Harris vs. Trump: Nate Silver’s 2024 Election Forecast

>>> NOW WITH THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION EDGING CLOSER, ALL EYES ARE SERIOUSLY FOCUSED ON CANDIDATES KAMALA HARRIS AND DONALD TRUMP.

NATE SILVER, THE PROPHETIC POLLSTER AND POKER PLAYER WHO FOUNDED THE WEBSITE FIVETHIRTYEIGHT HAS A NEW BULLETIN WITH ALL THE LATEST ANALYSIS.

HE ALSO HAS A NEW BOOK DETAILING HOW MUCH LIKE IN POKER, RISK-TAKING COULD BE THE KEY TO SUCCESS.

AND NATE SILVER IS JOINING WALTER ISAACSON TO DISCUSS HOW BOLD ACTION COULD BE A GAME-CHANGER IN NOVEMBER.

>> THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE.

AND NATE SILVER, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> THANK YOU, WALTER.

>> YOU HAVE A GREAT NEW BOOK OUT THIS WEEK CALLED "ON THE EDGE."

IT'S ABOUT EVERYTHING FROM POKER TO CRYPTOCURRENCY TO POLITICS.

LET ME START, THOUGH, WITH POLITICS.

PEOPLE LIKE ME GO TO YOUR SUBSTACK, THE SILVER BULLETIN EVERY DAY TO SEE THAT ELECTION PREDICTOR, THE ELECTION ODDS TYPE THING.

TELL ME, WHAT IS IT SHOWING NOW IN TERMS OF HARRIS VERSUS TRUMP, AND HOW DO YOU CALCULATE THE PROBABILITIES FOR THAT?

>> SO IT SHOWS THAT RIGHT NOW HARRIS IS ABOUT A THREE-POINT LEAD IN NATIONAL POLLS.

IT'S A NUMBER DEMOCRATS ARE FAMILIAR WITH.

HILLARY CLINTON WON THE POPULAR VOTE BY TWO POINTS IN 2016.

BIDEN WON IT BY FOUR POINTS IN 2020.

SHE IS RIGHT IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO BENCHMARKS.

HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

WE'VE SEEN THE DRAMATIC EVENTS THAT HAVE UNFOLDED ON THE CAMPAIGN SO FAR, FROM DEMOCRATS CHANGING THEIR CANDIDATES TO THE ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT AGAINST FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP.

SO WE HAVE HER AS ABOUT A 55, 45 FAVORITE.

IF YOU'RE A POKER PLAYER, YOU'D RATHER HAVE THE 55, BUT AS REGULAR PEOPLE, IT'S A TOSS-UP.

IT'S POLLS BUT WE ALSO ACCOUNT FOR THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY AND WHETHER THE CANDIDATE IS AN INCUMBENT OR CHALLENGER.

IN HARRIS' CASE, THERE IS NO INCUMBENT IN THE ELECTION ANYMORE.

BIDEN IS NOT RUNNING FOR ANOTHER TERM.

AND THE ECONOMY IS GOOD BY SOME MEASURES, BAD BY SOME MEASURES.

WE HAVE IT ABOUT AVERAGE OVERALL.

SO OUR MODEL THINKS IF YOU HAD AVERAGE CANDIDATES, IT WOULD BE A TOSS-UP IN THE POPULAR VOTE.

A TIE IN THE POPULAR VOTE, WHICH MEANS AN ELECTORAL COLLEGE, WHICH USUALLY FAVORS REPUBLICANS, SHE MIGHT HAVE A DISADVANTAGE.

DEMOCRATS WON THE POPULAR VOTE AND LOST THE ELECT COLLEGE.

THAT COULD HAPPEN AGAIN.

THERE IS A 12% MODEL THAT SHE COMES SO CLOSE TO VICTORY THAT SHE JUST COMES A LITTLE SHORT IN WISCONSIN, PENNSYLVANIA, MICHIGAN, DESPITE WINNING THE POPULAR VOTE AGAIN.

>> WE'VE SEEN A LOT OF WHAT WE COULD CALL BLACK SWAN EVENTS, THINGS TOTALLY UNEXPECTED THAT DISRUPT EVERYTHING, WHETHER IT'S AN OUTBREAK OF COVID FROM CHINA OR BIDEN DROPPING OUT OF THE RACE, AND WE MIGHT HAVE MORE BLACK SWAN EVENTS.

WHO KNOWS.

A WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST OR A GAZA CEASEFIRE.

HOW DO YOU WHEN YOU DO PROBABILISTIC MODELS ACCOUNT FOR THE BLACK SWAN EVENTS?

>> WE DON'T ACCOUNT FOR BLACK SWANS PER SE, BUT WE DO SAY THE FURTHER OUT YOU ARE FROM THE ELECTION, THE MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE IS.

IT'S KIND OF LIKE A LITTLE HURRICANE TRACK WHERE YOU GO OUT IN TIME AND SPACE, AND THE CONE OF THE HURRICANE GETS WIDER.

IT'S BASICALLY HOW OUR MODEL WORKS.

IF THE ELECTION WERE TOMORROW, IT WOULD STILL BE UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE POLLING IS CLOSE, BUT LESS UNCERTAIN THAN IT IS NOW.

LESS UNCERTAIN THAN IN THREE MONTHS.

>> IN TERMS OF CALCULATING RISKS, ONE OF THE BIG RISKS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY FACED IS DURING THAT PERIOD WHEN BIDEN WAS THINKING OF STAYING IN THE RACE, DROPPING OUT OF THE RACE.

YOU SAID THAT THE RISK OF DOING NOTHING WAS MUCH STRONGER.

WHY?

>> I MEAN, THIS IS ONE CORE LESSON FROM THE BOOK WHERE IT'S TAKEN PEOPLE LIKE H.R.

McMASTER THAT HAVE BEEN IN MILITARY BAPTISTS.

STANDING STILL IS SOMETIMES NOT A GOOD OPTION.

IF YOU'RE ON THE BATTLEFIELD, YOU EITHER WANT TO RETREAT AND LIVE TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY OR CHARGE FORWARD.

STAYING THERE AS A SITTING DUCK IS NOT A GREAT OPTION.

PEOPLE CONFLATE DOING NOTHING WITH BEING THE SAFE CHOICE WHEN SOMETIMES IN A LOT OF WALKS OF LIFE WE HAVE TO TAKE BOLD ACTION ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

IN POKER TERMS YOU, HAVE TO RAISE OR FOLD, SOMETIMES CALLING IS THE WORST CHOICE.

>> AND THAT'S WHAT YOU TALK ABOUT WHAT YOU LEARNED FROM POKER, WHICH THOSE OF US WHO ARE MUCH MORE AMATEURS THAN YOU ARE, YOU HAVE WON ALL SORTS OF TOURNAMENTS SOMETIMES DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO.

SO WE DON'T FOLD, WE DON'T RAISE, WE JUST CALL.

TELL ME WHY THAT'S A BAD STRATEGY.

>> IT'S A BAD CHOICE BECAUSE YOU WANT TO DICTATE THE ACTION IN POKER.

NOW AND THEN I'LL DEAL A BACKYARD GAME TO FRIENDS IN BROOKLYN WHO ARE PLAYING FOR IF FIRST TIME.

AND THE HALLMARK OF A BAD AMATEUR POKER PLAYER THEY JUST WANT TO CALL AND SEE WHAT UNFOLDS.

POKER IS A GAME ABOUT ARE COMED AGGRESSION.

>> HOW DOES THAT APPLY TO POLITICS THEN?

>> LOOK, I THINK POLITICS CAN BE VIEWED AS A STRATEGIC GAME, AMONG OTHER THINGS.

IT'S MUCH HIGHER STAKES THAN A POKER GAME FOR SURE.

BUT BOTH PARTIES ARE INTELLIGENT.

THEY BOTH HAVE AN INCENTIVE TO WIN.

IN THE LONG RUN, BOTH PARTIES WIN ABOUT HALF THE TIME.

I THINK ONE MISTAKE THAT TRUMP MADE IS TO UNDERSTATEMENT DEMOCRATS' WILLINGNESS TO CHANGE THEIR CANDIDATE.

DEMOCRATS DO NOT HAVE A PERSONALITY CULT AROUND JOE BIDEN THAT THE GOP DOES AROUND TRUMP.

THEY KIND OF SELECTED BIDEN IN 2020.

JIM CLYBURN AND OTHERS CAME BEHIND TO SPARK HIM INTO THE NOMINATION AND THEY PUSHED HIM ASIDE WHEN IT WAS IN THEIR STRATEGIC INTERESTS TO PICK ANOTHER CANDIDATE INSTEAD.

>> IN YOUR BOOK, YOU SAY YOUR FIRST LOVE IS NOT REALLY POLITICS.

YOUR FIRST LOVE IS POKER.

YOU ARE A GREAT POKER PLAYER.

YOU PLAYED ONLINE AND SOME BILL SAYING YOU COULDN'T COLLECT YOUR WINNINGS ON LINE.

AND THAT DROVE YOU INTO POLITICS.

EXPLAIN THAT.

>> I HAD A BORING CONSULTING JOB OUT OF COLLEGE.

A FRIEND OF MINE AT WORK WANTED TO START A POKER GAME.

I STARTED PRACTICING.

PLAYING FREE GAMES ON A INTERNET.

POKER IS A GAME PLAYED FOR MONEY.

EVENTUALLY DEPOSITED ON THE SOMEWHAT SKETCHY OFFSHORE SITES.

AND IT WAS A TIME WHEN IT WAS CALLED THE POKER BOOM, BUT MORE LIKE A POKER BUBBLE WHERE YOU HAD LOT OF DUMB MONEY, MAYBE LIKE THE CRYPTO BUBBLE FROM YEARS AGO.

BEING MEDIOCRE, I WAS BETTER THAN THE COMPETITION.

THE CLICHE IF YOU CAN'T SPOT THE SUCKER AT THE TABLE, YOU'RE THE SUCKER.

EVERYONE WAS A SUCKER AND I WAS HALFWAY DECENT.

FOR A TIME, IT WITH AUSTRALIA GOOD WAY TO EARN A LIVING.

>> TELL ME ABOUT SOME OF THE LESSONS YOU LEARNED FROM POKER AND HOW THAT APPLIES TO OTHER THINGS.

>> LOOK, THE GREAT EMILY BRUNSON, MAYBE THE BEST PLAYER OF ALL TIME BEFORE HE PASSED AWAY PREACHED TIGHT POKER, YOU'RE SELECTIVE WHICH HANDS.

WHEN YOU PLAY THEM, YOU PLAY AGGRESSIVELY AND IT'S IMPORTANT TO BLUFF.

THE REASON WHY POKER WORKS IS YOU HAVE TO BLUFF TO INDUCE YOUR POINTS TO CALL WHEN YOU IS A STRONG HAND.

THERE IS A LOT OF EMOTIONAL DISCIPLINE THAT YOU FACE WHEN YOU PLAY POKER.

IF YOU LOSE A BIG POT AND LOSE HALF YOUR STACK YOU STILL HAVE TO BATTLE FOR THE NEXT HAND, OR VICE VERSA.

SOMETIMES PEOPLE GO ON WHAT'S CALLED TILT, BEING EMOTIONAL AND NOT PLAYING OPTIMALLY.

THAT CAN HAPPEN ON A WINNING STREAK TOO.

A LOT OF PEOPLE IN MY WORLD, THE WORLD I CALL THE RIVER OF CALCULATED RISK TAKING, THEY GO ON A WINNING STREAK AND THEN THEY GET OVERCONFIDENT.

AND THAT'S A BIG RISK AS WELL.

>> ONE OF THE CHARACTERS IN YOUR BOOK THAT'S PRETTY BIG IS ELON MUSK.

AND HE SAYS THAT WE USED TO BE A NATION OF RISK TAKER, BUT NOW WE'VE BECOME A NATION WITH MORE REFEREES THAN RISK TAKERS.

DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT?

>> I AGREE WITH THAT IN PART.

I THINK, LOOK, SILICON VALLEY IS STILL THE INNOVATION CAPITAL OF THE WORLD IN AI, WHICH MIGHT BE THE MOST IMPORTANT TECHNOLOGY OF THE NEXT GENERATION, AND THE U.S. IS A LEADER RIGHT NOW.

YOU KNOW, ATTRACTING IMMIGRANTS FROM ALL AROUND THE WORLD IS VERY IMPORTANT.

BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WE SAW -- I THINK COVID REVEALED THAT THERE IS A STREAK MAYBE ON THE EAST COAST PARTICULAR OF RISK AVERSION.

INSTEAD OF TRYING TO WAY RISK AND REWARDS.

LOOK, THE BOOK IN SOME WAYS IS ABOUT AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM IN CERTAIN WAYS.

OUR ECONOMY IS STILL GROWING WHERE EUROPE'S HAS STAGNATED FOR EXAMPLE.

AND RISK-TAKING COUNTRIES TEND TO WIN IN THE LONG RUN.

>> TELL ME ABOUT COVID AND HOW WE MISCALCULATED IN YOUR MIND RISKS DURING THAT PERIOD.

>> YEAH, LOOK.

IT'S A HARD PROBLEM TO SOLVE.

IT'S THE WORST PEOPLE THAT THE WORLD FACED IN 100 YEARS.

AND MAYBE WHERE OUR TUITIONS WEREN'T VERY VALUABLE THERE.

BUT SOMETIMES THINGS THAT ARE HARD TO CALCULATE LIKE THE VALUE OF BEING ABLE TO HAVE A SOCIAL LIFE OR THE VALUE MORE IMPORTANTLY OF BEING ABLE TO SEND YOUR KIDS TO SCHOOL, THAT HAS HUGE CONSEQUENCES THAT WILL BE REALIZED YEARS LATER WHEN YOU HAVE HALF A YEAR OF EDUCATION PERMANENTLY LOST TO STUDENTS AROUND THE U.S.

IF YOU TRY TO CALCULATE THAT, IT'S HARD.

IT AS EFFECTS ON THE WELL-BEING AND GDP AND EVERYTHING ELSE.

UNFORTUNATELY, WE HAVE TO MAKE DECISIONS, RIGHT.

WE CAN'T JUST CALL AGAIN IN THE POKER SENSE ALL THE TIME.

AND I THINK IN THAT SENSE, WE COULD HAVE BEEN MAYBE BOLDER ABOUT SHUTTING DOWN MORE STRICTLY AT THE START AND REALIZING AFTER THE FIRST COUPLE OF MONTHS WE HAD TO OPEN UP AND PAY A PRICE, BUT THAT THE CONSEQUENCES OF NOT GETTING BACK TO NORMAL FOR EDUCATION AND OTHER SECTIONS OF THE ECONOMY OUTWEIGHED THE FRANKLY HORRIBLE DEATH TOLL.

BUT IT'S A TOUGH CHOICE YOU HAVE TO MAKE.

YOU CAN'T AVOID TOUGH CHOICES SOMETIMES.

>> DID THE PARTISAN RESPONSE TO COVID IN SOME WAY SHIFT YOUR OWN POLITICAL THINKING?

>> YEAH, LOOK.

ONE TREND THAT YOU'VE SEEN FOR THE PAST 15 OR 20 YEARS IS THAT MORE AND MORE PEOPLE WHO GO TO COLLEGE OR ESPECIALLY HAVE ADVANCED DEGREES ARE LIBERALS AND DEMOCRATS, WHICH IS FINE.

BUT WHEN YOU HAVE COMMUNITIES WHERE 95% OF THE PEOPLE ARE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS, YOU CAN HAVE A CON CALCULATION BETWEEN EXPERTISE FOR EXPERTISE'S SAKE AND USING THAT AS A WEAPON FOR QUESTIONS LIKE THE ORIGINS OF COVID SEEM HIGHLY AMBIGUOUS TO ME.

BUT BECAUSE PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS ON THE SIDE OF THE LAB LEAK, THAT STRESSED VALID DISCUSSION ABOUT THE DISEASE THAT WE DON'T KNOW YET.

THERE IS NO SIGN OF CONSENSUS ABOUT HOW IT EMERGED.

THAT CAUSED TO ME A LOSS OF TRUST IN THESE INSTITUTIONS.

AND PART OF WHAT THE BOOK IS ABOUT IN A WORLD WHERE WE FEEL LIKE WE HAVE TO FEND FOR OURSELVES.

EVERY ENTY HAS DECLINED PERCEPTIONS OF TRUST.

YOU HAVE TO MAKE UP YOUR OWN MIND, AND THAT'S WHAT THE BOOK IS ABOUT.

>> TO WHAT EXTENT IS A TASTE FOR RISK-TAKING AN INGRAINED TRAIT?

>> I THINK IT'S PRETTY GENETIC.

I TALKED TO A MAN NAMED VICTOR IN THE BOOK WHO IS THE ULTIMATE RISK TAKER.

HE HAS CLIMBED THE SEVEN SUMMITS ON EVERY CONTINENT.

HE HAS GONE TO THE DEPTHS OF THE FIVE OCEANS.

HE'S GONE INTO OUTER SPACE.

HE'S BEEN A FIGHTER PILOT.

AND HE'S WHEN I TALK TO OTHER PEOPLE WHO ARE TAKING THESE RISKS, BECAUSE HE KNOWS IF YOU'RE ON A MOUNTAIN 28,000-FEET HIGH, RIGHT, YOU CAN'T CONTROL EVERY RISK.

THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF AN AVALANCHE OR A MISSTEP.

HE HAS BEEN IN ACCIDENTS BEFORE.

AND HE TALKS TO OTHER EXPLORERS.

AND YEAH, THERE IS JUST SOMETHING INNATE, GENETIC, I DON'T KNOW IF HE KNOWS WHAT IT IS, BUT SOME PEOPLE JUST HAVE AN INTRINSIC DESIRE TO PUSH BOUNDARIES, I THINK.

>> DO YOU THINK THAT THERE IS A FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE PHYSICAL PHYSICAL RISK TAKER, PEOPLE CLIMBING MOUNTAINS, ASTRONAUTS, VERSUS SOMEBODY WHO LOVES DAY TRADING ON CRYPTOCURRENCY OR GAMBLING ON THE ROULETTE WHEEL?

>> TALKING TO BOTH GROUPS, I THINK THERE ISN'T.

IN PART BECAUSE WHEN YOU PLAY POKER, YOUR BODY FOR HIGH TAKES, YOUR BODY PERCEIVES THE RISK.

YOU ACTUALLY SEE YOUR HEART RATE INCREASE.

YOU SEE TIME PERCEPTION CAN SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BIT.

EVEN IN THINGS IF YOU ARE EVER GIVING A PUBLIC SPEECH AT A HIGH-STAKES SITUATION, WHERE IF YOU FLUB THE SPEECH, IT'S GOING TO LOOK BADLY ON YOU.

IT MIGHT HURT YOUR CAREER.

YOU CAN GET STAGE FRIGHT.

BUT OTHER PEOPLE BECOME POSSESSED AND IN THE ZONE AND BE BETTER UNDER PRESSURE THAN OTHER PEOPLE.

HAVING THAT SKILL -- AND THE GOOD NEWS, BY THE WAY, IS IT CAN BE LEARNED.

I THINK KAMALA HARRIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF A CANDIDATE WHO WAS NOT VERY GOOD IN HER FIRST CAMPAIGN IN 2020, BUT HAD A LOT OF PRACTICE GIVING SPEECHES ALL AROUND THE WORLD.

AND NOW SEEMS LIKE A MUCH BETTER CANDIDATE, AT LEAST SUBJECTIVELY TO ME.

SO YOU CAN TRAIN YOURSELF WHEN YOU'RE OPERATING ON OPERATING SYSTEM AND YOUR BODY HAS A STRESS RESPONSE, YOU'RE PICKING UP MORE INFORMATION FROM YOUR ENVIRONMENT.

AND YOU'LL SOMETIMES HEAR PEOPLE LIKE MICHAEL JORDAN TALK ABOUT HOW I'M IN THE ZONE, AND I SEE MORE THINGS AND TIMES THOSE DOWN.

I CAN THINK REALLY CLEARLY.

THAT'S A RARE TRAIT, BUT IF YOU POSSESS IT AND IF YOU PRACTICE IN THAT ZONE, THEN YOU CAN ACTUALLY ACCOMPLISH TREMENDOUS THINGS.

>> IF YOU WERE ADVISING LET'S START WITH THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN, WHICH CALCULATED RISKS WOULD YOU BEING ARE TO TAKE AND WHICH WOULD YOU AVOID?

I THINK THERE IS A CASE THAT SHE SHOULD HAVE PICKED JOSH SHAPIRO OF PENNSYLVANIA AS HER RUNNING MATE.

THAT'S KIND OF THE PERCENTAGE PLAY GIVEN HOW IMPORTANT PENNSYLVANIA IS TO THE OUTCOME.

I THINK NOW SHE HAS TO WORRY A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE RISK OF COMPLACENCY.

YOU KNOW, SHE IS A LITTLE BIT AHEAD IN THE POLLS RIGHT NOW.

SHE'LL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AHEAD AFTER THE CONVENTION.

BUT THE POLLS HAVE BEEN WRONG BEFORE.

WE SAW WITH HILLARY CLINTON IN 2016 HOW HAVING A TWO OR THREE-POINT LEAD IS FAR FROM A GUARANTEE OF SUCCESS.

>> AND WHAT ABOUT THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN?

WHAT RISK DO YOU THINK THEY SHOULD BE TAKING NOW?

>> YEAH, LOOK.

THE TERM THAT WE USE IN POKER SOMETIMES AS A PLAYER IS ON TILT WHERE THEY'RE PLAYING EMOTIONALLY.

AND SOME OF TRUMP'S RECENT DECISIONS ARE HARD TO RATIONALIZE, I THINK.

GOING AFTER KAMALA HARRIS' RACE, COMPLAINING ABOUT AI-ENHANCED CROWD SIZES WHEN THERE ARE A LOT OF LOW-HANGING FRUIT IN TERMS OF IMMIGRATION ON THE BORDER, IN TERMS OF HARRIS RUNNING VERY FAR TO HER LEFT IN 2020.

LOOK, TRUMP THOUGHT HE HAD A WINNING HAND.

HE THOUGHT HE HAD THE CAMPAIGN IN THE BAG.

AND WITH BIDEN AS A CANDIDATE, HE MIGHT HAVE.

BUT HE HAS TO ADJUST AND RECALIBRATE.

THEY'VE BEEN VERY SLOW ON THE DRAW AS DEMOCRATS REDEFINE J.D.

VANCE NEGATIVELY AND TIM WALZ POSITIVELY.

AND THERE IS NOT MUCH MORE TIME TO MAKE UP AT THIS POINT.

>> EINSTEIN ONCE SAID THAT ALL GREAT IDEAS COME FROM INTUITION.

BUT HE SAID ALL GREAT INTUITION COMES FROM PROCESSING A WHOLE LOT OF EARLIER EXPERIENCES.

YOU TALK IN THE BOOK ABOUT QUANTIFYING INTUITION.

EXPLAIN THAT.

>> SO IN POKER, YOU KIND OF ACTUALLY CAN DEVELOP A SIXTH SENSE BASED ON SOMEONE'S MANNERISMS, THE WAY THEIR POSTURE, THANKS LIKE THAT.

IF YOU SEE THEIR HEART BEATING IN THEIR NECK, FOR EXAMPLE YOU DEVELOP AN INTUITION YOU CORRELATE THAT WITH WHETHER THEY HAVE A STRONG OR WEEK HAND, THOUGH IT'S VERY CONTEXTUAL.

SOME PLAYERS GET MORE NERVOUS WHEN THEY'RE BLUFFING.

SOME GET MORE NERVOUS WHEN THEY HAVE A STRONG HAND AND ARE TRYING TO WIN A POT.

IT HAS TO BE PRACTICED.

INTUITION PROVIDES US DATA IF WE KNOW HOW TO CORRELATE THAT WITH BEHAVIORAL TRAITS.

ANOTHER PERSON -- NANCY PELOSI TALKED ABOUT HER INTUITION WITH EZRA KLEIN FOR UNDERSTANDING HOW THE DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS BEHAVES.

AND I BELIEVE IN HER INTUITION.

SHE UNDERSTANDS HOW DEMOCRATIC LEGISLATORS FOR SURE.

IT'S A MATTER OF PRACTICE AND SKILL.

IT'S A MATTER OF NOT JUST TRUSTING YOUR GUT BECAUSE YOU'RE BEING LAZY.

BUT IF YOU HAVE THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS OF EXPERIENCE IT CAN BE HELPFUL.

>> AT THE END OF YOUR BOOK, YOU TALK ABOUT CERTAIN THINGS WE COULD DO TO HAVE A BETTER SOCIETY.

YOU TALK ABOUT AGENCY.

YOU TALK ABOUT PLURALITY.

AND YOU ALSO TALK ABOUT RECIPROCITY.

LET ME DEAL WITH THE RECIPROCITY ONE.

THAT SEEMED THE MOST INTERESTING AND WHAT WE MOST NEED NOW.

EXPLAIN THAT TO ME.

>> THIS COMES PARTLY FROM GAME THEORY.

AND GAME THEORY IS WHAT EVOLVES WHEN BOTH YOU AND YOUR OPPONENT ARE PLAYING STRATEGICALLY AND ROUGHLY RATIONALY IN YOUR DECISION MAKING.

IN THE UNITED STATES, BOTH PARTIES WIN ELECTIONS ROUGHLY HALF THE TIME.

BECAUSE THEY DO ADAPT.

DONALD TRUMP UNDERSTOOD MAYBE THERE WERE OPPORTUNITIES AMONG WHITE WORKING CLASS VOTERS THAT WERE BEING NEGLECTED BY THE MITT ROMNEY, PAUL RYAN TYPE OF CANDIDATES.

RISK, THOUGH, I THINK THERE IS A RISK THAT BOTH PARTIES GET CAUGHT UP IN THEIR OWN BUBBLE AND DON'T GIVE THE OTHER SIDE CREDIT FOR ADAPTING INTELLIGENTLY.

I THINK MOST OBVIOUSLY THE CASE WITH THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN'S INABILITY TO SEE DEMOCRATS SWITCHING THEIR CANDIDATE WHICH IS THE RIGHT MOVE.

ASSUME YOUR OPPONENT IS PLAYING THEIR HAND WELL AND PLAY YOUR HAND BEST AS WELL BEGIN THAT.

THAT'S RECIPROCITY.

SOMETIMES YOU GET LUCKY AND A CANDIDATE MAKES A MISTAKE.

MOST OF THE TIME IT'S A COMPETITIVE MARKET, IT'S A COMPETITIVE ECONOMY.

SO GIVE YOUR OPPONENTS CREDIT AND ADAPT FROM THERE.

>> NATE SILVER, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU, WALTER.