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CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR: Hello, everyone. And welcome to Amanpour & Company. Here’s what’s coming up.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT: We want to create this jet coalition.
RISHI SUNAK, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: We’re training Ukrainian citizens to become absolutely combat ready, aircraft pilots.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
AMANPOUR: The U.K. pledges long-range attack drones and fighter pilot training for Ukraine as President Zelenskyy drums up European support for
his counteroffensive.
Meantime, as Brazil accuses Europe and the United States of fueling the fight in Ukraine, I asked Foreign Minister, Mauro Vieira, if his
president’s plan to play peacemaker holds up.
Also ahead, democracy on the ballot as Turkey heads into its first presidential runoff. Why the outcome of this election matters to the wider
world.
Then —
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SAADIA ZAHIDI, MANAGING DIRECTOR, WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM: Overall, will be finding that about a quarter of all jobs will be affected in some form or
another.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
AMANPOUR: As technology and climate upend the global economy, Hari Sreenivasan explores the future of jobs with the managing director of the
World Economic Forum, Saadia Zahidi.
Welcome to the program, everyone. I’m Christiane Amanpour in New York.
Today, we look at global developments that could impact the outcome of Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and shape alliances from Europe to
the Americas. We begin with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s lightning tour of western capitals. Over the weekend, he met first with Chancellor Olaf
Scholz, who promised Germany’s biggest military support package so far. Almost $3 dollars-worth of weapons. Then, to France and President Emmanuel
Macron, who announced plans to send dozens of light tanks and armored vehicles in the weeks ahead.
Today, President Zelenskyy landed in England, meeting Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Britain is already ahead of the curve, arming Kyiv with long-range
cruise missiles. Zelenskyy’s tour comes at a critical time as countries like Brazil and Turkey, as well as China, look to assert themselves on the
diplomatic scene. We’ll have more on that in a moment, but first, Correspondent Matthew Chance is in London.
Matthew, how come the Brits are so way ahead of the rest of, I guess, NATO in what they’re giving Zelenskyy and what they’re pledging?
MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I guess it’s politically expedient for Rishi Sunak and his predecessors to show
themselves to be, you know, at the forefront of leading the defense or helping Ukraine defend itself. And they’re certainly doing that. They
provide these Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which is the longest-range weapon that Ukraine now has in its arsenal and could be a game changing
munition on the battlefield.
Today, there was a warm embrace between Rishi Sunak, the British prime minister, Vladimir Zelenskyy of Ukraine, as well. As yet more weapons were
pledged, we’re talking about long-distance attack drones, air defense missiles, training for Ukrainian pilots as well. Because one of the things
that President Zelenskyy wants, not just from Britain but from other European powers and the United States as well, are you know, fighter jets
so they can really strike hard at Russian occupied areas of his country. Take a listen to what the two leaders have to say on that issue earlier
today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT: Today, we spoke about the jets, very important topic for us. Of course, we can’t control the sky, you know
it. So, I think, you know, everything deeply because we’re real partners. Rishi knows all the details what went on on our battlefield. Thank you very
much. And we want to create this jet coalition.
RISHI SUNAK, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: One thing we will be doing, starting actually relatively soon, is training of Ukrainian pilots, and that’s
something that we’ve discussed today. We’re ready to implement those plans in relatively short order, which will mean that we’re training Ukrainian
citizens to become absolutely combat ready, aircraft pilots.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHANCE: So, it’s combat ready, aircraft parlance, but the British prime minister stopping short of actually pledging aircraft. And in fact, they
didn’t get that. The Ukrainians haven’t got that from any European power so far even though, as you mentioned, they’ve had very generous military
donations from the Germans, who have announced a $3 billion military aid package, support from France in the form of armored vehicles, Italian
support as well. But Ukrainian officials tell me tonight, they’re confident they’re going to get the planes, the tanks, and the long-distance weapons
they need to win this war.
AMANPOUR: Indeed, I remember when they were calling for that tank coalition and in the end, they got it.
CHANCE: Yes.
AMANPOUR: Thank you, Matthew, as we await that counteroffensive.
Now, as President Zelenskyy wraps up — racks up promises of western support, Brazil is taking a different tact. President Lula da Silva refuses
to send arms to Ukraine and claims that weapons, like those promised in Europe this week, prolong the fighting. Now, Mauro Vieira is Brazil’s
foreign minister, and I asked him about his president’s views, which are troubling NATO allies.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
AMANPOUR: Foreign Minister, welcome to the program.
MAURO VIEIRA, BRAZILIAN FOREIGN MINISTER: Thank you very much for inviting me.
AMANPOUR: Can I ask you, there is a huge show these last few days of European support for President Zelenskyy, including a lot of new military
support. Your President, Lula, recently said that the E.U., the U.S., NATO, essentially, should stop supplying weapons to Ukraine, and thus end the war
or don’t prolong it. Is that your position, still?
VIEIRA: Well, the position of President Lula and the position of Brazil is very clear. We have voted in favor of the resolution that U.N. — that
condemns the invasion. What President Lula has repeatedly said is that it’s time to stop speaking about war and discussing peace. He has condemned the
war at the beginning, and now he asks for the beginning of a negotiation of peace.
AMANPOUR: Foreign Minister, that means that you believe then that you would disagree, you would oppose what the Europeans are doing and promising right
now this weekend.
VIEIRA: No, we do not disappear — we do not disapprove anything. We just insist that it’s necessary to sit down and talk. We are ready to join other
countries that have contact with both sides and promote some kind of discussion that would leave — would lead to a ceasefire, would lead to
talks about peace and relieving the suffering of the populations.
AMANPOUR: Can I play for you a little bit of the interview that I was able to do with President Lula when he came earlier this year to Washington for
a White House visit with President Biden? I asked him specifically about this idea of diplomacy. This is what he told me.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LUIZ INACIO LULA DA SILVA, BRAZILIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): Well, I am highly committed with democracy in any part of the planet Earth. What
I believe is that in the case of Ukraine and Russia, it is necessary to have someone talking about peace. It’s necessary that we should build up
interlocutors to talk with the different parties that are in confrontation, that’s my thesis.
We need to find interlocutors that could sit with President Putin and show it to him the mistake that he made to invade the territory integrity of the
Ukrainian territory. And we have to show to Ukraine that we have to talk more so that we can avoid this war. We have to stop the war.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
AMANPOUR: So, Foreign Minister, so far, it doesn’t appear publicly anyway, that there has been any success with that route? What do you have to show
for this idea of trying to get negotiations underway?
VIEIRA: Well, but diplomacy is like that. It takes time. You have to sit down and negotiate and talk. If other leaders and other heads of state are
saying the same at joining Brazil and other countries. So, it will take time. But when the time is ready, when the time is ripe, I think I’m —
this would be a very important contribution to the situation and the solution of the situation.
AMANPOUR: Mr. Foreign Minister, I think everybody would like to see the war end, but of course, the question is on what terms? So, again, I need to ask
you, because all the NATO allies are trying to figure out Brazil’s very powerful coalition of BRICS countries and what you intend to do.
So, as we know, you know, Brazil hosted Sergey Lavrov, a chief adviser went to Moscow. The Ukrainians got very upset. Then one of President Lula’s
chief advisors also went to Kyiv. The idea, though, is that they believe you are taking Russia’s rationale for this war and putting the onus on
Ukraine.
VIEIRA: No, this is not the right interpretation. We have contended, as I said, at the beginning the invasion of the Russian territory and we started
immediately speaking about peace. President Lula has said that he only hears reference to weapons and sending weapons.
But as to our position, it’s very clear, we have contact with both sides. President Lula has spoken with the president of the Russian Federation and
Ukraine. I have spoken and received, here in Brazil, the foreign minister of Russia, Lavrov. I met and we spoke on the phone with the foreign
minister from Ukraine, Foreign Minister Kuleba. And President Lula sent his special adviser for foreign affairs to meet both the president of Russia
and the foreign minister and the president of Ukraine and his foreign minister.
So, we are not siding one country against the other or the other way around. We are talking and giving our contribution in trying to convince
those two countries involved, with which we have direct communications. The means to sit down and negotiate, that’s what we are driving at.
AMANPOUR: OK. So, I just want to put up this picture, it’s from the Ukrainian deputy foreign affairs minister, when Mr. Celso Amorim went and
met him. He says — the Ukrainian, we are slowly changing the mood between Ukraine and Brazil. Do you see any area for negotiations and do you believe
the groundwork right now is fertile for a negotiation that is fair?
VIEIRA: Well, as I mentioned before, we voted this U.N. resolution that condemned the invasion. And following a period of negotiation, we proposed
to insert a paragraph on cessation of hostilities. I think this is an important contribution. And this is — the reference to cessation of
hostility is a base to begin to talk.
And of course, we are ready to continue and discuss it, but you know, the diplomatic times are longer than chronological times. It takes time and so
many other negotiations on wars during last century, they took long months. So, I think these are the base for — or the starting point for
negotiations.
AMANPOUR: OK. I need to ask you also then about what appears to be, you know, a bit of hypocrisy here. You know, you don’t want to send weapons to
Ukraine no matter how much they ask. But “The New York Times” reports, and your country is a big producer of warplanes. Your country has proved
willing to sell to other warring nations. Since the beginning of the Yemeni war in 2014, Brazil has supplied Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
with more than 21,000 tons of arms and ammunition worth, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars, including internationally condemned cluster
ammunitions. That’s according to trade data.
So, why do you say yes to Saudi Arabia for a war in Yemen, and no to Ukraine, which is trying to defend itself from a war of aggression that you
have already condemned?
VIEIRA: Well, first of all, this is export by private companies. It’s not the state sending arms, this is the first point. And secondly, we are not
the only ones to sell to — to sell weapons to other countries. We are not that big exporter and producers. But it’s done by private companies.
AMANPOUR: It appears that the United States is getting a little bit irritated with Brazil for its position on Ukraine. Does that concern you?
VIEIRA: We never received any special message. President Lula spoke and met President Biden. I have been in touch with foreign secretary of state of
the United States, Antony Blinken, and we never received any concern. On the contrary, we discussed these issues very frequently and in detail so
that we can learn more about each other’s position.
AMANPOUR: I want to ask you to address criticism that was leveled by the economist. Essentially, you know, much of the democratic world welcomed
President Lula’s re-election on all sorts of issues. On climate, on — you know, on rejoining the community of democratic nations after the experience
with his predecessor. And yet, they say, in the economist, that the world has changed, it’s a much more polarized world. It’s very different than the
one President Lula left and whether it’s on Ukraine, whether it’s on Taiwan.
They say that it appears that President Lula’s foreign policy is a bit naive. How would you comment on that, especially, as you say, that China
should have a big role in helping defuse the Ukraine situation? Most believe China is on Russia’s side.
VIEIRA: Well, I don’t think that the remark that our foreign policy or that the president’s position is naive. He has met with so many heads of states.
Up to now, he has met 22 different heads of states. He is going this week to Japan, to Hiroshima, for the G7 Summit to which he was invited to the
outreach segment by Japan. That will bring this total number close to 30 or 26, 28 heads of states that he has been meeting.
I don’t believe they are naive. And since they wanted to meet with President Lula and we have had very, very good and deep discussions, I
think that this only helps to understand better the world and to understand better our positions. And especially, to enhance our relations, bilateral
relations with all those countries.
AMANPOUR: Can I ask you domestic question? Because the climate is such a massive crisis, obviously, and your country play such a huge role. Are you
satisfied with the pace of trying to stop deforestation? There’s — “Reuters” are saying that understaffed agencies face a bureaucratic battle
to hire staff. A violent battle against criminals emboldened by Bolsonaro. How fast, do you think, you are able to achieve your goal of stopping, for
instance, illegal deforestation?
VIEIRA: Well, the president is totally engaged in his environmental policy, and also, sustainable development policy. This is a part of his domestic
policy, of his program of government, and also of the foreign policy. He is working very hard. And I think that in four months and a half since he took
office, a lot was done.
He has — he’s doing restructuration of all defiscalisation (ph) bodies of the state that were destroyed during the last government. They — he’s, of
course, summoning back so many of the good people and the good officials that we had, especially the technicians. And he will make the — rebuild
those bodies of the state under the ministry of environment.
The policy, the environmental policy, changed completely. President Lula went as president-elect, invited to COP27 in Egypt, in Sharm el-Sheikh. And
he delivered voluntarily, at this location, a very important speech in which he assumed very, very important commitments and engagements with
relation to the goals of his environmental policy. I think he can do and he is doing a very good job in this area.
AMANPOUR: Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira, thank you very much for joining us.
VIEIRA: Thank you very much for inviting me for this conversation. Thank you very much.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
AMANPOUR: Now, elections in Turkey could also have an impact on western support for Ukraine. Though Turkey is part of NATO, it’s diplomatic and
economic ties to Russia under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have caused tension within the alliance. Erdogan, like his Brazilian counterpart, calls
for the immediate cessation of the Ukraine war.
Now, though, Erdogan is in the political fight of his life. In a fiercely contested election, he faces criticism over Turkey’s troubled economy and
accusations of negligence following the deadly earthquake in February. After Sunday’s vote, though, Erdogan holds a slight edge over Kemal
Kilicdaroglu, he’s the opposition candidate.
Correspondent Jomana Karadsheh is in Istanbul. So, Jomana, what were the final first round results, and when is the runoff?
JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Christiane, going into this election, there was this expectation that it was going to be a
very, very tight race. And that President Erdogan was facing, as you mentioned, the toughest election he has faced and more than 20 years. But
he defied expectations coming out with just over 49 percent of the vote.
Neither President Erdogan nor the opposition leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, got the 50 plus one percent threshold that is required to win the
presidency. So, this is headed towards that runoff, officially announced today, for May the 28th.
This is not victory for Erdogan. He is used to victories, Christiane, as you know very well. But this, certainly, is a win for the president despite
all the issues that people blame him for in this country, whether it is the state of the economy, which every person you speak to in this country is
struggling to deal with, or the response that he got a lot of criticism for when it comes to the devastating earthquake back in February, and the
governments lack of preparedness as many have criticize them before. You still look at it and he still managed to get nearly 50 percent of the vote.
And for the opposition, Christiane, this was a serious blow. They really were hoping that this was going to be different. They believed that coming
together, this united front of these diverse opposition parties was — and the promise of change, the promise of bringing real democracy back to
Turkey that this was going to be enough to unseat President Erdogan, but clearly it hasn’t. Take a listen to what the leader of the opposition,
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, said today
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KEMAL KILICDAROGLU, TURKISH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE (through translator): I am here. I am here. You are here, too. I will fight until the end. I swear.
And I know I will fight until the end. I am here.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KARADSHEH: Both sides are really determined to take this fight to the second round. And, Christiane, if you look at the results, it really is a
reflection of the state of this country, the state of polarization in this deeply divided country.
AMANPOUR: The opposition leader really did sound very determined there. What are International Observers saying about how the election is being
run. I mean, is there any talk of the fact that, of course, the AKP Party, Erdogan’s party, has the majority of the state institutions at his
disposal?
KARADSHEH: And that has been the issue that many Turks would tell you. That has been the issue campaigning, that this is not a level playing field when
it comes to the opposition versus President Erdogan and his ruling party. And we are hearing this from the International Observers, from the OSCE,
and others releasing a statement today saying that the actual vote itself, the process was managed well. There was really high turnout, nearly 90
percent, according to the Turkish government, the Turkish electoral boards figures that came out. And people were really presented with two genuine
political alternatives.
It is the lead up to these elections, as you mentioned, that is the issue. It is the campaigning here that is not fair, according to observers. You
have so many politicians who are behind bars. You have got political parties that have been criminalized. You got journalist behind bars. So, it
is the issue of campaigning, they say, that is not fair. They say that these campaigning conditions are not fair. They don’t exist. They give the
president and his party really an unjustified position here when it comes to the (INAUDIBLE).
But as we have heard from so many people in this country, they say, Turkish democracy is still alive at the ballot box. And this is the only way people
feel they can have their voices heard in this country and have their say in the direction their country takes. And this is why, you saw this really
high turnout yesterday, and we will see what happens on May the 28th when they return back to the polls, Christiane.
AMANPOUR: Indeed, that’s going to be really interesting, because it is the first ever runoff, right? They only introduced them a few years ago, and
this is the first time. So, Jomana Karadsheh, we will be looking out. And let’s move on to how this election will impact Turkey’s global relations,
whatever the outcome.
(INAUDIBLE) is an expert on Turkish politics at the Brookings Institute, and she is joining me now from Istanbul. Welcome to the program. Can I
start by asking you to follow up from what our correspondent was talking about? And that is, despite for the first time, having this rather
organized coalition to oppose President Erdogan and to try to really, you know, for the first time, make some inroads into his 20-year rule. So far,
they haven’t managed. Do you think that will change in the runoff?
ASLI AYDINTASBAS, VISITING FELLOW, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Well, I think the opposition goes into a runoff with a disadvantage. President Erdogan has
four and a half percent lead.
And there’s a third party candidate who might strike a deal with President Erdogan, and in any case, there’s no guarantee that his voters will follow
the opposition candidate. There are — there is a huge disappointment on the opposition camp today.
There is good news and bad news. For them, the good news is that in big cities, nearly all big cities, people have voted for change. So, the
opposition candidate has done better. But in Sunni conservative heartland, President Erdogan has consolidated. Not just in the countryside, but also
in, sort of, the more conservative areas of the big cities, even in the earthquake zone. He seems to have consolidated by way of triggering,
perhaps, a Sunni reflex because the opposition candidate had a minority background, and that seems to have served as a glass ceiling.
Pollsters were wrong. Many urban — many of the younger kids that I’ve been talking to in Istanbul over the past few days turned out to be wrong, and
we’re hugely disappointed. President Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, their votes are down to where it was in 2002. So, they’re not — the
party is not doing that well. But he managed to get very close to the threshold. And I think it would be difficult to imagine him not getting
there in the second round. Of course, elections are unpredictable but, you know, he starts off with an advantage.
AMANPOUR: He does. And I think, as you mentioned, the parliamentary vote went very heavily in favor of his party. Now, we know, from the outside
anyway, what an Erdogan presidency looks like, what an Erdogan prime ministership looks like. What would the oppositions’ position and their,
you know, their platform, what would that have done to Turkey? How different would it be?
AYDINTASBAS: I think, undoubtedly, would have meant a lurch towards the west. They — their major platform, their primary goal was restoring
democracy. This is a country that has experienced a very severe dramatic backsliding. Jomana previously, just before I came on, described some of
the issues. Young people tell you they cannot breathe, they point to their necks, they — because of, sort of, restrictions. They feel they cannot say
what they want to say on social media. There is a monopoly of the government, and media, and of course, you know judiciary.
So, the first order of business was described as democracy. I think that would’ve improved relations with Europe and the United States. And they
also — Kilicdaroglu, the opposition leader, also said he wants to improve Turkeys relations with NATO, U.S., and Europe. And one of the things they
hoped, and I think this was the last chance for Turkey, was to go back, go to Brussels, and knock on Europe’s door and say, is there a part of that
old long forgotten accession process with the — to the European union that we can resuscitate?
And I think the answer, we don’t know what the answer would be, but the — it would have been possible, easier under a — Turkey that undergoes
reforms. It would be easier to start a new relationship with Europe. Now, that opportunity may not be there, but of course, Turkey is a big power.
And if Erdogan wins, people in Washington, people in Brussels, and other countries will have to start thinking of what kind of a new relationship or
more stable and new relationship they could have with Turkey.
AMANPOUR: So, let’s talk about that and let’s first take Erdogan’s own words. And this is, kind of, the two sides were sparring over. The Ukraine
war and who supports Russia mor and who doesn’t. And President Erdogan had this to say about that, speaking directly about the opposition.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, TURKISH PRESIDENT (through translator): Russia is one of our most important allies in agricultural products. It is in the defense
industry. In the same way, there is an influx of tourists right now. Where do nearly 5.5 million tourists come to us from? It comes from Russia. What
will you do with it? Are you going to do it on the orders you get from America? Are you going to do it on instructions from Biden? Biden
instructed, we have to topple Erdogan. I know that. All of my people know that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
AMANPOUR: So, Asli, let’s just break that last thing about Biden, because that doesn’t bode well, does it, if they have spinning conspiracy theories
already. The president himself is spinning that Biden wants to topple Erdogan, as he says.
AYDINTASBAS: This was a consistent theme in this election. President — actually, not in this election, but for a number of years now, has been
saying the West is trying to bring him down, they’re trying to prevent Turkey’s inevitable rise and they even talked about encirclement of Turkey
by the United — by United States when he was describing new U.S.-Greek relationships.
So, he does — he has brought the country, I think, to a very anti-American place. This is not to say, you know, he’s wrong on every issue, but the
truth is the country is far more anti-American today than it was. Having said all that, I think, this — he’s trying to do a balancing act between
the West and Russia.
I don’t think he wants Turkey to be a Russian vessel. He has a good relationship with Vladimir Putin, a good personal relationship with
Vladimir Putin. There’s a lot of trade. Turkey has not gone with western sanctions, in fact has increased, hugely, his trade with Russia. But Turkey
is also selling weapons to Ukraine and is trying to do this balancing act between NATO and Russia.
I think this is going to be his legacy. He thinks of Turkey as a country that should be a poll in itself, a rising power. To him, it’s destined to
be a great power in 21st century. In fact, his campaign is called the centuries of Turkey, 21st century, they call it, going to — is going to be
the century of Turkey.
And I think he is going to continue this theme of Turkey as a nonaligned power, a rising power, that can have a foot in each camp but not
necessarily be this sort of loyal Transatlantic ally that it used to be 20 years ago. This will also bring him — sorry.
AMANPOUR: Yes. No, no, no. That’s OK. Asli, I wanted to ask you, because, you know, the White House is looking carefully, there’s a briefing from the
White House and the national security spokesman says that they are monitoring the election very carefully. They wanted, you know, to make sure
they have their eye on the final result.
Because, despite all this, as you say, Turkey is at its most anti-American in a long, long time. Erdogan did acts as a mediator, for instance, to try
to get and did get that grain deal unstuck, at least for a while, between Russia and Ukraine. But of course, the Biden administration has made
enlarging and protecting and defending democracy, the hallmark of its global foreign policy.
Turkey is an ally. Do you think — I mean, is Turkey an illiberal democracy under Erdogan or how should one describe it?
AYDINTASBAS: So, it’s an illiberal authoritarian maybe system, but also competitive. It is possible, I think, to see a change of government in
Turkey. Yes, there is an uneven playing field, but Erdogan won yesterday’s 49.5 percent. He didn’t — it didn’t magically appear in ballots and on
televisions. He campaigned in city after city, sometimes using a very negative campaign, sometimes using other campaign tactics that he’s seen
Donald Trump used. But there is no denying the fact that this is a competitive illiberal system. One that, if the opposition manages, perhaps,
to put forwards someone more charismatic or more of a match for Erdogan, could win.
AMANPOUR: OK.
AYDINTASBAS: And I think that you would see that Turkish people generally have this faith that it can happen.
AMANPOUR: Right.
AYDINTASBAS: Relations with the U.S. will be a challenge. And so far, Biden administration has kept Turkey, more or less, at an arms distance in part
because of exactly what you’ve said, it’s — it just doesn’t fit in the democracy versus authoritarian framing. It doesn’t fit in the right camp.
But I think there’s going to be some soul-searching, because here is Turkey, right to the south of Ukraine, having, with Russia, Middle East and
Europe into section of all these issues, people want — will want to have a stable relationship with Turkey even —
AMANPOUR: So, let me just follow-up, finally, because even Kilicdaroglu said, that’s opposition candidate, Kemal, said — and his — the members of
his opposition coalition, who I spoke to, said they too would keep up trade relations with Russia. But he now has said — Candidate Kilicdaroglu, has
said that he is concerned about the actual, again, level or unlevel playing field going into this runoff. Here is what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KEMAL KILICDAROGLU, TURKISH CHP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE (through translator): My dear people, the AK Party members are trying to block the
system with repeated objections at the ballot boxes where our vote rates are significantly high.
To give an example, their persistent objections to 300 ballot boxes in Ankara and 783 ballot boxes in Istanbul. There are ballot boxes of which
the results were contested six times and some 11 times. What you block is the will of Turkey.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
AMANPOUR: So, Asli, in literally 20 seconds, is that a legitimate fear?
AYDINTASBAS: I think people generally feel that, in the end, when the counting and recounting and further counting is done, everybody’s numbers
even out. Yes, it’s an uneven playing field and there is a sort of a monopoly or repressive mood, but I think that, at the end of the whole
process, on the day of —
AMANPOUR: OK.
AYDINTASBAS: — elections, what goes in generally comes out and is counted.
AMANPOUR: Really interesting.
AYDINTASBAS: And so, I think that is seen as the — you know, this morning, even CHP, the main opposition party, seems to accept that, you know, things
didn’t and go as well as they wanted.
AMANPOUR: So, we will see what happens in about two weeks from now. Thank you so much indeed for joining us.
And turning to the future of the workforce, the World Economic Forum published its latest employment report that found that nearly half —
sorry, nearly a quarter of jobs are expected to change in the next four years with A.I. and automation changing the landscape. So, what does the
future hold for workers, to discuss which sectors will see the largest changes, WEF managing director Saadia Zahidi joins Hari Sreenivasan.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HARI SREENIVASAN: Christiane, thanks. Saadia Zahidi, thanks so much for joining us.
The new World Economic Forum Future Jobs Report, it comes out every couple of years. What were the top lines this time around?
SAADIA ZAHIDI, MANAGING DIRECTOR, WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM: So, we tried to look at forced (ph) technological destruction, but also, what’s happening
in terms of geopolitical shifts and how supply chains are relocating. We also tried to look at the green transition and what that means for jobs.
And overall, we find that about of quarter of all jobs will be affected in some form or the other.
So, 23 percent that are going to be affected, 12 percent that will decline or disappear and 10 percent that will be grown. Largely speaking, though,
that’s on average a similar amount that’s going to be declining and a similar amount that’s going to be growing.
SREENIVASAN: All right. So, I can do basic math, and that still leaves a couple of percent short. So, are there specific sectors that will be more
greatly impacted in this kind of turn?
ZAHIDI: Yes. There is about 14 million jobs that that 2 percent difference translates into. And it’s very clear that it’s the roles where, previously,
there was a lot of concern about the robot, the revolution and about industrial robots and what that was going to do to jobs in factories and a
lot of our previous reports have seen what will happen on those sectors.
What we’re seeing this time is there’s much more concern about what will happen due to the rise of algorithms and especially generative artificial
intelligence. So, the types of roles that are expected to be displaced, people who are bank tellers, people who are postal service (INAUDIBLE),
people who are administrative assistants and secretaries, and yet, at the same time, there’s a lot of growth that’s also expected, but that is going
to be for those folks that are able to do machine learning and data analysis, people who are working in sustainability, people who are working
in ESG and a number of roles that will be growing there that are at the combination of the climate transition and technology.
SREENIVASAN: So, that means that there’s a tremendous amount of, I guess, re-scaling necessary to try to employ those people who might be displaced.
I mean, how does that happen?
ZAHIDI: Yes. So, there are certainly some elements of this that falls on the worker themselves, and that’s where workers will have to continue to
reskill and upskill themselves and life’s long learning, I think, finally has to become a reality.
But there’s another element, which is, at a scale that this is currently happening and the speed with which this is currently happening, governments
will have to put a lot more investment towards setting up the actual operating system around reskilling and upskilling.
And if we look towards economies like Denmark that have had this for a very long time, what they’ve done is they brought the three things together.
Yes, the constant learning, the reskilling, the upskilling, but they’ve tied that up to income support when somebody in is between jobs, and
they’ve tied that up to career support and job centers that can actually help somebody transition into a new role. So, it’s that combination of
three things and not just reskilling and upskilling.
SREENIVASAN: You know, when you look at, kind of right now, the conversation around artificial intelligence and generative A.I., there
seems to be a lot of — more on the fear side of things, on what this is going to do to different sectors of white-collar jobs. Where is the
potential that you’re seeing for the new jobs that, perhaps, we’re not envisioning yet?
ZAHIDI: You know, there is almost all possible disruptions that have taken place in the past. There has always been more job creation, net job
creation, and even this time, despite those fears, what we found is that 50 percent of companies still expect generative A.I. to be a net job creator.
25 percent of companies expect it to be a net job destroyer, and the other 25 percent are essentially undecided.
So, overall, there’s still this net positive effect. And the types of roles that are being displaced, on the one hand, were roles that for a long time
were predicted as coming under displacement. But exactly to your point, it’s now a set of high — relatively high skills, middle income, middle
class roles that are going to come under this type of new displacement.
Now, when we speak to businesses that are actually integrating some of these technologies, they’re finding that most of the time this is not about
full displacement, this is about augmentation. So, the same person will continue to do some version of those tasks, but they will be integrating
more technology and they will be expected to apply more creative thinking, more analytical thinking, more leadership, more social influence, more
connecting with other people.
So, where is some possibility that a lot of this simply heads towards augmentation, but again, that’s back to then reskilling and upskilling that
has to be provided by employers themselves.
SREENIVASAN: You know, in developing economies, we’ve seen kind of a disconnect. On the one hand, we have labor shortages and then, on the other
hand, we have this sort of layoffs that are happening at the same time, especially in the sort of digital and tech side.
ZAHIDI: Yes. So, in advance economies there’s sort of a hangover from COVID, in particular, where a number of people have chosen to drop out of
the workforce, in some cases permanently. Some people have chosen to relocate to other locations. And now, their workplaces are asking them to
come back. Some people in, for example, the health care sector, feel burned out or don’t feel treated during the time that they were having to work
under very high degrees of stress, and some people in service work who were potentially fully laid off during that time and now, has to come back are
simply not interested in coming back in such a difficult environment.
So, there is a set of people that have potentially ruled themselves out for some time, and that’s leading to those talent shortages. There is a second
element to those talent shortages, which is skills. The types of roles that companies are looking for right now, especially at the higher skilled end
of the white-collar workforce, these are roles in data management, these are people who are working in machine learning, these are people who are
sustainability specialists, these are people who are solar panel installers, these are people with very technical skills, and that is
something that simply doesn’t exist in the numbers that companies are looking for.
So, that’s really causing some of this almost sort of fragmentation where companies are looking for talent, and at the same time, they are laying off
those roles that they simply don’t need anymore.
SREENIVASAN: I wonder if these companies are doing themselves a disservice by laying off workers instead of reskilling them, especially if there’s a
tight labor market in these advanced economies.
ZAHIDI: Many companies are starting to find out that the very rapid decisions they took, in terms of layoffs, especially workers that were
service workers in — during the time of the pandemic, and now that they are having to search for that talent that it may, in fact, have been better
to continue to keep those workers on, to provide them with some support with reskilling and upskilling, to keep some level of connection, to keep
some level of loyalty with those workers, because it actually ends up being cheaper and more efficient for them in the long-term to keep those workers
on.
Most companies expect to have, within a year, relatively high returns from reskilling and upskilling investments. So, it actually is worth keeping the
worker on than laying off in most cases, and I think that’s going to be a second lesson that companies will learn throughout the course of this
economic downturn.
SREENIVASAN: One of the larger sections of your report talks about kind of the green sector and the transition that we are all in. Where do you see
the largest amounts of kind of potential? Is it the agriculture sector? Is it the fossil fuel sector?
ZAHIDI: So, this has been one of the bright spots in the report in terms of being in that job creator, the green transition that we are in the midst of
in most advanced economies. But the types of jobs that it’s creating are actually very widely dispersed. They don’t sit across one sector.
So, for example, most companies are looking for people who are broadly specialized in ESG and sustainability. So, sustainability specialists, it’s
how they’re being described. A second element is specific technical roles like people who are working in solar energy. A third element is somebody
who is working in waste management and the circular economy. So, these are very different skill sets, these are across very different functions and
many different industries. So, there’s high potential for growth, but these are not necessarily all high skilled roles.
SREENIVASAN: And it seems like, also, health care is one of the areas in the report here that seems like it has a massive increase on the way
because no amount of generative A.I. is really going to be able to replace physical and human contact, if that’s what’s necessary, in providing care.
ZAHIDI: Yes. And I think this is going to be one of the sectors that governments in particular will have to watch around the world, advanced and
developing economies alike. Because, on the one hand, there will be a huge move for greater workforce in health care, because there is higher demand,
and there will be a huge need for greater elder care, there will be a big need for greater childcare. So, the entire care sector will be in much
higher demand than it was before.
And on the other hand, if you look at the pipeline of, especially younger people, very few want to go into this sector because they’ve all just
observed how that sector is generally underpaid, yet in high demand, is qualified as essential work, but not necessarily valued as such by society.
And so, I think we are going to face a major challenge crunch in that sector, and governments will quite seriously have to look at elevating
wages and working conditions in that sector.
SREENIVASAN: And I wonder about how this impacts higher education or what we see as signs of a credential these days, because if there are a new set
of skills that are necessary and if it’s something that perhaps you don’t need to go to school for four years to do, do employers see that change
happening that are we allowing certified individuals to come in that don’t have the — well, the college track?
ZAHIDI: Some digital companies and some companies that have more technical roles, because they are facing shortage of talent, they are starting to
look this way. But I think, in general, this is something, economy wise, that most countries will have to start to do. Because it no longer makes
sense to look at somebody’s credentials from 20 or 30 years ago when you’re trying to bring in an experienced worker, nor to simply look at which
organization they worked for in the past on their CV, but to actually assess yourself what are their skills and to bring them in on the basis of
those skills.
And there’s interesting opportunities here because if you start looking at people with the sort of skills first mindset, it does create a lot more
opportunity for those without college degrees who potentially come from lower income backgrounds, it creates more opportunity for women and for
minorities, and that’s starting to show up in some of the data.
SREENIVASAN: You know, one thing I want to ask about, you wrote book awhile back, “Fifty Million Rising: The Rise of Working Women in the Muslim
World,” and I’m sure it’s something that’s personal and important to you, and I wonder, you know, in 2018, you became the youngest managing director
at the World Economic Forum.
And as these transitions have happened, through the pandemic and now beyond, where do you see that growth happening, whether it’s women in the
Muslim world or young women entering the workforce? Is it becoming better, more equal, still slow, better in certain parts of the world? What do you
see?
ZAHIDI: Yes. I mean, every year we produce a global gender gap report at the World Economic Forum and tried to benchmark how that gender gap is
evolving. And it’s very clear that there was a hit to the gender gap during COVID, because the types of roles that were disrupted tended to be the
types of roles that women have been earning good middle class livelihoods from, whether that’s in travel and tourism or administrative work or the
service industry.
Because a lot of the growth in the roles was around technology and digital roles, which tend not to be large sort of pools of women that are going
into them. And then, finally, third, because the care infrastructure simply didn’t exist for most families to be able to balance working from home and
being able to continue to work in to income households. So, there was a massive disruption.
I think we’re starting to see some recovery from it. The latest data would say, yes, and that disruption applied equally in the Muslim world as it did
elsewhere. But we are starting to see some recovery, including in the U.S., including in places like the UAE, including in places like India. So, there
is starting to be some shift, but there’s going to need to be at least a generation’s worth of recovery compared to where we were pre-COVID.
SREENIVASAN: So, five years out from now, how fast do you see some of this sort of predictions coming true? I mean, what kind of impact are we going
to see on the global labor market?
ZAHIDI: You know, what’s interesting is that as much as we’re talking about the green transition, as much as we’re talking about technology adoption,
the biggest threat to jobs is actually due to the economic downturn that we are currently in.
The specific trend that is likely to — most displace jobs is the slowing economic growth, rising costs, which are then, of course, reducing
consumption from people. And then, third, the rising cost of inputs into production in most companies, that is likely the biggest — to be the
biggest threat.
SREENIVASAN: You’re a trained economist, you’ve worked as one, do you see the signs necessary that predict that a global recession is on the way?
Because, in the U.S., it seems like we’ve been talking about and hearing about a potential recession, waiting for the other shoe to drop for almost
a year and a half now.
ZAHIDI: I think policymakers have been taking a number of actions to prevent things from heading in that direction. And yet, the same time, we
haven’t quite seen a bouncing back either. And we just launched, last week, our “Chief Economist Outlook,” which Surveys a number of different chief
economists. So, not just our view but actually tries to ask chief economists from around the world, across different sectors. And
interestingly, 45 percent of them are expecting a global recession, and exactly 45 percent of them are expecting to bypass and avoid a recession.
So, I think there’s just enormous amounts of uncertainty in the data and we don’t necessarily know. But of course, policymakers are putting in place a
lot of efforts, and that is helping keep this middle ground.
SREENIVASAN: One of the things you write is, there is no doubt that the future of work will be disruptive, but it need not be dystopian. So, what
do we need to do to ensure that these changes in the job market is a healthy transition?
ZAHIDI: I think one element is responsible employers, and that’s to a large part about their work force. And they have to ensure that they are
investing more in reskilling and in upskilling, but they also have to think about, you know, to the point that we discussed earlier, is it better to be
keeping the loyalty and energy of my workforce, and to, for some period of time, sacrifice short-term efficiency for the longer-term shift towards a
highly productive, motivated, innovative workforce, because I’m going to invest in their skills?
I think that’s something employers will very seriously have to think about because they are not simply going to be able to go to the market and buy
ready-made talents for what they are looking for. So, much more investment as responsible employers is one piece of this.
I think governments truly thinking through — you know, industrial policy is back and (INAUDIBLE) across most of the western world. But if
governments expect to be serious about investing in the digital transition and investing in the green transition, they equally have to invest in the
skills that are required to make that happen. And so, again, setting up those lifelong learning systems will be critical.
A third element is workers themselves, but it’s also younger people. It’s also those that are, for example, in secondary school. It’s very clear
already that they have to think about technological literacy, they have to think about leadership and social influence skills and they have to think
about analytical and creativity skills, regardless of the subjects that they choose across what they do, which degrees they pick, which
certificates they get, they have to have those three generalized skill sets.
SREENIVASAN: Saadia Zahidi, World Economic Forum managing director, thanks so much for having us.
ZAHIDI: Thanks for having me.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
AMANPOUR: And finally, job skills with a twist. As we mentioned, Brazil struggling to protect the Amazon, while nearby Chile is testing a creative
solution to save its own force from wildfires, goats. These four-legged firefighters graze on dry vegetation that lights easily. And out their
other end comes soil enriching droppings.
They’ve already saved one native forest from deadly flames in February. With the park being the only green spot left amid the fires according to
the initiative’s co-founder. And the goats might just be going global, with similar schemes underway in California, Portugal and Spain. Now, that’s
progress.
That’s it for now. Goodbye from New York.