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♪♪♪ >>> HELLO, EVERYONE, AND WELCOME TO "AMANPOUR & CO." HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP.
>> THERE IS ONLY ONE OPTION, THAT'S DELIVER SECURITY AND OPPORTUNITY, AND THAT'S NEGOTIATING.
>> AS HOPES FOR A GAZA CEASEFIRE HOSTAGE DEAL HANG IN THE BALANCE AND KAMALA HARRIS PREPARING TO DELIVER HER PRESIDENTIAL POLICIES AT THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION, MY CONVERSATION ABOUT GLOBAL LEADERSHIP WITH U.S.
AMBASSADOR RAHM EMANUEL.
>>> THEN -- >> THIS BOOK IS MY TESTIMONY TO THE TRIAL THAT NEVER TOOK PLACE.
>> SHE ACCUSED WIKILEAKS FOUNDER JULIAN ASSANGE OF SEXUAL ASSAULT, THEN CAME THE HATE.
SWEDISH ACTIVIST ANNA ARDIN TELLS ME WHY SHE BELIEVES THERE ARE NO MONSTERS, NO HEROS IN THIS STORY.
>>> ALSO AHEAD -- >> I THINK POLITICS CAN BE VIEWED AS A STRATEGIC GAIN.
"ON THE EDGE" WALTER ISAACSON SPEAKS TO NATE SILVER ABOUT HIS NEW BOOK AND HOW RISK DEFINES OUR WORLD.
♪♪♪ >>> "AMANPOUR & CO." IS MADE POSSIBLE BY -- THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT JIM ATTWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS CANDACE KING WEIR THE SYLVIA A.
AND SIMON B. POYTA PROGRAMING ENDOWMENT TO FIGHT ANTISEMITISM THE FAMILY FOUNDATION OF LEILA AND MICKEY STRAUS MARK J. BLECHNER THE FILOMEN M. D'AGOSTINO FOUNDATION SETON J. MELVIN THE PETER G. PETERSON AND JOAN GANZ COONEY FUND CHARLES ROSENBLUM KOO AND PATRICIA YUEN, COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN OUR COMMUNITIES BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG JEFFREY KATZ AND BETH ROGERS AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.
THANK YOU.
>>> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE.
I'M CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR IN LONDON.
MORE THAN 40,000 PALESTINIANS HAVE BEEN KILLED IN GAZA SINCE OCTOBER 7th, THE HEALTH MINISTRY THERE SAYS.
IT IS YET ANOTHER DARK MARKER IN THIS WAR.
AND WITH MORE THAN 100 ISRAELI HOSTAGES STILL NOT RETURNED TO THEIR FAMILIES, THE FOCUS IS FIRMLY ON HIGH-LEVEL TALKS IN DOHA TODAY.
WITHOUT A CEASEFIRE HOSTAGE DEAL, AMERICA'S GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IS BEING SORELY TESTED.
AND IN THIS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEAR, THE STAKES ARE EXTREMELY HIGH, WITH WAR IN UKRAINE AND STRENGTHENING RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA PRESENTING MAJOR CHALLENGES AHEAD.
TO GET A FEEL FOR WHAT'S WAITING OUT THERE FOR THE NEXT AMERICAN PRESIDENT, WE CHECKED IN WITH AMBASSADOR RAHM EMANUEL, THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION'S ENVOY TO JAPAN AT THE HEART OF THE VITAL ASIA-PACIFIC ALLIANCE.
HE IS A FORMER CONGRESSMAN, WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF, AND MAYOR OF CHICAGO.
AND I SPOKE WITH HIM FROM TOKYO TODAY.
AMBASSADOR EMANUEL, WELCOME FROM TOKYO.
>> THANK YOU.
HOW ARE YOU?
>> GOOD.
I WANT TO ASK HOW IT'S BEEN FOR YOU BECAUSE SOME HAVE CALLED YOU A BULL IN A CHINA SHOP.
YOU CALLED YOURSELF LACKING IN PATIENCE.
AND PEOPLE SAID IF YOU WERE GOING TO MAKE SUCCESS IN JAPAN, YOU HAVE TO TAKE IT SLOW LIKE THEY DO.
WHAT IS THE ACTUAL RESULT?
>> MY JOKE IS THAT I'VE BEEN HERE TWO AND A HALF YEARS.
AND FOR THE JAPANESE, IT FEELS LIKE 25 YEARS.
BUT THE TRUTH IS THE JAPANESE HAVE MADE IN THE LAST TWO AND A HALF YEARS ON THEIR OWN SOME OF THE MOST MOMENTOUS CHANGES IN POLICIES, FIVE OF THEM, THAT ARE 70-YEAR-OLD POLICIES.
THEY WENT FROM 1% TO 2% OF DEFENSE SPENDING ON GDP.
THEY ACQUIRED 400 PLUS COUNTERSTRIKE CAPABILITIES.
THEY LIFTED THE EXPORT RESTRICTIONS ON DEFENSE EQUIPMENT TO COUNTRIES THAT ARE NOT IN CONFLICT.
THEY OPENED UP A TRILATERAL RELATIONSHIP WITH KOREA THAT'S BEEN NOW NORMALIZED TO A LEVEL THAT'S IT'S NOT EVEN NEWS ANYMORE.
AND FIFTH, THEY REWROTE THEIR NATIONAL SECURITY DOCUMENTS.
AND OUR DOCUMENTS ARE SO PARALLEL AND COMPLIMENTARY TO EACH OTHER.
THEY HELP FACILITATE A COOPERATION AND COLLABORATION THAT THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN HAVE NOT SEEN IN 60 YEARS.
SO THE CHANGE HAS BEEN MOMENTOUS, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN THAT FOR YEARS WERE FOCUSED ON WHAT I CALL ALLIANCE PROTECTION, NOW AS TRUE PARTNERS IS FOCUSED ON ALLIANCE PROJECTION INTO THE REGION, AND IT IS THE STABILITY OF THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN'S RELATIONSHIP THAT HAS BROUGHT STABILITY TO THIS REGION.
>> DO YOU BELIEVE, BECAUSE YOU ARE VERY BULLISH ON THESE PARTNERSHIPS IN YOUR REGION THE LAST TIME WE SPOKE, IS THIS ENOUGH TO COUNTER WHAT I THINK THE U.S.
THINKS IS ITS BIGGEST STRATEGIC THREAT, WHICH IS CHINA?
>> THE MOST IMPORTANT THING, CHRISTIANE, IS WHEN YOU GO BACK AND LOOK AT CHINA'S ENTIRE STRATEGY IN THIS REGION IS TO ISOLATE THE PHILIPPINES AND USE THEIR ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, MILITARY PRESSURE TO BREAK THEIR WILL AND THEIR SOVEREIGNTY.
THAT'S WHAT THEY'VE TRIED WITH JAPAN ON ECONOMIC COERCION.
THAT'S WHAT THEY TRIED WITH AUSTRALIA.
TAKE COUNTRY A, ISOLATE THEM, USE ALL THEIR POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND STRAIGHT JUDICIARY COMMITTEE MUSCLE TO FORCE THEM TO BEND THEM TO THEIR WILL.
NOW YOU HAVE THE FLIP OF THE SCRIPT.
THE ISOLATED PARTY IS CHINA, NOT A PHILIPPINES, NOT A JAPAN, NOT AN AUSTRALIA.
AND PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS DESIGNED A NEW ARCHITECTURE THAT HAS FLIPPED THE SCRIPT ON CHINA AND HAS MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT.
AND I SAID THAT, AND I BELIEVED THIS BACK IN AUGUST 18 A YEAR AGO WHEN THE UNITED STATES, JAPAN AND KOREA GOT ON THE SAME PAGE, THAT WAS A REALLY BAD DAY FOR CHINA AND A REALLY GOOD DAY FOR AMERICA'S INTERESTS IN THIS REGION.
>> LET'S JUST PLAY OUT GAME PLAN, THE ELECTION, AND WHO MIGHT WIN.
WILL A KAMALA HARRIS AS PRESIDENT CONTINUE THE EXACT SAME POLICIES, LET'S JUST SAY, IN THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION?
>> I DO BELIEVE THAT -- I MEAN, VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS WILL BUILD.
YOU DON'T JUST CONTINUE.
YOU BUILD OFF OF IT.
NOW I'LL GIVE YOU ONE ANECDOTE.
SHE WAS HERE FOR FORMER PRIME MINISTER ABE'S FUNERAL, AND SHE HAD A PRIVATE MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER KISHIDA.
THOSE WERE THE EARLY DAYS WHEN WE WERE BEGINNING TO JUST SCRATCH OUT THIS LATTICEWORK ARCHITECTURE.
THERE HASN'T BEEN YET A TRILATERAL WITH KOREA THERE HASN'T YET BEEN THE CONCEPT OF A TRILATERAL WITH THE PHILIPPINES.
SO SHE HAS PUT SWEAT EQUITY INTO SOMETHING RIGHT NOW THAT IS STANDING THE TEST OF TIME.
TWO WEEKS AGO, CANADA, U.S., THE PHILIPPINES, AUSTRALIA DID A MILITARY EXERCISE.
THAT IS COALITION BUILDING, CHINA ISOLATED, PHILIPPINES STANDING WITH ALLIES, CANADA, AUSTRALIA AND THE UNITED STATES.
AND SHE WAS THE SHAPER OF THE CLAY, SHAPER OF THE STRATEGY AND CAME IN AND TRAVELED HERE MANY TIMES AND PUT THE MILES.
YOU HAVE TO KEEP INVESTING IN IT AND STRENGTHEN:00 IT.
AND I THINK SHE'LL DO THAT.
>> AND CONVERSELY, IF THERE IS A TRUMP 2.0, MANY OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC LEADERS HAVE BAKED IN THEIR PREVIOUS RELATIONSHIP WITH HIM.
BUT ON THE ISSUE OF TAIWAN, FOR INSTANCE, HE JUST TOLD BLOOMBERG, TAIWAN SHOULD PAY US FOR DEFENSE.
YOU KNOW WE'RE NO DIFFERENT THAN AN INSURANCE COMPANY.
WHAT DID YOU THINK WHEN YOU HEARD THAT?
AND WHAT DO YOU THINK COULD BE THE RESULT OF A TRUMP PRESIDENCY IN YOUR REGION THERE?
>> OKAY, WELL, AS YOU KNOW, I LIKE TO BE AMBASSADOR.
SO AMBASSADORS BY LAW HAVE TO STAY NONPARTISAN, WHICH IS VERY HARD FOR ME.
SO I'M GOING TO SHOW A LEVEL OF RESTRAINT THAT I'M NOT REALLY GOOD AT.
BUT I WILL JUST SAY WHEN YOU LOOK AT THIS REGION, PRESIDENT BIDEN ACCOMPLISHED A GREAT DEAL.
IN THIS REGION, THE UNITED STATES IS NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANYTHING WITHOUT OUR ALLIES.
THEY ARE A FORCE MULTIPLIER FOR THE UNITED STATES.
YOU CANNOT DO ANYTHING IN THE REGION AS A DETERRENT TO CHINA WITHOUT ALLIES.
IMPOSSIBLE.
THIS IS AN AWAY GAME FOR US.
AND SO HERE IN JAPAN, THEY HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED THEIR DEFENSE BUDGET.
THAT'S THE SAME OF KOREA THAT HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENTS.
SO I, AGAIN, PRESIDENT TRUMP 2.0 CAN SAY WHAT HE WANTS, BUT I JUST KNOW FROM A STRATEGIC GAME PLAN THAT THE ISOLATED PARTY IN THE REGION IS CHINA, MAKING YOUR ALLIES FEEL MORE INSECURE MAKES OUR POSITION ALL THAT MORE VULNERABLE.
AND THAT'S ALL I'LL SAY.
YOU CAN DRAW WHATEVER CONCLUSION YOU WANT FROM THAT.
>> OKAY.
LET ME ASK YOU WHAT YOU'D SAY ABOUT THE ANTI-WESTERN ALLIANCE, THE ANTI-U.S. ALLIANCE THAT'S BEEN BUILDING BETWEEN RUSSIA, CHINA, IRAN, NORTH KOREA?
MOST RECENTLY, CHINA AND RUSSIA COORDINATING AND COOPERATING MORE MILITARILY ON MILITARY EXERCISES.
>> I THINK TODAY PEOPLE SEE A CHALLENGE AT THAT LEVEL THAT THEY HADN'T SEEN BEFORE.
AND FOR CHINA TO SAY SUPPORTING RUSSIA HAS COST THEM SERIOUS ECONOMIC AND OTHER POLITICAL SUPPORT IN EUROPE.
IT'S NOT COST-FREE.
NOW YOU CALLED IT ANTI-U.S. WELL, THERE IS NO DOUBT WE ARE A MAIN FOCUS.
I WOULD SAY IT'S ANTI-BOTH DEMOCRATIC.
IT'S ANTI-THE ECONOMIC ORDER AND RULES-BASED SYSTEM.
AND I'LL GIVE YOU A CLASSIC EXAMPLE.
I MEAN, CHINA TODAY CONSTANTLY IS ENGAGED IN ECONOMIC ESPIONAGE.
NOW THE SYSTEM THAT CHINA DOESN'T LIKE IS A SYSTEM BASED THEY WANT ONE WHERE ECONOMIC COERCION IS THE NORM.
THEY WANT ONE WHERE YOU CAN ENGAGE IN ECONOMIC ESPIONAGE, INTELLECTUAL THEFT.
SO IT'S MORE THAN JUST ANTI-U.S.
IT'S ANTI-A SET OF VALUES OF TRUST BASED ON A SET OF PRINCIPLES THAT WE ALL SHARE.
THAT IS WHAT THEY'RE AGAINST.
>> AND YOU CAN SAY A SIMILAR DYNAMIC IS PLAYING IN EUROPE WHERE THE RUSSIAN DYNAMIC IS ANTI-DEMOCRATIC, ANTI-RULE OF LAW, ET CETERA.
NOW WHILE THAT MIGHT BE OUT OF YOUR AREA, I WANT TO KNOW WHAT YOU THINK THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HAS ACHIEVED.
NATO IS BIGGER.
THEY HAVE ATTRACTED MORE INTO NATO, WHICH IS AGAINST WHAT PUTIN THOUGHT, AND NOW UKRAINE IS MOVING INTO TRYING TO CHANGE THE DYNAMIC ON THE GROUND.
WHERE DO YOU THINK A KAMALA HARRIS PRESIDENT, IF IT HAPPENS, WOULD STAND IN BOLSTERING UKRAINE'S ABILITY TO DEFEND ITSELF?
WHERE SHOULD IT BE?
>> LET ME DO TWO THINGS HERE.
YOU CALLED NATO BIGGER, WHICH IT IS BECAUSE YOU ADD SWEDEN AND FINLAND.
BUT I WOULD ALSO CALL IT REVITALIZED.
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN ADMINISTRATIONS WERE TELLING NATO-BASED COUNTRIES THE CONSEQUENCES OF WHAT RUSSIA WAS DOING.
RUSSIA FINALLY PROVED WHAT WE'VE BEEN SAYING FOR DECADES TRUE.
I DO THINK THAT THE THREAT TO UKRAINE, IF SOMETHING WERE TO HAPPEN TO UKRAINE, PRESIDENT PUTIN WOULD NOT STOP.
HE WOULD NOT STOP IN GEORGIA.
HE WOULD NOT STOP AT MOLDOVA.
HE WOULD NOT STOP.
NOW WE ARE NOT EXACTLY PURE ON THAT AS A COUNTRY.
WE'VE HAD OUR OWN VIOLATIONS.
SO WE KIND OF HAVE A GLASS HOUSE THAT WE LIVE IN.
THAT SAID UKRAINE'S SOVEREIGNTY UKRAINE'S INDEPENDENCE, UKRAINE'S DESIRE TO BE AS A PEOPLE REPEATEDLY HAVE GONE TO THE STREETS TO BE PART OF THE WEST.
THEIR ASPIRATIONS TO BE PART OF SOMETHING, THE ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY, THE FREEDOM THAT THE WEST OFFERS AS A POLITICAL PRINCIPLE IS SOMETHING THE PEOPLE HAVE SACRIFICED NOT ONLY ON THE MILITARY BATTLES, BUT ON THE POLITICAL BATTLES.
THEY SEE A FUTURE THAT'S MORE PROMISING TO THE WEST.
THEY ALSO SEE WHEN POLAND JOINED THE WEST HOW MUCH ECONOMIC PROSPERITY HAS HAPPENED TO POLAND AS OPPOSED TO WHAT'S HAPPENED TO UKRAINE.
THEY WANT TO BE A PART OF THAT, AND THAT'S WORST DEFENDING.
WE HAVE DEFENDED THAT REPEATEDLY IN OUR HISTORY.
IT WOULD BE WALKING AWAY FROM OUR OWN HISTORY NOT TO STAND BY A COUNTRY THAT IS WILLING TO FIGHT FOR THEIR FREEDOM AND BE PART OF THE HOUSE OF FREEDOM.
>> FURTHER INTO THE MIDDLE EAST NOW.
WE SPEAK ON A DAY WHERE THERE IS MEANT TO BE CEASEFIRE NEGOTIATIONS.
WE DON'T KNOW WHETHER THEY'RE GOING TO ACTUALLY BEAR ANY FRUIT.
BUT IT'S SOMETHING THAT THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION ABSOLUTELY WANTS AND NEEDS FOR ALL SIDES IN THE ISRAEL-GAZA CONFLICT.
YOU WROTE A PRETTY STIFF OP-ED OR ARTICLE AFTER OCTOBER 7th ATROCITIES IN WHICH YOU WERE VERY SHOCKED BY THE INTELLIGENCE FAILURES THAT WERE PARTLY ENABLING WHAT HAPPENED ON OCTOBER 7th.
I'M JUST WONDERING WHETHER YOU STILL FEEL THAT WAY, AND WHETHER YOU FEEL THAT ISRAEL'S CONDUCT IN THE GAZA WAR HAS DANGEROUSLY ISOLATED IT AND COMPROMISED ITS OWN SECURITY.
>> LOOK, I MEAN, THAT'S A TEN-MONTH PIECE OF REAL ESTATE.
LOOK, I WAS SHOCKED GIVEN THE INTELLIGENCE LEVEL THATFLAT-FOOTED.
BUT THIS IS MORE -- LESS IN EMERGENCY BECAUSE FACTS HAVE COME OUT.
IN FACT, MANY OF THE YOUNG WOMEN THAT WERE MONITORING THE CAMERAS AND MANY OF THE YOUNG WOMEN IN THE INTELLIGENCE OPERATION OF THE ISRAELI IDF ACTUALLY REPORTED WHAT THEY WERE SEEING AND SAID THERE IS SOMETHING HAPPENING HERE, AND IT'S THEIR HIGHER UPS THAT HAVE CAST JUDGMENT.
IT WASN'T A INTELLIGENCE FAILURE.
IT WAS A POLITICAL JUDGMENT FAILURE.
AS YOU SAW WHAT I'M READING RIGHT NOW IN RUSSIA.
THERE WAS SOME OF THEIR OWN INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS SAID LOOK, SOMETHING IS HAPPENING HERE IN UKRAINE, AND THE HIGHER UPS DISMISSED IT.
THAT BECAME NOW WE'RE IN DAY 10 OF A SERIOUS BLACK EYE FOR PUTIN.
THAT WAS MORE THAN JUST A BLACK EYE FOR ISRAEL.
NOW, I DO WANT TO TAKE ONE SIDE NOTE, WHICH I KNOW WHAT THE THRUST OF THE QUESTION IS.
THERE HAVE BEEN IN THE LAST SINCE 2005 FIVE DIFFERENT CEASEFIRES BETWEEN ISRAEL AND HAMAS, AND EACH TIME THOSE CEASEFIRES HAVE BEEN VIOLATED BY HAMAS.
ISRAEL HAS A RIGHT TO DEFEND ITSELF.
WHEN IN FACT 1200 PEOPLE WERE KILLED AND MANY, MANY WOMEN WERE RAPED, AND MANY, MANY CHILDREN WERE KILLED IN FRONT OF THEIR PARENTS.
ANY COUNTRY THAT'S INVADED HAS A RIGHT TO SELF-DEFENSE.
HOW IT CONDUCTS A WAR, I GREW UP IN A PERIOD OF TIME WHERE THE IDF WAS RESPECTED NOT ONLY FOR THEIR CAPABILITIES, BUT FOR THE ETHICS IN WHICH THEY CONDUCTED.
THAT HASN'T BEEN ALL THE CASE HERE, BUT THEY HAVE A RIGHT TO DEFEND THEMSELVES.
AND TO DO IT IN A WAY THAT'S TRUE TO THE VALUES OF THE STATE OF ISRAEL.
AND THEY HAVEN'T BEEN PERFECT AT IT.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THEY HAVE DONE OTHER THINGS THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE SENSE OF SAFETY AND SANCTITY OF HUMAN LIFE CONDUCTED THINGS THAT OTHER COUNTRIES, OURSELVES INCLUDED HAVE NOT DONE WHEN IT COMES TO URBAN WARFARE.
SO IT'S NOT JUST A BROAD BRUSH STROKE, BUT THERE IS NO DOUBT WHERE ISRAEL IS TODAY, WHERE ISRAEL WAS BEFORE, IT'S MORE ISOLATED BECAUSE OF THE LENGTH OF THIS WAR AND THE CONDUCT OF IT.
YOU DON'T NEED ME TO SAY THAT.
THAT'S A SELF-EVIDENT TRUTH.
>> I DO WANT TO ASK YOU BECAUSE IT'S IMPORTANT.
PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS THE HISTORIC AMERICAN AND PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP WITH ISRAEL THAT HIS GENERATION HAS.
AND YOU SEE THE MAJORITY OF AMERICAN PEOPLE AND WHERE THEY ARE AND THE PRESSURES THEY'RE PUTTING ON THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY RIGHT NOW.
KAMALA HARRIS IS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT GENERATION.
I'M JUST WONDERING WHAT YOU THINK SHOULD BE A POLICY SHIFT OR NOT TOWARDS TRYING TO RESOLVE THIS UNRESOLVED DECADES-LONG SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST BETWEEN ISRAEL AND THE PALESTINIANS.
>> WELL, I THINK -- LET ME SAY -- SO SOMETHING THAT GOES BACK ON THIS TO PRESIDENT CLINTON WORKING BOTH MAINLY KIND OF INDEPENDENT, BUT THE Y PLANTATION AND THE CAMP DAVID EFFORTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PRESIDENT'S TENURE, AND WORKED ON THIS WITH PRESIDENT OBAMA.
THERE ARE THREE TRACKS.
AND THE REASON THE UNITED STATES IS FOR A NEGOTIATED AGREEMENT.
YOU LOOK AT THE HISTORY OF ISRAEL.
THERE ARE THREE TRACKS AS IT RELATES.
ISRAEL HAS TRIED A NEGOTIATED TRACK.
YOU'VE SEEN THAT WITH EGYPT.
YOU'VE SEEN IT WITH JORDAN.
EWE SEEN WIT THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS.
THE NEGOTIATED TRACK HAS DELIVERED BOTH SECURITY AS WELL AS AN ACCEPTANCE FOR ISRAEL INTO THE REGION.
AND THE PIECE AGREEMENTS WITH THOSE THREE, EGYPT IN THE LATE '70s, JORDAN IN THE EARLY '90s UNDER PRESIDENT CLINTON, ABRAHAM ACCORDS UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP HAVE DELIVERED SECURITY, DELIVERED ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY AND DELIVERED A REGIONAL ACCEPTANCE.
THE OTHER OPTION TRIED IS UNILATERAL, BOTH IN LEBANON AND IN GAZA, AND THAT'S LED TO HAMAS AND HEZBOLLAH.
THE OTHER OPTION, THE THIRD OPTION WHICH IS DIVORCE, WHICH THEY'VE TRIED WITH THE WEST BANK.
THERE IS ONLY ONE OPTION THAT'S DELIVERED AND OPPORTUNITY AND A REGIONAL ACCEPTANCE, AND THAT'S NEGLECTED.
THE UNITED STATES PRESIDENT BY BOTH PARTIES HAS NEVER PUSHED THIS JUST BECAUSE WHILE WE BELIEVE IN ASPIRATION FOR PALESTINIAN SELF-DETERMINATION, WE'VE PUSHED IT BECAUSE WE BELIEVE LIKE MANY, MANY, MANY, MANY VOICES WITHIN THE ISRAELI SECURITY ESTABLISHMENT, A NEGOTIATED TRACK IS ONE THAT HAS MOST PROMISE FOR PEACE.
AND I CAN UNDERSTAND WHEN YOU HAVE ON THE HEELS OF OSLO BUSES BLOWING UP IN TEL AVIV, WHY YOU GET VERY, VERY SINNAL THAT NEGOTIATIONS WON'T WORK.
BUT, YOU KNOW, THE LATE YITZHAK RABIN ONCE SAID YOU FIGHT TERROR AS IF THERE IS NO PEACE, AND YOU MAKE PEACE AS IF THERE IS NO TERROR.
AND TO ME THAT IS STILL A TRUISM.
AND THE PRESIDENT'S COMMITMENT TO NOT ONLY A TWO-STATE SOLUTION BUT A NEGOTIATED PROCESS IS BECAUSE IT HAS STOOD THE TEST OF TIME FOR ISRAEL'S OWN SECURITY.
WHAT I FIND NOW WHICH IS MOST PROMISING, AND I DON'T THINK I'M -- I'M NOT AN OPTIMISTIC USUALLY.
I'M USUALLY KIND OF COLD, KIND OF PRAGMATIST ABOUT THIS IS THAT THERE ARE MANY FORCES NOW FOR STABILITY AND FOR REGIONAL SECURITY THAT DIDN'T EXIST.
GULF COUNTRIES AND NEIGHBORS TO ISRAEL IN THE ARAB-ISRAELI BORDER.
THEY WANT STABILITY BECAUSE IT'S IMPORTANT FOR THEIR OWN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.
INSTABILITY, MAINLY DRIVEN BY IRAN AND THEIR SURROGATES IS THE FORCE HERE.
BUT ISRAEL FOR THE FIRST TIME HAS PARTNERS AND ALLIES WHO ARE SEEKING QUIET, THEY'RE SEEKING STABILITY, SEEKING KIND OF OVERALL STRATEGIC ALIGNMENT SO ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POLITICAL GROWTH CAN HAPPEN.
THAT'S A BIG DIFFERENCE AND ONE THAT I THINK ACUES TO ISRAEL'S HISTORIC INTEREST IS NOT ONLY ECONOMIC GROWTH, BUT POLITICAL ACCEPTANCE IN THE REGION.
AND THE FORCES MAINLY DRIVEN AGAIN, I WANT TO REPEAT, BY RUSSIA, BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY BY IRAN IS ONE FOR INSTABILITY VERSUS THOSE WHO HAVE AGREED FOR STABILITY.
THAT'S A BIG DIFFERENCE AND THE VOICES FOR STABILITY ARE BIGGER TODAY AND LARGER TODAY THAN THEY EXISTED IN THE PAST.
.
>> IT'S AN IMPORTANT POINT.
AND FINALLY, YOU WERE MAYOR OF CHICAGO.
MONDAY STARTS THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION THERE.
ARE YOU GOING?
>> NO.
YOU KNOW, AN AMBASSADOR -- >> OKAY, ALL RIGHT.
>> AN EARLIER QUESTION, CAN'T GET INVOLVED IN PARTISAN POLITICS.
>> AND WHEN DO YOU THINK YOUR TERM AS AMBASSADOR WILL BE UP?
AND WHAT'S NEXT FOR RAHM EMANUEL?
>> WELL, FIRST, IT'S UP AT THE END OF THIS YEAR.
AND RAHM EMANUEL IS GOING RUN THROUGH THE TAPE.
>> GOT IT.
>> IT'S AN HONOR TO SERVE.
IT'S AN HONOR TO BE TAPPED BY A PRESIDENT.
AND I DON'T BELIEVE IN WALKING AWAY FROM THAT, AND I'LL RUN THROUGH THE TAPE.
>> AMBASSADOR RAHM EMANUEL, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.
>> THANKS, CHRISTIANE.
>> DEFINITIVE STATEMENTS FROM TOKYO.
>>> NOW WHEN WIKILEAKS FOUNDER JULIAN ASSANGE WALKED FREE EARLIER THIS SUMMER AFTER PLEADING GUILTY TO AN ESPIONAGE CHARGE, HE WAS CHEERED ON BY HIS SUPPORTERS.
BUT AMONG THE MORE SURPRISING VOICES GLAD TO SEE HIM OUT OF PRISON WAS A SWEDISH ACTIVIST ANNA ARDIN WHO IN 2010 WAS ONE OF TWO WOMEN WHO SAID HE HAD SEXUALLY ASSAULTED THEM.
HE DENIED THE ALLEGATIONS.
SHE'S NOW RECOUNTING THE EXPERIENCE IN HER BOOK "NO HEROS, NO MONSTERS" WHERE SHE DESCRIBES THE BARRAGE OF HATE AND CONSPIRACY THEORIES DIRECTED AT HER AFTER THE ACCUSATION.
14 YEARS ON FROM THAT TRAUMATIC TIME, I SPOKE WITH HER ABOUT HER REFLECTIONS ON ASSANGE, WIKILEAKS, AND REBUILDING HER LIFE.
ANNA ARDIN, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.
YOU HAVE WRITTEN A BOOK, "NO HEROES, NO MONSTERS: WHAT I LEARNED BEING THE MOST HATED WOMAN ON THE INTERNET."
THIS IS YOUR EXPERIENCE WITH JULIAN ASSANGE.
WHY NOW.
TELL ME WHY YOU WANTED TO WRITE THIS BOOK.
>> I MEAN, THIS BOOK IS MY TESTIMONY TO THE TRIAL THAT NEVER TOOK PLACE, AND IT TOOK TEN YEARS TO KNOW THAT THERE WAS NOT GOING TO BE ANY TRIAL FOR MY CASE.
AND THEN IT TOOK ME SOME WHILE TO GET IT TRANSLATED INTO ENGLISH AND TO LIKE FIND THE ENERGY TO TAKE ALL THIS AGAIN.
BECAUSE IT WASN'T REALLY LIKE -- I MEAN, THERE IS NO MONEY IN IT.
THERE IS NOT MUCH -- YOU DON'T GAIN A LOT PERSONALLY FROM DOING THIS.
BUT I FELT IT WAS REALLY IMPORTANT TO PASS ON WHAT I LEARNED.
LIKE I SAID, BEING THE MOST HATED WOMAN ON THE INTERNET, THAT WAS JUST FOR A FEW DAYS, BUT EVERY DAY THERE IS A NEW WOMAN BEING THE MOST HATED.
AND MANY TIMES IT HAS TO DO WITH SEXUAL ABUSE AND SEXUAL VIOLENCE.
AND I WANT TO GIVE THAT TO OTHER PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN ABUSED.
>> SO ANNA, TELL ME IN A NUTSHELL WHAT YOU ACCUSED JULIAN ASSANGE OF.
>> I ACCUSED HIM OF ABUSE, NOT RAPE, BUT HE WAS IN SHORT INSEMINATING ME WITHOUT MY CONSENT.
AND I DON'T KNOW HIS MOTIVES, BUT I WAS GUESSING THAT HE WANTED TO GET ME PREGNANT.
AND I DIDN'T WANT THAT.
SO THAT WAS -- I WANTED TO GET HIM TESTED FOR HIV OR FOR OTHER SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASES BECAUSE I THOUGHT I MIGHT HAVE BEEN INFECTED.
AND THAT'S WHY I WANT TO THE POLICE.
SO THAT WAS MY ACCUSATION AGAINST HIM.
>> AND FOR PEOPLE WHO DON'T UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU MEAN BY INSEMINATING, WHAT WERE THE PHYSICAL ASPECTS OF THAT?
>> HE BROKE THE CONDOM WITHOUT ME NOTICING IT WHEN IT HAPPENED.
I MEAN, IT WAS -- I WRITE ABOUT THAT IN SEVERAL PAGES EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED BECAUSE HE WAS NOT ENTIRELY VOLUNTARY THAT THE SITUATION WAS KIND OF VIOLENT AS WELL AS THIS RIPPED CONDOM THAT I DIDN'T REALLY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHECK.
I HEARD THIS SOUND AS IF THE CONDOM HAD BROKE, BUT I -- HE WAS HOLDING MY HANDS LIKE THIS AND I COULDN'T REALLY CHECK WHAT HAD HAPPENED.
AND IT WAS A VERY UNCOMFORTABLE SITUATION, AND IT TOOK ME -- IT TOOK ME A LONG TIME TO UNDERSTAND THAT THIS WAS AN ABUSE, AND THAT IT PROBABLY WAS ILLEGAL.
>> SO, OF COURSE, AS YOU KNOW, HE DENIES EVERYTHING.
THE STATUTE OF LIMITATIONS HAS RUNNING OUT.
THE CASE WAS DROPPED.
BUT I WANT YOU TO READ AN EXCERPT OF THE COMPLICATIONS REALLY KIND OF ILLUSTRATES THE TITLE.
YOU WRITE "NO HEROS, NO MONSTERS."
AND YOU'RE SAYING SOMETHING THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE WAY YOU HAVE COMPLICATED EMOTIONS ABOUT HIM AND ABOUT WHAT I ASSUME WAS A CONSENSUAL RELATIONSHIP DESPITE THIS ASPECT OF IT.
CAN YOU READ THE FIRST EXTRACT OF WHEN YOU SAW HIM AT A PARTY RIGHT AFTER THIS EVENT.
>> THE JULIAN WHO ATTENDS THE CRAYFISH PARTY IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT ONE THAN THE JULIAN WHO HUMILIATED AND USED ME THE NIGHT BEFORE.
I DECIDE NOT TO SEE THE HORRIBLE JULIAN ANYMORE, JUST THE NICE ONE.
AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH I CAN MAKE THAT CHOICE.
IN THE CONVERSATION TONIGHT, I'M ONCE AGAIN AN EQUAL, SOMEONE WORTH LISTENING AND RESPONDING TO.
I WRITE ON TWITTER ABOUT HOW WONDERFUL IT IS TO HANG OUT WITH SOME OF THE SMARTEST AND MOST FUN PEOPLE, HOW WARM THE WEATHER IS AND HOW LIGHT THE EVENING, HOW PRIVILEGED I AM.
I HAVE MARKS ON MY NECK FROM THE SNAPPED NECKLACE AND A NAGGING WORRY ABOUT HIV, A BROKEN HEART, AND THE DESIRE TO SHOW AN EX-BOYFRIEND I'M GOING TO BE FINE WITHOUT HIM.
BUT I DON'T DISPLAY THAT OPEN PLY.
JUST AS ALL PEOPLE DO, I CHOOSE TO SHOW A PORTION OF MYSELF AND MY FEELINGS, A PORTION OF THE TRUTH, NOT ITS WHOLE.
THE ENTIRETY WOULDN'T FIT INTO TWITTER'S 140 CHARACTERS.
THERE IS RARELY ROOM IN THE LIGHT FOR THE ENTIRETY WITH ALL ITS NUANCES.
>> I FIND IT REALLY INTERESTING BECAUSE YOU KEEP REFERRING TO NUANCES.
AND AGAIN, THE TITLE OF YOUR BOOK IS VERY INTERESTING.
WHY DO YOU THINK YOU WERE UNDER SUCH -- UNDER HIS SPELL SO TO SPEAK?
DO YOU KIND OF WANT TO BE PART OF THE COOL CROWD?
YOU HAD WORKED AT WIKILEAKS.
WHAT WAS IT ABOUT HIM THAT MADE YOU WANT TO BE IN HIS DOMAIN, SO TO SPEAK?
>> I MEAN, THERE WERE A LOT OF REASONS, OF COURSE, BUT MAINLY, I WAS WORKING FOR THIS ORGANIZATION WHO WAS CRITICIZING THE WARS IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN, AND WE WERE -- WE WERE OPPOSING THE UNITED STATES, AND WE WERE OPPOSING WAR, AND WE WERE OPPOSING THE LOGISTICS OF WAR.
AND WE WERE A CROWD, AND WE WERE GAINING MOMENTUM.
AND IT WAS A FANTASTIC FEELING THAT WE ON TO SOMETHING BEING ABLE TO LEAK THE SECRETS.
AND MY CONVICTION WAS THAT IF WE DISPLAYED THE ATROCITIES OF WAR, WE WILL BE ABLE TO PUT AN END TO THEM.
AND BESIDE THAT, LIKE BEING IN THIS -- I MEAN, THIS DISCUSSIONS WERE LIKE RIGHT IN THE CENTER OF THE GLOBAL POLITICS BY THEN.
AND FOR A YOUNG PERSON INVOLVED IN POLITICS, THAT WAS AMAZING.
AND THE OTHER PEOPLE AT THIS PARTY AS WELL THAT I WAS TALKING TO ALL NIGHT, THE WHOLE SPIRIT WAS AMAZING.
AND YOU DON'T WANT TO GO AND REPORT LIKE A SMALL ABUSE IN THE MIDDLE OF THAT.
BUT IN THE END, THAT IS WHAT HAPPENED.
AND THEN THE WHOLE STORY UNFOLDED.
>> IT WAS AN ABUSE THAT YOU DID REPORT TO THE POLICE.
BUT I JUST WANT TO GO BACK TO THE WIKILEAKS, BECAUSE THAT'S ALSO PART OF WHAT MAKES THIS WHOLE STORY SO UNIQUE, REALLY.
DO YOU THINK IN RETROSPECT THAT YOU WERE -- DO YOU SUPPORT WHAT WIKILEAKS DID?
AND DO YOU THINK IN RETROSPECT YOU MAY HAVE BEEN NAIVE ABOUT HIM AND HIS WORK?
>> I MEAN, THINGS ARE MUCH MORE COMPLICATED.
AND THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISCUSSION AFTER THIS LIKE -- I'VE BEEN IN TOUCH WITH A LOT OF THE ACTIVISTS THAT WERE ENGAGED IN WIKILEAKS AND MUCH MORE PEOPLE THAN ME HAVE BEEN SUBJECT TO DIFFERENT KINDS OF ABUSE, NOT ONLY SEXUALLY.
I MEAN, WIKILEAKS WAS NOT REALLY WORKING AS AN ORGANIZATION.
AND I DIDN'T UNDERSTAND THAT AT THIS POINT.
AND MAYBE IT'S ALWAYS LIKE THIS, THAT NOBODY IS PERFECT AND THAT THE PERFECT ORGANIZATION DOESN'T EXIST.
YOU ALWAYS HAVE CRITICISM.
THAT'S WHY I PUT IN THE TITLE THERE ARE NO HEROES BECAUSE THERE ARE NO PERFECT PEOPLE THAT ARE WORTHY OF FOLLOWING AND LISTENING TO 100% THAT EVERYONE HAS TO BE FOLLOWING THE SAME RULES.
I MEAN, THAT WAS ONE OF THE PRINCIPLES OF WIKILEAKS, THAT YOU SHOULDN'T BE ABLE TO BE ABOVE THE RULES JUST BECAUSE YOU HAVE POWER OR JUST BECAUSE YOU'RE AN IMPORTANT PERSON.
AND THAT GOES FOR WIKILEAKS AND FOR JULIAN ASSANGE AS WELL.
>> YOU SAID TWO THINGS.
THERE WERE OTHER KINDS OF ABUSE AT WIKILEAKS.
WHAT?
>> I MEAN PEOPLE WERE SHUT OUT OF THE ORGANIZATION.
THERE WERE NO DEMOCRATIC STRUCTURES.
IT WAS VERY DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHERE THE MONEY WAS GOING.
IT WAS -- I MEAN, IT WAS PRETTY MUCH A ONE-MAN SHOW.
AND I HAVE ONE EXAMPLE IN MY BOOK OF AN ACTIVIST WHO WAS ORGANIZING.
AND HE WAS TRYING TO PROTECT THE PEOPLE WHO APPEARED IN THE DOCUMENTS, THAT YOU COULDN'T LEAK DETAILS ON PRIVATE PERSONS, FOR EXAMPLE.
LIKE PEOPLE BEING HOMOSEXUAL IN SAUDI ARABIA COULD BE A REAL THREAT TO THEM IF THOSE KIND OF DOCUMENTS LEAKED.
AND JULIAN PUSHED THESE PEOPLE TO PUBLISH THESE DOCUMENTS.
AND THEY SAID WE CANNOT.
WE CANNOT PUBLISH THIS BECAUSE IT WILL PUT PEOPLE INTO DANGER.
AND JULIAN WAS YELLING THAT YOU HAVE TO LISTEN TO ME BECAUSE I AM GOD.
>> HE ACTUALLY SAID THAT?
>> HE SAID THAT.
HE SAID THAT.
ACCORDING TO THIS ACTIVIST IN ONE OF THE BIG ORGANIZATIONS IN SWEDEN.
>> I WANT TO GET BACK TO YOUR STORY, YOUR PERSONAL STORY IN A MOMENT.
BUT I WANT TO ASK YOU ONE MORE THING ABOUT WIKILEAKS, BECAUSE AS WE ALL KNOW, JULIAN ASSANGE THEN HID OUT.
WE WENT TO THE ECUADOR EMBASSY.
YOU KNOW, HE WAS ACCUSED AND CHARGED BY THE UNITED STATES FOR VARIOUS INFRACTIONS OF NATIONAL SECURITY.
AND AS WE ALL KNOW, IN JUNE, HE DID PLEAD GUILTY AT AN EXTRA TERRITORIAL U.S. COURT ON A PACIFIC ISLAND AND HE IS NOW FREE.
YOU HAVE SAID THAT YOU'RE GLAD THAT HE IS FREE AND WITH HIS FAMILY.
>> YEAH.
YEAH.
THERE IS NO REASON THAT HE SHOULD BE IN JAIL FOR THESE ACCUSATIONS THAT THE UNITED STATES HAD AGAINST HIM IN MY OPINION.
AND THAT HAS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH MY CASE.
I MEAN, THEY HAVE BEEN MIXED UP THROUGHOUT ALL THESE YEARS.
EVERY TIME SOMETHING BAD HAS HAPPENED TO HIM, I HAVE BEEN ACCUSED OF BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT.
AND THAT'S COMPLETELY OUT OF MY CONTROL AND A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT CASE AS WELL.
>> SO YOU SUFFERED A HUGE AMOUNT OF ABUSE.
I MEAN, AT ONE POINT, YOU WERE REMOVED FROM YOUR HOME NATION OF SWEDEN BY THE POLICE THERE BECAUSE THEY DIDN'T THINK THEY COULD PROTECT YOU.
WHAT DID THEY DO?
THEY TOOK YOU AWAY FOR SEVERAL YEARS, RIGHT?
YOU HID OUT IN A DIFFERENT COUNTRY.
>> THEY TOOK ME AWAY FOR JUST A FEW WEEKS FROM MY COUNTRY.
BUT I HAD TO -- I WAS AWAY FROM MY APARTMENT FOR QUITE A LONG TIME.
AND I NORMALLY SAY THAT IT WAS ABOUT TWO YEARS FOR ME WHERE I COULDN'T REALLY WORK, WHERE EVERYTHING I SAID PUBLICLY, BECAUSE I WAS WORKING AS A PRESS SECRETARY, AND I WAS A PUBLIC SENIOR PUBLIC PERSON.
I WAS WRITING PIECES IN PAPERS AND STUFF.
>> THE SUBTITLE IS ABOUT BEING THE MOST HATED PERSON ON THE INTERNET.
AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED IN A PREME TOO WORLD.
DO YOU THINK IT WOULD HAVE BEEN DIFFERENT HAD ALL OF THESE REVELATIONS AND YOUR STORY COME OUT AFTER 2017?
>> MAYBE.
AND A LOT OF THOSE THINGS WERE SO DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN BECAUSE NOBODY HAD DISCUSSED ANYTHING NEAR SIMILAR TO THIS.
BUT AFTER ME TOO, A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE MUCH MORE EDUCATED IN THE GREYSTONES AND THE BEHAVIOR OF WOMEN AFTER SEXUAL ABUSE THAT YOU DON'T REPORT IMMEDIATELY TO THE POLICE NORMALLY, ET CETERA.
BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, I THINK THAT -- I MEAN THE STRUCTURES ARE REALLY DEEP.
WE SAW, FOR EXAMPLE, THE HATE AGAINST AMBER HEARD IN THE JOHNNY DEPP CASE.
THAT WAS EXACTLY THE SAME ARGUMENTS THAT WERE USED AGAINST ME SEVERAL YEARS EARLIER.
SO IT WAS THE SAME STORY FOR HER, THE HATE, THE ACCUSATIONS OF RUINING A MAN'S LIFE FOR TELLING WHAT HAPPENED TO YOU.
>> CAN YOU READ THE EXCERPT THAT WE'VE ASKED YOU TO READ ABOUT THAT HATRED THAT WAS EXPRESSED TO YOU.
>> YEAH.
THIS WAS JUST LIKE A WEEK OR A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN A WEEK AFTER THE ABUSE THAT THE FIRST WAVE OF HATE.
AND IT'S LIKE THIS.
IT'S FROM AUGUST 23rd, 2010.
I'VE ALREADY BEEN PREJUDGED, AND IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT I SAY.
THERE IS NOTHING I CAN DO TO IMPROVE THE SITUATION.
PEOPLE, THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF WHOM APPEAR TO BE MEN WRITE, SHOUT, PHOTO SHOP, AND EVEN ANIMATE VARIOUS DEGRADING OPINIONS, INSULTING LANGUAGE, OR THREATS OF ASSAULT, BODILY HARM, AND DEATH.
WOMEN, EVEN THE ONES WHO ARE FURIOUS AT THOSE WHO MOCK CRIME VICTIMS CALL THEM COMPLICIT IN THE CRIME, STILL DEFEND JULIAN AND DERIDE ME.
MOTHERS AND GRANDMOTHERS CHIME IN WITH A CHORUS OF ACCUSATIONS, LIES, AND CONSPIRACIES.
MEN, EVEN THOSE WHO BELIEVE THAT THE DEATH PENALTY SHOULD BE APPLIED TO RAPE THINK THAT I SHOULD BE RAPED.
NAMING AND SHAMING JULIAN GOES HAND IN HAND WITH NAMING AND SHAMING ME.
THE FRENZY IS DIRECTED AT BOTH OF US.
>> IT'S VERY POWERFUL MEMORIES AND TESTIMONY, AND YOU DEDICATE YOUR BOOK FOR THE FEMINISTS, EVERY SINGLE ONE OF YOU.
BUT YOU ALSO SAY, YOU JUST SAID OLD ALLIES, PEOPLE AT WIKILEAKS, THE LEFT, FEMINISTS, MANY OF THEM TURNED ON YOU AS WELL.
WERE YOU SURPRISED BY THAT?
>> OF COURSE, IT WAS SO MANY THINGS HAPPENING.
SO I WAS JUST SURPRISED THAT IT WAS SO BIG.
I WAS SURPRISED THAT EVERYTHING THAT HAPPENED.
IT WAS THE LEGAL -- IT WAS LIKE TWO TRIBUNALS AT THE SAME TIME.
A LOT OF THINGS HAPPENING LEGALLY.
AND THEN ON THE OTHER HAND, EVERYTHING THAT WENT ON IN THE MEDIA AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA AND IN MY IN BOXES.
SO IT WAS JUST OVERWHELMING.
I DIDN'T HAVE THE TIME TO BE SURPRISED OF ANYTHING.
AND I DIDN'T -- I MEAN, EXPECT MUCH.
BUT WHAT HAPPENED JUST LIKE A FEW MONTHS AFTER THIS IN DECEMBER, FEMINISTS STARTED TO MOBILIZE, LIKE TO GIVE A DIFFERENT STORY, TO SHOW A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE, TO START TALKING ABOUT GRAY STONES.
THERE WAS THIS BIG CAMPAIGN, LIKE PRE-ME TOO CAMPAIGN IN SWEDEN CALLED "TALK ABOUT IT" THAT REALLY CHANGED MY SITUATION A LOT WHERE PEOPLE STARTED TALKING ABOUT THEIR OWN EXPERIENCES.
BUT, I MEAN, OF COURSE THERE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF FEMINISTS ALSO APOLOGIZING FOR BEING LIKE DRAWN INTO THIS FRENZY OF HATE AGAINST ME.
>> HOW WILL YOU MOVE ON WITH YOUR LIFE NOW THAT YOU HAVE WRITTEN THIS?
>> I MEAN, THIS BOOK WAS VERY MUCH FOR ME LIKE A WAY OF CLOSING THIS STORY, LIKE GIVING MY TESTIMONY AND IF PEOPLE WANT TO READ IT, I WOULD BE REALLY HAPPY, BECAUSE I THINK THERE IS A LOT OF THINGS THAT HAVEN'T BEEN DISCUSSED YET IN IT.
BUT ALSO A WAY OF LIKE NOT BEING -- NOT FEELING THAT I HAVE TO REPEAT THE STORY OVER AND OVER AGAIN TO DEFEND MYSELF.
BECAUSE NOW IT'S -- PEOPLE ARE STILL ACCUSING ME, BUT I HAVE WRITTEN THE BOOK.
I DID WHAT I COULD TO GIVE MY TRUTH IN THIS.
AND I MIGHT BE STUDENT.
I WORK ON MY THESIS ON DEMOCRACY AND CIVIC SPACE FOR CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANIZATIONS.
AND IF IT'S NOT LIKE GLOBAL ATTENTION TO THIS, BUT IT FEELS IMPORTANT, AND I HAVE MY FAMILY, AND I HAVE MY LIFE, I HAVE MY FRIENDS, AND THINGS, ARE WORKING OUT PRETTY GOOD RIGHT NOW IN MY LIFE.
>> WELL, I'M GLAD TO HEAR THAT.
ANNA ARDIN, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR BEING WITH US.
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR HAVING ME.
>>> NOW WITH THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION EDGING CLOSER, ALL EYES ARE SERIOUSLY FOCUSED ON CANDIDATES KAMALA HARRIS AND DONALD TRUMP.
NATE SILVER, THE PROPHETIC POLLSTER AND POKER PLAYER WHO FOUNDED THE WEBSITE FIVETHIRTYEIGHT HAS A NEW BULLETIN WITH ALL THE LATEST ANALYSIS.
HE ALSO HAS A NEW BOOK DETAILING HOW MUCH LIKE IN POKER, RISK-TAKING COULD BE THE KEY TO SUCCESS.
AND NATE SILVER IS JOINING WALTER ISAACSON TO DISCUSS HOW BOLD ACTION COULD BE A GAME-CHANGER IN NOVEMBER.
>> THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE.
AND NATE SILVER, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.
>> THANK YOU, WALTER.
>> YOU HAVE A GREAT NEW BOOK OUT THIS WEEK CALLED "ON THE EDGE."
IT'S ABOUT EVERYTHING FROM POKER TO CRYPTOCURRENCY TO POLITICS.
LET ME START, THOUGH, WITH POLITICS.
PEOPLE LIKE ME GO TO YOUR SUBSTACK, THE SILVER BULLETIN EVERY DAY TO SEE THAT ELECTION PREDICTOR, THE ELECTION ODDS TYPE THING.
TELL ME, WHAT IS IT SHOWING NOW IN TERMS OF HARRIS VERSUS TRUMP, AND HOW DO YOU CALCULATE THE PROBABILITIES FOR THAT?
>> SO IT SHOWS THAT RIGHT NOW HARRIS IS ABOUT A THREE-POINT LEAD IN NATIONAL POLLS.
IT'S A NUMBER DEMOCRATS ARE FAMILIAR WITH.
HILLARY CLINTON WON THE POPULAR VOTE BY TWO POINTS IN 2016.
BIDEN WON IT BY FOUR POINTS IN 2020.
SHE IS RIGHT IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO BENCHMARKS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
WE'VE SEEN THE DRAMATIC EVENTS THAT HAVE UNFOLDED ON THE CAMPAIGN SO FAR, FROM DEMOCRATS CHANGING THEIR CANDIDATES TO THE ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT AGAINST FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP.
SO WE HAVE HER AS ABOUT A 55, 45 FAVORITE.
IF YOU'RE A POKER PLAYER, YOU'D RATHER HAVE THE 55, BUT AS REGULAR PEOPLE, IT'S A TOSS-UP.
IT'S POLLS BUT WE ALSO ACCOUNT FOR THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY AND WHETHER THE CANDIDATE IS AN INCUMBENT OR CHALLENGER.
IN HARRIS' CASE, THERE IS NO INCUMBENT IN THE ELECTION ANYMORE.
BIDEN IS NOT RUNNING FOR ANOTHER TERM.
AND THE ECONOMY IS GOOD BY SOME MEASURES, BAD BY SOME MEASURES.
WE HAVE IT ABOUT AVERAGE OVERALL.
SO OUR MODEL THINKS IF YOU HAD AVERAGE CANDIDATES, IT WOULD BE A TOSS-UP IN THE POPULAR VOTE.
A TIE IN THE POPULAR VOTE, WHICH MEANS AN ELECTORAL COLLEGE, WHICH USUALLY FAVORS REPUBLICANS, SHE MIGHT HAVE A DISADVANTAGE.
DEMOCRATS WON THE POPULAR VOTE AND LOST THE ELECT COLLEGE.
THAT COULD HAPPEN AGAIN.
THERE IS A 12% MODEL THAT SHE COMES SO CLOSE TO VICTORY THAT SHE JUST COMES A LITTLE SHORT IN WISCONSIN, PENNSYLVANIA, MICHIGAN, DESPITE WINNING THE POPULAR VOTE AGAIN.
>> WE'VE SEEN A LOT OF WHAT WE COULD CALL BLACK SWAN EVENTS, THINGS TOTALLY UNEXPECTED THAT DISRUPT EVERYTHING, WHETHER IT'S AN OUTBREAK OF COVID FROM CHINA OR BIDEN DROPPING OUT OF THE RACE, AND WE MIGHT HAVE MORE BLACK SWAN EVENTS.
WHO KNOWS.
A WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST OR A GAZA CEASEFIRE.
HOW DO YOU WHEN YOU DO PROBABILISTIC MODELS ACCOUNT FOR THE BLACK SWAN EVENTS?
>> WE DON'T ACCOUNT FOR BLACK SWANS PER SE, BUT WE DO SAY THE FURTHER OUT YOU ARE FROM THE ELECTION, THE MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE IS.
IT'S KIND OF LIKE A LITTLE HURRICANE TRACK WHERE YOU GO OUT IN TIME AND SPACE, AND THE CONE OF THE HURRICANE GETS WIDER.
IT'S BASICALLY HOW OUR MODEL WORKS.
IF THE ELECTION WERE TOMORROW, IT WOULD STILL BE UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE POLLING IS CLOSE, BUT LESS UNCERTAIN THAN IT IS NOW.
LESS UNCERTAIN THAN IN THREE MONTHS.
>> IN TERMS OF CALCULATING RISKS, ONE OF THE BIG RISKS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY FACED IS DURING THAT PERIOD WHEN BIDEN WAS THINKING OF STAYING IN THE RACE, DROPPING OUT OF THE RACE.
YOU SAID THAT THE RISK OF DOING NOTHING WAS MUCH STRONGER.
WHY?
>> I MEAN, THIS IS ONE CORE LESSON FROM THE BOOK WHERE IT'S TAKEN PEOPLE LIKE H.R.
McMASTER THAT HAVE BEEN IN MILITARY BAPTISTS.
STANDING STILL IS SOMETIMES NOT A GOOD OPTION.
IF YOU'RE ON THE BATTLEFIELD, YOU EITHER WANT TO RETREAT AND LIVE TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY OR CHARGE FORWARD.
STAYING THERE AS A SITTING DUCK IS NOT A GREAT OPTION.
PEOPLE CONFLATE DOING NOTHING WITH BEING THE SAFE CHOICE WHEN SOMETIMES IN A LOT OF WALKS OF LIFE WE HAVE TO TAKE BOLD ACTION ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
IN POKER TERMS YOU, HAVE TO RAISE OR FOLD, SOMETIMES CALLING IS THE WORST CHOICE.
>> AND THAT'S WHAT YOU TALK ABOUT WHAT YOU LEARNED FROM POKER, WHICH THOSE OF US WHO ARE MUCH MORE AMATEURS THAN YOU ARE, YOU HAVE WON ALL SORTS OF TOURNAMENTS SOMETIMES DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO.
SO WE DON'T FOLD, WE DON'T RAISE, WE JUST CALL.
TELL ME WHY THAT'S A BAD STRATEGY.
>> IT'S A BAD CHOICE BECAUSE YOU WANT TO DICTATE THE ACTION IN POKER.
NOW AND THEN I'LL DEAL A BACKYARD GAME TO FRIENDS IN BROOKLYN WHO ARE PLAYING FOR IF FIRST TIME.
AND THE HALLMARK OF A BAD AMATEUR POKER PLAYER THEY JUST WANT TO CALL AND SEE WHAT UNFOLDS.
POKER IS A GAME ABOUT ARE COMED AGGRESSION.
>> HOW DOES THAT APPLY TO POLITICS THEN?
>> LOOK, I THINK POLITICS CAN BE VIEWED AS A STRATEGIC GAME, AMONG OTHER THINGS.
IT'S MUCH HIGHER STAKES THAN A POKER GAME FOR SURE.
BUT BOTH PARTIES ARE INTELLIGENT.
THEY BOTH HAVE AN INCENTIVE TO WIN.
IN THE LONG RUN, BOTH PARTIES WIN ABOUT HALF THE TIME.
I THINK ONE MISTAKE THAT TRUMP MADE IS TO UNDERSTATEMENT DEMOCRATS' WILLINGNESS TO CHANGE THEIR CANDIDATE.
DEMOCRATS DO NOT HAVE A PERSONALITY CULT AROUND JOE BIDEN THAT THE GOP DOES AROUND TRUMP.
THEY KIND OF SELECTED BIDEN IN 2020.
JIM CLYBURN AND OTHERS CAME BEHIND TO SPARK HIM INTO THE NOMINATION AND THEY PUSHED HIM ASIDE WHEN IT WAS IN THEIR STRATEGIC INTERESTS TO PICK ANOTHER CANDIDATE INSTEAD.
>> IN YOUR BOOK, YOU SAY YOUR FIRST LOVE IS NOT REALLY POLITICS.
YOUR FIRST LOVE IS POKER.
YOU ARE A GREAT POKER PLAYER.
YOU PLAYED ONLINE AND SOME BILL SAYING YOU COULDN'T COLLECT YOUR WINNINGS ON LINE.
AND THAT DROVE YOU INTO POLITICS.
EXPLAIN THAT.
>> I HAD A BORING CONSULTING JOB OUT OF COLLEGE.
A FRIEND OF MINE AT WORK WANTED TO START A POKER GAME.
I STARTED PRACTICING.
PLAYING FREE GAMES ON A INTERNET.
POKER IS A GAME PLAYED FOR MONEY.
EVENTUALLY DEPOSITED ON THE SOMEWHAT SKETCHY OFFSHORE SITES.
AND IT WAS A TIME WHEN IT WAS CALLED THE POKER BOOM, BUT MORE LIKE A POKER BUBBLE WHERE YOU HAD LOT OF DUMB MONEY, MAYBE LIKE THE CRYPTO BUBBLE FROM YEARS AGO.
BEING MEDIOCRE, I WAS BETTER THAN THE COMPETITION.
THE CLICHE IF YOU CAN'T SPOT THE SUCKER AT THE TABLE, YOU'RE THE SUCKER.
EVERYONE WAS A SUCKER AND I WAS HALFWAY DECENT.
FOR A TIME, IT WITH AUSTRALIA GOOD WAY TO EARN A LIVING.
>> TELL ME ABOUT SOME OF THE LESSONS YOU LEARNED FROM POKER AND HOW THAT APPLIES TO OTHER THINGS.
>> LOOK, THE GREAT EMILY BRUNSON, MAYBE THE BEST PLAYER OF ALL TIME BEFORE HE PASSED AWAY PREACHED TIGHT POKER, YOU'RE SELECTIVE WHICH HANDS.
WHEN YOU PLAY THEM, YOU PLAY AGGRESSIVELY AND IT'S IMPORTANT TO BLUFF.
THE REASON WHY POKER WORKS IS YOU HAVE TO BLUFF TO INDUCE YOUR POINTS TO CALL WHEN YOU IS A STRONG HAND.
THERE IS A LOT OF EMOTIONAL DISCIPLINE THAT YOU FACE WHEN YOU PLAY POKER.
IF YOU LOSE A BIG POT AND LOSE HALF YOUR STACK YOU STILL HAVE TO BATTLE FOR THE NEXT HAND, OR VICE VERSA.
SOMETIMES PEOPLE GO ON WHAT'S CALLED TILT, BEING EMOTIONAL AND NOT PLAYING OPTIMALLY.
THAT CAN HAPPEN ON A WINNING STREAK TOO.
A LOT OF PEOPLE IN MY WORLD, THE WORLD I CALL THE RIVER OF CALCULATED RISK TAKING, THEY GO ON A WINNING STREAK AND THEN THEY GET OVERCONFIDENT.
AND THAT'S A BIG RISK AS WELL.
>> ONE OF THE CHARACTERS IN YOUR BOOK THAT'S PRETTY BIG IS ELON MUSK.
AND HE SAYS THAT WE USED TO BE A NATION OF RISK TAKER, BUT NOW WE'VE BECOME A NATION WITH MORE REFEREES THAN RISK TAKERS.
DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT?
>> I AGREE WITH THAT IN PART.
I THINK, LOOK, SILICON VALLEY IS STILL THE INNOVATION CAPITAL OF THE WORLD IN AI, WHICH MIGHT BE THE MOST IMPORTANT TECHNOLOGY OF THE NEXT GENERATION, AND THE U.S. IS A LEADER RIGHT NOW.
YOU KNOW, ATTRACTING IMMIGRANTS FROM ALL AROUND THE WORLD IS VERY IMPORTANT.
BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WE SAW -- I THINK COVID REVEALED THAT THERE IS A STREAK MAYBE ON THE EAST COAST PARTICULAR OF RISK AVERSION.
INSTEAD OF TRYING TO WAY RISK AND REWARDS.
LOOK, THE BOOK IN SOME WAYS IS ABOUT AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM IN CERTAIN WAYS.
OUR ECONOMY IS STILL GROWING WHERE EUROPE'S HAS STAGNATED FOR EXAMPLE.
AND RISK-TAKING COUNTRIES TEND TO WIN IN THE LONG RUN.
>> TELL ME ABOUT COVID AND HOW WE MISCALCULATED IN YOUR MIND RISKS DURING THAT PERIOD.
>> YEAH, LOOK.
IT'S A HARD PROBLEM TO SOLVE.
IT'S THE WORST PEOPLE THAT THE WORLD FACED IN 100 YEARS.
AND MAYBE WHERE OUR TUITIONS WEREN'T VERY VALUABLE THERE.
BUT SOMETIMES THINGS THAT ARE HARD TO CALCULATE LIKE THE VALUE OF BEING ABLE TO HAVE A SOCIAL LIFE OR THE VALUE MORE IMPORTANTLY OF BEING ABLE TO SEND YOUR KIDS TO SCHOOL, THAT HAS HUGE CONSEQUENCES THAT WILL BE REALIZED YEARS LATER WHEN YOU HAVE HALF A YEAR OF EDUCATION PERMANENTLY LOST TO STUDENTS AROUND THE U.S.
IF YOU TRY TO CALCULATE THAT, IT'S HARD.
IT AS EFFECTS ON THE WELL-BEING AND GDP AND EVERYTHING ELSE.
UNFORTUNATELY, WE HAVE TO MAKE DECISIONS, RIGHT.
WE CAN'T JUST CALL AGAIN IN THE POKER SENSE ALL THE TIME.
AND I THINK IN THAT SENSE, WE COULD HAVE BEEN MAYBE BOLDER ABOUT SHUTTING DOWN MORE STRICTLY AT THE START AND REALIZING AFTER THE FIRST COUPLE OF MONTHS WE HAD TO OPEN UP AND PAY A PRICE, BUT THAT THE CONSEQUENCES OF NOT GETTING BACK TO NORMAL FOR EDUCATION AND OTHER SECTIONS OF THE ECONOMY OUTWEIGHED THE FRANKLY HORRIBLE DEATH TOLL.
BUT IT'S A TOUGH CHOICE YOU HAVE TO MAKE.
YOU CAN'T AVOID TOUGH CHOICES SOMETIMES.
>> DID THE PARTISAN RESPONSE TO COVID IN SOME WAY SHIFT YOUR OWN POLITICAL THINKING?
>> YEAH, LOOK.
ONE TREND THAT YOU'VE SEEN FOR THE PAST 15 OR 20 YEARS IS THAT MORE AND MORE PEOPLE WHO GO TO COLLEGE OR ESPECIALLY HAVE ADVANCED DEGREES ARE LIBERALS AND DEMOCRATS, WHICH IS FINE.
BUT WHEN YOU HAVE COMMUNITIES WHERE 95% OF THE PEOPLE ARE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS, YOU CAN HAVE A CON CALCULATION BETWEEN EXPERTISE FOR EXPERTISE'S SAKE AND USING THAT AS A WEAPON FOR QUESTIONS LIKE THE ORIGINS OF COVID SEEM HIGHLY AMBIGUOUS TO ME.
BUT BECAUSE PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS ON THE SIDE OF THE LAB LEAK, THAT STRESSED VALID DISCUSSION ABOUT THE DISEASE THAT WE DON'T KNOW YET.
THERE IS NO SIGN OF CONSENSUS ABOUT HOW IT EMERGED.
THAT CAUSED TO ME A LOSS OF TRUST IN THESE INSTITUTIONS.
AND PART OF WHAT THE BOOK IS ABOUT IN A WORLD WHERE WE FEEL LIKE WE HAVE TO FEND FOR OURSELVES.
EVERY ENTY HAS DECLINED PERCEPTIONS OF TRUST.
YOU HAVE TO MAKE UP YOUR OWN MIND, AND THAT'S WHAT THE BOOK IS ABOUT.
>> TO WHAT EXTENT IS A TASTE FOR RISK-TAKING AN INGRAINED TRAIT?
>> I THINK IT'S PRETTY GENETIC.
I TALKED TO A MAN NAMED VICTOR IN THE BOOK WHO IS THE ULTIMATE RISK TAKER.
HE HAS CLIMBED THE SEVEN SUMMITS ON EVERY CONTINENT.
HE HAS GONE TO THE DEPTHS OF THE FIVE OCEANS.
HE'S GONE INTO OUTER SPACE.
HE'S BEEN A FIGHTER PILOT.
AND HE'S WHEN I TALK TO OTHER PEOPLE WHO ARE TAKING THESE RISKS, BECAUSE HE KNOWS IF YOU'RE ON A MOUNTAIN 28,000-FEET HIGH, RIGHT, YOU CAN'T CONTROL EVERY RISK.
THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF AN AVALANCHE OR A MISSTEP.
HE HAS BEEN IN ACCIDENTS BEFORE.
AND HE TALKS TO OTHER EXPLORERS.
AND YEAH, THERE IS JUST SOMETHING INNATE, GENETIC, I DON'T KNOW IF HE KNOWS WHAT IT IS, BUT SOME PEOPLE JUST HAVE AN INTRINSIC DESIRE TO PUSH BOUNDARIES, I THINK.
>> DO YOU THINK THAT THERE IS A FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE PHYSICAL PHYSICAL RISK TAKER, PEOPLE CLIMBING MOUNTAINS, ASTRONAUTS, VERSUS SOMEBODY WHO LOVES DAY TRADING ON CRYPTOCURRENCY OR GAMBLING ON THE ROULETTE WHEEL?
>> TALKING TO BOTH GROUPS, I THINK THERE ISN'T.
IN PART BECAUSE WHEN YOU PLAY POKER, YOUR BODY FOR HIGH TAKES, YOUR BODY PERCEIVES THE RISK.
YOU ACTUALLY SEE YOUR HEART RATE INCREASE.
YOU SEE TIME PERCEPTION CAN SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BIT.
EVEN IN THINGS IF YOU ARE EVER GIVING A PUBLIC SPEECH AT A HIGH-STAKES SITUATION, WHERE IF YOU FLUB THE SPEECH, IT'S GOING TO LOOK BADLY ON YOU.
IT MIGHT HURT YOUR CAREER.
YOU CAN GET STAGE FRIGHT.
BUT OTHER PEOPLE BECOME POSSESSED AND IN THE ZONE AND BE BETTER UNDER PRESSURE THAN OTHER PEOPLE.
HAVING THAT SKILL -- AND THE GOOD NEWS, BY THE WAY, IS IT CAN BE LEARNED.
I THINK KAMALA HARRIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF A CANDIDATE WHO WAS NOT VERY GOOD IN HER FIRST CAMPAIGN IN 2020, BUT HAD A LOT OF PRACTICE GIVING SPEECHES ALL AROUND THE WORLD.
AND NOW SEEMS LIKE A MUCH BETTER CANDIDATE, AT LEAST SUBJECTIVELY TO ME.
SO YOU CAN TRAIN YOURSELF WHEN YOU'RE OPERATING ON OPERATING SYSTEM AND YOUR BODY HAS A STRESS RESPONSE, YOU'RE PICKING UP MORE INFORMATION FROM YOUR ENVIRONMENT.
AND YOU'LL SOMETIMES HEAR PEOPLE LIKE MICHAEL JORDAN TALK ABOUT HOW I'M IN THE ZONE, AND I SEE MORE THINGS AND TIMES THOSE DOWN.
I CAN THINK REALLY CLEARLY.
THAT'S A RARE TRAIT, BUT IF YOU POSSESS IT AND IF YOU PRACTICE IN THAT ZONE, THEN YOU CAN ACTUALLY ACCOMPLISH TREMENDOUS THINGS.
>> IF YOU WERE ADVISING LET'S START WITH THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN, WHICH CALCULATED RISKS WOULD YOU BEING ARE TO TAKE AND WHICH WOULD YOU AVOID?
I THINK THERE IS A CASE THAT SHE SHOULD HAVE PICKED JOSH SHAPIRO OF PENNSYLVANIA AS HER RUNNING MATE.
THAT'S KIND OF THE PERCENTAGE PLAY GIVEN HOW IMPORTANT PENNSYLVANIA IS TO THE OUTCOME.
I THINK NOW SHE HAS TO WORRY A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE RISK OF COMPLACENCY.
YOU KNOW, SHE IS A LITTLE BIT AHEAD IN THE POLLS RIGHT NOW.
SHE'LL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AHEAD AFTER THE CONVENTION.
BUT THE POLLS HAVE BEEN WRONG BEFORE.
WE SAW WITH HILLARY CLINTON IN 2016 HOW HAVING A TWO OR THREE-POINT LEAD IS FAR FROM A GUARANTEE OF SUCCESS.
>> AND WHAT ABOUT THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN?
WHAT RISK DO YOU THINK THEY SHOULD BE TAKING NOW?
>> YEAH, LOOK.
THE TERM THAT WE USE IN POKER SOMETIMES AS A PLAYER IS ON TILT WHERE THEY'RE PLAYING EMOTIONALLY.
AND SOME OF TRUMP'S RECENT DECISIONS ARE HARD TO RATIONALIZE, I THINK.
GOING AFTER KAMALA HARRIS' RACE, COMPLAINING ABOUT AI-ENHANCED CROWD SIZES WHEN THERE ARE A LOT OF LOW-HANGING FRUIT IN TERMS OF IMMIGRATION ON THE BORDER, IN TERMS OF HARRIS RUNNING VERY FAR TO HER LEFT IN 2020.
LOOK, TRUMP THOUGHT HE HAD A WINNING HAND.
HE THOUGHT HE HAD THE CAMPAIGN IN THE BAG.
AND WITH BIDEN AS A CANDIDATE, HE MIGHT HAVE.
BUT HE HAS TO ADJUST AND RECALIBRATE.
THEY'VE BEEN VERY SLOW ON THE DRAW AS DEMOCRATS REDEFINE J.D.
VANCE NEGATIVELY AND TIM WALZ POSITIVELY.
AND THERE IS NOT MUCH MORE TIME TO MAKE UP AT THIS POINT.
>> EINSTEIN ONCE SAID THAT ALL GREAT IDEAS COME FROM INTUITION.
BUT HE SAID ALL GREAT INTUITION COMES FROM PROCESSING A WHOLE LOT OF EARLIER EXPERIENCES.
YOU TALK IN THE BOOK ABOUT QUANTIFYING INTUITION.
EXPLAIN THAT.
>> SO IN POKER, YOU KIND OF ACTUALLY CAN DEVELOP A SIXTH SENSE BASED ON SOMEONE'S MANNERISMS, THE WAY THEIR POSTURE, THANKS LIKE THAT.
IF YOU SEE THEIR HEART BEATING IN THEIR NECK, FOR EXAMPLE YOU DEVELOP AN INTUITION YOU CORRELATE THAT WITH WHETHER THEY HAVE A STRONG OR WEEK HAND, THOUGH IT'S VERY CONTEXTUAL.
SOME PLAYERS GET MORE NERVOUS WHEN THEY'RE BLUFFING.
SOME GET MORE NERVOUS WHEN THEY HAVE A STRONG HAND AND ARE TRYING TO WIN A POT.
IT HAS TO BE PRACTICED.
INTUITION PROVIDES US DATA IF WE KNOW HOW TO CORRELATE THAT WITH BEHAVIORAL TRAITS.
ANOTHER PERSON -- NANCY PELOSI TALKED ABOUT HER INTUITION WITH EZRA KLEIN FOR UNDERSTANDING HOW THE DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS BEHAVES.
AND I BELIEVE IN HER INTUITION.
SHE UNDERSTANDS HOW DEMOCRATIC LEGISLATORS FOR SURE.
IT'S A MATTER OF PRACTICE AND SKILL.
IT'S A MATTER OF NOT JUST TRUSTING YOUR GUT BECAUSE YOU'RE BEING LAZY.
BUT IF YOU HAVE THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS OF EXPERIENCE IT CAN BE HELPFUL.
>> AT THE END OF YOUR BOOK, YOU TALK ABOUT CERTAIN THINGS WE COULD DO TO HAVE A BETTER SOCIETY.
YOU TALK ABOUT AGENCY.
YOU TALK ABOUT PLURALITY.
AND YOU ALSO TALK ABOUT RECIPROCITY.
LET ME DEAL WITH THE RECIPROCITY ONE.
THAT SEEMED THE MOST INTERESTING AND WHAT WE MOST NEED NOW.
EXPLAIN THAT TO ME.
>> THIS COMES PARTLY FROM GAME THEORY.
AND GAME THEORY IS WHAT EVOLVES WHEN BOTH YOU AND YOUR OPPONENT ARE PLAYING STRATEGICALLY AND ROUGHLY RATIONALY IN YOUR DECISION MAKING.
IN THE UNITED STATES, BOTH PARTIES WIN ELECTIONS ROUGHLY HALF THE TIME.
BECAUSE THEY DO ADAPT.
DONALD TRUMP UNDERSTOOD MAYBE THERE WERE OPPORTUNITIES AMONG WHITE WORKING CLASS VOTERS THAT WERE BEING NEGLECTED BY THE MITT ROMNEY, PAUL RYAN TYPE OF CANDIDATES.
RISK, THOUGH, I THINK THERE IS A RISK THAT BOTH PARTIES GET CAUGHT UP IN THEIR OWN BUBBLE AND DON'T GIVE THE OTHER SIDE CREDIT FOR ADAPTING INTELLIGENTLY.
I THINK MOST OBVIOUSLY THE CASE WITH THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN'S INABILITY TO SEE DEMOCRATS SWITCHING THEIR CANDIDATE WHICH IS THE RIGHT MOVE.
ASSUME YOUR OPPONENT IS PLAYING THEIR HAND WELL AND PLAY YOUR HAND BEST AS WELL BEGIN THAT.
THAT'S RECIPROCITY.
SOMETIMES YOU GET LUCKY AND A CANDIDATE MAKES A MISTAKE.
MOST OF THE TIME IT'S A COMPETITIVE MARKET, IT'S A COMPETITIVE ECONOMY.
SO GIVE YOUR OPPONENTS CREDIT AND ADAPT FROM THERE.
>> NATE SILVER, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.
>> THANK YOU, WALTER.
>>> AND AFTER THAT, THE WORLD, ALL OF US WILL BE WATCHING AND WAITING TO SEE WHETHER AND WHAT RISK CANDIDATES HARRIS AND TRUMP COULD TAKE, AND IF THEY PAY OFF.
>>> FINALLY, THE QUEEN OF SALSA, CELIA CRUZ CONQUERED THE WORLD OF MUSIC, AND NOW SHE IS BRINGING HER RHYTHM TO THE U.S. QUARTER.
THAT IS THE 25-CENT COIN.
THE CUBAN SINGER WHO DIED IN 2003 BECOMES THE FIRST AFRO-LATINA TO APPEAR ON A U.S. CURRENCY.
HER CONTAGIOUS STAGE PRESENCE AND SIGNATURE AZUCAR MOTTO, WHICH MEANS SUGAR IN SPANISH, TURNED HER INTO A HOUSE NAME TO LEGIONS OF SALSA LOVERS.
HER HITS LIKE "LIFE IS A CARNIVAL" ARE NOW ANTHEMS IN LATIN AMERICA.
>>> AND THAT'S IT FOR OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.
IF YOU WANT TO FIND OUT WHAT'S COMING UP EVERY NIGHT, SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER AT PBS.ORG/AMANPOUR.
THANKS FOR WATCHING.
AND NOW WE LEAVE YOU WITH SOME OF THE INIMITABLE CELIA CRUZ.
JOIN US AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.
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