Election Analysis: Why the GOP Is Losing Winnable Races

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CHIEF INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR:  Now, in the United States, Democrats defied pollsters last night, holding their ground in those statewide elections. In Virginia, the party gained full control over the state legislature, while Democrat Gabe Amo made history as Rhode Island’s first black congressman. “The New York Times” national politics reporter Astead Herndon joins Hari Sreenivasan now to discuss what these results could mean for next year’s presidential election.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HARI SREENIVASAN, INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Christiane, thanks. Astead Herndon, thanks so much for joining us. I’m sure it was a late night for you. What were the races that you were watching as the polls closed all over the country last night?

ASTEAD HERNDON, NATIONAL POLITICS REPORTER, THE NEW YORK TIMES AND HOST, “THE RUN-UP,” THE NEW YORK TIMES: Yes. I mean, the principal races was, you know, the Kentucky governor’s race. We had the kind of state legislature and state Senate that were both up in Virginia. Those were called kind of at the end of the night for Democrats. We’re watching Mississippi, but that ended up not going to a runoff and holding with the Republicans. But I think on the top line, you really just have been watching all of the kind of races that show the continued salience of abortion rights, both from Kentucky to Ohio, to — you know, and I think that continues to trim for Democrats, we’ve seen basically since the Dobbs decision has fallen. And so, that’s why I was looking at the night going into. And I think if you look at Virginia, Kentucky and Ohio, there’s a clear message that that is still top of mind for voters across the country.

SREENIVASAN: So, let’s break those apart a little bit. First, let’s talk about Ohio. It was a change to the state constitution.

HERNDON: Yes. It was a change to the state constitution to try to abortion rights. And let’s remember, this is the kind of kind of latest iteration of a fight that’s been playing out there for a while. Republicans tried to raise the standard on the state referendum too, because they were worried about how many people would drive to the polls. They tried to change the date of the election, and you still saw Democrats have a resounding kind of decisive victory there to go in and try and abortion rights in the state law. That’s over the concerns of some Republican state officials who have really campaigned hard against it. I think the margin there, really to me, says that we need to start reframing how we think about this. This isn’t just an issue for women in suburbs as it’s kind of generally talked about is that you’ve seen this kind of create a new type of coalition that when abortion rights are on the ballot that this is a — you know, a wide range of people will come together even in the red state. And so, I think that — you know, Ohio is a clear kind of message. And the reason why, you know, Democrats are trying to really consolidate around a message of protecting freedoms and abortion rights for 2024 and why Republicans really haven’t found an answer to it, because as they continue to kind of stick their head in the sand and try to fear monger around democratic tactics, that’s not working for voters. They see them as extremists who are taking their rights away.

SREENIVASAN: Now, what happened in Virginia? I mean, it wasn’t on the ballot per se, but it still played a factor, you think, in flipping the legislature?

HERNDON: I think it did because I think we should think about Governor Glenn Youngkin’s role in these races. Now, Glenn Youngkin was one in 2021, kind of on a message of a principal conservative, and he tried to use these elections as a kind of litmus test of his conservative agenda because the fullness of the state legislature was up, both the state Senate and the State House. Democrats controlled one house, but we’re looking to seek both. And Youngkin had basically said, if you give me two houses of a Republican legislature, I will give you a conservative agenda that includes kind of finding a moderate or compromised position on abortion that will limit it to somewhat — to something like 15 weeks. that was what he was kind of going around the state saying and specifically pitching to national media as maybe an entry point for him to get into the Republican presidential race, but that didn’t come to fruition. You saw Democrats really do well, and they took control of both houses of the state legislature, functionally, you know, kind of grinding Youngkin’s proposed agenda to a halt. And I think that that is seen as a real blow to his kind of, like, parents rights, abortion protections that he was trying to put into place.

And I would say another kind of result that, you know, stuck out in Virginia is that Loudoun County School Board also went to liberals. That was a place where there had been so many fights about kind of culture wars and LGBTQ rights in schools and what folks were teaching the so-called woke messages that were coming from education. And this has not really motivated Republicans to the degree that they had hoped once again. And so, I think, you know, for all the national narrative about Joe Biden’s problems, we actually saw a Democratic Party, particularly in Virginia, that was showing real signs of hell.

SREENIVASAN: So, while we have one governor in Virginia whose presidential prospects might have dimmed a little after last night, Andy Beshear, in Kentucky, seemed to kind of improve his stature.

HERNDON: I mean, he improved his stature, not only nationally, but we — when we think back to when he ran four years ago, he saw even bigger margins this time around that really speaks to someone who used the power of incumbency to his advantage and has a real name brand of the state. Now, remember the Beshear is a unique kind of Kentucky figure, has a long- standing family name and has a history of being a kind of approachable Democrat in a red state, but that should not, you know, overshadow what he really did in this race. He embraced the idea of protecting abortion rights. He cast his opponent, Daniel Cameron, as kind of an extremist on this issue. And you also saw him really — you know, as a state that has experienced the recent mass shooting, you know, he was the face of the kind of consolation and, you know, for citizens, and that seems to have really done him. We saw a lot of counties that voted for Donald Trump as recently as 2020 vote for Andy Beshear last night. And so, that really says that there was some crossover appeal for this individual candidate, but I do think it’s going to be somewhat of a model if we look about how Democrats can run broadly come 2024, is if you try to make it not about the kind of national race, but localize specifically the issues of abortion and protecting democracy, that’s going to be the playbook. I was talking to a state party chair a couple of weeks ago, and he told me that, you know, no matter who’s at the top of the ticket, they think they have to communicate the stakes of those issues to their voters, because what we have seen since 2020 is that Democrats will come out when that is communicated. That’s true in the midterms, that’s true in these off-year elections, and they’re hoping that’s going to be true next year.

SREENIVASAN: There was a red state governor, Tate Reeves, who held on to his seat in Mississippi. He was challenged by a cousin of Elvis Presley?

HERNDON: Yes. Yes. There was a there was an interesting race in Mississippi partially because Tate Reeves, the incumbent governor, has been experiencing a spate of scandal, which caused some to really think that the Democratic challenger, Brandon Presley, could do some real — could make some real inroads there. But Mississippi is a famously tough state for Democrats to win. It is at the highest proportion of nonwhite voters in the country. It’s a very black state. So, you can actually get to have 45, 46 percentage points if a Democrat were to mobilize all those black voters like we kind of saw last night. The difficulty of Mississippi is getting past that threshold to more than 50 percent. And it’s a state that just implemented a runoff law. So, actually, last night, we were looking to see if Reeves were going to be able to hold past 50 percent so we can avoid the runoff. And he did do so.

SREENIVASAN: What’s the message right now that Republicans are taking if they’re facing these losses? that are moved by, you know, voters who care a lot about abortion or who care less about, you know, what it is and what is not woke and being taught in schools?

HERNDON: Yes. I think for Republicans. I mean, there has to be a real soul search about specifically their message on abortion rights. I mean, they have been led by an evangelical wing of the party that is clearly out of touch with the majority of Americans. And so, if the lesson for conservatives was that, you know, the end — the Dobbs decision was going to bring this back to the states was going to be a kind of democratic repositioning of this issue, they need to take the lessons of democracy and make clear that, you know, the majority of Americans, if they are put in front of them, are going to act to protect abortion rights, what does that do for their message next year is the principal question I think Republicans have to ask themselves. The other kind of question here is just like the general Trump triangulation. They have not seen a kind of — his kind of energy translate to other candidates. And so, if there is an enthusiasm problem, if there is a split among the Republican base, then that means that, you know, they’re not — they’re less able to take advantage of any democratic shortcomings. And so, you know, when I was at the Republican National Convention earlier this year, the first and foremost thing they said they need heading into 2024 is unity around the party. Now, in the primary, there has been basically a deference to Donald Trump. But I don’t think that from top to bottom, you have a united party around that figure. And because you still have so many people who are saying that he has too much baggage and others. And so, if you’re Republicans, there’s not only a message problem when it comes to abortion, there is a unity problem when it comes to whether the base of this party wants and what it’s delivering in terms of candidates, because it is not delivering wins. These are winnable races for Republicans last night and in 2022 and they are losing them, and that’s a clear message from voters across the country.

SREENIVASAN: Last year when we spoke, you described the “stench” that Donald Trump has left on the Republican Party and the Republican brand. But here we are now, four indictments, 90 plus criminal charges later, and he is still outperforming all the other Republican candidates and he doesn’t even have to be on the debate stage.

HERNDON: Yes, yes. It’s stunning, really. And I think that this is a kind of difference in assumptions for a lot of people. You know, when I think about post midterms, there was a lot of assumed political fallout that folks thought would happen from the indictments. Of course, voters would find him unqualified for the office if that were to happen. Of course, folks would have to kind of recognize the legal system and say that that makes him — you know, disqualifies him for presidency, and that hasn’t really happened. On the Republican side, you’ve seen people really consolidate around him under the vision of him being persecuted. The latest CNN polling has him at 61 percent nationally among the — in the Republican primary. That means that this whole year, you know, these other candidates haven’t really made a dent in his support and he has consolidated and grown that over the summer. So, I think that’s one piece of it. But I do think there is an impact to the indictments when we think broadly and look ahead to a general election. This is a country that does not want a rematch of 2020, that thinks that Joe Biden is simply too old, and thinks that Donald Trump has simply too much baggage. And so, that is the big impact of them being — us being big — being brought back to this point. It complicates the question of just who’s going to win, because I think we are going to see an electorate that is a near open revolt about its options come next year. So, may that — will that mean there’s more interest in a third-party candidate? Will that mean more people stay home? Will that mean people skip the top line and vote down ballot? Will that mean young people stay out? I mean, I don’t know kind of where that kind of — where that impact falls, but I do think it completely upends the type of calculations we’re seeing. In a typical year, I think we would take these off-year elections as a sign for the next year. But with those two candidates at the top of the ballot, I think it scrambles everything.

SREENIVASAN: Is there a significant enough conversation in the Democratic Party right now to say and to understand that if Donald Trump is not the candidate, that perhaps lots of other Republicans stand a better chance at beating Joe Biden, regardless of what he’s been able to do with the economy, what he’s able to manage in foreign policy, and so on?

HERNDON: I think that’s a great question. I — you know, I recently — last week — you know, for this week’s episode of “The Run-Up,” our podcast, we went and talked to the Biden campaign in Wilmington, Delaware, to basically ask them this question you’re asking me, and what they say is they know that they have real work to do, that they’re investing money early to win over black and brown communities, that they’re treating them as persuadable voters, not base voters, when they recognize they have to convince them to come out, rather than just assume they will come out. But I guess that’s still coming up against the fundamental flaw here, which is that, you know, a candidate that was seen as an emergency option is asking for a renewal of his contract. And I think that for a lot of these people it’s not really about, you know, whether Joe Biden was a good president or not, it’s about whether they want him to be the president going forward. And so, I think Democrats might find themselves coming back around to trying to make that emergency moral argument that you have to come out because the prospect of Donald Trump winning is so scary. And I think that will motivate some people, but I just wonder if that’s harder to do a second time around, particularly when the electorate’s views of Donald Trump have become more nihilistic and they’re — and have just — they have seen him as kind of less of an emergency threat. Maybe that changes come next year after these criminal trials and things like that. But as of now, the act of calling Donald Trump distasteful has not worked. The electorate does not see him as uniquely more extreme than Joe Biden. And that’s a problem for Joe Biden.

SREENIVASAN: There’s another presidential debate that’s happening tonight, and I’m wondering how much you think now foreign policy plays into how these candidates are auditioning and the inverse what has happened to Joe Biden’s support because of the October 7th attacks?

HERNDON: Yes. I mean, that’s a great question and I think we have to separate it by parties. When we think about Republicans, the sheer fact is that the — you know, the changes in the increasing global conflict does not really up ended that race at all. There’s pretty universal agreement when you get to Republicans about the need to kind of unconditionally support Israel. You got kind of Donald Trump saying, you know, praising Hezbollah smarts and kind of saying Trump — ridiculous, like rhetorical kind of things. He said he’s been previously accused of antisemitism, that hasn’t really hurt him in this specific issue. Republicans are going to be in universal agreement tonight about the need to support Israel and blaming the conflict on Joe Biden’s supposed weak leadership. Where there is not agreement for them is on the question of increased aid to Ukraine, which much more of that interventionist to noninterventionist split comes up when you talk about supporting them on that front. Among Democrats, though, it’s unquestionably true that the conflict in Israel and Gaza has changed kind of some folk’s perception of Joe Biden. I’ve been seeing reporting coming out of Michigan about the large Arab community there. I’ve seen reporting about American Jewish communities kind of changing based about how they feel the Democratic Party is being deferential to pro-Palestinian protesters. And then, I think we should also say the biggest group where we have seen this take root is young folks who have been increasingly calling — leading the calls for a ceasefire, pressuring the Democratic Party to embrace that type of language. And we have seen only some do that. And really the top of the party, Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, others really stayed clear from that. And I think that’s going to be the increasing question for this is, does the United States support for Israel put it further and further away from where young people are on this issue? And does that drive an increasing distance between the president who needed those people to come out in 2020?

SREENIVASAN: You know, you got another season of your podcast up, and of course, there’s what people in the press and sort of people who watch politics think everyone cares about. And here you are in rural Washington State. So, what do the voters that you’ve been speaking with, what does resonate with them?

HERNDON: Yes. It’s a lot of the issues we’ve been talking about. One thing I really loved about what we did in our first episode of “The Run-Up,” which will actually be every week through the election next year, is that we actually went back to people and they matched up a lot of our reporting. We were in Washington State, a kind of random place to go because it’s the last and longest standing bellwether county in America. This is the only county that’s actually gotten the presidential race correct every cycle since 1980. And so, we were doing a kind of gimmick. We stayed in the diner and asked the folks who lived in this town, OK, so how’s this going to go? You tell us. And so, one of the things we kind of found from that exploration, is, you know, to your point, a real distaste for Trump, not only among kind of obviously Democrats, but among those independents and Republicans. I talked to people who voted for him in 2016 who had soured and would not vote for Republicans again. Talked to someone who wrote in Daffy Duck in 2020, but refuses to back Donald Trump in 2024 and he has kind of been upset with the party for aiding and embedding his candidacies rise. And so, even though we had that kind of group of Trump supporters, it seems like a community that is trending further away from where the Republican Party is, like a lot of swing voters and independents are right now. And so, that was kind of overall kind of thing we took from it was that there is a sense of anxiety and dread about next year’s election that threatens to really up end this from the top down. And if people feel kind of unsatisfied with these two options and candidates, it is really going to affect how they view their own sense of power and the ability to make change in the political system. And so, that really came up and so on — in sort of what we were doing in Washington. It wasn’t just who they thought was going to win, which, for the record, was Joe Biden, but also the kind of mood that people were feeling about next year’s election, and that’s what really stuck with me is that if we get this type of rematch that nobody seems to want, what is the downstream effects of that?

SREENIVASAN: host of “The Run-Up” podcast and “New York Times” national politics reporters, Astead Herndon, thanks so much for joining us.

HERNDON: Thank you. I really appreciate it.