Fmr. NATO Deputy Commander on Russia and Ukraine

RICHARD SHIRREFF, FORMER DEPUTY SUPREME ALLIED COMMANDER EUROPE: I fear that we will see increased civilian casualties, increased humanitarian catastrophe and, ultimately, potentially, the leveling of cities. I’m afraid to say that I don’t think we have seen anything yet in terms of the destruction that’s likely to happen. If you want to see what the Russians do when they when they destroy a city, look at what happened to Aleppo. Look at what happened to Grozny.

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR: So what does NATO then do? Because all sorts of unprecedented reaction has happened. The E.U. has not only the sanctions with the United States, which the Russians admit are hurting them, but also for the first time purchasing and financing the purchase and delivery of defensive weapons to the Ukrainians.

SHIRREFF: Well, NATO and the wider Western world — it’s not just NATO — continue and ramp up the support of indirect — indirect support, logistics, weapons, ammunition, military equipment and the like, to help both — help the Ukrainians. However, it’s got to be indirect. Any form of NATO active support will generate NATO at war with Russia. And NATO can only do that if NATO has really thought it through and assembled the sort of force levels to be prepared to fight a general war with Russia.

AMANPOUR: And do you think that is something that’s in the offing?

SHIRREFF: I don’t know.

AMANPOUR: OK, let’s not go there.

SHIRREFF: I’d like to know — I would like to — until NATO does do that, A, the eastern flank is not going to be secure. i.e., NATO’s eastern flank is not going to be secure. NATO needs to do it anyway in order to deter any form of incursion.

AMANPOUR: Do you mean the sort of first Gulf War-style coalition of hundreds of thousands of forces and tank brigades and artillery?

SHIRREFF: It’s a good analogy. It’s that sort of size and scale of forces.

AMANPOUR: From the Baltics all the way down?

SHIRREFF: Effectively, we’re looking at a deterrent force. Assume the worst. Assume Putin takes Ukraine. Assume he hives off part of it and absorbs it into Russia in the east, Donetsk, Luhansk. Assume the rest becomes a sort of puppet state dominated by Russia. We’re looking at a new Cold War in Europe, which will require really significant deterrent forces from Estonia to Romania. But as far as the immediate concern is — force is concern, the absolute key is to, as I said when we last spoke, man the ramparts, by which I mean a similar force — this is old-style stuff. This is not winning wars by drones and special forces and cyber. This is old-style, heavy armored divisions, and as well as significant air. It’s an air-land battle, and it’s a maritime battle. But these are — this is going to require forces not seen on a scale in Europe since the peak of the Cold War.