AI and Drone Warfare: How New Technology is Transforming the Future of War

NOW, IT'S THE STUFF OF MOVIES, WHAT WILL WAGING WAR LOOK LIKE IN THE FUTURE?

OUR NEXT GUEST CAN TELL YOU, RAJ CHETTY INTEGRATED CUTTING TECHNOLOGY INTO THE MILITARY, THE BOOK IS CALLED UNIT X, HOW THE PENTAGON AND SILICON VALLEY ARE TRANSFORMING THE FUTURE OF WAR.>> THINK YOU, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING US.>> RAJ, LET ME BEGIN WITH YOU, THERE IS A SCENE OF YOU PILOTING AN F-16 DURING THE IRAQ WAR, YOU ARE ON THE BORDER OF IRAQ AND IRAN, TELL ME ABOUT THE EPIPHANY YOU HAVE .

>> IT WAS MY FIRST DEPLOYMENT AND MY FIRST GLIMPSE OF REALLY UNDERSTANDING HOW DIVERGENT THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE'S WAY OF BUYING TECHNOLOGY AND DEVELOPING IT FOR THE COMMERCIAL WORLD, SO I'M DEPLOYED, OUR MISSION IS TO SUPPORT GROUND TROOPS OFTEN ON THE BORDER AND WE ARE FLYING IN A CIRCLE AND WHILE THE F-16 IS AN AMAZING AIRPLANE, AT THE TIME IT DID NOT HAVE A MOVING MAP GPS.

SO I COULDN'T LOOK AT THE SCREEN AND TELL YOU WHICH SIDE OF THE BORDER I WAS ON.

THAT SAME YEAR, WHILE I DIDN'T HAVE IT IN THE JET, I COULD TAKE THE PREDECESSOR TO AN iPAD AND HAVE THAT IN YOUR CAR OR IN A CIVILIAN AIRPLANE I WAS LYING, SO MANY OF US IN THE SQUADRON HAD THESE PACKS IN THE READY ROOMS FOR PLAYING GAMES, SO WE WOULD STRAP THEM TO OUR LEGS AND FLY WITH THEM BECAUSE IT HELPED US STAY ON THE RIGHT SIDE.>> THEN YOU GO TO QATAR A DECADE LATER.

TELL ME HOW THINGS HAVE IMPROVED.

>> A DECADE LATER I HAD THE CHANCE TO VISIT WITH YOU WHICH WAS A WONDERFUL TRIP, THE COMMAND CENTER THAT RAN ALL THE AIR OPERATIONS FOR IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN AND SYRIA AND IT HAD REALLY CHANGED SINCE THE YEAR BEFORE WHEN I WAS IN UNIFORM, AND WE SAW A LOT OF DIFFERENT APPLICATIONS AND PROCESSES THAT PEOPLE WERE DOING.

THERE WAS ONE THAT WAS THE MOST INTERESTING, WHICH WAS HOW DO YOU PLAN WHERE A TANKER SHOULD BE TO GIVE GAS TO A FIGHTER JET?

AND THAT PLAN WAS BEING DONE ON A WHITEBOARD WITH MAGNETIC PUCKS AND DRY ERASE MARKERS, AND IT WOULD TAKE THIS TEAM OF OFFICERS 60 MAN HOURS PER DAY TO MAKE THAT PLAN.

SO THIS WAS ONE ON THAT VISIT, WITH THE HELP OF THE DEFENSE INNOVATION BOARD, WE SAID WE WOULD GO SOLVE.

SO WE BUILD SOFTWARE TO AUTOMATE THAT SYSTEM AND WHAT WE DISCOVERED AT THE END WAS BY USING THIS AUTOMATED SYSTEM, WE COULD SAVE THREE OR FOUR SCRAMBLES PER DAY.

WHAT THAT MEANS, BECAUSE THE SYSTEM WAS SO HARD TO TRANSFORM, EVERY TIME A SOLDIER CAME UNDER FIRE FROM AN ADVERSARY, THEY WOULD SCRAMBLE FIGHTERS TO PROTECT HIM.

THEN YOU WOULD HAVE TO SCRAMBLE TANKERS AND THOSE TANKERS WERE SITTING AT BASES AROUND THE REGION.

IT SAVED THREE OR FOUR PER DAY, EACH ONE OF THOSE COST ABOUT $250,000, THE TOOL PAID FOR ITSELF IN A MATTER OF A WEEK.

BUT IT STARTED THIS REVOLUTION OF SOFTWARE FACTORIES AND AN EMPHASIS ON HOW IMPORTANT SOFTWARE IS FOR THE MILITARY.>> IT WAS A PART OF THE DEFENSE INNOVATION UNIT, EXPERIMENTAL, AND CHRIS, YOU HAVE GOTTEN INVOLVED WITH IT AS WELL, NOT FROM A MILITARY BACKGROUND, TELL ME HOW YOU GOT INVOLVED AND WHAT YOU THOUGHT ON THESE TRIPS WITH RAJ .

>> IN 2016, IT WAS SUCH A MOMENT IN TECHNOLOGY, YOU HAD COPIES LIKE AMAZON, COMPANIES LIKE APPLE AND MICROSOFT, AND WALTER, EACH OF THOSE COMPANIES HAD A MARKET CAPITALIZATION THAT WAS ITSELF BIGGER THAN THE ENTIRE U.S. DEFENSE INDUSTRY COMBINED.

WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THE PENTAGON IS THAT THE LOCUS OF INNOVATION WHICH USED TO LIVE IN LABS AND OTHER MILITARY LABS A GENERATION AGO, IT HAS COMPLETELY SHIFTED TO THE COMMERCIAL SECTOR.

SO, SECRETARY CARTER WHO FOUNDED THE DEFENSE INNOVATION UNIT RECOGNIZED THIS TREND, THIS GENERATIONAL SHIFT.

AND HE KNEW THAT FOR THE MILITARY TO KEEP ACCESSING THE BEST TECHNOLOGY IN THE WORLD, IT WOULD HAVE TO BECOME, IN HIS WORDS, A FAST FOLLOWER OF THE COMMERCIAL SECTOR.

AND SAID THE DEFENSE INNOVATION UNIT WAS ESTABLISHED TO ACCESS THAT OTHER ECONOMY THAT IN 2016 WAS NOT DOING BUSINESS WITH THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE.>> LET ME READ SOMETHING FROM THE MISSION THAT YOU ALL HAD WHEN YOU WERE HELPING TO FOUND THIS UNIT, THE MISSION TRANSFORMED THE CULTURE OF THE MOST BUREAUCRATIC ORGANIZATION IN THE WORLD BY INFUSING ITS CLOGGED ARTERIES WITH THE NIMBLE DNA OF SILICON VALLEY.

IN OTHER WORDS, THE PENTAGON.

FIRST, WHY WERE THE ARTERIES SO CLOGGED?

>> I THINK THESE TWO WORLDS HAD DRIFTED, GIVEN THE ADVANCEMENTS OF TECHNOLOGY, SO THE SYSTEMS OF THE PENTAGON ARE REALLY GOOD FOR BUYING AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER, SOMETHING YOU ARE GOING TO KEEP FOR 50 YEARS AND YOU REALLY WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT ALL THE PLANNING IS DONE WELL.

BUT WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE ADVANCEMENTS OF SOFTWARE AND HOW FAST IT CHANGES, OUR IPHONES GET UPDATED ON A DAILY BASIS, OUR SYSTEMS WERE NOT BILLED FOR THAT.

AND THE REAL REASON BEHIND THAT IS, IF YOU THINK BACK TO THE 70s AND 80s WHEN WE WON THE COLD WAR, MILITARY AND GOVERNMENT R&D WAS THE LARGEST SOURCE OF INNOVATION IN THE WORLD, IT WOULD TRICKLE DOWN TO THE COMMERCIAL WORLD.

THAT COMPLETELY FLIPPED, AND BECAUSE OF THE HUGE CONSUMER MARKET FOR IPHONES, DRONES, COMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGY, SO ALL OF IT IS HAPPENING IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR.

OUR SYSTEMS NEEDED TO BE REFORMED TO BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT.

BUT, THERE'S ONE OTHER REALLY KEY THING, BECAUSE AT THE END OF THE DAY THESE ARE HUMAN ENDEAVORS, THEY ARE PEOPLE ON BOTH SIDES THAT NEED TO WORK TOGETHER.

WHEN SECRETARY CARTER CAME TO TALK ABOUT HIS DESIRE TO BUILD DIU IN THE VALLEY, IT IS THE FIRST TIME HE HAD COME IN 20 YEARS, THIS WAS AFTER THE EDWARD SNOWDEN REVELATIONS OF HOW OUR INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES WERE COLLECTING INFORMATION.

SO THERE WAS A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF MISTRUST.

THAT WAS A PART OF OUR MISSION AS WELL, HOW WE BRING THOSE WORLDS TOGETHER, SO WE HAVE TO REBUILD RELATIONSHIPS.

>> I REMEMBER READING IN THE BOOK, THAT CONGRESS BECOMES A PROBLEM FOR YOU.

YOU GO TO THE HILL AND THEY SAY YOU ARE SPENDING THIS MONEY COMPANIES IN SILICON VALLEY, WHY DON'T YOU SPEND IT WITH INDIANA?

WHAT IS THE PROBLEM WITH CONGRESS, DOES IT MAKE IT WORSE?>> YOU KNOW, IT WAS A CHALLENGE AND WE ARE NOT GOING TO SAY OTHERWISE.

SECRETARY CARTER FLIES ON THE AIR FORCE 2, SOME OF THE MOST POWERFUL PEOPLE IN SILICON VALLEY COME TO THE UNVEILING, AND TWO DAYS LATER WE GET A PHONE CALL FROM A FRIEND OF OURS ON THE HILL THAT SAYS I HAVE SOME NEWS TO SHARE.

YOUR BUDGET HAS BEEN CUT.

AND WE SAID, WHAT DO YOU MEAN, HOW MUCH HAS IT BEEN CUT?

AND THAT'S THE THING, YOUR ENTIRE BUDGET HAS GONE AWAY, THE UNION IS BEING SHUT DOWN BY CONGRESS.

SO OUR FIRST TRIP TO WASHINGTON WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A VICTORY LAP, WE WERE SUPPOSED TO BE MEETING WITH THE SERVICE CHIEFS AND SERVICE SECRETARIES TO FIGURE OUT THEIR TOP PRIORITIES.

AND INSTEAD, WE WERE MEETING WITH TWO STAFFERS ON THE HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE WHO HAD DECIDED FOR PETTY REASONS OF THEIR OWN THAT THEY WERE GOING TO MIX THE HIGH-PROFILE INITIATIVE TO GET BACK AT THE GUY.

THAT IS JUST ONE ILLUSTRATION OF HOW MUCH DIU HAD TO CUT AGAINST THE GRAIN NOT ONLY WITH CONGRESS BUT ALSO WITH THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, MANY OF WHOM IN THE DEPARTMENT WERE SKEPTICAL THAT SILICON VALLEY COULD PROVIDE TECHNOLOGY THAT THEY COULD RELY ON IN WAR.>> ARE YOU WORRIED THAT TOO MUCH INNOVATION COULD LEAD TO HUMANS NOT BEING IN THE CHAIN SOMEDAY?

>> THAT IS A REALLY INTERESTING DEBATE, WHERE DOES THE LINE AS A.I.

AND AUTONOMY CONTINUE TO GROW?

AND THE DEPARTMENT HAS BEEN PRETTY CLEAR FOR A LIFE OR DEATH DECISION, THERE IS ALWAYS A HUMAN IN THE LOOP.

BUT, YOU ALSO HIGHLIGHT A RAPID CHANGE IN HOW WARFARE AND HOW WE ARE GOING TO DETER WAR IS OCCURRING.

CHRIS AND I HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO VISIT UKRAINE IN OCTOBER TO SEE FIRSTHAND HOW A DRONE WARFARE IS CHANGING OUR WAYS OF THINKING ABOUT CONFLICT.

FOR EXAMPLE, JUST RECENTLY, IT WAS REVEALED THAT WE HAD SENT 31 BATTLE TANKS TO UKRAINE, THESE ARE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SOPHISTICATED TANKS IN THE WORLD.

AND 25% OF THEM HAD BEEN DISABLED BY KAMIKAZE BRANDS SO THEY HAD TO WITHDRAW ON THEM FROM THE FRONT LINES.

SO HERE IS A SITUATION, SINCE WORLD WAR I, MECHANIZED ARMORED WARFARE HAS BEEN OUR MAINSTAY AND NOW CHEAP LOW CLASS DRONES ARE CHALLENGING THAT.

SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO RETHINK HOW WE FIGHT AND WHETHER THE RIGHT TOOLS THAT WE ARE GOING TO EQUIP OUR MEN AND WOMEN IN UNIFORM WITH.

>> SUPPOSE YOU WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP SOMETHING THAT USED VISUAL AND FACIAL RECOGNITION AND PATTERN RECOGNITION AND IT WAS 10 TIMES MORE ACCURATE THAN A HUMAN PUSHING A BUTTON.

DO YOU THINK WE SHOULD GO TO ALL AUTONOMOUS WARFARE?>> THESE ARE CHALLENGING QUESTIONS WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH BUT IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT, IF AUTONOMY IS GOING TO LOWER COLLATERAL DAMAGE, IT IS GOING TO MAKE US MORE ACCURATE.

THOSE ARE ALL GOOD THINGS.

SO, HOW DO WE INCORPORATE THAT, YET STILL HAVE HUMANS ULTIMATELY MAKING THE DECISION?

LOOK, THE OTHER THING IS OUR ADVERSARIES, THEY HAVE A VOTE IN THIS MATTER, TOO.

SO, IF A POTENTIAL ADVERSARY IS USING THIS TECHNOLOGY AND THEY ARE USING IT DIFFERENTLY THEN WE ARE, HOW DO WE RESPOND TO THAT AND HOW DO WE DO IT WHERE WE MAINTAIN OUR AMERICAN LIBERAL WESTERN VALUES YET DETERRING CONFLICT?

THIS IS SOMETHING THAT PEOPLE WHO UNDERSTAND TECHNOLOGY AND WARFARE NEED TO COME TOGETHER AND THIS IS WHERE THINGS LIKE THE DEFENSE INNOVATION UNIT WILL HAVE AN IMPORTANT ROLE TO PLAY.>> CHRIS, AMONG OTHER THINGS THAT HAPPENED IN UKRAINE, ALL OF THE COMMERCIAL SATELLITES GET TOTALLY WIPED OUT BY THE RUSSIANS, EXCEPT FOR SPACE X, AND SUDDENLY YOU ARE DEPENDING IN UKRAINE ON A PRIVATE COMMERCIAL COMPANY THAT DOES IT BETTER.

IS THAT A GOOD OR BAD THING, TO HAVE TO SAY WAIT, WE DON'T NEED BOEING AND LOCKHEED, THESE COMPANIES CAN DO IT BETTER.

>> WELL, IT CERTAINLY IS A THING, AS YOU WRITE IN YOUR BIOGRAPHY ON ELON MUSK, THE FACT THAT A COMPANY LIKE STAR LINK CONTROLLED A SINGLE INDIVIDUAL WHO IS NOW MAKING DECISIONS ABOUT WHO TO EXTEND SERVICE TO AND WHO NOT TO EXTEND SERVICE TO IS A NEW REALITY IN THE WORLD.

AGAIN, THIS IS A PART OF THE SHIFT THAT WE CONFRONTED FIRSTHAND OF THE TECHNOLOGY ECOSYSTEM MEANT TO SERVICE THE CONSUMER MARKET JUST EXPLODING IN SIZE.

SO INCREASINGLY, IT IS GOING TO BE COMPANIES LIKE SPACE X, LIKE THE NEW BREED OF DEFENSE UNICORNS THAT ARE GOING TO BE PRODUCING REALLY POWERFUL TECHNOLOGY THAT WILL BE CENTRAL TO HOW THE U.S. MILITARY DEFENDS THE COUNTRY.>> LET ME PUSH BACK ON THAT BECAUSE I READ IN YOUR BOOK WHEN YOU HAVE ALL THESE GRANTS GOING OUT, INSTEAD OF GOING TO ALL THESE STARTUP COMPANIES, MOST OF THE GRANTS ARE GOING TO THE BIG BLOATED, OLD DEFENSE CONTRACTORS DOING COST PLUS THINGS, LIKE LOCKHEED.

>> YOU ARE EXACTLY RIGHT, THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE HAS A LONG WAY TO GO.

AT ONE LEVEL IT HAS MADE VERY IMPRESSIVE STRIDES, EVEN THE LAST 12 MONTHS BY ELEVATING THE UNIT WE USED TO SERVE WITH, THE DEFENSE UNIT TO DIRECTLY REPORT TO THE SECRETARY, CONGRESS ENSHRINED ITS MISSION IN LAW, THE BUDGET DEFENSE INNOVATION UNIT IS NOW $1 BILLION PER YEAR WITH EVEN MORE MONEY BEING SPENT ON IT THROUGH THE REPLICATOR INITIATIVE, THE MOST IMPORTANT INITIATIVE STARTED BY LLOYD AUSTIN TO DEVELOP AUTONOMOUS DRONES.

BUT, YOU ARE RIGHT, IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE BUDGET IS ACTUALLY GOING TOWARDS NEW SYSTEMS RATHER THAN LEGACY SYSTEMS, IT IS STILL A SMELLY FALL -- FAIRLY SMALL FRACTURE.

WE ARE AT RISK AS A COUNTRY BECAUSE IF WE ARE SPENDING MOST OF OUR MONEY ON THINGS LIKE TANKS WHICH CAN BE DEFEATED BY LOW-COST DRONES, OR FOR THAT MATTER, AIRCRAFT CARRIERS WHICH AS WE KNOW ARE AT INCREASING RISK OF BEING DEFEATED BY WEAPONS LIKE HYPERSONIC MISSILES, WE COULD END UP WITH A MILITARY THAT MAY NOT BE AS SURVIVABLE IN A CONFLICT IN THE FUTURE.

PEOPLE LIKE RAJ AND ME AND THE PEOPLE AT THE DEFENSE INNOVATION ARE GOING TO BE LOOKING AT HOW THE DEFENSE BUDGET CONTINUES TO SWING TOWARDS THIS NEW GENERATION OF COMPANIES AND WEAPON SYSTEMS AND HOW MUCH OF IT SWINGS AWAY FROM THE TRADITIONAL WEAPON SYSTEMS THAT FOR YEARS WE HAVE PROCURED.>> YOU TALK ABOUT THE CIVIL MILITARY INTEGRATION THAT HAPPENS IN CHINA, ARE THEY DOING IT BETTER?

>> THEY ARE BEING MORE DIRECTIVE.

CHINA CAN GO TO ANY START UP AND SAY YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE A CCP MEMBER ON YOUR BOARD, BUT THAT IS NOT HOW WE DO BUSINESS IN AMERICA.

OUR VERSION OF CIVIL MILITARY FUSION IS WORKING CLOSER WITH PLACES LIKE SILICON VALLEY.

PUTTING THOSE COMPANIES UNDER CONTRACT AND TRYING TO INCORPORATE THAT TECHNOLOGY.

AND REALLY, I THINK THE AMERICAN SYSTEM OF FREE FLOW OF CAPITAL, TALENT, IS REALLY HOW WE WIN AND WE DOUBLE DOWN ON THAT.

I THINK WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THAT WITH GENERATIVE A.I.

AND THE RISE OF THOSE GREAT COMPANIES HERE AND NOT IN RUSSIA OR CHINA.>> WHAT IMPLICATIONS DO THESE DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO DEFENSE INNOVATION HAVE IN RELATION TO OUR COMPETITION WITH CHINA AND ESPECIALLY THE FACT THAT SO MANY CHIPS ARE MADE IN TAIWAN?

>> WELL, IT NEEDS TO BE SAID THAT WARS ARE FOUGHT WITH STEEL AND IT IS VERY CLEAR TODAY THAT THEY ARE GOING TO BE FOUGHT WITH SILICONE.

IT IS A MAJOR SECURITY VULNERABILITY IN THE UNITED STATES, THE ONLY ADVANCED CHIPS WE USED TO POWER, THE AUTOMOBILES, PHONES, COMPUTERS ARE MADE ESSENTIALLY IN A SERIES OF FABS THAT EXIST ON THE EAST SIDE OF TAIWAN FACING CHINA 70 MILES OFF THE CHINESE COAST.

THAT IS A GREAT WORRY, IT IS THE REASON WHY THE U.S. HAS PASSED THE CHP ACT, SOMETHING THAT WE NEED TO FOCUS ON AS A NATION TO MAKE SURE THAT IT IS NOT JUST TAIWAN THAT HAS THE CAPACITY TO MAKE THE MOST ADVANCED CHIPS.

>> AND I WILL ADD TO THAT, AS WE THINK ABOUT THIS COMPETITION AND THIS SUPPLY CHAIN AND MANUFACTURING, THIS IS WHERE HAVING FRIENDS IS IMPORTANT.

WE HAVE A LOT OF ALLIES IN EUROPE, ASIA, AND I THINK DOUBLING DOWN ON THOSE IS NOT JUST FROM A MILITARY STANDPOINT BUT ALSO FROM A MANUFACTURING STANDPOINT, WILL ALLOW US TO MEET THIS CHALLENGE AND CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.>> ARE WE INTEGRATING GENERATIVE A.I.

INTO OUR WEAPONS SYSTEMS FAST ENOUGH?

>> WE ARE BEGINNING TO, THERE IS A TASK FORCE IN THE PENTAGON THAT IS WORKING VERY HARD TO EXPERIMENT WITH GENERATIVE A.I.

HOWEVER, THE WHOLE REASON WHY ASH CARTER CREATED THE DEFENSE UNIT IS BECAUSE THE MILITARY ESSENTIALLY MISSED EVERY LAYER OF TECHNOLOGY IN THE 2010S, IT MISSED THE CLOUD COMPUTING, IT MISSED THE SHIP TO MOBILE, IT ALSO MISSED THE RISE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE.

THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE COMPUTERS COULDN'T EVEN RUN AN A.I.

PROGRAM BECAUSE THEY WEREN'T ROBUST ENOUGH.

SO I THINK WE HAD TO WATCH VERY CLOSELY WHETHER THE DEPARTMENT IS GOING TO TAKE GENERATIVE A.I.

UP AGGRESSIVELY.

AND THE REASON WHY THEY MUST, THIS IS THE ONE ADVANTAGE OUR NATION HAS.

A LOT OF PEOPLE, CHINA, RUSSIA, IRAN CAN TAKE HARDWARE AND BUILD AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS AND IN FACT, IF YOU LOOK AT CHINA'S MANUFACTURING BASE, IT IS MANY TIMES THE SIZE OF ANY U.S. MANUFACTURING BASE COMBINED WITH THE EUROPEAN AND THAT OF OUR ALLIES, SO IT IS GOING TO BE OUR COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE?

IT IS GOING TO BE GENERATIVE A.I.

AND INTEGRATING THAT IN BETTER WAYS.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.