Biden Out, Harris In: “This Is Exactly What the Trump Team Feared”

>>> FROM ONE UNCERTAIN ELECTION TO ANOTHER.

OUR NEXT GUEST HAD A FRONT ROW SEAT TO WHAT HAS BEEN A DRAMATIC TURN OF EVENTS FOR DONALD TRUMP AND HIS TEAM.

THE ATLANTIC STAFF WRITER TIM ALBERTA SPENT MONTHS BEHIND THE SCENES OF HIS CAMPAIGN, AND JUST TWO WEEKS AGO, REPORTED THAT THEY WERE PLANNING FOR A LANDSLIDE VICTORY, ON THE CONDITION THAT JOE BIDEN DIDN'T DROP OUT.

WELL, NOW THEIR WORST FEARS HAVE COME TRUE.

ALBERTA JOINS MICHEL MARTIN TO DISCUSS HOW THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS SHIFTING ITS APPROACH TO CONFRONT A NEW DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE.

>> THANK YOU, BIANNA.

TIM ALBERTA, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

>> YOU'RE WELCOME, THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

>> ONE OF THE REASONS WE CALLED YOU IS THAT YOU HAVE BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN FOR SOME MONTHS NOW.

I WOULD GO SO FAR AS YOU'VE KIND OF BEEN IMBEDDED WITH THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN.

SO, WHAT WAS THE REACTION WHEN THEY HEARD THAT PRESIDENT BIDEN HAD DECIDED TO WITHDRAW FROM HIS RE-ELECTION BID AND THROW HIS SUPPORT TO KAMALA HARRIS?

WHAT WAS THE REACTION?

>> YOU KNOW, I WOULD SAY THAT THEY WERE PRETTY SURPRISED.

I DON'T THINK THEY WERE SHOCKED, BECAUSE THEY'D BEEN THINKING ABOUT THIS FOR A VERY LONG TIME.

TO BE CLEAR, I'VE WRITTEN ABOUT HOW GOING BACK MANY MONTHS, THEY WERE PREPARING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SWITCH ATOP THE DEMOCRATIC TICKET, WELL PRE-DATING JOE BIDEN'S DISASTROUS DEBATE PERFORMANCE IN LATE JUNE.

BUT I THINK BY THE TIME THE CONVENTION ROLLED AROUND IN MILWAUKEE, AND IT HAD BEEN SEVERAL WEEKS AT THAT POINT SINCE THE DEBATE, AND BIDEN REALLY SEEMED TO BE DIGGING IN, AND HIS TOP ADVISERS WERE TELLING EVERYONE THAT HE WAS GOING TO STICK THIS OUT, I THINK THE TRUMP FOLKS HAD REALLY REACHED THE CONCLUSION AT THAT POINT THAT HE WAS GOING TO SAY IN THE, THAT HE WAS GOING TO BE THEIR OPPONENT.

SO, I THINK SUDDENLY, SUNDAY, WHEN THE NEWS CAME, THEY WERE PRETTY SURPRISED.

AND UNPLEASANTLY SURPRISED, I WOULD ADD, BECAUSE THIS WAS WHO THEY WANTED TO RUN AGAINST.

MAKE NO MISTAKE, JOE BIDEN WAS THE OPTIMAL TARGET, THEY FELT, FOR DONALD TRUMP AND THIS CAMPAIGN.

>> AND WHY IS THAT?

>> WELL, I THINK THAT THE FUNDAMENTAL FRAME THAT THE TRUMP PEOPLE HAD WANTED TO USE IN THIS ELECTION WAS ABOUT STRENGTH VERSUS WEAKNESS.

AND CERTAINLY, AT A POLICY LEVEL, THEY'RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT INFLATION AT HISTORIC LEVELS, THEY'RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT THE SOUTHERN BORDER BEING OVERRUN, THEY'RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT GEOPOLITICAL CHAOS AROUND THE WORLD AND HOW BIDEN IS JUST TOO WEAK TO HANDLE ALL OF THIS.

BUT I THINK REALLY, IN A MORE INTIMATE, VISCERAL WAY, THEY WERE GOING TO SEIZE UPON BIDEN'S AGE AND HIS VISIBLE DECLINE TO REALLY TRY TO PAINT TRUMP AS THIS SORT OF MACHO, FORCEFUL ALPHA, COMPARED TO JOE BIDEN, WHO WAS FEEBLE AND SORT OF FADING BEFORE OUR VERY EYES.

AND ALL OF THE POLLING THAT THEY WERE DOING, ALL OF THE FOCUS GROUPING THAT THE TRUMP FOLKS HAD DONE, ALL THE MODELING OF DIFFERENT VOTERS, WAS REALLY SHOWING THAT TO BE A VERY EFFECTIVE STRATEGY, AND THEY FELT LIKE THEY HAD THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN KIND OF BACKED INTO A CORNER HERE, AND IF YOU TALK TO DEMOCRATS, THEY SORT OF BELIEVED THE SAME THING.

JUST -- THERE WERE A LOT OF FOLKS CLOSE TO BIDEN WHO WERE REALLY BEGINNING TO QUESTION WHETHER THERE WAS ANY PATH FORWARD FOR HIM, GIVEN THE DAMAGE THAT HE HAD ALREADY SUSTAINED.

>> YOU'VE WRITTEN ABOUT THE FACT THAT THEY WERE ACTUALLY TALKING LANDSLIDE.

THEY ACTUALLY BELIEVED THEY WERE GOING TO HAVE A LANDSLIDE, AT LEAST IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE, IF NOT IN THE POPULAR VOTE.

WHY WERE THEY SO CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT, WHAT MADE THEM SAY THAT?

>> YOU KNOW, I THINK IT COMES DOWN TO A COUPLE OF THINGS.

FIRST, IF YOU LOOK AT THE POLLING THAT'S BEEN DONE PUBLICLY, AS WELL AS THE PRIVATE POLLING THAT BOTH PARTIES HAVE BEEN PRIVY TO, IT SHOWN PRETTY CONSISTENTLY TRUMP WITH SAFE AND GROWING LEADS ACROSS MOST OF THESE BATTLEGROUND STATES.

THE CORE BATTLEGROUND STATES THAT BOTH CAMPAIGNS HAVE BEEN FIGHTING OVER FOR SOME TIME.

BUT THEN BEYOND THAT, WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST SIX WEEKS OR SO ARE SOME REAL HINTS THAT OTHER STATES THAT HAD BEEN THOUGHT TO BE SAFELY DEMOCRATIC, STATES LIKE MINNESOTA, STATES LIKE VIRGINIA, NEW HAMPSHIRE, THAT THEY WERE COMING INTO PLAY.

AND THIS WAS NOT JUST SPIN FROM THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN, THERE WERE DEMOCRATS LOOKING AT THE NUMBERS, CONCLUDING THE SAME THING.

I THINK THE OTHER PROBLEMATIC ELEMENT FOR BIDEN THAT DEMOCRATS WERE UNABLE TO -- TO LOOK AWAY FROM ONCE THEY SAW IT, WAS JUST THIS CHASM OF INTENSITY, ENTHUSIASM, BETWEEN WHERE THE REPUBLICANS HAVE BEEN, WITH THE REPUBLICAN BASE SORT OF FULLY ONBOARD WITH TRUMP, AND DONATING LOTS OF MONEY AND VOLUNTEERING AND COMING OUT AND REALLY SHOWING A -- A UNITED FRONT AROUND THEIR NOMINEE, VERSUS BIDEN, WHO, BASED ON A LOT OF JUST SORT OF ON THE GROUND METRICS THAT DEMOCRATS IN THESE SWING STATES HAVE DESCRIBED TO ME, THAT THEIR ENTHUSIASM WAS REALLY ANEMIC.

THAT THEY WERE REALLY STRUGGLING TO GET THEIR BASE VOTERS, PARTICULARLY YOUNG PEOPLE, PARTICULARLY YOUNG MEN OF COLOR, THAT THEY JUST COULD NOT GET THESE PEOPLE FIRED UP ABOUT THIS ELECTION, AND THAT THERE WAS A VERY REAL CHANCE THAT THOSE VOTERS, SOME OF THEM WOULD ACTUALLY DEFECT TO TRUMP, NOT JUST SIT OUT THE ELECTION, BUT WOULD ACTUALLY SWITCH AND VOTE REPUBLICAN.

SO, I THINK THE COMBINATION OF THOSE THINGS WAS LEADING A LOT OF REPUBLICANS AND SOME DEMOCRATS TO CONCLUDE THAT WE MIGHT BE HEADED TOWARDS A LANDSLIDE ELECTION.

>> SO, HOW DOES HAIR HARRIS DISRUPT THOSE CALCULATIONS?

>> SO, LET'S BE CLEAR.

KAMALA HARRIS IS GOING TO INHERIT SOME OF JOE BIDEN'S BAGGAGE, THAT'S JUST INEVITABLE, BECAUSE SHE IS HIS VICE PRESIDENT, YOU KNOW, WHEN IT COMES TO QUESTIONS AROUND IMMIGRATION, THE ECONOMY.

THERE'S NO DOUBT THAT SHE'S GOING TO TAKE SOME OF THE HITS THERE.

BUT KAMALA HARRIS IS TWO DECADES YOUNGER THAN DONALD TRUMP, AND WHAT WE KNOW IS THAT THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN WAS REALLY COUNTING ON A SORT OF STAMINA TEST IN THIS CAMPAIGN, THAT THEY WERE GOING TO BE FLYING AROUND THE COUNTRY, DOING TONS OF EVENTS, THAT THEY WERE GOING TO BE RUNNING CIRCLES AROUND JOE BIDEN, AND THAT THEY WERE GOING TO BE DRAWING THIS CONTRAST IN TERPS OF ENERGY AND THIS SORT OF -- THIS DISPLAY OF HOW REPUBLICANS WERE THE ONES FIGHTING FOR YOU, WHILE DEMOCRATS ARE SORT OF ASLEEP AT THE SWITCH.

AND KAMALA HARRIS, OBVIOUSLY, IS GOING TO CHANGE THAT DYNAMIC, IN A FUNDAMENTAL WAY.

SHE'S GOING TO HIT THE TRAIL.

SHE'S GOING TO BE OUT THERE, AND SHE'S GOING TO BE CAMPAIGNING IN SETTINGS AND IN WAYS THAT JOE BIDEN SIMPLY COULDN'T.

>> HOW ABOUT THAT BAGGAGE QUESTION?

I MEAN, LOOK, THE DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN LEANING INTO POLICY, THEY'VE BEEN -- THEY'VE BEEN SAYING THAT JOE BIDEN HAS DELIVERED ON WHAT HE PROMISED, RIGHT?

THEY SAY, THIS HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL ADMINISTRATIONS, YOU KNOW, IN DECADES, YOU KNOW, THE REPUBLICANS, I THINK, HAVE BEEN ARGUING THAT THEY PRIORITIZED THE WRONG THINGS, WHAT THEY SHOULD HAVE BEEN PRIORITIZING WAS THE SOUTHERN BORDER AND INFLATION, YOU KNOW, OVERALL.

HOW DOES HARRIS DEAL WITH THAT?

>> IT'S A REALLY INTERESTING QUESTION, BECAUSE DEMOCRATS HAVE TRIED FROM THE TOP DOWN FOR THE PAST YEAR TO SELL AMERICANS ON THIS IDEA OF THIS ADMINISTRATION HAVING BEEN INCREDIBLY SUCCESSFUL, HAVING PASSED REALLY CONSEQUENTIAL LEGISLATION, HAVING PROVEN TO BE REALLY COMPETENT IN CLEARING SOME TOUGH GOVERNING HURDLES, AND THE PUBLIC HAS JUST RESPONDED WITH A SHRUG.

WE'VE GOT A LOT OF POLLING, A LOT OF DATA POINTS TO SHOW THAT DEMOCRATS REALLY HAVEN'T HAD ANY RETURN ON THAT INVESTMENT.

SO, IT'S GOING TO BE INTERESTING TO SEE, JUST FROM A MESSAGING STANDPOINT, WHETHER THE VICE PRESIDENT NOW TAKING OVER FOR THE PRESIDENT, WHETHER SHE IS GOING TO BE JUST AS INSISTENT ON RUNNING ON THESE ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF THE PAST, OR WILL SHE PIVOT AND BE MORE FORWARD-LOOKING IN THIS CAMPAIGN.

I MEAN, ONE OF THE MAXUMS OF POLITICAL CAMPAIGNING IS THAT IT'S AS ABOUT THE FUTURE, RIGHT?

AND SO, THAT IS OBVIOUSLY ONE AREA WHERE PRESIDENT BIDEN HAD REALLY STRUGGLED.

I MEAN, HE JUST WAS NOT ARTICULATING ANY SORT OF COHERENT, SPECIFIC VISION FOR WHAT AMERICA WOULD LOOK LIKE AFTER FOUR MORE YEARS OF HIS PRESIDENCY.

THAT'S GOING TO BE, I THINK, AN OPENING FOR KAMALA HARRIS, BUT OBVIOUSLY, THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS, AND WHAT IS IT THAT SHE IS ABLE TO SELL THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ON, CAN SHE MORE EFFECTIVELY OFFER A VISION THAN DONALD TRUMP?

THAT DOES IN SOME WAYS CHANGE THE VERY ESSENCE OF THE CAMPAIGN, BECAUSE SO MUCH OF WHAT BIDEN HAD BEEN DOING WAS TALKING ABOUT THESE LAST FOUR YEARS, I THINK OBVIOUSLY HARRIS WILL HAVE TO TALK ABOUT THE NEXT FOUR YEARS.

>> I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT A COUPLE OF KEY PLAYERS IN THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN, SPECIFICALLY CHRIS LESIVITA.

PEOPLE REMEMBER THAT HIS SWIFT BOAT VETERANS FOR TRUTH CAMPAIGN AGAINST JOHN KERRY IN 2004, IT IS CONSIDERED ONE OF THE MOST, YOU KNOW, SUCCESSFUL CAMPAIGNS, AND IN SOME QUARTERS, INFAMOUS.

YOU KNOW, KIND OF, THE AVATAR FOR SOME PEOPLE OF DIRTY POLITICS IN THE MODERN ERA.

SO, IT -- YOU REPORTED THAT HE WAS ACTUALLY HIS ABOUT TO JOIN TRUMP'S CAMPAIGN IN THE BEGINNING DUE TO HIS BEHAVIOR.

HE -- YOU SAY HE INITIALLY FELT ALARMED DURING TRUMP'S 2016 RISE AND THE MOB ATTACK ON THE CAPITOL, WHICH TRUMP, YOU KNOW, PROMOTED.

WHAT CHANGD HIS MIND?

MANY OTHERS WHO HAVE GONE TO WORK FOR DONALD TRUMP IN THE PAST, THEY SEE AN OPPORTUNITY HERE TO WIN THE PRESIDENCY, THEY SEE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CHANGE THE COUNTRY, THEY SEE AN OPPORTUNITY TO IMPLEMENT A VISION FOR AMERICA THAT WOULD RUN ALMOST DIRECTLY COUNTER TO THE VISION OF THE LEFT AND OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

AND SO, TO VARYING DEGREES, THEY FIND THEMSELVES WILL BE TO ACCOMMODATE THEMSELVES TO DONALD TRUMP, AND SORT OF SET ASIDE SOME OF THEIR QUALMS, SOME OF THEIR MISGIVINGS, AND CLIMB INTO THE FOX HOLE WITH HIM.

AND ONCE THEY'VE DONE THAT, I THINK, IN A LOT OF CASES, YOU SEE THESE FOLKS ON THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN NOT JUST IN 2024, BUT IN 2020, AS WELL, EVEN IN 2016, THEY START TO INTERNALIZE A LOT OF THE ATTACKS ON TRUMP, THEY BEGIN TO FIND THEMSELVES SORT OF IN MORE OF A CLOSE BOND WITH HIM AS THEY SEE HIM COMING UNDER FIRE, AND IT CREATES THIS DYNAMIC WHERE PEOPLE WHO ARE ONCE HIGHLY SKEPTICAL OF THE MAN BECOME SOME OF HIS STAUNCHEST ALLIES AND SOME OF HIS STRONGEST DEFENDERS.

AND SO, I THINK THAT'S TRUE FOR SOMEONE LIKE CHRIS, AND HE KIND OF, YOU KNOW, SAYS AS MUCH, AT TIMES, TO ME IN THE PIECE THAT YOU'RE REFERENCING.

AND I THINK IT IS ALSO TRUE FOR ANY NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE COME INTO TRUMP'S ORBIT OVER THE YEARS.

SOME OF THEM NOW HAVING COME OUT ON THE OTHER SIDE HAVE TALKED ABOUT THIS, WRITTEN ABOUT THIS THEMSELVES.

>> I AM CURIOUS ABOUT WHETHER -- SOME OF THE THINGS THAT HE GENERALLY EMPLOYS AGAINST HIS OPPONENTS, YOU KNOW, THE NAME-CALLING, THE NICKNAMES, THE KIND OF PERSONAL ATTACKS, IS THERE ANY POINT AT WHICH THEY -- THEY ARE CONCERNED THAT THAT -- THAT MIGHT NOT WORK AGAINST A KAMALA HARRIS, THAT THERE ARE TOO MANY PEOPLE WHO MIGHT IDENTIFY WITH HER WHO ARE IMPORTANT TO THEM, LIKE SUBURBAN WOMEN, THAT THEY THINK, YOU KNOW, MAYBE -- THERE'S A POINT AT WHICH EVEN HE CAN'T GO?

>> WELL, LOOK, THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT CAMPAIGNING AGAINST JOE BIDEN IS NOT THE SAME AS COMPANYING AGAINST KAMALA HARRIS.

AND THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS CERTAINLY ATTUNED TO THE SENSITIVITIES AROUND ATTACKING A WOMAN OF COLOR VERSUS ATTACKING AN OLDER WHITE MAN, AND THE QUESTION IS, REALLY, IS TRUMP ATTUNED TO THOSE SENSITIVITIES?

THEY CAN TELL HIM TO BE CAREFUL, THEY CAN ASK HIM TO PROOFREAD HIS SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS, OR TO TRY TO TONE THINGS DOWN BEFORE GOING ON STAGE AT A RALLY, BUT ULTIMATELY, DONALD TRUMP CAN NO T BE TAMED.

HE IS WHO HE IS, AND HE'S BEEN THE SAME MAN FOR A VERY, VERY LONG TIME, AND EVERYBODY WHO GOES TO WORK FOR HIM RECOGNIZES THAT SAME THING, ABOUT FIVE MINUTES AFTER THEY ARRIVE.

SO, WE'RE GOING TO SEE, THERE IS DEFINITELY CONCERN AMONG TRUMP'S ALLIES AND ACROSS THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, ABOUT THE PITFALLS OF -- OF RUNNING AGAINST KAMALA HARRIS.

>> WHAT ARE SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES THAT YOU'VE SEEN BETWEEN THE VOTER MOBILE VAIX STRATEGIES EMPLOYED BY EACH CAMPAIGN?

CAN YOU TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT, WHAT ARE THOSE STRATEGIES?

WHAT HAVE THEY BEEN ON EACH SIDE, AND HOW THAT MIGHT CHANGE?

>> SURE, WELL, THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN, NOW THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN, THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, HAS REALLY RUN A VERY CONVENTIONAL, LARGE-SCALE OPERATION, WHERE THEY'RE DROPPING, YOU KNOW, HUNDREDS AND HUNDREDS, ACTUALLY, I THINK NOW OVER 1,000 PAID STAFFERS INTO THE STATES THAT ARE GOING TO DECIDE THE ELECTION, AND THESE PEOPLE ARE KNOCKING ON DOORS, THEY'RE MAKING PHONE CALLS, THEY'RE HANDING OUT LITERATURE, THEY'RE DOING ALL THE TRADITIONAL FIELD OPERATIONS.

AND THEY BELIEVE THAT ULTIMATELY, THE BASE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY HAS NOT CHANGED, AND THAT THOSE PEOPLE WILL ULTIMATELY, WHEN PUSH COMES TO SHOVE, TURN OUT AND VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRAT IS, WHOEVER IT IS ATOP THE TICKET.

THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS THINKING VERY DIFFERENTLY.

THEY ARE EMPLOYING A MUCH SMALLER, NIMBLER FIELD OPERATION THAT'S REALLY BANKING MOSTLY ON UNPAID VOLUNTEERS, TRYING TO HARNESS SOME OF THE ENTHUSIASM IN THEIR PARTY'S BASE TO GO OUT AND DO TWO THINGS, NUMBER ONE, TO TRY TO GO OUT AND FIND NEW POCKETS OF TRUMP VOTERS, PEOPLE WHO ARE SYMPATHETIC TO THE MAG GA MOVEMENT, BUT WHO HAVE NOT VOTED FOR TRUMP IN THE PAST.

HOW MANY OF THOSE PEOPLE REALLY EXIST?

WE DON'T KNOW.

BUT THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN THINKS THAT THERE ARE QUITE A FEW OF THEM, AND THEY BELIEVE THEY CAN GO OUT, IDENTIFY THOSE PEOPLE, AND TURN THEM OUT TO VOTE IN NOVEMBER.

THE OTHER THING THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS TRYING TO DO IS, THEY ARE VERY INTENT ON SIPHONING AWAY VOTES FROM THE DEMOCRATIC BASE, PARTICULARLY BLACK MEN, AGES 18 TO 34, LATINO MEN UNDER 40, MAYBE UNDER 45, THERE IS A BELIEF THAT WORKING CLASS MINORITY MEN IN PARTICULAR ARE RIPE TARGETS FOR THIS TRUMP CAMPAIGN, IN THIS POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT.

AND SO, WHAT YOU'RE SEEING ARE A LOT OF MICROTARGETED EFFORTS, NOT NECESSARILY KNOCKING ON THOSE DOORS, NOT GOING TO THEM PHYSICALLY, BUT REACHING THEM DIGITALLY AND THROUGH TV AND MAIL, TRYING TO GET THESE FOLKS WHO HAVE IN MY CASES, NO HISTORY OF VOTING REPUBLICAN, TO DO SO FOR THE FIRST TYPE.

>> I WANT TO ASKING ABOUT SOMETHING.

YOU SAID THE MOST STRIKING THING FROM THE TRUMP ALLIES, THEY WERE SECOND-GUESSING J.D.

VANCE.

>> HE WAS A LUXURY PICK FOR DONALD TRUMP.

THIS IS SOMEONE WHO DOES NOT NECESSARILY ADD THE IMPACT THAT YOU WOULD LOOK FOR IN A REALLY CLOSE ELECTION.

SO, IF YOU ARE THINKING ABOUT THESE SUBURBAN SWING VOTERS WHO ARE RIGHT ON THE FENCE AND WHO COULD GO EITHER WAY, THEN THERE'S A STRONG ARGUMENT TO BE MADE, AND IT WAS BEING MADE TO DONALD TRUMP BY CERTAIN PEOPLE CLOSE TO HIM, THAT MARCO RUBIO WOULD BE A MUCH BETTER OPTION.

EVEN SOMEONE LIKE A NIKKI HALEY, THAT WAS ALWAYS GOING TO BE UNLIKELY, GIVEN THE TUMULTUOUS RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HER AND TRUMP.

BUT THE POINT IS, THERE WERE OTHER OPTIONS FOR DONALD TRUMP THAT WOULD HAVE MADE A LOT MORE SENSE ON PAPER THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN PROBABLY MORE EFFECTIVE IN REACHING OUT TO INDEPENDENTS AND MODERATE VOTERS.

J.D.

VANCE IS REALLY SEEN AS SOMEONE WHO IS ENERGIZE THE BASE AND WHO CAN TAKE TRUMP'S CORE MESSAGE OF POPULISM RIGHT TO THE HEART OF, YOU KNOW, THESE RUST BELT STATES AND HAMMER HOME THE IDEA THAT DEMOCRATS HAVE LET DOWN THE AMERICAN WORKER.

THAT'S FINE, AND THAT CAN STILL BE EFFECTIVE, BUT I THINK A LOT OF REPUBLICANS WORRY THAT THOSE VOTERS WERE PROBABLY ALREADY GOING TO BE IN TRUMP'S CATEGORY, THEY WERE GOING TO BE VOTING REPUBLICAN, AND THE UPSIDE OF PICKING VANCE IS PRETTY LIMITED, RELATIVE TO THE UPSIDE OF SOMEBODY ELSE, WHO MIGHT BE ABLE, IN A VERY CLOSE ELECTION, TO CONVINCE SOME OF THESE OTHER VOTERS WHO ARE MUCH LESS PERSUADABLE.

>> BEFORE WE LET YOU GO, TIM, IS THERE A VICE PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDER THAT THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS REALLY WORRIED ABOUT?

LIKE, WHO IS THEIR -- WHO IS THEIR WORSE NIGHTMARE?

>> WELL, THERE ARE TWO NAMES THAT HAVE COME UP QUITE A BIT, AND THAT'S MARK KELLY, THE SENATOR FROM ARIZONA, JOSH SHAPIRO, THE GOVERNOR OF PENNSYLVANIA.

BOTH OF THESE GUYS ARE SEEN AS A REALLY EFFECTIVE COUNTERBALANCE TO KAMALA HARRIS, BECAUSE THEY ARE MORE MODERATE THAN SHE IS, ON A RANGE OF ISSUES, THERE ARE ALSO MEN WHO REPRESENT BATTLEGROUND STATES THAT THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN FELT LIKE WERE REALLY STARTING TO SLIP AWAY FROM THE DEMOCRATS, AND IF EITHER OF THOSE GENTLEMEN WERE TO JOIN THE TICKET WITH KAMALA HARRIS, THEY FEAR, REPUBLICANS FEAR, THAT THOSE STATES WOULD COME RIGHT BACK INTO PLAY.

PARTICULARLY PENNSYLVANIA, WHICH MIGHT BE THE MOST IMPORTANT STATE IN THE ENTIRE ELECTION.

SO, YES, THOSE ARE THE TWO NAMES THAT YOU HEAR ABOUT A LOT FROM REPUBLICANS, AND FROM PEOPLE CLOSE TO TRUMP.

AND I THINK IF THEY'VE GOT THE TRUTH SERUM STUCK INTO THEIR VEINS, THEY WOULD SAY JOSH SHAPIRO IS THE ONE PERSON THEY DON'T WANT TO SEE.

>> TIM, THANK YOU FOR TALKING WITH US.

>> YOU'RE WELCOME.

THANK YOU.