How the Israel-Hamas War Could Impact the 2024 U.S. Election

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, INTERNATIONAL HOST: And as we’ve discussed, President Biden says it’s not time for a ceasefire, sparking anger not only among some liberal Democrats in Congress, but also young Muslim and Arab American voters. Votes from these communities in the Swing State of Michigan were instrumental to Biden’s 2020 presidential win. But senior Democratic strategist Waleed Shahid tells Hari Sreenivasan that’s at risk for 2024 as this new war ignites politics and passions.

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HARI SREENIVASAN, INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Christiane, thanks. Waleed Shahid, thanks so much for joining us. We have seen protests in different cities around the country. We even saw one in the Capitol. There were lots of people who were sitting in, in the Capitol building, calling for a ceasefire. Tell me, what are the organizations trying to raise awareness of and accomplish?

WALEED SHAHID, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Yes, the coalition calling for ceasefire as a multifaith, multiracial coalition made up of people of all backgrounds. We are an antiwar pro-peace coalition. We believe Israelis and Palestinians deserve peace and we want to see an end to the violence. We believe that more bombs and more bloodshed will lead to more bombs and more bloodshed. So, we’re calling on President Biden and Congress to push for a ceasefire and hold our ally in Israel accountable for atrocities that the Israeli government has committed against Palestinian civilians and also call on Hamas to release the Israeli hostages. President Biden has had leadership to resolve some of the worst armed conflicts and worst occupations in our world history. And he used diplomatic leverage and political pressure on our allies in South Africa and in England and in Ireland to bring the parties together, put an end to the violence and address the political grievances of the parties involved, and that is the same sort of method he should be using today rather than allying with a far-right regime in Israel that is hellbent on vengeance and ethnic cleansing of Palestinians.

SREENIVASAN: What’s the response been from the White House?

SHAHID: The response has been pretty disappointing. I mean, we have a president, in his address, who essentially is green lighting Netanyahu’s far-right governments attacks against Palestinian civilians. The Israeli government is led by a far-right coalition that holds Palestinians collectively responsible for the atrocities committed by Hamas. I just don’t see a plan from this White House. This White House is acting like as if we are in a world from 10 or 15 years ago in which Arab Americans and Muslim Americans and young people are just going to sit back and support a president and support a party that greenlights someone who believes that Gaza — greenlights someone in Israel who believes Gaza should be burned to the ground, who doesn’t believe in a two-state solution, who doesn’t believe that Palestinians are equal in the eyes of the government as Israelis. And so, we’re severely disappointed from the response from the White House, and we will keep pushing to get members of Congress to call on President Biden to push for peace and not war.

SREENIVASAN: There were several progressive and further left groups within hours of the attack on Hamas, they were publicizing efforts and marches and protests in support of Palestine without any mention of the civilian loss of life on Israel. Were you concerned when you saw those statements and was there — were there efforts to try to push back and say, well, we can’t be this way?

SHAHID: The thing said at some — by some of these fringe rallies and fringe activist groups about condoning Hamas or thinking Hamas is legitimate resistance are absolutely horrendous.

SREENIVASAN: Yes.

SHAHID: The thing I will say is there is not a single member of Congress or any elected official in government who stands by any of those things, that any of those activists said in the first couple days of this rally. You can’t find a single member of Congress who doesn’t mourn the lives of Israeli civilians, but you can find hundreds of members of Congress who have said nothing about the loss of Palestinian casualties — Palestinian civilians. And that — the fairness and the bias that our government has toward treating Israeli lives as if they are more valuable and more precious than Palestinian lives, to me, is utterly disgraceful as a Democrat and as an American. We condemn, all the progressive members of Congress have condemned anyone who has said anything supportive of Hamas in the past few days. You can’t find a statement defending Hamas from an elected official. But Lindsey Graham has said, we should burn — that we’re in a religious war and we should toast — we should tear the place apart. Max Miller said we should turn Gaza into a parking lot. Far-right Israeli officials have said there is no such thing as a Palestinian. Far-right officials in the government. So, we have dehumanizing, genocidal rhetoric from American politicians, Israeli politicians, people with power. These aren’t 19-year-old college students. These are government officials who have access to funding, to bombs, to the highest levers of government. And that’s why I think a lot of progressives and a lot of activists are frustrated is that we are held to account for dumb things — hurtful things said at rallies, but none of these politicians with actual power are being held responsible for things they’re saying about Palestinians.

SREENIVASAN: Do you think when it comes to the activists that are on college campuses that the pressure from, for example, more progressive groups on the shortcomings of the Biden administration and the critiques that you’ve articulated are going to lead more Muslim Americans to set out the election cycle when the alternative is a president who — a former president and perhaps a future president who wants to expand a Muslim ban?

SHAHID: Yes. So, on the Friday rally, which was a Friday prayer service on the on the Washington Mall, I talked to dozens of Muslim and Arab Americans, many of whom are lifelong Democrats, have voted Democrat in every election, voted for President Biden, and nearly all of them said they cannot bring themselves from an ethical or moral standpoint to vote for a president who supports a far-right leader in Israel, who doesn’t believe Palestinians are human beings, doesn’t believe they should be treated equally as Israelis. And that really scares me. I don’t think any of these voters are going to vote for Trump. I think they’re going to sit out the election, just like many people sat out 2016. I think they are also — could potentially vote for a third-party candidate like Cornel West who does have daylight — there is a lot of daylight between President Biden and Cornel West on this issue. And if Cornel West makes the ballot somehow in Michigan or Georgia, wins 1 or 2 percent, you can say that that state belongs to Trump. I don’t support that. I don’t want Trump in the White House, but that is the feeling I’m seeing across, as a Democratic strategist, as someone who supports the party, as a member of the party, that’s the trend I’m seeing across the country. Lifelong Democrats are saying they don’t think the party sees them as human beings. And so, I really urge if you — and I really urge President Biden and Democratic advisers around him to take seriously that the only way you can win Michigan in the statewide election is by holding on to the Arab and Muslim American vote. That also is true of Georgia. And people are not seeing themselves being treated with humanity, because of people with names like theirs, faces like theirs, and Gaza are being bombed indiscriminately through bombs that are being funded by this president.

SREENIVASAN: Last week, he made an address to the nation where — I want to get his quotes right — it says, the U.S. remains committed to the Palestinian people’s right to dignity and to self-determination and that he is “heartbroken by the tragic loss of Palestinian life.” I mean, he did negotiate the first shipments of aid to get into Gaza and announced that the U.S. is providing about 100 million in humanitarian assistance. Is this not what we would expect a president to do?

SHAHID: I’m sure the people in Gaza are thankful for the bandages and humanitarian aid that they’re being provided by — in part because of President Biden. And I think what they want most is for the bombs to stop dropping on them and so that bandages aren’t necessary. Look, this conflict is escalating and President Biden has no plan to de- escalate the situation. Iran has threatened to also get involved. We are moving toward a situation that is going to get into another escalated Middle Eastern conflict that Americans do not support. In response to Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. worked to get countries around the world to join the U.S. and the E.U. to sanction Russia, but many countries in the Global South refused, feeling that the U.S. and the E.U. had self-interest and has ignored and exacerbated several atrocities around the world that are similar to what Russia has committed against Ukraine. The U.S. said they were defending the rules based international order, but many countries in the Global South felt that the U.S. and Europe were pursuing their own narrow self-interest. So, when the U.S. provides $14 billion of unconditional military aid to a far-right government Israel that does not believe in a two-state solution, they openly declare their intent to commit war crimes. Well, how — what is — how is that a rules-based international order? Basically, the way it feels too much of the Global South is the U.S. stands for peace and human rights when it suits our interest, but then turns a blind eye when our ally does the exact same. So, I think this from the international perspective, I don’t think — everything President Biden has tried to do to reset the clock when it comes to the horrible things Trump did to ruin America’s image abroad, this conflict is going to do the exact same thing that all the things that Trump did to make America’s image horrible in the eyes of the — in the world, this is very similar — a very similar scale where it feels like the U.S. stands with peace when it suits our interest only and not when it involves another situation.

SREENIVASAN: And you had a State Department official last week, Josh Paul, resigned over our support for Israel. We had, I think, 411 members of Capitol Hill staff, both Jewish and Muslim sign a letter, you know, basically demanding an immediate cease fire in Gaza. Do you think that — do you hear from — is — are these actions effective?

SHAHID: I think they’re very effective. And you know, if you are a government official watching this, you are the main reason why — President Biden has even said a word to Netanyahu to demand humanitarian aid. The people in the White House and the people in Congress, the staffers who are standing up and saying, enough is enough, is the main reason why we’re moving this forward. But I will say, I’m very concerned that my Democratic Party leadership has its head in the sand when it comes to the 2024 election. The path to the White House runs through Michigan. And Michigan runs through Dearborn and Detroit, which are the two of the largest Arab American and Muslim American cities in the country. And just on Friday, Representative Debbie Dingell, who’s not Debbie Dingell, who’s not a leftist, who’s not a major progressive, said she’s represented that community for years. And she said, she’s concerned about the 2024 election. I know how important it is to defeat Trump as a Muslim American, as a Democratic strategist, but the blank check of violence our president is providing Bibi Netanyahu, Muslim Americans oppose it, Arab Americans oppose it, young people oppose it. And so, Michigan — just like there was low Democratic turnout for Hillary Clinton in 2016, what I am seeing is there will be low Democratic turnout for Joe Biden in 2024 in the same state where — that Hillary lost.

SREENIVASAN: Is there a generational gap here in – I mean, it seems President Biden is from a different era of politics where the actions that he’s taking, the approaches that he’s taking are probably consistent with the way the Congress functioned, the way that governments functioned with each other for the majority of his life, right? And you see maybe a different generation of not just politicians, but the electorate who have a different set of expectations, like the ones that you’re articulating?

SHAHID: I think that’s a big part of it. Look, but it’s also a pre-9/11 thing when it came to, Ronald Reagan — people forget this, but Ronald Reagan, President George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton held the Israeli government way more accountable than anyone post 9/11 did. I think there’s been this fear and culture of Islamophobia that has pervaded since 9/11 where we cannot treat the Palestinian people and their authorities in the West Bank, the Palestinian authority with equal footing as the Israelis. On the voter level, there’s absolutely a generational thing as this millennial generation that opposed the Iraq War in 2003 comes to political age, comes to voting age, the Democratic Party is fundamentally different than it was 15 years ago. And I think President Biden, his chief of staff, the advisers around him are thinking about this Democratic Party as if it was from 15 years ago. But look, Arab and Muslim Americans are now civically engaged, are politically engaged. We didn’t have a Rashida Tlaib 15 years ago. We didn’t have an Ilhan Omar. And that — having those political representatives, having that political voice makes more people more courageous to step out more courageous to protest. I remember after 9/11, like, so many Muslim families, even though they’re experiencing hate crimes or bigotry, were afraid to speak out, were afraid to protest, were afraid to rally because of the chilling culture because of the Patriot Act. Now, you have a new generation, many of whom were born in this country, who are inspired by the civil rights movement, are inspired by the Black Lives Matter movement, and are saying, no, I am an American, I deserve my voice to be heard, and I am going to protest my government, and I’m not going to be afraid. And I think that that is the reason you’re seeing so many people, thousands of Jews, thousands of Arabs, thousands of Muslims, thousands of young people oppose this. The vast majority of voters under 45 do not support sending Israel more weapons without any strings attached to address the political grievances of the Palestinian people. And if that doesn’t happen, you can say goodbye to Michigan.

SREENIVASAN: You had 13 Democratic members of Congress introduce a resolution to call for a ceasefire, whether or not that is allowed to get to a full vote, et cetera, and that idea to be expressed in the full House, how does this rift end up manifesting?

SHAHID: I think this will be a deep rift going forward. You know, many people have reached out to me and said, you know, Waleed, like a year from now, who knows what happens. But people will remember that this president took five days to call the family of Wadea Al-Fayoume. People will remember that the Capitol — the members of Congress held a bipartisan vigil for only Israeli civilian, mourning only Israeli civilian deaths and not Palestinian deaths. We have a member of Congress, Josh Gottheimer, who according to “Politico,” according to “The Intercept,” said that all Muslims are to collectively blame for what happened in — to Israeli civilians from Hamas. Not a single member of Congress and Democratic Party leadership condemned Representative Gottheimer. And when you have — when you — this comes back to the fundamental point, are Palestinian lives equal to Israeli lives in the eyes of our government? And until that question is addressed, you will continue to see this rift deepen on the elected level, on the staff level, on the voter level. Morale is — as you’ve seen resignations, as you’ve seen letters across government bodies in this country, morale is incredibly low if you work in government right now. And that will continue to deepen unless people feel like they are treated with equal respect equal humanity as Jewish Americans, as Jewish Israelis, who also deserve dignity and respect and humanity. But I have so many people in my life who are Democratic strategists, progressive strategists, government officials who feel sick to their stomach showing up to work because they’re being silenced, they’re not being treated equally, they’re being kicked out of rooms, they’re not being allowed to attend meetings. They’re being told they’re Hamas sympathizers, that because they’re Muslim, they don’t see — or they’re Arab, they can’t see this correctly. And, you know, this is what I mean, like, 15 years ago, we didn’t have this level of Muslim American or Arab Americans in government offices as much as we do now. And so, I just think the Democratic Party is fundamentally shifted, but I don’t think President Biden’s thinking about the party has shifted.

SREENIVASAN: Democratic Strategist Waleed Shahid, thanks so much for joining us.

SHAHID: Thank you so much.