Forest Fires in the Northeast? The New Realities of Climate Change

THE ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMIT THAT WRAPPED UP IN AZERBAIJAN OVER THE WEEKEND.

AFTER WAILING AND GNASHING OF TEETH OVER WHICH POLLUTING NATIONS SHOULD BE PAYING POORER NATIONS TO DECARBONIZATION MITIGATE THEIR CLIMATE CRISES.

THE DEAL STRUCK WAS ABOUT A QUARTER OF WHAT THEY HAD ASKED FOR.

THIS COP 29 IN OIL-PRODUCING AZERBAIJAN FOLLOWS LAST YEAR'S IN THE UAE, AND HAMMERED OUT A LANDMARK COMMITMENT TO TRANSITION AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS.

SAUDI ARABIA HAS BEEN LOBBYING TO DERAIL THAT COMMITMENT EVER SENSE.

AND HOPES DONALD TRUMP'S RETURN TO THE WHITE HOUSE WILL HELP GIVEN HIS DRILL, BABY, DRILL POLICIES AND CABINET PICKS FILLED WITH INDUSTRY EXECUTIVES AND THE REGULATORS.

WILDFIRES SPREAD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH INCREASING FREQUENCY.

THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THAT AND THE HARSH POLICY IS BEING FELT.

HE DETAILS THIS IN THE RECENT NEW YORK TIMES OPINION PIECE AND JOINS HARRY SRINIVASAN IN THIS DISCUSSION.

>> THANKS FOR JOINING US.

AMERICANS, AND NORTH AMERICANS IN GENERAL ARE USED TO SEEING NOW THE FOREST FIRE SEASON.

AND WE ASSOCIATE IT WITH, SAY, CALIFORNIA, MAYBE COLORADO.

YOU WROTE A PIECE RECENTLY THAT SAID LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, THE NORTHEAST IS BURNING.

WHY IS IT SIGNIFICANT?

WHAT'S THE CHANGE HERE?

>> I THINK WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS THIS CREEPING OF FLAMMABILITY.

LIKE SO MANY OTHER AMERICANS AND CANADIANS, WE ASSUMED 10 YEARS AGO THAT WILDFIRES WERE A CALIFORNIA PROBLEM, MAYBE A COLORADO PROBLEM.

MAYBE IN AUSTRALIA PROBLEM, BUT I LIVE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, TECHNICALLY A RAIN FOREST AND WE'VE BEEN HAVING TERRIBLE FIRE SEASONS FOR THE PAST DECADES.

ASIDE CREEPING NORTHWARD INTO OREGON, INTO WASHINGTON AND INTO BC.

AND SO LOGICALLY, YOU WOULD THINK OKAY, THIS IS STILL MOVING.

AND I THINK IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE I GREW UP, WE ARE IN A VERY FAMILIAR LANDSCAPE WHERE WE HAVE THIS SENSE THAT WE WANT TO BE TOUCHED BY THAT.

IT'S A WESTERN THING, AN AUSTRALIAN THING.

NICE AND WET HERE.

COOL AND GREEN.

AND WE HAVE THIS TREND IN HEATING, WARMING, AND DRYING.

SPREADING STEADILY AND MEASURABLY IF YOU TALK TO FORRESTER'S AND HYDROLOGIST, THEY HAVE THE INSIDE SCOOP ON IT.

THEY ARE NOT SURPRISED BY THIS.

THE UNITED STATES RIGHT NOW IS IN THE DRIEST YEAR IN RECORDED DROUGHT HISTORY FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTRY.

>> HELP OUR AUDIENCE DISTINGUISH IN THEIR MINDS WHAT MIGHT BE THE WEATHER VERSUS WHAT MIGHT BE CLIMATE.

RIGHT NOW AS WE ARE HAVING THIS CONVERSATION, I'M DOING THIS FROM NEW YORK CITY AND WE ASK ARYANS ONE OF THE LONGEST DRY SPELLS.

WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THIS FROM A MONTH AND A HALF WITHOUT RAIN.

HELP US PUT THAT IN PERSPECTIVE THAT IT'S MAYBE NOT JUST THIS YEAR OR THIS CYCLE WITH THE LONGER TRENDLINES.

>> SO THERE ARE THESE TWO TRACKS THAT WE ARE ON AND ONE IS NATURAL LIMIT FLUCTUATION.

WE HAVE WARM YEARS, COLD YEARS, SNOWY WINTERS, DRY WINTERS, BUT THEN YOU ALSO HAVE -- THAT'S NATURAL TO SEE FLUCTUATION THERE.

ON TOP OF THAT, THOUGH, WE HAVE FOSSIL RULED THE MISSION DRIVEN CLIMATE CHANGE WHICH IS MEASURABLY HITTING THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE OCEANS.

SO THAT IS THIS EXTRA PUSH FROM BEHIND.

WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW IS RECORD TEMPERATURES.

WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST.

THINK ABOUT YOUR LAUNDRY OUTSIDE ON A WARM DAY, IT WILL DRY FASTER.

SO DOES THE FOREST FLOOR AND THE GRASSES.

WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT GLOBALLY, IT IS NOT JUST THE NORTHEAST WITH LOW RESERVOIRS.

ONE OF THE GREAT RIVERS OF THE CANADIAN NORTH IS RIGHT NOW AT RECORD LOW LEVELS.

THERE ARE HUGE LAKES IN THE CANADIAN SUBARCTIC.

AND SEES THAT ARE AT RECORD LOW LEVELS.

THE AMAZON RIVER IS AT A RECORD LOW LEVEL.

THIS IS A GLOBAL ISSUE.

WHEN YOU HAVE WARMER AIR, YOU HAVE MORE EVAPORATION.

>> WHAT IS SO UNSEASONABLE ABOUT THIS?

SO OUT OF THE ORDINARY THAT EVEN OUR BODIES FEEL LIKE THERE IS SOMETHING ELSE?

>> I GREW UP IN MASSACHUSETTS.

I REMEMBER SNOW FLURRIES IN OCTOBER.

I SOUND LIKE AN OLD MAN SAYING THAT BUT I DON'T THINK ANYBODY OF ANY AGE REMEMBERS HUNDREDS OF WILDFIRES BURNING UP AND DOWN THE I-95 CORE DOOR.

THAT'S NOT ANYBODY'S DIARY.

WE REALLY ARE GOING THROUGH THIS VISIBLE, MEASURABLE CHANGE AND WE ARE FEELING IN OUR BODIES.

IT'S CHANGING OUR CONCEPT OF WHAT THE SEASONS ARE.

SO NOW OUT WEST, PEOPLE'S CONCEPT OF SUMMER, RATHER THAN BEING THIS TIME OF LIBERTY, FREEDOM AND BEING OUT SIDE, WHEN IS THE SMOKE GOING TO ROLL IN?

WHEN AM I GOING TO HAVE TO STAY INSIDE BECAUSE IT IS TO SMOKY?

BETWEEN BRITISH COLUMBIA, AND WASHINGTON STATE, IT'S NOT A REALITY THAN ANY OF US GREW UP IN.

OUR CONSCIOUSNESS IS BEING FORCED INTO THIS NEW CONCEPT OF WHAT SEASONS EVEN NEED AND THAT CREATES A REAL DISSONANCE.

IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT, WE HAVE BEEN AROUND A LONG TIME, NOT JUST IN NORTH AMERICA BUT AS SAPIENS ON EARTH.

I HAVE NEVER HAD TO GO THROUGH A CHANGE THIS RAPID WHERE IN A DECADE OR TWO WE ARE ACTUALLY HAVING TO ALMOST REDEFINE WHAT SEASONS ARE.

>> YOU WROTE A FASCINATING BOOK CALLED FIRE WEATHER.

IN IT, YOU DESCRIBED THE FIRE IN 2016 IN ALBERTA, CANADA.

ONE OF THE THINGS THAT YOU MENTIONED IN THERE IS THAT ESSENTIALLY NOW FIRES ARE BURNING OVER A LONGER SEASON WITH GREATER INTENSITY THAN ANY OTHER TIME IN HUMAN HISTORY.

WHY IS THAT?

>> THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FACTORS.

ONE OF THEM, THE SIMPLEST ONE, IS THE HEAT THAT WE ARE GENERATING.

WHAT THE IRONY IS IS THAT OUR ECONOMY, OUR CIVILIZATION IS POWERED BY FIRE.

WE THINK ABOUT OIL AND GAS AS ENERGY, BUT IT DOES NOT BECOME ENERGY UNTIL WE BURN IT, SO WE ARE BURNING TRILLIONS OF FIRES AROUND THE GLOBE IN OUR ENGINES, IN OUR FURNACES, HOT WATER HEATERS, IN OUR STOVES GLOBALLY.

THERE IS A HUGE AMOUNT OF FIRE AND ALSO EMISSIONS COMING OFF OF ALL OF THOSE FIRES.

IMPACT ON THE ATMOSPHERE IN TERMS OF CO2 AND METHANE MAKING THE WHOLE PLANET HOTTER.

AND THE IRONY IS THAT MAKES THE PLANET MORE CONDUCIVE TO BURNING.

SO YOU CAN COUPLE THAT THAN WITH 100 YEARS OF VERY SICK DECIBEL FIRES OF RUSSIAN, ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AMERICA, SO NOW YOU HAVE THESE HUGE BUILDUPS IN THE FOREST INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST.

WHICH LOGOFF 150 YEARS AGO.

WITH THESE ELEVATED TEMPERATURES, MORE ELEVATION, YOU HAVE A DRYER FOREST, AND IT'S EASIER FOR THE FIRES TO GET GOING.

IN FORT McMURRAY, THIS PETROLEUM HUB OF CANADA, WHICH IS 600 MILES NORTH OF THE MONTANA BORDER IN THE SUBARCTIC, IT WAS 93 DEGREES.

THERE WAS ICE ON THE LAKES.

93 DEGREES.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAT DAY, MAY 3rd, 2016, WAS 12%, EQUIVALENT TO DEATH VALLEY IN THE MONTH OF JULY.

SO, WE ARE HAVING THESE CONDITIONS THAT CREATE OPPORTUNITIES FOR FIRE THAT WE REALLY HAVE HARDLY EVER SEEN BEFORE.

>> THERE WERE IN THE FIRE THAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT, 88,000 PEOPLE THAT WERE EVACUATED, RIGHT?

AND WHEN YOU SEE IMAGES OF FIRE APPROACHING DIFFERENT COMMUNITIES, ESPECIALLY THE UNITED STATES, WE SEE A MIX OF REACTIONS.

SOME PEOPLE ARE LIKE I CANNOT WAIT TO GET OUT.

I AM STUCK IN TRAFFIC.

THIS IS HORRIBLE.

DON'T WANT TO DIE HERE.

AND THERE'S OTHER PEOPLE WHO, SIMILAR TO A HURRICANE, AND UP TRYING TO HUNKER DOWN AND TRYING TO SAY THAT THIS IS MY REALLY, REALLY PRECIOUS HOME.

I WILL STAND HERE WITH A FIRE HOSE.

WHAT EXPLAINS HOW THIS AFFECTS PEOPLE, AND FIGURING OUT AND OF THEIR PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP TO THE ENVIRONMENT, THEIR BELONGINGS.

>> THIS IS ONE OF THE QUESTIONS OF THE DECADE.

AS FIRE IMPINGES MORE ON OUR COMMUNITIES BECAUSE IT BURNS FASTER AND MORE INTENSELY NOW BECAUSE OF HEAT.

IN FACT, THAT WAS A COVER STORY, THE CHANGING NATURE OF WILDFIRE, HOW FAST IT MOVES.

MANY PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN FIRE PRONE PLACES ESPECIALLY OUT WEST HAVE A KIND OF OUTDATED NOTION OF FIRE, AND WHAT THEY MIGHT DO TO COMBAT IT.

NOW FIRES ARE MOVING FASTER.

SUCH INTENSITY THAT THEY CAN PROJECT RADIANT HEAT CLOSE TO 1000 DEGREES.

A HUMAN CANNOT SURVIVE THAT.

WHAT IS YOUR HOME IS UNINSURED, OR WHAT IF YOU LIVE ON A RANCH AND YOUR GRANDFATHER FOUGHT FIRES AND YOUR MOM THOUGHT FIRES AND SO YOU ARE GOING TO, TOO, EXCEPT NOW IT IS 110 DEGREES.

AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THIS IS NOT JUST GOING TO BE A FIRE ON THE LAND.

IT WILL BE A FIRE STORM ROLLING OVER YOU.

AND I THINK THERE IS A NATURAL STUBBORNNESS AND I WISH TO PROTECT WHAT IS OURS.

BUT IF YOU DON'T HAVE THE MEANS TO REPLACE IT, YOU DON'T HAVE INSURANCE, WHICH FEWER AND FEWER AMERICANS HAVE NOW, IT'S GOING TO CHANGE YOUR CALCULUS.

THERE'S A FEW DIFFERENT FACTORS.

SOME OF IT IS GOING BACK TO CONSCIOUSNESS AND THINKING ABOUT HOW WE ARE NEEDING TO CATCH UP WITH THE CLIMATE.

THE CLIMATE IS MOVING BEYOND US RIGHT NOW.

WE STILL HAVE OUTDATED NOTIONS OF IT.

IT'S CAPABLE OF NEW OUTRAGES NOW.

WE HAVE SEEN IT IN THE FLOODING AFTER HURRICANE HELENE.

WE'VE SEEN IT IN THE FIRES.

REALLY SHOCKING ENERGY.

>> I WONDER WHY HAS IT TAKEN SO LONG FOR THE CAPITAL MARKETS, THE INSURANCE PROVIDERS TO REFLECT THESE CLIMATE REALITIES .

WE SEE NOW A NUMBER OF STATES WERE 12 INSURANCE CARRIERS ARE SO PULLED OUT OF CALIFORNIA IN THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS BECAUSE THEY DO NOT WANT TO BE ENSURING WILDFIRES.

WHAT HAPPENS TO CAPITAL MARKETS REFLECTING THE RISK APPROPRIATELY?

>> THERE IS EXTRAORDINARY DISSONANCE IN THE FINANCIAL SECTOR.

SO YOU HAVE THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY WHO DOES THE MATH, AND THEY REALIZE THAT WE CANNOT AFFORD THESE LOSSES ANYMORE.

I UNDERSTAND THAT 50 INSURANCE COMPANIES HAVE PULLED OUT OF LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA ALONE IN THE PAST FOUR YEARS.

I DID NOT EVEN KNOW THERE WERE 50 INSURANCE COMPANIES THERE.

THEY CAN NO LONGER AFFORD TO COVER LOSSES ON MULTIBILLION- DOLLAR DISASTERS, WHICH ARE HAPPENING ALMOST ANNUALLY NOW.

SO THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY IN A WAY AS THE GROWN-UPS IN THE ROOM ARE ACTUALLY OBSERVING THE DAMAGE DONE AND TABULATING IT IN THIS QUITE OBJECTIVE WAY.

MEANWHILE, YOU HAVE THE PETROLEUM INDUSTRY, FINANCIAL MARKETS WHO ARE VERY BULLISH ON ANYTHING THAT APPEARS TO MAKE MONEY.

THERE'S A LOT OF INVESTMENT IN OFFSHORE DRILLING RIGHT NOW.

THERE IS A TERRIBLE DISCONNECT AND CONFLICT OF INTEREST, EVEN WITHIN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS.

SO THAT'S ANOTHER RECKONING FOR THE 2020S.

WE HAVE TO SQUARE UP OR NATURE IS GOING TO SQUARE IT UP FOR US.

>> AT THE MOMENT, THE NOMINATIONS THAT PRESIDENT ELECT TRUMP HAS FOR HIS EPA CHIEF HAS GOT A FOSSIL FUEL EXECUTIVE.

AND HE HAS MADE NO SECRET ABOUT, TRUMP, THE PARIS ACCORDS, SO WHAT DOES THAT DO TO ANY KIND OF COHESIVE POLICY?

>> IT PUTS US IN A REALLY VULNERABLE POSITION, WHEN YOU EFFECTIVELY HAVE A POLICY OF LIMA DENIAL, WHICH THE PROVINCE OF ALBERTA DOES.

AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, THEY HAVE.

SO WHEN YOU HAVE THE LEADERS SAYING THIS ISN'T HAPPENING, THIS IS NOT AN ISSUE, AND YET WE ARE HAVING BILLION-DOLLAR DISASTERS THAT ARE UNINSURABLE EVERY YEAR.

WE ARE HAVING BIGGER FIRES, BIGGER FLOODS.

SO THERE IS -- WE CANNOT REALLY FUNCTION AS A SOCIETY, AND IN A WORLD THAT'S LIVING BY TWO DIFFERENT REALITIES OR DIFFERENT STANDARDS.

SO THE UPSHOT FOR THE CITIZEN IS SUFFERING AND CONFUSION.

THE UPSHOT FOR THE STATES IS THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE MORE INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY AT THE MUNICIPAL LEVEL AND THE STATE LEVEL FOR MANAGING THEIR OWN CLIMATE POLICY WHEN IN FACT, THE SCIENCE IS OBJECTIVE.

>> WHAT DOES THAT SCENARIO LOOK LIKE AS THE MATH BECOMES LESS INHABITABLE FOR DIFFERENT CLIMATE REASONS?

>> EXACTLY.

WHERE DO YOU GO?

THERE IS A CONTRACTION THAT WILL HAPPEN, DRIVEN BY THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY.

SOME PEOPLE STILL REMAIN WITHOUT INSURANCE.

YOU ARE REALLY EXPOSED AND THAT IS THE KIND OF VULNERABILITY THAT MAKES IT HARD FOR SOCIETIES TO FUNCTION WELL.

SENATOR SHELDON WHITEHOUSE FROM RHODE ISLAND PUT IT REALLY WELL WHEN HE SAID WITHOUT INSURANCE, CLIMATE DISRUPTION MAKES PLACES, MAKES HOMES UNINSURABLE.

AND WHEN A HOUSE IS UNINSURABLE, IT'S HARD TO GET A MORTGAGE.

WITHOUT A MORTGAGE, THAT IMPACTS THE HOUSING INDUSTRY.

WHEN IT IMPACTS THE HOUSING INDUSTRY, YOU DO NOT HAVE A FUNCTIONING ECONOMY BECAUSE THAT IS ONE OF THE PILLARS OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMY.

IT'S NOT ROCKET SCIENCE.

IT'S QUITE SIMPLE.

WHEN YOU ARE PUTTING THESE VULNERABLE SITUATIONS, WHEN YOU DON'T DEAL WITH CLIMATE, DON'T DEAL WITH CO2, AND BECOMES MORE FLAMMABLE, MORE FLAMMABLE, THAT WILL HAVE DIRECT, MEASURABLE IMPACTS AS WE ARE SEEING IN THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY ON OUR ENTIRE ECONOMY.

LOOKING TO ADDRESS CLIMATE IN A MEANINGFUL WAY WHICH WE ABSOLUTELY HAVE THE TOOLS TO DO.

>> IS THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY ABLE TO GET ITS ARMS AROUND IT?

IT SEEMS IN RECENT MEETINGS, THE STATES PRIMARY ECONOMIC BRIBERY IS IN FOSSIL FUELS.

THIS HAPPENED IN AZERBAIJAN.

I WONDER IF THEIR EFFORTS TO TRY TO CREATE FUNDS TO MITIGATE ON IT DISASTERS, BUT IT'S ALWAYS HUNG UP ON WHO IS GOING TO PAY FOR IT OR HOW MUCH ARE THE SMALLER COUNTRIES WHO MIGHT FEEL A GREATER BRUNT OF IT BY THEIR GEOGRAPHY, HOW MUCH DO THEY -- HOW MUCH ARE THEY ENTITLED TO?

HOW MUCH TO THE PEOPLE WHO ARE GENERATING THE FOSSILS AND OMISSIONS OF?

>> THERE IS NO MITIGATION FUND THAT'S GOING TO COVER THE GLOBAL CLIMATE DAMAGE BILL.

WHEN YOU LOSE AN ENTIRE ISLAND, AN ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOOD, MY UNDERSTANDING EVEN JUST FOR HURRICANE HELENE, WHICH IS ONE HURRICANE, I THINK THE TAB THAT IS OVER $150 BILLION.

MILTON RAN ON THE HEELS OF THAT, THAT'S RIGHT UP THERE, TOO.

NO ONE TALKS ABOUT HURRICANE JOHN WHICH CAME IN AT THE SAME TIME AND TRASHED THE RESORT CITY FOR THE SECOND TIME IN 11 MONTHS.

THAT'S A WHOLE TOURIST CITY.

THE WHOLE ECONOMY WIPED OUT.

WHO IS GOING TO BUILD THERE NOW?

THESE HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF PEOPLE ARE DROPS IN THE BUCKETS THAT'S REALLY GOING TO BE TENS OF TRILLIONS.

THAT JUST HIGHLIGHTS THE DISSONANCE.

THERE IS A DEEP LONGING THAT WE HAVE TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO.

AND THE UNEVEN TRANSITION INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY WHICH IS HAPPENING IN PARALLEL WITH OTHER THINGS THAT WE'VE BEEN SPEAKING ABOUT.

IT'S UNSTOPPABLE, BUT IT'S A PATCHWORK AT THE MOMENT.

>> THE BOOK IS CALLED FIRE WEATHER.

THANKS FOR BEING WITH US.

>> GREAT TO BE WITH YOU.