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LET ME ASK YOU AS A DIPLOMAT, AS A STATES PERSON FROM, I GUESS, TRADITIONAL CONSERVATIVE AND REAGAN VALUES, WHAT DID YOU MAKE OF THAT PUBLIC BUSTUP IN THE WHITE HOUSE ON FRIDAY?
>> I THOUGHT IT WAS ABSOLUTELY DREADFUL.
I THOUGHT THAT BOTH ZELENSKYY AND TRUMP BEHAVED VERY BADLY.
THEY WERE SHOUTING AT EACH OTHER, NOT LETTING THE OTHER SPEAK.
THAT WAS APPALLING IN FRONT OF ALL OF THE WORLD'S CAMERAS.
IF THAT'S WHAT TRUMP INTENDS, THEN HE HAD VERY POOR JUDGMENT.
>> DO YOU THINK, YOU KNOW, THERE IS OBVIOUSLY A LOAD OF PEOPLE, YOURSELF SEEM TO BE SAYING IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN AN AMBUSH.
WE CERTAINLY HAVE HEARD FROM MANY, MANY PEOPLE.
THE WHITE HOUSE DENIES IT, BUT THE NEW LEADER OF THE GERMAN ELECTIONS SAY IT LOOKED VERY MUCH LIKE A MANUFACTURED ESCALATION.
>> I DON'T KNOW WHETHER IT WAS OR NOT, AND TO BE PERFECTLY HONEST I THINK AT THIS STAGE IS NO LONGER RELEVANT WHETHER IT WAS OR NOT.
IT IS THE CONSEQUENCES THAT FLOWED FROM THAT.
I THINK THE FIRST POINT I WOULD LIKE TO MAY, IF I MAY, IS THAT YES, THAT EVENING, THAT CONFRONTATION WAS A DISASTER FOR ZELENSKYY, BUT IT IS ALSO IN MANY WAYS A DISASTER OR POTENTIAL DISASTER FOR TRUMP.
HIS GREAT AMBITION AT THE BEGINNING OF HIS PRESIDENCY IS TO NEGOTIATE WITH PUTIN A CEASE-FIRE.
NOW, EVEN IF THAT NEGOTIATION SEEMED TO BE SUCCESSFUL, IT CANNOT BE IMPLEMENTED UNLESS ZELENSKYY AGREES BECAUSE ZELENSKYY CAN JUST CONTINUE FIGHTING.
HE CANNOT BE STOPPED EXCEPT BY A CONTINUATION OF THE WAR.
SO THERE'S JUST NOTHING RATIONAL IN WHAT TRUMP IS DOING UNLESS IT WAS A SHORT-TERM TACTIC.
NOW, I WAS INTERESTED AT THE END OF THAT GHASTLY EVENING, TRUMP SAID THAT ZELENSKYY COULD RETURN TO THE OVAL OFFICE, BUT ONLY IF HE IS COMMITTED TO PEACE.
WELL, THAT'S ACTUALLY A VERY LOW FORMULA, LOW BARRIER TO HAVE TO GET OVER.
ANYONE CAN SAY THEY'RE COMMITTED TO PEACE AND MEAN IT.
IT IS WHAT FLOWS FROM THAT THAT IS MORE RELEVANT.
>> LET ME ASK YOU.
LET'S DIG INTO THIS BECAUSE TRUMP SAID HE BELIEVES PUTIN REALLY WANTS PEACE.
TRUMP SAYS HE WANTS PEACE, WHICH I HAVE NO DOUBT ABOUT, AND THEY'RE NOW BLAMING ZELENSKYY FOR, QUOTE, NOT WANTING PEACE.
WELL, ZELENSKYY SAYS, OF COURSE WE WANT PEACE BUT WE NEED BACK STOPS, WE NEED DETERRENTS BECAUSE WE'VE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE.
PUTIN SEEMS TO, AT LEAST IN THE PUBLIC UTTERANCES UNTIL NOW, HAVE MAXIMALIST GOALS WHICH INVOLVE THE ESSENTIAL SURRENDER OF UKRAINE.
WHERE DO YOU SEE THE POSSIBILITY, IF EVER, OF THESE TWO COMING TO SOME KIND OF ABILITY TO SIGN A REAL PEACE?
>> WELL, FIRST OF ALL WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND WHAT THE CONFLICT IS ABOUT IN RELATION TO WHERE WE ARE AT THIS PRECISE MOMENT.
FIRST OF ALL, IF YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE A CEASE-FIRE WITHOUT RESOLVING THE LONG-TERM ISSUES THAT DIVIDE TWO COUNTRIES, THE ONLY CREDIBLE AND HONORABLE WAY IN WHICH YOU CAN HAVE A CEASE-FIRE IS IF THERE ARE GENUINE COMPROMISES ON BOTH SIDES.
THE WHOLE WORLD KNOWS THE COMPROMISES WHICH ZELENSKYY WILL HAVE TO MAKE AND WHICH HE HAS BROADLY SPEAKING HIMSELF ACKNOWLEDGED, THAT UKRAINE WILL NOT BE PART OF NATO, AND THAT AT LEAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE THE RUSSIANS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE TERRITORY OR MOST OF THE TERRITORY THEY CURRENTLY OCCUPY.
BUT WHAT ARE THE COMPROMISES THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS GOING TO DEMAND FROM MR. PUTIN?
THERE ARE NONE YET KNOWN, AND MR. TRUMP HAS DECLINED TO SAY.
SO THAT IS ONE ISSUE THAT HAS TO BE ADDRESSED.
THE SECOND ISSUE, AND IT IS A VERY IMPORTANT ONE, IS TO UNDERSTAND THE IMPORTANCE OF WHAT ARE CALLED THE SECURITY GUARANTEES.
WE'VE ALREADY HAD TWO INVASIONS OF UKRAINE, ONE WHEN THEY ANNEXED CRIMEA AND THE NBAS AND THE SECOND WHEN THIS WAR BECAME.
IN BOTH OCCASIONS PUTIN WAS IGNORING PROMISES HE HAD GIVEN NEVER TO OBTAIN UKRAINE.
HE DID IT WITH THE BUDAPEST MEMORANDUM SOME YEARS AGO AND THEN WITH THE SO-CALLED MINSK ACCORDS.
HE BROKE HIS PROMISES.
IT IS NOT UNREASONABLE FOR ZELENSKYY TO SAY, HOW WOULD THE UNITED STATES REACT IF HAVING GOTTEN A CEASE-FIRE, PUTIN IN TWO YEARS TIME, THREE YEARS TIME INVADES UKRAINE AGAIN, WHAT WILL AMERICA DO?
WE KNOW WHAT EUROPE WOULD WANT TO DO.
WHAT WOULD AMERICA DO?
THAT IS WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS REFUSED TO RESPOND TO.
THAT'S WHAT PUTS HIM IN A VERY, VERY WEAK POSITION.
About This Episode EXPAND
Former UK Foreign Secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind reacts to the Oval Office clash between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. Alexander Stubb, the President of Finland, discusses the role Europe can play in the conflict now. Ukrainian journalist Nataliya Gumenyuk offers the Ukrainian reaction to last weeks White House argument.
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