David Axelrod on Chicago’s Progressive Mayor Victory

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CHIEF INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: And now, a noteworthy week for the windy city. President Biden and his party have picked Chicago to host the 2024 Democratic National Convention, and the city also has elected a new mayor, he is Brandon Johnson, a progressive, former teacher who campaigned against racial and economic disparities. And he won by a margin of less than 20,000 votes. He now inherits a city that’s struggling with soaring crime rates. David Axelrod is a former advisor to President Barack Obama, founder of the Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago and host of “The Axe Files” podcast on CNN. He spoke to Michel Martin about what this victory means amid the many challenges ahead.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHEL MARTIN, CONTRIBUTOR: Thanks, Christiane. David Axelrod, thanks so much for talking with us.

DAVID AXELROD, SENIOR FELLOW, UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO INSTITUTE OF POLITICS: Hey. Happy to be with you.

MARTIN: So, we’ve just learned, as we are speaking now, that Chicago will host the 2024 Democratic Convention. I guess, congrats.

AXELROD: No, I think it’s exciting news for the city. I remember the 96th convention made a huge impact on our city and some lasting improvements. So, this is a great — it’s a great opportunity to showcase the city.

MARTIN: I was going to ask, is it congratulations or condolences? Because, obviously, for those of us who get to visit, it’s like — it’s awesome, but I’m just wondering if it’s awesome for the people who live there?

AXELROD: Well, my experience in ’96 was that people were really pleased to showcase the city, especially, you know, we had the 68th convention in Chicago, which lives in infamy in American history for the disorder and chaos that erupted there. So, it was a chance to sort of exorcise that in ’96. And I think people really appreciate it. But it is a challenge for the city as well, and for the new mayor, who will preside over this in his role.

MARTIN: Should we read anything into it? What does the choice of Chicago say about what the Democrats think their message is going into the 2024 election year? Because, obviously, a lot goes into these decisions. So, what does the choice of Chicago say?

AXELROD: Well, I think, first of all, it says that the Midwest is an important battleground. It is you know, Chicago — Illinois abuts Wisconsin, which is perhaps the swingiest of all swing states in some ways. And Michigan is nearby. So, for — and these are two states that a Democrat must have. So, I think it speaks to the political importance of the region. I also think being in the middle of the country is a statement rather than on the coasts. I think Democrats have had a challenge winning over voters in what has become known as flyover country. This is a way of saying, we’re in touch with the entire country.

MARTIN: So, let’s talk about the mayor who — as you said, the new mayor will be presiding over this monumental event next year.

AXELROD: Yes.

MARTIN: As we are speaking, it’s only been about a week, but Progressive Candidate Brandon Johnson. He’s a former social studies teacher. He became an organizer for the Chicago Teachers Union. He won the mayoral election in Chicago, besting Paul Vallas, who is a former CEO of Chicago Public Schools. The polls seem to indicate that Mr. Vallas had the momentum. He seemed to have a lock on the undecided, and Brandon Johnson pulled it out. How do you understand his victory?

AXELROD: Well, first of all, polls can be misleading and these polls were pretty close, even though they gave Vallas an edge. So, it was always going to be a close race because of the way the city is divided. The question for Brandon Johnson was, could he consolidate the African American vote in the city and could he continue to inspire and build on the support that he got in the general election? Because these were the two finalists in the general election among young white progressives, and he was able to do both things. He got about 80 percent of the African American vote as opposed to about 20 percent in the first round when there were seven African American candidates, and he inspired greater turnout among white progressives, particularly in the north side, Lakefront, Wards of the city. And third, he did relatively better than people thought he would among Hispanic voters, breaking almost even with Vallas. And those three elements gave him a winning multiracial coalition.

MARTIN: I was going to say, because black voters are not enough to win in Chicago. I don’t know that people outside of Chicago know this, it is not a majority black city.

AXELROD: In terms of population, the city is really kind of a third, a third, a third. But in terms of voting population, the dominant voters, the white vote. But what really happened here was Brandon Johnson inspired young voters, young white progressive voters who did not embrace Vallas. Vallas ran almost entirely on the issue of increasing policing in the city. He wanted 1,800 more police in Chicago. And that was — that got him pretty far in the race in the city that’s very — that’s deeply concerned about crime. But Johnson had a more nuanced position, which was that the city needed more than policing, that they needed to relieve police of the kinds of social work type interactions that police are often asked to engage and that sometimes lead to unwanted, you know, confrontations, and that the city needed to focus more on the economic status of communities that were forgotten on the south and west sides of Chicago. There are a lot of younger white voters who deeply believed that. Beyond that, Michel, the — you know, one thing you learn in politics in the modern age is that videotape is often not your friend. Paul Vallas did an interview 14 years earlier in which he — or 13 years in which he was thinking about running for office as a Republican in Chicago against a Democratic officeholder, and he said, if I run again, it will be as a Republican. I’ve always been more of a Republican. And he also said that he was personally opposed to abortion. Those things we’re very, very incendiary to these young progressive voters. And you put that together with his closeness to the police union, he became persona non grata to a lot of these young voters who were mobilized behind this young black progressive candidate.

MARTIN: Do you think that there are national implications for this? Because it’s not a secret that Republicans have been hoping to hammer Democrats on the issue of crime.

AXELROD: Yes.

MARTIN: And it’s not like it’s not an issue. I’m just reading from a piece from the beginning of April, shootings and homicides are down from a year ago, but Chicago’s homicide rate remains five times higher than New York City’s, 2.5 times higher than Los Angeles’s. And then, in 2022, crime in Chicago rose in almost every other major category, including robbery, burglary, theft, motor vehicles. Now, look, Chicago is not alone in this.

AXELROD: That was a piece I wrote the day of the election in “The Atlantic.” And listen, crime and public safety is issues number one, two and three in Chicago. And, you know, Brandon Johnson had to make some amends to this as well because in the wake of George Floyd, he, as a member of the County Board, was very outspoken and said, at one point, defund — defunding police is a political goal. What he was referring to was shifting resources to other elements of public safety and of community health.

MARTIN: So, how come his last — his previous statements about defunding the police didn’t drag him down in the same way that Vallas’ statements did?

AXELROD: Well, partly because — his past statements on defunding police didn’t sink him because, in part, he walked them back and made very clear and debate after debate that he wasn’t going to defund the police. That, in his last debate, I think he said he wasn’t going to take a dollar away from police. So, he had to make some accommodations to the public mood on this and make clear, not just to the public, but to the police themselves, that defunding police was not his program. But I do think that another lesson of this is that policing is complicated, and it’s not just a matter of the number of police you have, because, after all, Chicago has more police per capita than any of the major big cities, certainly far more than Los Angeles, more than New York, and yet, it has a deeper problem with violence. So, more police isn’t the only answer. Smart policing, how you deploy police, but also, other things come into play, that was Johnson’s message. Obviously, a winning coalition of voters accepted that message and felt comfortable with what he was saying about public safety. Now, the question is, how does he perform? He has to appoint a new police chief within a short period of time after taking office. He’s going to have to win over the police, the very right-wing head of the police union, said 1,000 police would resign if Brandon Johnson were elected. He needs the police, as the last mayor, Lori Lightfoot, came to understand. You need the police to be fully engaged and willing to work with you to solve the public safety problem. They did not feel that way about her. It cost her. She lost in the first round here. Brendan Johnson has absorbed those lessons. And now, the question is, how does he perform and how does Chicago perform in terms of public safety moving forward? Because he will be — if Chicago fails, undoubtedly, Republicans will try and hold him up and his past statements as emblematic of the Democratic Party. I think he knows that this is one of the challenges, perhaps the major challenge that he faces, certainly in the short run.

MARTIN: Talk a little bit more, if you would, about Lori Lightfoot, the outgoing mayor. She was elected with such promise and such —

AXELROD: Yes.

MARTIN: There was so much excitement around her, an African American woman.

AXELROD: Yes.

MARTIN: Outwardly — you know, openly queer. You know, it just seemed like a big moment. So, what happened there?

AXELROD: Yes. Lori Lightfoot was elected in a landslide in — back in 2019. And there’s a great deal of hope for her. First of all, I think she was a strong and interesting personality. As you point out, the first openly gay mayor of Chicago, but she also was elected kind of as a loner. She was a former prosecutor. Her message in that campaign was she was going to clean up corruption in Chicago. But she came to office with no political relationships. And she had a very hard edge to her. She — she’s someone who is more apt to extend the clenched fist and the open hand, and she ended up alienating a lot of the political partners that she needed in order to move the city forward. And all of that in addition to rising crime rates in Chicago, which were related to the pandemic, but nonetheless, on her account, they conspired against her, and she had a very high disapproval rating by the time the election rolled around. But I will say this, she led the city — nobody can plan on a pandemic, greeting them when they take office. She led the city through a very difficult time. She did an, I think, excellent job on the pandemic. But the public safety issue just overwhelmed her. And in the end of the — at the end of the day, she paid a price for it.

MARTIN: I just want to go back to the piece that you wrote prior to the election. You wrote that Chicago needs a healthy dose of what each man offers but can choose only one knowing that neither has the whole package, you’re talking about Brandon Johnson and Paul Vallas there.

AXELROD: Vallas and — yes.

MARTIN: So, tell me what is missing with Brandon Johnson’s victory.

AXELROD: What’s missing is just experience. Paul Vallas had, you know, 40 years of experience in government. He had run major government agencies in Chicago and elsewhere over those years, and he brought that knowledge and experience to the job, that also was a comfort to, you know, the business community. And one of the other challenges that Johnson is going to have is that he doesn’t really have a relationship with the business community in the city. This is at a time when some major companies have moved their headquarters out of the city. He’s going to want to reverse that. So, in addition to building relationships of trust with the police, he also has to build relationships of trust with the business community without compromising his progressive approach.

MARTIN: So, you have some experience with, you know, young progressive person with not as much experiences with other people think that person should have necessarily, for you, know a big job.

AXELROD: Yes.

MARTIN: I’m talking Barack Obama, of course.

AXELROD: Yes.

MARTIN: And I’m just wondering if there are lessons that you would impart from your experience with, you know, this monumental and transformational political figure that you think Brandon Johnson could learn from.

AXELROD: First of all, Obama had sort natural executive kind of instincts, even though he didn’t have a great deal of executive experience, and one hopes that that Johnson will as well. But part of that was the ability to get good people around him, to get, you know, a variety of opinions and call through those and take the right steps to be open to that. So, that is part of it. But on your point, Obama’s view was always that if you can move the ball forward, if you can get things done that are going to help people, then you probably need to be willing to compromise because 100 percent of nothing is not as good as 60 or 70 or 80 percent of something. And Brandon Johnson comes from a labor background. So, he understands negotiations, and that you do have to compromise when you’re in office. And the trick is, do not compromise those principles that are fundamental to who you are. And you know, some may argue that Obama did. I strongly disagree with that. But certainly, Johnson has to keep that in mind. Be willing to compromise, be willing to listen, be willing to understand what other people’s concerns are, try and act on those and do it within the framework of who you are and what you believe.

MARTIN: Just kind of looping back to where we started our conversation, progressives want to see something different. You know, they will say, look, what’s been tried hasn’t worked. You know, the same things have been tried over and over again, more policing, harsher policing, et cetera, hasn’t worked it. So, try something else. Whereas other people say, we can’t afford that. We can’t risk it. It’s too scary out there. People really feel their quality of life is being seriously compromised.

AXELROD: Yes. The reality is — and I think Democrats need to acknowledge it, both things are true. You need effective policing. There is a need for police in communities. There also is a need to evaluate what we’re asking of police and are there better ways to handle some of the things that we’re asking them to handle, that often can escalate in ways that aren’t necessary. And then, finally, are their root causes that you can attack in Chicago? We have a big problem with street gangs, and a lot of those gangs are young men, you know, in their late teens and early 20s, who have nothing else to do but hang out with gangs, and they make a little money, you know, whether it’s through the drug trade or other ways, and they have a sense of community there. The question is, how do you get those young men out of that life and give them a sense of hope, opportunity that they don’t have today? Violence prevention is a big part of the prescription here. And now you, have a mayor who seems deeply committed to exploring all those avenues. And, you know, I think if he succeeds, he will be an emblem of for Democrats. If he doesn’t, he will be — it will be exploited by Republicans. But you’re right, we tend to weaponize problems too often rather than coming together around solutions. And hopefully, on this one, we can.

MARTIN: David Axelrod, thanks so much for talking with us today.

AXELROD: Great to be with you.