAS, THANK YOU VERY MUCH INDEED.

NOW TO ISRAEL, WHERE PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU TO --HAS FIRED HIS DEFENSE MINISTER AFTER CLAIMING THERE WAS NO STRATEGY TO THE WAR ON GAZA AND NO CEASE-FIRE DEAL TO RETURN ISRAELI HOSTAGES.

NOW THERE IS ADDITIONAL CONSIDERING REMOVING THE IDF CHIEF OF STAFF, BOTH OF WHOM ADMITTED FAILURES OVER THE HAMAS INVASION AND SLAUGHTER OF OCTOBER 7th.

THIS COMES AS ISRAEL CONTINUES TO TARGET NORTHERN GAZA ESPECIALLY WHICH MANY FEAR WILL LEAD TO THE PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT OF PALESTINIAN RESIDENTS THERE.

ANOTHER BLOW TO BELEAGUERED GAZANS WHO HAVE ALREADY FACED A YEAR OF UNRELENTING BOMBARDMENT AND WAR.

I'VE BEEN DIGGING WITH THE SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE NORWEGIAN REFUGEE COUNCIL, WHICH RELENTLESSLY TRIES TO GET DESPERATELY NEEDED HUMANITARIAN SUPPLIES INTO THE GAZA STRIP.

JAN, WELCOME BACK TO THE PROGRAM.

>> THANK YOU.

>> YOU WERE LAST THERE.

WE LAST TALKED TO YOU IN GAZA LAST FEBRUARY.

I JUST WANT TO KNOW FROM YOUR BIRD'S-EYE VIEW, HOW HAVE THINGS CHANGED FOR THE PEOPLE?

>> IT IS SO MUCH WORSE.

I AM REALLY SHAKEN TO HAVING BEEN IN GAZA CITY ALL DAY TODAY AND IN RAFAH YESTERDAY.

GAZA IS DESTROYED.

THERE IS NO OTHER WAY TO DESCRIBE IT.

IT IS A DENSELY POPULATED URBAN AREA, FILLED TO THE BRIM WITH REFUGEES TO START WITH AND IT IS DESTROYED.

THERE ARE TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DEAD PEOPLE, AND MOST OF THE FAMILIES THAT I MEET, INCLUDING MY OWN CAUSE OF, PALESTINIAN COLLEAGUES, THEY HAVE BEEN CHASED AROUND THE MAP HERE 10 TIMES.

THEY HAVE LOST THEIR HOME WITH THEIR RELATIVES, THE HOME OF THEIR UNCLE, ET CETERA.

THEY ARE REALLY AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PIT.

THIS SENSELESS WAR HAS TO END.

IT IS NOT SELF-DEFENSE, AS IT AND ITS ALLIES LIKE THE UNITED STATES.

THIS IS UNLAWFUL DESTRUCTION OF A CIVILIAN SOCIETY.

>> OKAY, LET ME ASK YOU.

YOU MENTIONED THE UNITED DATES.

THERE WAS AN ELECTION AS YOU KNOW.

DONALD TRUMP HAS WON.

I WANT TO KNOW WHAT YOU THINK --I REALIZE IT IS EARLY DAYS, BUT BASED ON THE PAST, THERE WILL BE A DIFFERENT APPROACH BY TRUMP AND THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION AND IF SO, WHAT?

>> WE GOT SOME HUMANITARIAN HELP FROM THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, BUT THEY WERE INCAPABLE OF DOING ANYTHING TO END THE VIOLENCE.

AND ALSO THE BESIEGE MEANT OF THE POPULATION THERE.

DONALD TRUMP HAS SAID I WILL END THE WAR, I WILL BRING PEACE.

HE SAYS HE IS A FORCEFUL POLITICIAN.

I THINK HE CAN EXERT PRESSURE ON THE STRONGEST PARTY WHICH IS ISRAEL AND MAYBE WORK WITH THE ARAB AND OTHER NATIONS TO MAKE THE PALESTINIAN SIDE COME TOGETHER, BE COHERENT, RECOGNIZE ISRAEL, RELEASE THE HOSTAGES SO THAT NOT MORE THOUSANDS OF CHILDREN ARE KILLED.

THOUSANDS OF CHILDREN ARE KILLED IN GAZA AND TENS OF THOUSANDS OF OTHERS ARE STARVING.

>> PRESIDENT BIDEN AND THE ADMINISTRATION SET UNLESS THE HUMANITARIAN SITUATION IS RESOLVED, THEY WOULD RECONSIDER THE RULES UNDER WHICH THEY DELIVER MILITARY AID.

THAT IS MEANT TO BE DECIDED IN TWO WEEKS TIME.

THAT 30 DAY PERIOD.

YOU CAN'T EVEN GET TO THE NORTH, RIGHT, WHERE WE HAVE HEARD THE U.N. SAY THAT THE ENTIRE NORTH FACES FANNIN.

>> THERE'S BEEN NO IMPROVEMENT, EVEN OF HUMANITARIAN AID REACHING WOMEN AND CHILDREN HERE.

WE NEEDED FIVE, 600 TRUCKS PER DAY, NOT JUST DELIVERED ACROSS THE BORDER, BUT TO THE PEOPLE OF GAZA.

50 HUMANITARIAN TRUCKS WERE DELIVERED.

30 DELIVERED PER DAY TO 2 MILLION PEOPLE IS NOTHING.

AND BUNCH OF THAT WHICH WAS DELIVERED IS NOW LOOTED.

IT DOES NOT REACH THE PEOPLE, BECAUSE IT'S BEEN BOMBED TO PIECES AND THERE IS NO LAW AND ORDER.

SO THE VERDICT IS THEY DID NOT DELIVER HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE, NOR THE CONDITIONS, AND THAT MUST HAVE CONSEQUENCES.

>> YOU MENTIONED ALL OF THESE PEOPLE BEING MOVED AROUND A LOT, AND WE HEAR FROM THOSE IN NORTHERN GAZA, WHICH IS AS YOU JUST SAID, CUT OFF, THAT PEOPLE ARE AFRAID TO MOVE BECAUSE THEY ARE BEING SHOT WHEN THEY MOVE AND THEY DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT TO DO ANYMORE.

THE GENERALS PLAN WHICH THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT DENIES THAT IT APPEARS TO BE IMPLEMENTED LIKE SURROUNDING AND BESIEGING CERTAIN TOWNS.

EITHER TO STARVE OR FORCE THEM TO SURRENDER.

DO YOU BELIEVE THAT IS HAPPENING?

>> WHAT I SEE, JUST HAVING COME DOWN FROM GAZA CITY, NEXT-DOOR TO THE NORTH THAT IS BESIEGED, THERE IS A STRANGULATION.

NO OTHER WAY OF SAYING IT.

OF MORE THAN 100,000 PEOPLE THERE.

I'M SURE THERE ARE SOME BAD GUYS INSIDE.

THERE ARE MANY MORE BABIES, CHILDREN, WOMEN, AND ASCEND.

BEING STRANGLED NOW.

STARVED.

THERE IS NO AID GOING IN.

I MET PEOPLE WHO HAD FLED THE CAMP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE BESIEGE MEANT AREAS.

IT.

THEY WERE STARVING.

I THINK IN THE MIDST OF THE CIVILIAN POPULATION, THEY FLED FROM CERTAIN DEATH TO THE RUINS OF GAZA.

GAZA CITY IS INCOMPLETE RUBBLE.

THAT'S WHERE THEY LIVE AND IT'S A SIGN THAT IT IS TWO AND.

ISRAEL HAS A GENERALS PLAN TO DEPOPULATE AND COLONIZE THE NORTH, THE REST OF THE PEOPLE WILL NOT ACCEPT IT.

AND I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL UNDERSTAND THAT IT IS VERY --THE COST FOR ISRAEL AND FOR ITS ALLY, THE U.S., WILL BE TO BIG IF THE WHOLE WORLD SEES THIS MASS SLAUGHTER OF PEOPLE AND THE COLONIZATION AND FORCIBLE TRANSFER, COLONIZATION OF THE ORIGINAL POPULATION IN GAZA.

>> TO THAT POINT, THE KEY MEMBER OF NETANYAHU'S COALITION SAID ABOUT TRUMP'S VICTORY THAT IT IS A TIME FOR SOVEREIGNTY IN THE WEST BANK.

BUT WE KNOW THEY ALSO BELIEVE THAT ISRAEL SHOULD RESETTLE GAZA.

I WANT TO KNOW WHETHER YOU THINK UNDER TRUMP WHO DID IN HIS FIRST TERM CUT FUNDING, CLOSE THE OFFICE, CUT $200 MILLION OF U.S. AID TO THE PALESTINIANS, WHETHER YOU THINK THAT ANY MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE U.S. VIEW THAT THERE SHOULD BE A TWO STATE POLITICAL SOLUTION, WHETHER THAT'S IN JEOPARDY .

>> I DO REGISTER THE SETTLERS AND THEIR REPRESENTATIVES IN THE GOVERNMENT AND THE INTERIOR WITH THESE CRIMINAL GANGS WHO HAVE BEAT WOMEN AND CHILDREN, BURNING DOWN HOMES, DEMOLISHING THE SCHOOLS.

THIS IS THE SETTLER MOVEMENT.

THEY ARE CELEBRATING.

I THINK THEY MAY BE SURPRISED.

DONALD TRUMP WILL HAVE TO LISTEN TO THE GULF COUNTRIES, ARAB COUNTRIES, SAUDI ARABIA.

AND EUROPE AND THE REST OF THE WORLD.

THEY WOULD SAY WE CANNOT AFFORD TO BE SEEN AS HYPOCRITES ON AN ASTRONOMIC LEVEL BY CONDONING HORRIFIC OCCUPATION IN PALESTINE.

PLUS WE ARE TRYING TO FIGHT BRITAIN'S OCCUPATION OF UKRAINE.

KNOW.

CAN I ASK YOU VERY QUICKLY FINALLY THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT HAS BANNED THEM FROM OPERATING A BOAT THERE.

THE IS REALLY GOVERNMENT TALKING ABOUT PRIVATE SECURITY FIRMS ESCORTING AID AROUND GAZA.

IS THAT POSSIBLE FROM YOUR PERSPECTIVE?

>> NO.

IT WOULD BE A CATASTROPHIC AND STRATEGIC MISTAKE.

NO ONE WILL TOUCH ANY OF THESE MILITARIZED POLITICIZED AID EFFORTS.

CONTRARY TO ALL OF OUR HUMANITARIAN PRINCIPLES.

NONE OF US IN THE U.N., THE GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS, THE RED CROSS WILL TOUCH IT.

MUST BE ABLE TO CONTINUE THE WORK OF EDUCATION.

CHILDREN IN THE SCHOOLS AND THE CHILDREN, ALL OF THAT IS IN DANGER.

IT HAS TO BE REVERSED.

YOU CANNOT CONTINUE BY TRAMPLING ON HUMANITY AS HERE IN GAZA.

>> THANK YOU FOR YOUR PERSPECTIVE AND ALL THE EXPERIENCE YOU BRING TO THIS DISCUSSION.

>> WILL THAT BE REVERSED UNDER A NEW AMERICAN ADMINISTRATION?

FOR MORE ON DONALD TRUMP'S REELECTION, HE HAS WON BOTH THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE AND THE POPULAR VOTE FOR THE FIRST REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE TO DO SO IN 20 YEARS.

WHAT MADE HIM SO SUCCESSFUL, CONSIDERED THAT THE POLLSTERS CALLED IT THE CLOSEST RACE IN AMERICAN HISTORY?

OUR NEXT GUEST HAS SPENT MONTHS TRAVELING THE COUNTRY, SPEAKING WITH VOTERS IN KEY SWING STATES.

THE NEW YORK TIMES POLITICS REPORTER, ALSO HOST OF THE RUN- UP OF PODCAST.

HE JOINS US TO TALK ABOUT HOW VOTERS VOTED THIS TIME AND WHAT MADE IT SO DIFFERENT FROM 2020.

JOINING US.

DONALD TRUMP RETOOK THE PRESIDENCY LAST NIGHT BUT GOING THROUGH SEVERAL DIFFERENT BATTLEGROUND STATES AND FLIPPING THEM BACK.

TOOK BACK WISCONSIN, TAKE BACK GEORGIA.

LET'S TALK ABOUT PENNSYLVANIA.

A PLACE WHERE DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS SPENT SO MUCH TIME AND EFFORT TRYING TO WIN.

DONALD TRUMP WON THAT.

>> I THINK THAT WAS FOR THE TERM CAN PAINT THE CROWN IN THE JEWEL.

THEY KNEW THEY HAD THE OPPORTUNITY IN SUNBELT STATES, RUST BELT DATES, PLACES THAT ARE PRIORITIZING IMMIGRATION.

THE DATA HAD TOLD THEM THERE WAS NOT AN OPPORTUNITY THERE.

WHERE THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN HAD AN IMPENETRABLE WALL WAS IN THOSE MIDWESTERN STATES, MICHIGAN, WISCONSIN, PENNSYLVANIA.

PARTICULARLY IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS WERE THEY WERE PUSHING THE IDEA THAT LATEBREAKING UNDECIDED VOTES WERE GOING TOWARDS THE DEMOCRATS.

I THINK WHAT WE SAW THOUGH WAS A KIND OF NATIONAL STORY INCLUDING PENNSYLVANIA BUT CONSISTENT EVERYWHERE ELSE.

IT'S AN UNPOPULAR ADMINISTRATION AND AN UNPOPULAR DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND THEY WERE PAYING FOR IT UP AND DOWN THE BOARD.

WE HAD BOB CASEY A POINT OR TWO AHEAD OF KAMALA HARRIS.

THAT SPEAKS TO HOW THERE WAS IN 2020 A DROP OFF.

A LOT OF THAT CAME FROM RURAL AREAS.

WE SAW DONALD TRUMP RUN UP THE NUMBERS OUTSIDE THE CITIES.

HARRIS WAS FRANKLY UNABLE TO MAKE IT UP IN THE SUBURBAN AND URBAN AREAS.

THEY WERE LOOKING FOR PHILADELPHIA ALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND FRANKLY, COULD NOT MAKE UP A GAP THAT WAS LARGER THAN THEY EXPECTED.

>> YOU WENT OUT WITH PEOPLE WHO WERE KNOCKING ON DOORS FOR SOME OF YOUR REPORTING.

WHAT WERE THE CONVERSATIONS THAT YOU HEARD LIKE IT?

>> WE REFOCUSED ON PHILADELPHIA, PARTICULARLY WITH LOW PROPENSITY VOTERS.

WE WENT OUT AND INTENTIONALLY CHOSEN OUTSIDE GROUP BECAUSE WE WANTED THEM TO BE A LITTLE MORE HONEST ABOUT SOME OF THE STRUGGLES DEMOCRATS WERE HAVING IN THESE COMMUNITIES HEADING INTO THE ELECTION.

FRANKLY, I THINK WE SAW SOME OF THIS PLAY OUT BUT IT WAS NOT A TURNOUT PROBLEM AMONG SOME OF THESE CITIES.

PLACES LIKE MILWAUKEE COUNTY IN WISCONSIN.

BUT YOU SAW DONALD TRUMP INCREASED HIS VOTE CHAIR WHICH SPEAKS TO A PERSUASION POINT THAT THERE IS SOME GROUP OF PEOPLE WHO FRANKLY JUST FOUND HIM MORE APPEALING THIS TIME AND I THINK THAT ACTUALLY TRACKED WITH SOME OF THE CANVASSING THAT WE WENT OUT AND SAW.

WE RAN INTO FOLKS HERE TALKING ABOUT TRUMP ON THE ECONOMY.

MOSTLY, THERE WAS A DISTASTE WITH DEMOCRATS.

A FEELING THAT THE PARTY HAD LEFT THEM BEHIND AND BECOME A SYMBOL OF THE STATUS QUO.

FRANKLY, THE MANTLE OF CHANGE THAT THE DEMOCRATS LEFT ON THE TABLE IN THIS ELECTION, DONALD TRUMP SEIZED IT.

>> MENTIONED MILWAUKEE AND YOU DID SOME REPORTING IN MADISON, WISCONSIN AS WELL.

THE COLLEGE STUDENTS THAT YOU SPOKE WITH, WHAT WERE THEIR CONCERNS?

>> WE WENT TO FOOTBALL GAMES TO LOOK AT THE GENDER GAP AMONG YOUNG PEOPLE.

THE DATA WAS TELLING US YOUNG WOMEN WERE GOING MORE AND MORE DEMOCRATIC AS YOUNG MEN WERE GROWING MORE INTERESTED IN AT THE PLACE WHERE MADISON IS LAST NIGHT, SOME OF THAT WE THINK WILL PROBABLY START TO BEAR OUT.

WE DON'T HAVE GENDER BREAKDOWN SPLIT JUST YET.

YOU SAW DONALD TRUMP DO BETTER, WHICH SPEAKS TO SOME OF THOSE YOUNGER MEN.

GETTING PULLED CLOSER AND CLOSER.

THEY WERE REALLY EXPLICIT THAT TRUMP WAS A MODEL OF MASCULINITY, NOT JUST THE BUSINESSMAN, BUT EVEN THE BULLYING AND INSULTING STYLE WAS FRANKLY, FOR SOME OF THEM, THE POINT OF DONALD TRUMP THAT HE OFFENDED SO MANY OTHERS IN THEIR LIVES.

THEY WERE TRYING TO THUMB THEIR NOSE AT THE ESTABLISHMENT, EVEN WOMEN IN THEIR LIVES.

THEY LIKE THE FACT THAT DONALD TRUMP WAS A VEHICLE FOR THAT.

I THINK THE TRUMP STRATEGY ON HIS ARMY OF YOUNG MEN WERE ARMY OF BROSE, PODCASTER'S AS ELON MUSK AND AIDAN ROSS WERE SHOUTING OUT ON STAGE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS AGO.

THE SAME GROUP THEY TALKED ABOUT ON THE SHOW, A PODCAST WITH A BUNCH OF FOLLOWERS, THEY WERE IN MADISON THE DAY THAT WE WERE THERE AND YOU CAN SEE THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF PEOPLE WHO SHOWED UP TO THIS PLACE TO REGISTER TO VOTE JUST TO GET A PICTURE WITH IT THEN.

I THINK THERE IS SOMETHING DIFFERENT THAT HAS HAPPENED ON THE YOUTUBE TIK-TOK GENERATION OF YOUNG MEN WHO FEEL AS IF HAVING THIS VERSION OF MASCULINITY IT HAS BEEN PRESENTED TO THEM BY CONSERVATIVES AND LIBERALS HAS BEEN DOING IS BASHING THE IDEA.

THE IDEA THAT MASCULINITY WAS TOXIC CAME UP OVER AND OVER.

I DON'T THINK IT WAS UNIVERSAL.

A LOT OF YOUNG MEN SAID THEY WERE VOTING FOR HARRIS, FELT COMFORTABLE WITH THE IDEA OF DETECTING ABORTION RIGHTS AND THINGS LIKE THAT.

THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT TOWARDS REPUBLICANS AMONG YOUNG MEN.

AT LEAST YOU CAN SAY THAT THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN LAST NIGHT THINKS THAT HELPS THEM WIN.

>> REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS WERE LITERALLY ON THE BALLOT IN MULTIPLE STATES.

ISSUE THAT GALVANIZED SO MANY PEOPLE ON THE LEFT.

TO THAT PAN OUT?

>> I THINK WE CAN DEFINITELY SAY THAT REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS WAS NOT PRIORITIZED ABOVE OTHER ISSUES.

I DON'T THINK IT'S A QUESTION OF THE LEFT.

WHAT WE SEE IS THAT REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS WERE MEANT TO TRY TO CUT THROUGH PARTICULARLY IN THE SUBURBS, PARTICULARLY TO GIVE PEOPLE INFORMATION STRUCTURE TO VOTE FOR HARRIS AND TRY TO CAST DONALD TRUMP AND REPUBLICANS LARGELY IS EXTREME.

ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WAS TRUE THROUGHOUT OUR TRAVELS IS THAT PEOPLE UNDERSTOOD DONALD TRUMP HAD A DIFFERENT POSITION ON ABORTION RIGHTS AND THE REST OF THE PARTY.

THEY WOULD SAY THAT OFTEN AS A REASON TO SUPPORT SOME ABORTION RIGHTS.

THEY DID NOT THINK TRUMP WAS LIKE AN X ESSENTIAL THREAT TO THE FREEDOM AND STILL SUPPORT HIM AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET.

I THINK WE SAW SOME OF THAT YESTERDAY.

I DON'T THINK IT IS THAT THE SPECIAL ELECTIONS WE SAW FROM DEMOCRATS OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS WERE FALSE OR SOMETHING, WHO VOTE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ARE JUST PRIORITIZING THE TOP OF THE BALLOT OVER EVERYTHING ELSE.

FRANKLY, THE DEMOCRATIC ARGUMENTS THAT ABORTION RIGHTS COULD OUTDO THE ECONOMY WOULD OVERCOME INFLATION, WOULD OVERCOME PEOPLE'S CONCERNS ABOUT IMMIGRATION, THAT CLEARLY DID NOT PAN OUT TO BE TRUE.

I THINK IT IS GOING TO BE INTERESTING, WHERE BOTH PARTIES GO NEXT YEAR, TOO.

DONALD TRUMP MAY HAVE FLIRTED WITH A DIFFERENT ABORTION POSITION AND THE REST OF THE PARTY BUT THE ECOSYSTEM IS ANTIABORTION IN A WAY THAT IS OUTSIDE OF THE MEDIAN VOTER IN THE COUNTRY.

I THINK BOTH SIDES OF HIS KIND OF AN OPEN QUESTION GOING FORWARD.

BUT DEMOCRATS THOUGHT IT WAS A SECRET ELECTORAL SAUCE THAT IT DID NOT TURN OUT TO BE.

>> LET'S TALK ABOUT A COUPLE OF STATES IN PARTICULAR.

GEORGIA IN 2020, WERE FAMOUSLY DONALD TRUMP WAS ASKING THE THEN SECRETARY OF STATE TO FIND THE 12,000 VOTES.

AND HERE WE ARE LAST NIGHT AND MARGIN OF 100,000.

HOW DO YOU ASSESS THAT?

>> IT IS A CONSISTENT STORY.

THE RURAL COUNTIES OF THOSE STATES ACROSS THE COUNTRY REALLY DID TURN OUT.

THERE IS A TYPE OF VOTER IN THIS COUNTRY THAT COMES OUT FOR DONALD TRUMP AND BASICALLY NO ONE ELSE.

I THINK WE HAD HINTS OF THAT BEFORE.

IT WAS A BIG STORY IN 2020.

THERE WAS AN IDEA, AND I THINK I HAVE THIS QUESTION, ABOUT WHETHER TRUMP WAS A CANDIDATE WHO COULD KIND OF SUMMON THAT MASS TURNOUT AGAIN, AND THIS VERSION OF DONALD TRUMP, COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ONES.

WHERE TRADITIONALLY REPUBLICANS HAD DONE WELL.

NOT ONLY WHAT BIDEN DID IN 2020, WHAT RAFAEL WERE NOT DEAD IN THE SENATE RACE.

BEING ABLE TO PICK UP SOME OF THOSE FOLKS.

IS THE KIND OF MAINTAINED THE GROWTH IN CITIES.

I THINK AS WE SEE IN THOSE BATTLEGROUND STATES, THE NUMBERS DID NOT ADD UP.

THEY DID NOT PERSUADE ENOUGH PEOPLE.

EVEN AS THEY RAISED THE TURNOUT, SOME OF THOSE PEOPLE WERE SEEMING TO BE PERSUADED BY DONALD TRUMP.

HE HAS A BIGGER SHARE OF FOLKS EVEN IN DEMOCRATIC AREAS.

IT'S NOT JUST THE RURAL TURNOUT, THE SUBURBAN EQUATION OR HIS ABILITY TO PICK OFF SOME BLACK AND LATINO WORKING-CLASS VOTES.

IT THAT HE DID EACH OF THEM THIS TIME.

I THINK IT IS A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY THAN 2016.

KIND OF TOLD YOURSELF IN 2016 THIS WAS A STORY THAT WAS ONLY ABOUT THE OTHER SIDE'S WEAKNESS.

I THINK YOU HAVE TO SAY IT'S ALSO A STORY OF HIS ELECTORAL STRENGTH.

>> THAT STRENGTH IS ALSO ON DISPLAY IN NORTH CAROLINA.

I WONDER WAS HURRICANE HELENE AN EVENT THAT CHANGED THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE?

>> WE WERE OUT IN , PARTICULARLY WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE A LOT OF THE STORM DAMAGE WAS.

IT WAS EARLY DAYS OF VOTING AND THERE WERE RUMORED FEARS THAT REPUBLICANS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO TURN OUT THE SAME NUMBERS BECAUSE OF THE DAMAGE.

THEY TOLD US THEY FELT IT HAD THE OPPOSITE EFFECT.

BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAD STRUCK SOME OF THESE AREAS, AND FRANKLY THE MISINFORMATION OR I WOULD SAY THE NARRATIVE WAS HIGH THAT THE DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR AND STATEHOUSE HAD ABANDONED THEM.

THEY WERE TRYING TO USE IT AS A MOTIVATING PIECE FOR PEOPLE TO GET INVOLVED.

EVEN IN THE PLACES WHERE WE WERE, EARLIER FLOATS WERE WHERE THEY WANTED IT TO BE EVEN AS THE RECOVERY WAS STILL HAPPENING.

I THINK THERE IS SOMETIMES A PRESUMPTION THAT WOULD STOP FOLKS FROM COMING OUT BECAUSE OF THE LOGISTICAL CONCERNS.

WHEN REPUBLICANS WERE SAYING NO, IT IS MOTIVATING MORE PEOPLE TO COME OUT, BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN SUCH A TALKING POINT IN THE MEDIA AND FROM DONALD TRUMP.

WE KNOW THOSE THINGS WERE NOT BASED IN FACT.

HE WAS CALLING AND SAYING THAT FEMA WORKERS HAD NO MONEY.

THE DEMOCRATS WERE NOT COMING TO THESE AREAS, THAT THEY WERE LETTING PEOPLE KIND OF STARVE.

THAT WAS NOT THE TRUTH.

BUT IT DID SET IN.

SO MUCH SO THAT WHEN WE WERE GOING TO EARLY POLLING LOCATIONS, FOLKS WERE REPEATING THOSE MESSAGES BACK TO US.

IN NORTH CAROLINA, THE ASSUMPTION IS THAT REPUBLICANS MIGHT BE STRUGGLING THERE UNIQUELY, AS DEMOCRATS COULD POSSIBLY SEIZE.

AND YOU KNOW, THAT DID NOT COME TO FRUITION, EVEN AS THE STATE REJECTED THE REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR, DEMOCRATIC ATTORNEY GENERAL CANDIDATE.

THERE WAS CLEARLY STILL A LOT OF FOLKS WHO SPLIT THE BALLOT BETWEEN JOSH NINE FOR GOVERNOR AND DONALD TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT.

>> WE'LL TALK ABOUT MICHIGAN RIGHT NOW AS WE ARE HAVING THIS CONVERSATION.

TRUMP LEADS BY ABOUT 100,000 VOTES.

AGAIN, WHICH 100,000 IS UP FOR INTERPRETATION.

IS AT THE UNION VOTE, THE ARAB- MUSLIM VOTE, WHICH HE THINKS BY THE WAY IN ONE OF HIS ACCEPTANCE SPEECHES.

>> AND LOOKING AT DEARBORN AND A COUPLE OTHER MAJORITY ARAB AREAS.

WE DID SEE HIM GROW WHILE DEMOCRATS DROPPED OFF.

WE DON'T KNOW WHERE THE HUNDRED THOUSAND EXACTLY COMES FROM.

IF IT WAS A STORY JUST ABOUT MICHIGAN, WE COULD SAY THAT THIS WAS SOMETHING THAT WAS SPECIFIC TO THE ADMINISTRATION'S POLICY IN PALESTINE AND GAZA.

I GUESS I DON'T SEE THAT BECAUSE IT IS SUCH A NATIONAL STORY.

IT SEEMS LIKE MICHIGAN WAS SWEPT IN WITH IT.

THE CENTER RACE, TAMMY BALDWIN IN WISCONSIN.

THESE PEOPLE WERE STILL THOUGHT TO BE AHEAD.

REALLY, IT JUST SPEAKS TO THE SENSE OF MALAISE.

LET ME SAY SOMETHING DIFFERENT.

ONE THING THAT SHOWS UP IN SOME OF THE MODELS IS THAT THERE'S A LOT OF EVIDENCE OF SOMETHING THAT WE SAW IN POLLING THAT WAS KIND OF QUESTIONED IT TO BE TRUE.

DEMOCRATS GOT BETTER IN LOW TURNOUT, HIGHER EDUCATION ELECTIONS.

MORE PEOPLE VOTING MIGHT BE BETTER FOR DONALD TRUMP.

THAT IS SOMETHING THAT POURED OUT IN THIS ELECTION.

IT WAS NOT FOLKS STAYING AT HOME THAT WAS A BIG ISSUE.

IT'S THAT AS MORE PEOPLE CAME, THE TYPE OF PEOPLE WAS A DIFFERENT VOTER FOR THIS CYCLE AND IT DIFFERENT FROM MIDTERMS, WERE INCREDIBLY MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR TRUMP AND KAMALA HARRIS.

I JUST THINK THAT THERE WAS A FEELING THAT APATHY WAS THE ONLY THING THAT COULD GET TRUMP ELECTED, WHEN IN REALITY, HE WAS ABLE TO SUMMON MORE FOLKS, AND I THINK THERE WAS A LITTLE FAILURE OF THE IMAGINATION TO BELIEVE HE COULD GET THAT MOVEMENT TOGETHER.

>> WHEN THE DEMOCRATS GO BACK TO TRY TO DO POSTMORTEM, WHAT IS THE LAUNDRY LIST OF THINGS THAT WILL HAVE TO CONFRONT?

IS IT JUST SORT OF STRUCTURALLY, DO YOU GO BACK LONG ENOUGH AND SAY JOE BIDEN DECIDING TO RUN AGAIN FOR OFFICE KIND OF TIED THIS CANDIDACY TO THE ADMINISTRATION, OR, YOU KNOW, A LONG LIST OF THINGS HERE.

WHAT DO THEY HAVE TO DO TO TRY TO RECONFIGURE THEMSELVES TO HAVE A BETTER SHOT NEXT TIME AROUND?

>> I THINK WE HAVE TO SAY THAT THE CORE ASSUMPTIONS THAT DEMOCRATS RESTED THE LAST FOUR YEARS ON HAVE BEEN PROVEN FALSE.

THEY CANNOT GOOD POLICY THEIR WAY INTO ELECTORAL SUCCESS.

DONALD TRUMP WAS NOT INHERENTLY UNACCEPTABLE.

DEMOCRACY WAS NOT A UNIQUE UNITING ISSUE.

ABORTION RIGHTS WERE NOT A UNIQUE UNITING ISSUE AND IT CAME TO THE PRESIDENCY.

SOME OF THE THINGS DID JUST NOT POUR OUT.

BUT I WOULD SAY ALL OF THAT IS PROBLEM, WHICH IS INSULATING THEMSELVES FROM THE REALITY OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S UNPOPULARITY AND THE FEELING AMONG THE PUBLIC THAT JOE BIDEN WAS NOT SET TO SERVE A SECOND TERM.

FOR THEM TO IGNORE THAT EVIDENCE AND FOR TWO YEARS TO TIE THEMSELVES MORE CLOSELY TO BIDEN TO BLOCK OUT THAT IDEA, ALL OF THAT BECOMES THE BIGGEST FACTOR.

TAKE THIS, FOR EXAMPLE.

ONE KAMALA HARRIS HAD THE CANDIDATES WHICH AND SHE WAS BEING ASKED HER TO CLARIFY POSITIONS FROM 2019 TO 2024, THERE WAS A SENSE THAT THIS RESTED ON THE INDIVIDUAL CANDIDATE AS A FLIP-FLOP HER.

PUTTING THAT IN SOME OF THE PUBLIC.

A LOT OF DEMOCRATS HAVE RECALIBRATED WHERE THEY WERE FROM THE 2019 PRIMARY UNTIL NOW.

A LOT OF THEM KIND OF SEE THE PRIMARY IS WILDLY OUT OF TOUCH WITH THE REST OF THE ELECTORATE WAS.

DEMOCRATS HAVE HAD AN OPEN PRIMARY IN THE LEAD UP TO THIS.

IT IS THE WHOLE PARTY IT DOES NOT FALL ON AN INDIVIDUAL KAMALA HARRIS.

EVEN IF SHE WOULD HAVE WON A PRIMARY THAT JOE BIDEN STEPPED OUT OF, IT WOULD ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY TO HAVE A NEW MESSAGE AND FOR THE CANDIDATE COMING INTO THE GENERAL ELECTION TO BE COMFORTABLE AT SOME DISTANCE FROM BIDEN.

THERE REFUSAL TO DO THAT EVERY STEP YEARS AGO OR EVEN AFTER THE CANDIDATE SWITCH WHERE SHE DID NOT WANT TO BREAK ON THINGS LIKE GAZA OR INFLATION.

ALL OF THAT NOW LOOKS SO MUCH WORSE IN RETROSPECT.

THE DEFERENCE TO BIDEN LOOKS WORSE IN RETROSPECT.

TO BORROW THE HARRIS PHRASE, THIS ELECTION EXISTS IN THE CONTEXT OF ALL THE THINGS AROUND IT.

THAT BUILD UP TO THIS MOMENT MATTERED JUST AS MUCH IF NOT MORE IN MY OPINION THAN THE LAST 2 TO 3 MONTHS.

>> LET ME ASK YOU SIMILARLY ABOUT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

AT THIS POINT, THERE HAVE BEEN A STEADY DRUMBEAT OF REPUBLICANS FOR THE LAST 4 TO 6 YEARS SAYING THAT DONALD TRUMP AT THIS POINT, IS THIS NOT COMPLETELY HIS PARTY?

>> OH, YEAH, THE QUESTION IS PASSED.

I THINK IT IS HIS POLITICS.

THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY WILL RECALIBRATE IN RELATION TO DONALD TRUMP.

I THINK THAT WE --I JUST THINK THAT IF THERE WAS ANYONE WHO THOUGHT THAT THE PARTY OF YESTERYEAR WAS RETURNING, THEY SHOULD PUT THAT NOTION --IN MY OPINION IT WAS THAT BEFORE.

NOW CERTAINLY.

THEY WILL TAKE THIS AS A LESSON THAT YOU DO NOT NEED NIKKI HALEY ON THE TRAIL IF YOU HAVE ELON MUSK.

YOU KNOW, THAT YOU CAN KIND OF RALLY THIS ARMY OF IDEOLOGY AND OF TRADITIONAL REPUBLICANS WILL COME OVER TO YOU AND YOU DON'T NEED TO PLACATE THE WEIGHT OF THE PARTY.

IF YOU ARE A TRADITIONAL CONSERVATIVE, IF YOUR MITCH TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE TIME, THE ABILITY TO SEE THIS ABERRATION IS GONE BECAUSE HE WILL REENTER THE WHITE HOUSE AND HE WILL DO SO WITH A CONGRESS THAT HAS BEEN RESHAPED IN HIS IMAGE AND THAT IS KIND OF A UNIFORM PARTY AROUND HIM IN A WAY THAT WAS NOT EVEN TRUE WHEN HE BECAME PRESIDENT EIGHT YEARS AGO.

>> HOST OF THE RUN UP PODCAST FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES AND POLITICAL REPORTER, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

>> THAT'S IT FOR OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.

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