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>>> HELLO, EVERYONE, AND WELCOME TO AMANPOUR & CO.
HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP.
>>> THE WIDENING MIDDLE EAST WAR IS CREATING A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN LEBANON AS ISRAEL RAMPS UP ITS STRIKES AGAINST IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH.
THE LEBANESE JUSTICE MINISTER JOINS ME FOR AN EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW.
>>> THEN BOTH IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES CLAIM TO BE LAUNCHING THEIR "MOST INTENSE" OPERATIONS YET.
IRANIAN POLITICAL ANALYST MOSTAFA DANESHGAR AND REVOLUTIONARY GUARD SCHOLAR MARYAM ALEMZADEH JOIN ME.
>>> PLUS.
>> THEY ARE DEFINITELY LEANING TOWARDS AN IN AND OUT SCENARIO.
EASIER SAID THAN DONE.
I'VE COVERED THE MIDDLE EAST FOR 15 YEARS AND KNOW THESE CONFLICTS CAN SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL ALMOST OVERNIGHT.
THIS IS ALREADY LOOKING THAT WAY.
>> VIVIAN SALAMA SPEAKS TO WALTER ISAACSON ABOUT THE DANGERS OF AMERICA GETTING INTO A WAR WITH NO CLEAR PLAN TO END IT.
♪ >> AMANPOUR & COMPANY IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT, JIM ATTWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS, CANDACE KING WEIR, THE SYLVIA A. AND SIMON B. POYTA PROGRAMMING ENDOWMENT TO FIGHT ANTI-SEMITISM, THE STRAUSS FAMILY FOUNDATION.
THE PETER G. PETERSON AND JOAN GANZ COONEY FUND, CHARLES ROSENBLUM, MONIQUE SCHOEN WARSHAW, KOO AND PATRICIA YUEN, BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION BY VIEWERS LIKE YOU.
THANK YOU.
>>> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE.
I'M CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR IN LONDON.
>>> THE U.S./ISRAEL WAR ON IRAN IS EXPANDING AND REGIONAL LEADERS AND AID AGENCIES ARE WARNING HUMANITARIAN DISASTER IS LOOMING AS WELL.
IN IRAN ISRAEL HIT A RESIDENTIAL AREA IN THE CAPITAL OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS BASES IN THE NORTH.
THE U.N.
SAYS IT IS SERIOUSLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE HEALTH OF THE PEOPLE THERE AFTER STRIKES ON TEHRAN'S OIL DEPOTS THIS WEEKEND LED TO TOXIC OIL-FILLED RAIN FALLING.
THERE WERE MORE MASS EVACUATIONS FROM THERE AND NEARLY 700,000 PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY BEEN DISPLACED.
THE LEBANESE GOVERNMENT HAS REPORTEDLY ASKED ISRAEL TO PAUSE ITS ATTACKS AND START SOME NEGOTIATIONS, BUT ISRAEL IT SAYS HAS REFUSED.
AS THIS WAR EXPANDS, GLOBAL TRADE AND ENERGY ARE ALSO UNDER INCREASING THREAT.
THE U.S.
SAYS IT HAS DESTROYED IRANIAN SHIPS BEING USED TO LAY MINES IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A VITAL ROUTE FOR GLOBAL TRADE WHICH USUALLY TRANSPORTS A FIFTH OF THE WORLD'S OIL.
IT'S A RESOUNDING MESSAGE FROM IRAN THAT IN THIS ASYMMETRICAL WAR ATTACKS BY THE U.S.
AND ISRAEL WILL NOT GO UNANSWERED.
NOW ADEL NASSAR IS LEBANON'S JUSTICE MINISTER AND JOINS ME FROM BEIRUT.
MINISTER, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.
>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.
>> OKAY.
THERE'S A BIT OF A DELAY, BUT I'M SURE EVERYBODY UNDERSTANDS THAT.
CAN I FIRST ASK YOU TO GIVE ME SOME CLARITY ON WHAT I SAID WAS YOUR GOVERNMENT ASKING ISRAEL TO HAVE SOME NEGOTIATIONS OVER THIS AND ISRAEL SAYING NOT RIGHT NOW?
CAN YOU FILL ME IN ON THAT?
>> THERE WAS A DECISION FROM THE COUNCIL OF MINISTER AND THIS DECISION OPENED THE DOOR FOR NEGOTIATIONS FOR THE TIME BEING.
I'M NOT AWARE PERSONALLY FROM ANY POSITIVE ANSWER REGARDING A POSSIBLE NEGOTIATION.
>> OKAY.
SO WHAT WOULD YOU SAY IS THE STATE OF THE WAR THEY SAY AGAINST HEZBOLLAH IN YOUR COUNTRY?
WHAT IS THE HUMANITARIAN FALLOUT?
IS HEZBOLLAH STILL STANDING AND FIGHTING?
TELL ME WHERE WE ARE A FEW DAYS INTO THIS WAR ON YOUR COUNTRY.
>> OH, AS A RESULT OF THE CURRENT WAR, THERE ARE AROUND 570 KILLED, MORE THAN 1,400 INJURED.
THE NUMBER OF DISPLACED, YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT 800,000, BUT IN REALITY THESE ARE ONLY THE ONES THAT HAVE BEEN REGISTERED AND I FORESEE THAT THE NUMBER IS REALLY HIGHER THAN THIS.
THERE ARE, THEREFORE, REAL DRAMATIC SITUATION IN LEBANON AND THE CIVILIANS ARE SUFFERING A LOT.
THE COUNTRY IS SUFFERING FOR HUGE DAMAGES AND THE SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED AND THE CURRENT SITUATION IS VERY DIFFICULT.
>> SO UNICEF ALSO SAYS THAT ISRAEL STRIKES HAVE KILLED MONTH ARE THAN TEN CHILDREN SO FAR EVERY DAY.
LET ME PLAY FOR YOU THIS DISPLACED WOMAN FROM SOUTH LEBANON, WHAT SHE'S SAYING ABOUT HER SITUATION.
HERE'S HER WORDS IN TRANSLATION.
>> THERE WAS SUCH A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SITTING COMFORTABLY IN YOUR OWN HOME COOKING YOUR FOOD WHEN NO ONE TELLS YOU TO GET UP AND LEAVE, WHEN NO ONE SPEAKS HARSHLY TO YOU.
NOW THE DIFFERENCE IS VERY BIG, VERY BIG.
DO NOT LOOK AT ME.
THE DIFFERENCE IS HUGE.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SLEEPING IN YOUR OWN BED AND SLEEPING ON THE GROUND.
>> SO HOW ARE YOU COPING, YOU AS A GOVERNMENT, COPING WITH THE HUMANITARIAN CRISIS?
WHAT CAN YOU DO?
CAN YOU SUPPORT PEOPLE LIKE HER IN THE STREET?
>> YOU CAN'T IMAGINE.
IT IS VERY DIFFICULT.
EVERYTHING WAS VERY SUDDEN.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE GOVERNMENT HAS TO COPE WITH A HUGE NUMBER OF DISPLACED.
THE GOVERNMENT IS PROVIDING SHELTERS, PROVIDING 100,000, IF I'M NOT MISTAKEN, OF HOT MEALS TO THE DISPLACED PER DAY.
THE SITUATION IS VERY DIFFICULT BECAUSE THE RESOURCES ARE NOT VERY HIGH.
HOWEVER, DESPITE ALL THESE PROBLEMS THERE IS A FULL MOBILIZATION OF THE GOVERNMENT IN ORDER TO ADDRESS THE NEEDS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
THE NEEDS ARE HUGE AND THE PROBLEMS ARE HUGE.
HOWEVER, THE GOVERNMENT IS WORKING DAY AND NIGHT TO BE ABLE TO COPE WITH THIS HUGE DIFFICULTY.
>> THIS, OF COURSE, IS ON TOP OF THE LAST ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH WAR WHERE APPARENTLY 4,000 PEOPLE WERE KILLED IN LEBANON.
THE WORLD BANK SAYS IT CAUSED $11 BILLION IN DAMAGE TO YOUR COUNTRY AND MORE THAN 1 MILLION WERE ALREADY DISPLACED, BUT LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT THE CENTRAL ISSUE HERE AND THAT IS THE CONTINUED ACTIVITY OF HEZBOLLAH AND HEZBOLLAH FIRING TARGETS INSIDE ISRAEL IN THE OPENING DAYS OF ISRAEL AND THE U.S.
WAR ON IRAN.
NOW YOUR GOVERNMENT IS TAKING QUITE A HARD LINE ON HEZBOLLAH.
YOUR PRESIDENT HAS SAID THERE'S A BAN -- HE'S ANNOUNCED A BAN ON ALL HEZBOLLAH MILITARY ACTIONS, BUT THEY'RE STILL FIGHTING.
SO WHAT CAN YOU DO?
FIRST OF ALL, WHAT CAN YOU DO TO STOP THEM RIGHT NOW?
>> WHAT IS IMPORTANT IN THE BEGINNING IS TO EXPLAIN A LITTLE BIT THAT AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME WHERE HEZBOLLAH WAS INSTALLING ALL ITS MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE THIS GOVERNMENT WAS APPOINTED ONE YEAR AGO AND THIS GOVERNMENT TOOK FIRST DECISION THROUGH THE GOVERNMENT DECLARATION THAT HAS BEEN PRESENTED TO THE PARLIAMENT WHERE IT WAS CLEARLY STATED THAT THE MONOPOLY OF THE STRENGTHS MUST BE GIVEN UNDER THE STATES AND THIS IS A CONDITION TO BUILD THE STATES.
SO THIS FIRST DECISION WAS TAKEN THROUGH THIS DECLARATION AND THE DECLARATION WAS APPROVED BY ALL THE MINISTERS, INCLUDING THE MINISTERS CLOSE TO HEZBOLLAH, AND THIS DECISION WAS ALSO PRESENTED TO THE PARLIAMENT AND THE GOVERNMENT WAS GRANTED THE CONFIDENCE OF THE PARLIAMENT WITH MPs PERTAINING TO HEZBOLLAH THE GOVERNMENT IS GRANTED THE CONFIDENCE.
THEN THE GOVERNMENT TOOK ANOTHER DECISION TO START IMPLEMENTING THE MONOPOLY OF THE IN THE HANDS OF THE STATES THROUGH THE ARMY'S ACTION.
THE ARMY PROVIDED A PLAN AND THE PLAN WAS ONGOING BEFORE THIS WAR ERUPTED.
>> OKAY.
>> AND ALSO AFTER THAT THERE WAS STRIKES COMING FROM ISRAEL AND ISRAEL WAS TAKING AS IT PROTECTS THE PRESENCE OF THE MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE OF HEZBOLLAH, BUT THE POSITION OF THE STATE IS THAT IN ORDER TO BUILD FOR INTERNAL REASONS AND FOR THE INTEREST OF LEBANON, IT WAS VERY IMPORTANT TO IMPLEMENT THE MONOPOLY OF THE WEAPONS.
HEZBOLLAH WAS COMPLICATING THE PROCESS.
HEZBOLLAH DID NOT COOPERATE AS MUCH AS IT SHOULD IN THIS PROCESS AND BY NOT COOPERATING IT WAS CLEAR THAT HEZBOLLAH WAS OFFERING ALSO PRETEXT FOR ISRAEL TO STRIKE ON LEBANON AND WHEN HEZBOLLAH TOOK THE UNILATERAL DECISION TO LAUNCH ROCKETS AGAINST ISRAEL, THEY GAVE ALSO THE PRETEXT TO ISRAEL TO START THE WAR.
SO WE WERE IN THE PROCESS OF STRIKES AND NOW WE ARE IN A FULL WAR.
IT IS CLEAR THAT IN ORDER FOR LEBANON TO BE ABLE TO FACE ISRAEL IN THE DIPLOMATIC OR IN DIPLOMACY, LEBANON NEEDS TO HAVE THE DECISION OF FULL PEACE AND TO HAVE THE MONOPOLY OF STRENGTH WITHIN LEBANON.
THIS IS A REQUIREMENT THAT WE CONSIDER AS GOVERNMENT NEEDED FOR THE SAKE OF LEBANON, FOR THE INTERESTS OF ALL THE POPULATION OF LEBANON, AND WE CONSIDER THAT HEZBOLLAH'S ACTION IS NOT FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO BE ABLE TO TAKE ALL APPROPRIATE ACTIONS TO DEFEND LEBANON'S INTERESTS.
>> OKAY.
SO YOU'RE MAKING A PASSIONATE CASE FOR YOUR SOVEREIGNTY AND YOUR DOMINANCE AS THE STATE RATHER THAN BEING SIDETRACKED AND DRAGGED INTO ALL THESE WARS BY A LOCAL MILITIA, IE, HEZBOLLAH, BUT THE THING IS YOU YOURSELF CALLED FOR THE ARREST AND PROSECUTION OF THE SECRETARY GENERAL, BUT YOUR CABINET CHOSE NOT TO MOVE FORWARD WITH YOUR PROPOSAL.
WHY DID YOU CALL FOR HIS ARREST AND WHY DOESN'T YOUR CABINET SUPPORT THAT CALL IF YOU SAY THE GOVERNMENT IS, YOU KNOW, UNITED FOR, AS YOU CALL IT, A MONOPOLY, BUT I SUPPOSE TO BE A SOVEREIGN STATE AND NOT GET DRAGGED AROUND BY HEZBOLLAH?
>> TODAY IN THE GOVERNMENT THE DECISION TO HAVE THE MONOPOLY OF THE STRENGTHS IS A WORKABLE DECISION.
THE PROBLEM IS WE'VE BEEN SUFFERING AN ACCUMULATION OF PROBLEMS FOR 30 YEARS.
SO TODAY THE GOVERNMENT IS TAKING THE APPROPRIATE STEPS IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE THE FULL SOVEREIGNTY OF THE GOVERNMENT AND THE STATE AND THEREFORE, TO HAVE -- TO DISMANTLE THE HEZBOLLAH MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE.
DESPITE THAT IT IS CLEAR, ALSO, THAT THE ARMY STARTED THE PROCESS AND THE GOVERNMENT WILL CONTINUE STEP BY STEP TO GET TO THE APPROPRIATE RESULT WHICH IS I SAY IT AGAIN, NOT TO SERVE ANY FOREIGN INTEREST, BUT TO BUILD OUR OWN STATES AND ANYTHING HEZBOLLAH COULD DO TO PREVENT THE STATE TO BE BUILT IN THE INTEREST OF ALL THE CITIZENS WILL HAVE TO BE OPPOSED.
NOW WE CAN STUDY THE STEPS TO BE TAKEN IN ORDER TO MAKE SURE THAT YOU ARE TAKING THE APPROPRIATE STEPS AND TO SUPPORT, ALSO, OUR LEBANESE ARMY BECAUSE THE LEBANESE ARMY IS ONE ESSENTIAL ELEMENT TO BE ABLE OR TO SAY EVEN THE ESSENTIAL ELEMENT IN ORDER TO BE ABLE TO HAVE THE SOVEREIGNTY OF THE STATE OVER ALL THE TERRITORY.
>> OKAY.
SO I HEAR YOU.
LET ME JUST ASK -- >> WE ARE COMMITTED TO THAT FIRST TO THE LEBANESE CITIZENS BECAUSE IT IS THE WAY TO PROTECT ALL LEBANESE CITIZENS WHEREVER ARE THEIR POLITICAL BELIEFS, WHEREVER THERE ARE THEIR RELIGIOUS BELIEFS BECAUSE AT THE END OF THE DAY THE STATE IS TO PROTECT ALL THE CITIZENS AND SERVE ALL THE CITIZENS.
>> YOU JUST TALKED ABOUT THE ARMY AND SOVEREIGNTY OF THE STATE.
WE HEAR A REPORT LAST WEEK THE ARMY ARRESTED THREE HEZBOLLAH MEMBERS WHO WERE FOUND TRANSPORTING WEAPONS AND A MILITARY JUDGE, IE, AN ARMY JUDGE, FINED EACH ABOUT $10 AND THEN RELEASED THEM WITHOUT JAIL.
IS IT JUST TOUGH TALK FROM THE ARMY AND APPARENTLY ACCORDING TO CNN'S PRODUCER, YOU'RE THE ONE WHO ORDERED AN INVESTIGATION INTO THIS JUDGE WHO ISSUED THE SENTENCE.
SO WHAT'S WRONG WITH THAT PICTURE?
AS YOU SAY, YOU'RE CAUGHT BETWEEN ISRAEL AND HEZBOLLAH AND LEBANON AND THE STATE SUFFERS AND THE PEOPLE SUFFER.
>> OKAY.
AS YOU MAY UNDERSTAND, AS A MINISTER OF JUSTICE, I WILL NOT COMMENT ON JUDICIAL DECISION AND I WILL ALLOW THE PROPER INSTITUTIONS TO ADDRESS WHATEVER IS WITHIN THEIR OWN JURISDICTION.
WHAT I CAN TELL YOU FROM THE READING OF THE DECISION AND PUTTING ASIDE THE IMPORTANCE OR NOT OF THE SENTENCE IS THAT THIS DECISION CONSIDERED THAT WHETHER THE PERSON HOLDING WEAPONS PERTAINS TO HEZBOLLAH OR NOT, HE IS IN BREACH OF THE LAW AND THIS MEANS THAT THE DECISION NOT IN TERMS OF THE SENTENCE AND WHETHER IT IS AN IMPORTANT OR NOT CONDEMNATION, I DON'T WANT TO COMMENT ON THAT AND I WILL NOT COMMENT ON THAT.
>> OKAY.
>> HOWEVER, FROM THE DECISION THE PERSONS WHO WERE ARRESTED, THERE IS THE ISSUE THAT THEY BELONG TO HEZBOLLAH AS BEING A LINE OF DEFENSE AND DESPITE THAT THE DECISION WAS TO CONDEMN WHATEVER IS THE AMOUNT OR THE TERMS OF THE CONDITION, I DON'T HAVE A COMMENT TO MAKE IN THE MEDIA ABOUT THAT.
HOWEVER, WHAT I CAN TELL YOU IS NOW IT IS CLEAR FROM THE COURT DECISION THAT ONE CANNOT RAISE THE FACT THAT HE CONTAINED TO HEZBOLLAH IS ENTITLED TO HOLD WEAPONS OR TO TRANSPORT WEAPONS.
>> CAN I ASK YOU PERSONALLY DO YOU FEEL SAFE TALKING OUT?
HEZBOLLAH IS KNOWN TO EXERT ITS OWN JUSTICE LET'S SAY, ITS OWN WHATEVER YOU WANT TO CALL IT -- I DON'T WANT TO USE BAD WORDS HERE -- AGAINST PEOPLE WHO DISAGREE AND SPEAK OUT AGAINST THEM.
YOU SAW WHAT HAPPENED TO THE PRIME MINISTER.
DO YOU FEEL SAFE TAKING THEM ON?
>> FIRST OF ALL, I WILL CERTAINLY NOT USE THE WORD JUSTICE OR ITS OWN JUSTICE.
I THINK WE SHOULDN'T PUT THE NAME JUSTICE IN YOUR SENTENCE IF YOU ALLOW ME TO SAY THAT.
>> NO, BUT YOU'RE RIGHT.
I MISSPOKE USING THAT WORD.
>> OKAY.
ON THE OTHER HAND, LET'S SAY THAT WHEN WE ARE IN A SPECIFIC POSITION, WE HAVE TO TAKE THE STAND WE BELIEVE IN IN THE INTEREST OF THE STATE AND AGAIN, I CAN TELL YOU THAT TODAY WHAT HEZBOLLAH IS DOING IS IN FULL BREACH OF THE LAW, IN FULL BREACH OF THE COMMITMENTS OF THE GOVERNMENT TOWARDS ITS OWN POPULATION, ITS OWN PEOPLE TO STOP HAVING A PARALLEL MOVEMENT MAKING DECISIONS REGARDING WAR AND PEACE AND ENGAGING OR DRAGGING THE FULL COUNTRY INTO REGIONAL CONFLICTS.
IF YOU WANT TO ASSESS INTO A POLITICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON DECLARATIONS MADE AND POSITIONS TAKEN, IT SEEMS AS HEZBOLLAH IS ACTING AS IF HE WANTS TO BE IN A FRONT POSITION IN THE REGIONAL WAR BETWEEN ISRAEL AND THE U.S.
ON ONE SIDE AND IRAN ON THE OTHER SIDE.
>> OKAY.
>> WHILE THE INTEREST OF LEBANON AND ALL THE PEOPLE OF LEBANON IS TO STAY AWAY FROM REGIONAL CONFLICTS.
WE ARE A SMALL COUNTRY.
WE ARE A COUNTRY HAVING VARIOUS MEMBERS OF COMMUNITIES.
WE CAN BE A MODEL OF COEXISTENCE AND WE SHOULD BE A MODEL OF COEXISTENCE AND WE SHOULD BE A MODEL OF PEACE FOR THE WORLD AND NOT TO BE DRAGGED INTO THE WARS OF THE OTHERS.
>> OKAY.
I WANT TO END ON WHAT THEIR ACTION MEANS FOR YOU AS A SMALL COUNTRY THAT SHOULD BE A MODEL OF PEACE BECAUSE RIGHT NOW ISRAELI OFFICIALS ARE WARNING THEIR ACTION IN LEBANON COULD EVEN CONTINUE BEYOND THE WAR IN IRAN IF THAT EVER ENDS.
THIS IS WHAT ISRAEL'S FINANCE MINISTER AND WELL KNOWN HARD LINER, EXTREME RIGHTIST SPEAKING IN NORTHERN ISRAEL TODAY SAID.
TAKE A LISTEN NOW.
>> WE ARE NOW ON THE NORTHERN BORDER AFTER THE IDF INSTRUCTED ALL RESIDENTS OF THE AREA TO EVACUATE.
YOU WANT TO BRING HELL UPON US?
YOU BROUGHT HELL UPON YOURSELVES.
OUR NORTHERN RESIDENTS WILL LIVE IN QUIET, PEACE, AND SECURITY.
>> RIGHT.
WELL, THAT'S A COUPLE DAYS AGO AND HE'S ESSENTIALLY SAYING YOU'RE GOING TO -- YOU KNOW, THE SOUTHERN PART OF BEIRUT THERE COULD LOOK LIKE KHAN YOUNIS WHICH WAS LEVELED BY THE ISRAELIS DURING THEIR GAZA CAMPAIGN.
DO YOU WORRY?
>> I'M CERTAINLY WORRIED AND I'M CERTAINLY CONCERNED.
IT IS CLEAR THAT I'M NOT EXPECTING ISRAEL TO TAKE NICE POSITIONS TOWARDS LEBANON.
THEY NEVER DID.
IT'S NOT THE ISSUE.
THE REAL PROBLEM IS THAT WE HAVE TO CONTROL OUR OWN COUNTRY AND IT IS NOT ACCEPTABLE THAT THE LEBANESE MOVEMENT, WHATEVER ARE ITS FORMER LINKS TO OTHER COUNTRIES, IRAN, NAMELY, SHOULD STOP HAVING THESE LINKS AND SHOULD ACT TOTALLY DIFFERENTLY.
THE POSITION OF THE GOVERNMENT OF LEBANON IS CLEARLY TO BAN ANY MILITARY OUTSIDE THE STATE.
I AM SAYING THAT BECAUSE IT IS OUR DUTY TO PROTECT OUR PEOPLE, OUR POPULATION AND MOREOVER, MY DIPLOMATIC MOVE LEBANON WANTS TO MAKE, IN ORDER TO BE EFFICIENT, LEBANON MUST CONTROL THE RIGHT TO GO TO WAR OR TO GO TO PEACE.
THIS HAS TO BE IN THE HANDS OF THE GOVERNMENT OF LEBANON AND CERTAINLY NOT IN THE HAND OF A MOVEMENT THAT IS ACTING UNILATERALLY WITHOUT TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE INTEREST OF ALL THE COUNTRIES.
>> ALL RIGHT.
MINISTER ADEL NASSAR, THANK YOU VERY MUCH INDEED FOR JOINING US ON THAT.
>>> TEHRAN SAYS IT HAS LAUNCHED ITS "MOST INTENSE" AND HEAVIEST OPERATION SINCE THIS WAR BEGAN.
IT HAS REPORTEDLY BEEN LAYING MINES IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING THE GLOBAL WATERWAY WHICH IS CRUCIAL FOR THE WORLD'S OIL ECONOMY.
AT THE SAME TIME PRESIDENT TRUMP'S FORMER IRAN ADVISER ELLIOTT ABRAMS TELLS ME THE WAR WILL EITHER END WITH A POPULAR UPRISING OR WITHIN A COUPLE OF WEEKS WHEN PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCES THAT ALL HIS OBJECTIVES HAVE BEEN MET WHICH ABRAMS SAYS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO NOW AND TRUMP HIMSELF TODAY TOLD AXIOS THE WAR WILL END "SOON."
THIS IS ALL HAPPENING AS IRAN'S NEW SUPREME LEADER MOJTABA KHAMENEI HAS STILL NOT BEEN SEEN IN PUBLIC DAYS AFTER BEING APPOINTED.
SOURCES SAY THAT HE WAS INJURED ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE WAR AND HAS A FRACTURED FOOT AND MINOR INJURIES.
FOR MORE ON THE SYSTEM DRIVING IRAN'S WAR STRATEGY, I'M JOINED BY THE IRANIAN POLITICAL ANALYST MOSTAFA DANESHGAR AND MARYAM ALEMZADEH, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR IN HISTORY AND POLITICS OF IRAN AT OXFORD UNIVERSITY AND AN EXPERT ON IRAN'S ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS.
WELCOME TO BOTH OF YOU.
I WANT TO ASK YOU FIRST, MS.
ALEMZADEH PROFESSOR, BECAUSE WE JUST HEARD FROM LEBANON'S MINISTER OF JUSTICE AND HE BASICALLY TOLD ME THAT HE BELIEVES IRAN WILL FIGHT TOWARDS THE LAST LEBANESE FOR THEIR OWN INTERESTS AND I ASKED HIM WHETHER THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD HAD BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY, YOU KNOW, DIMINISHED AND HE SAID NO.
SO WHAT DO YOU THINK THE STRENGTH RIGHT NOW OF THE IRGC IS.
>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.
I ALMOST FULLY AGREE.
THE STRENGTH OF THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD HAS NOT DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY BECAUSE THIS ORGANIZATION WAS ESTABLISHED AND GREW IN A WAY THAT WAS NOT RELIANT ON ITS TOP LEADERSHIP.
THE DECAPITATION BOTH OF AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI AND THE TOP MILITARY COMMANDERS HAS LITTLE EFFECT, IF ANY, ON THE VERY VAST NETWORK, THE CAPILLARY, THE PENETRATED NETWORK, OF BRANCHES AND STATIONS AND BASES THAT THE IRGC BESIEGED TOGETHER WITH OTHER STATE-SPONSORED ORGANIZATIONS HAVE.
THEY HAVE BEEN BUILT AND TRAINED TO ACT SPONTANEOUSLY, INDEPENDENTLY.
THEY ARE GOOD AT OPERATING AD HOC, THRIVING IN CHAOS AND THE HISTORY OF THE IRGC ACTUALLY APPROVES THAT AND I ALSO AGREE WITH THE JUSTICE MINISTER THAT IRAN -- THE REPUBLIC DOES NOT CARE ABOUT THE LEBANESE CAUSE, THE PALESTINIAN CAUSE.
IT IS ALL A TACTIC FOR SELF- PRESERVATION.
>> WELL, THAT'S VERY INTERESTING.
SO TO YOU, MOSTAFA DANESHGAR, DO YOU THINK THAT THE AIMS YOU WERE HOPING FOR AND CERTAINLY MANY IN THE DIASPORA AND ELSEWHERE INSIDE IRAN THAT THIS ACTION WHICH MANY HAVE CELEBRATED INSIDE IRAN WILL LEAD TO AN UPRISING?
I ASK THAT BECAUSE, AS YOU KNOW, I ASKED ELLIOTT ABRAMS.
I SAID HOW IS THIS GOING TO END?
HE SAID, EITHER WITH AN UPRISING OR WITH TRUMP DECLARING HE'S WON AND ENDING THE WAR.
WHAT ARE YOU THINKING RIGHT NOW?
>> HELLO AND THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
I THINK TWO LINES IN PARALLEL ARE WEAKENING THE IRANIAN REGIME NOW.
FIRST IS THE AIR CAMPAIGN THAT IS HANDLED BY U.S.
AND ISRAEL.
IN PARALLEL PEOPLE AND PROTESTERS IN THE VOTE, THEY CAN UPRISE AT ANY MOMENT.
I DISAGREE THAT IRGC IS NOT WEAKENING NOW.
THEY ARE WEAKENING AND WE CAN SEE THE INDICATORS.
YOU CAN SEE THEY CANNOT DEFEND THE AIR AND THE U.S.
AND ISRAEL ARMY CAN TARGET WHEREVER THEY WANT, WHATEVER THEY WANT INSIDE IRAN.
THEY TARGETED IRANIAN SUPREME LEADER EASILY, EASIER THAN ANY OTHER THING.
SO I THINK THIS CAMPAIGN, THIS AIR CAMPAIGN, BESIDES THE PEOPLE, THE PROTESTERS AND THE PEOPLE THEY ARE AND ANGER FROM THEIR COUNTRY FROM THE MASSACRE THAT HAPPENED IN JANUARY 8th AND 9th.
SO THEY WILL AT SOME MOMENT THEY CAN TAKE OVER THE GOVERNMENT.
THIS CAN LEAD TO THE COLLAPSE AND THE POLITICAL SYSTEM, POLITICAL STRUCTURE AND LEAD TO PEOPLE TO FEEL THEY ARE SECURE AND THEY CAN TAKE THE PROTEST TO THE STREET ONE MORE TIME, ONE MORE TIME.
SO I THINK THERE'S A BIG CHANCE FOR THAT.
I'M NOT TOTALLY SURE AND THERE IS NOT CERTAINTY IN POLITICS, AS YOU KNOW, BUT THIS AIR CAMPAIGN MAKE THE REPRESSIVE APPARATUS OF IRANIAN REGIME, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC, WEAKER THAN ANY OTHER TIME.
>> YES.
I'M SURE THAT IS TRUE.
IT'S DEFINITELY BEEN WEAKENED AND SLAMMED FROM SOME OF THE MOST POWERFUL COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD AND IRAN WAS NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO WIN AGAINST ANY AMERICAN ISRAELI CAMPAIGN.
HOW DO YOU THINK THE WEAKENING WILL AFFECT THE PROSECUTION OF THIS WAR AND THEY'RE STILL BEING VERY DEFIANT.
LEADERS THERE ARE SAYING NO, WE'RE NOT GOING TO NEGOTIATE AND WE'RE GOING TO CAUSE IRAN A LOT OF -- RATHER, THE WEST AND THE WORLD A LOT OF ECONOMIC PAIN?
>> NO.
I TOTALLY AGREE THAT I DID NOT MEAN TO UNDERMINE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE AIR CAMPAIGN.
NECESSARY.
THE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM MIGHT BE DOWN.
A LOT OF IRAN'S CLASSIC ARMY AND NAVAL FORCE AND A LOT OF THE IRGC BOATS MAY BE DOWN, BUT IN MY VIEW THAT'S NEVER BEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE IRGC.
THE STRENGTH OF THE IRGC HAS BEEN THE STRENGTH INTO THE CORNER INTO ITS FURTHEST CORNERS AND THAT'S STILL INTACT TO A LARGE EXTENT.
THAT'S WHY I'M NOT OPTIMISTIC IF THIS WAR LEADS TO A STATE OF COLLAPSE AND IF THESE TEMPORARY CEASEFIRE WHERE BOMBS ARE NOT FALLING AND PEOPLE CAN COME OUT OF SURVIVAL MODE AND TAKE ON THE STREETS AGAIN WHICH IN MY OPINION HAS ALSO -- THE LIKELIHOOD OF IT HAS ALSO BEEN REDUCED BY THE WAR.
EVEN IF THAT HAPPENS, IT'S NOT GOING TO BE AN EASY TAKEOVER FOR THE PROTESTERS WHO I BELIEVE ARE THE MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION NOW BECAUSE THE WEAPONS ARE STILL IN THE HANDS OF THE IRGC AND THEY DO NOT NEED THE MORE ADVANCED EQUIPMENT THAT HAS BEEN DESTROYED TO SOME EXTENT IN ORDER TO REPRESS A POPULAR UPRISING AND MOJTABA KHAMENEI'S APPOINTMENT, I THINK IT FIRST SIGNALS THE HARD LINER POSE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE WAR, BUT I THINK WHEN AND IF THIS WAR ENDS, IT'S NOT NECESSARILY A SIGNIFIER OF HARD LINER POLICY.
HE IS BASICALLY THE IRGC'S PERSON.
HE OBEYS THE IRGC, NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND.
SO IF THE IRGC DECIDES TO TAKE A MORE PRAGMATIC, MORE CONCILIATORY ROUTE, IT DOES, I THINK MOJTABA KHAMENEI WILL NOBODY HURDLE TO THAT.
>> WOW, THAT'S INTERESTING.
PROFESSOR DANESHGAR, I HEAR WHAT YOU'RE SAYING.
ARE YOU CONCERNED THAT, FOR INSTANCE, THE HEAD OF THE NATIONAL POLICE AND SOME IRGC COMMANDERS HAVE GONE ON STATE MEDIA AND ESSENTIALLY OVER THESE LAST CERTAIN TWO WEEKS OF WAR HAVE TOLD PEOPLE TO STAY AT HOME HAVE INDICATED THAT THEY WOULD BE TRAITORS BETRAYING THEIR COUNTRY AT THE BEHEST OF WHAT THEY CALL ENEMY ARMIES AND SAY THAT THESE SHOOT-TO-KILL ORDERS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE?
WHAT DOES THAT SAY TO YOU ABOUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF PEOPLE BEING ABLE TO COME OUT?
>> YES.
THIS IS THE CLEAR AND SIGNIFICANT INDICATOR THAT THEY HAVE A CONCERN ABOUT THE CHANCE AND THE ROOM THAT IS OPEN NOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT PEOPLE APPEAR AGAIN AT THE STREET AND THE UPRISING HAPPEN AGAIN.
THIS IS VERY STRONG INDICATOR ABOUT THEIR CONCERN AND THE REALITY IS HUNDREDS OF REIMPRESSIVE APPARATUS STATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS ARE TARGETED FOR THE PAST 12 DAYS OF THE WAR.
SO IT IS A BIG DEAL FOR THEM.
THEY ARE SCARED THAT THE SITUATION GET OUT OF CONTROL AT ANY MOMENT.
SO THAT'S WHY THEY ARE THREATENING PEOPLE AND ASK THEM OR I WOULD SAY BEGGING THEM TO STAY AT HOME AND THEY USE WHATEVER THEY HAVE IN THEIR HAND, WHAT REMAIN IN THEIR HAND, TO STOP PEOPLE TO COME -- >> LET ME -- >> AND RESPOND TO CALL FOR THE VOTE.
>> LET ME PLAY WHAT THE IRGC COMMANDER SAID.
HE'S ALSO -- WELL, FORMER IRGC.
HE'S A POLITICIAN.
LET ME PLAY WHAT HE SAID TO EXACTLY WHAT YOU'RE PLAYING THERE.
>> Translator: TODAY ANYONE ON IRANIAN SOIL WHO LETS A SOUND OUT OF THEIR THROAT THAT DISPLAYS ENMITY TOWARDS THE REGIME IN ORDER TO SHOOT THEM HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
>> SO TO YOUR POINT, BUT WHAT ALSO, THEN, ABOUT THE HOPE CERTAINLY AMONGST A LOT OF DIASPORA, I THINK ALSO ISRAEL, THE UNITED STATES MAYBE HOPED THAT WEAKENING THE IRGC AND WEAKENING THE SYSTEM WOULD LEAD TO DEFECTIONS AND CAUSE, YOU KNOW, SORT OF A TOPPLING FROM WITHIN?
WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT, PROFESSOR DANESHGAR.
WHAT DO YOU ANTICIPATE?
>> THERE ARE SOME SIGNS FOR THAT.
LISTEN TO WHAT YOU'VE JUST PLAYED.
HE SAID, WE GAVE AN ORDER TO THE FORCES TO SHOOT THE PROTESTER BY THEMSELF WITHOUT THEY NEED ANY EXTRA ORDER.
THERE IS A SIGN THAT THE COMMUNICATION IN THE CHAIN OF COMMAND IS DISCONNECTED, IS INTERRUPTED BY THIS AIR CAMPAIGN AND WE HAVE A LOT OF LOST IN THE CHAIN OF COMMAND OF IRGC.
SO AT THE MOMENT OF CONFRONTATION IN THE STREET BETWEEN THE PEOPLE, PROTESTERS, AND IRGC, THEY ARE NOT AS UNITED AS BEFORE.
SO THIS IS THE HOPE, PLUS NOW WE HAVE AN ALTERNATIVE THAT PEOPLE CALLED HIS NAME CHANTING FOR HIM.
SO THIS INCREASED THE CHANCE AND THE FOOTAGE THAT YOU JUST PLAYED AND OTHER PART OF THAT, HE SAYS HE'S SAID BAD WORDS TO HIM.
SO THEY THINK MOST IMPORTANT THREAT TO THE REGIME NOW IS PROTESTER IN THE STREET, AIR CAMPAIGN THAT'S WEAKENING THE IRGC ON TOP OF THAT ALTERNATIVE, THE ACTIVE ALTERNATIVE, THAT PEOPLE CAN GET TO THE CONSENSUS AROUND HIM.
SO THE MAJOR THREAT THAT THREATENED THE EXISTENCE OF THE REGIME AND CAN LEAD TO THE COLLAPSE AT ANY MOMENT.
>> OKAY.
SO THAT'S A POINT OF VIEW THAT MANY HAVE HAD, RIGHT?
DESCRIBE FOR ME WHAT THE IRRGC IS, MARYAM.
IT'S NOT JUST AN ARMY.
IT'S GOT ITS TENTACLES EVERY WHICH WAY, RIGHT?
EVEN IF THE THEOCRASY WAS TOPPLED, TELL ME WHAT YOU SEE IF THERE IS A COLLAPSE AND HOW STRONG THEY ARE IN TERMS OF OTHER PARTS OF CONTROLLING THE SYSTEM IN IRAN.
>> SURE.
THE IRGC STARTED AS A DEFENDER OF THE REVOLUTION AS VAGUE AND TRANSPARENT A CONCEPT AS IT IS AND IT'S SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE IT WAS IN RIVALRY BASICALLY WITH THE REGULAR ARMY AND THE POLICE THAT EXISTED, LIKE THE PREREVOLUTIONARY ARMY AND THE POLICE THAT SURVIVED THE REVOLUTION.
SO IT WAS WITH THE EXCUSE OF DEFENDING THE REVOLUTION ITSELF, NOT THE COUNTRY, NOT DOMESTIC SECURITY AND ORDER, BUT THE REVOLUTION.
SO THIS VAGUENESS, THIS IN FORMALITY AROUND BOTH THE ORGANIZATION AND ITS IDEOLOGY HAS BEEN A DEFINING FACTOR OF THE IRGC FROM DAY ONE.
IT TRANSLATED ORGANIZATIONALLY INTO AN INSTITUTION THAT IS VERY DECENTRALIZED, VERY PRONE TO DIRECT ACTION.
IT WAS ACTUALLY -- THIS TENDENCY WAS INSTITUTIONALIZED WITHIN IT THROUGH THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CHAOS THAT IT THROUGH OUT OF.
>> BUT IT'S AN ECONOMIC FORCE.
IT'S A REAL ESTATE FORCE.
IT'S VERY, VERY CORRUPT AS WELL, RIGHT?
>> YES.
THERE'S THAT, TOO, BUT WHAT I WANTED TO SAY IS IT IS TRAINED IN THRIVING IN CHAOS AND THE CURRENT WAR IS ACTUALLY ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR IT TO BECOME MORE RELEVANT, TO BECOME THE FORCE THAT CAN HANDLE THIS CHAOTIC SITUATION THAT A CLASSIC ARMY WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO STAND, LET ALONE, YES, THEIR HANDS IN -- THEIR HEAVY HAND IN ECONOMY, IN POLITICS, IN ANY AND EVERY STATE OFFICE AND LIKE PUBLIC OFFICE, CIVIL OFFICE THAT IRAN HAS.
AND I DON'T THINK ACTUALLY BECAUSE THEY ARE USED TO NOT WORKING WITH A CLEAR CHAIN OF COMMAND, THEY ARE USED TO LIKE WHAT MILITARY SOCIOLOGIST CALLED SMALL GROUP COHESION.
THEIR COHESION COMES FROM SMALL GROUPS.
THEY KNOW EACH OTHER.
THEY HAVE A VERY ORGANIC RELATIONSHIP WITH EACH OTHER.
SO I DON'T THINK THAT THE CURRENT HITS THAT THEY HAVE TAKEN, FOR SURE, HAS WEAKENED THEM IN THAT REGARD.
>> LET ME ASK YOU, PROFESSOR DANESHGAR, ARE YOU CONCERNED WITH WHAT WE'RE HEARING FROM INSIDE IRAN AND MAYBE EVEN SOME IN THE DIASPORA THAT THE ATTACKS ON IRANIAN CIVILIANS, WHETHER IT'S ACCIDENTAL OR NOT, THE ATTACK ON THE DEPOT WITH THE TOXIC RAIN AND OIL FALLING DOWN, THE DAMAGE TO REALLY IMPORTANT CULTURAL HERITAGE IS BEGINNING TO FRIGHTEN THEM AND QUESTION WHETHER THIS ACTUALLY IS A WAR AGAINST JUST THE REGIME OR IS IT AGAINST ALL IRAN AND ALL IRANIANS?
ARE YOU CONCERNED ABOUT THAT SHIFT IN OPINION?
IN 30 SECONDS.
>> I THINK IF THE WAR TAKES LONGER THAN IT SHOULD BE, YES, BUT AT THIS MOMENT THE ANSWER SIMPLY IS NO BECAUSE THE PEOPLE PUT THE BLAME ON THE GOVERNMENT, ON IRGC, BECAUSE THEIR POLICY ON ELIMINATING ISRAEL AND ANTI-AMERICAN HAS PUT THE COUNTRY AND BROUGHT THIS WAR TO OUR COUNTRY.
SO HE THIS ARE BLAMING THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC REGIME AT THIS MOMENT, BUT IF THE WAR TAKES LONGER THAN IT SHOULD BE, YES, THIS SHIFT MAY HAPPEN, BUT I DON'T THINK IT WILL TAKE THAT LONG.
>> OKAY.
I APPRECIATE YOU BEING WITH US, PROFESSOR DANESHGAR, MARYAM AS WELL, THANK YOU VERY MUCH AND YOU'RE WRITING A BOOK ON THE IRGC.
>> I AM.
>>> AS WE DISCUSSED EARLIER, THE PROSPECT OF REAL REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN SOON IS QUESTIONABLE, YET PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS BEEN TOUTING THE JANUARY CAPTURE OF VENEZUELA'S DICTATOR AS THE PERFECT EXAMPLE OF AN INTERVENTION GONE RIGHT.
NOW HE'S SUGGESTING CUBA MAY BE NEXT.
VIVIAN SALAMA IS A STAFF WRITER AT THE ATLANTIC AND HAS BEEN REPORTING ON THE MIDDLE EAST FOR 15 YEARS.
SHE GIVES WALTER ISAACSON HER ANALYSIS ON TRUMP'S ACTIONS IN IRAN AND IN LATIN AMERICA.
>> THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE, AND VIVIAN SALAMA, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.
>> GREAT TO BE HERE.
>> WHAT IS YOUR UNDERSTANDING WHY PRESIDENT TRUMP LAUNCHED THE ATTACKS ON IRAN?
WHAT WAS THE PLAN THERE?
>> I THINK THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF BUILD-UP.
CERTAINLY HE HAS BELIEVED FOR SOME TIME NUCLEAR TALKS WERE BASICALLY GOING NOWHERE.
HE HAS LONG CONDEMNED JCPOA.
HE OBVIOUSLY PULLED OUT OF IT, THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL, HIS FIRST TERM IN OFFICE AND HE HAS SINCE SORT OF TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF RENEGOTIATING WITH IRAN TRYING TO GET THEM IN LINE.
THEIR ENRICHMENT ACTIVITIES HAVE GROWN OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS SINCE THE U.S.
WITHDREW FROM THE JCPOA.
SO HE WAS REALLY LOOKING FOR A SOLUTION OF SOME KIND, EITHER THAT THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE THE IRANIANS' HAND IN NEGOTIATIONS, PARTICULARLY SINCE LAST YEAR THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION LAUNCHED STRIKES ON A NUMBER OF NUCLEAR FACILITIES IN IRAN.
THERE'S A DEBATE EVEN WITHIN THE ADMINISTRATION ABOUT HOW EFFECTIVE THOSE STRIKES WERE, BUT THEY BELIEVED THAT AT LEAST IT WEAKENED THEIR HAND A LITTLE BIT.
ISRAEL'S ALSO WAR IN THE REGION WITH A NUMBER OF IRANIAN PROXIES, THE HOUTHIS, HEZBOLLAH, ALSO PLAYED A FACTOR INTO IT.
>> WHAT ABOUT THE THING THAT ISRAEL FORCED THE HAND?
>> YEAH.
THEN THERE'S THAT.
AS FAR AS THE EXACT TIMING GOES, NETANYAHU HAS MADE NO SECRET THIS IS A DREAM COME TRUE FOR HIM.
HE HAS BELIEVED FOR SOME TIME REGIME CHANGE IS ABSOLUTELY IMPERATIVE IN IRAN.
PRESIDENT TRUMP HIMSELF HAS SORT OF WAVERED ON THAT QUESTION, YOU KNOW.
IF THE CLERICAL LEADERSHIP OF IRAN WERE TO SIT AT THE TABLE AND MAKE A DEAL WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP, I DON'T THINK THAT HE WOULD HAVE WALKED AWAY FROM THAT.
>> WELL, SUPPOSE THAT THE AYATOLLAH'S SON CONSOLIDATES POWER.
WHAT POSSIBLE END GAMES ARE THERE?
>> AT THIS POINT, YOU KNOW, I THINK IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY HOW THIS COULD PLAY OUT EXCEPT THAT THE IRANIAN LEADERSHIP FINDS ITSELF BACKED INTO A CORNER AND SO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED, ITS HAND SO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED, THAT IT HAS NO CHOICE TO EITHER SURRENDER OR NEGOTIATE AND THAT IS WHAT THE ADMINISTRATION IS CERTAINLY HOPING FOR.
THEY WANT TO SEE THAT KIND OF A SOLUTION, ESPECIALLY AS PRESIDENT TRUMP DANGLES THIS POSSIBILITY OF GROUND TROOPS BEING NEEDED TO BE ABLE TO KIND OF SEE THEIR OBJECTIVES THROUGH.
NOW I WANT TO EMPHASIZE WHAT THE OBJECTIVES THAT THEY KEEP PUTTING OUT ARE, WHETHER OR NOT, YOU KNOW, THAT IS ULTIMATELY WHERE IT TAKES THE CONFLICT OR NOT, BUT THEY SAY THEY WANT TO DENIGRATE IRAN'S NUCLEAR CAPACITY.
THEY WANT TO TAKE OUT ITS MISSILES.
THEY WANT TO TAKE OUT ITS NAVY AND PRESIDENT TRUMP IN A PRESS CONFERENCE THIS WEEK SAYING THE NAVY HAS PRETTY MUCH BEEN ANNIHILATED AND THEN LASTLY, TARGET THE PROXIES THAT ARE IN THE REGION.
SO THAT IS WHAT THEY CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE, IS THEIR CORE MISSION AT HAND.
THEY DON'T LIKE TO TALK ABOUT REGIME CHANGE EXCEPT PRESIDENT TRUMP LIKES TO TAP DANCE AND FLIRT WITH THIS IDEA OF REGIME CHANGE AND SAY YES.
AT THIS POINT I THINK IT'S TIME FOR REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN.
OBVIOUSLY HE TENDS TO KIND OF FLIP-FLOP ON SOME OF THESE ISSUES, AS DO A NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN HIS ADMINISTRATION.
THAT'S WHY WE HAVE TO KIND OF WAIT AND SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS.
>> YOU TALK ABOUT THE NEED TO DEGRADE IRAN'S PROXIES IN THE REGION YOU JUST CALLED THEM AND, OF COURSE, THE MAIN ONE IS LEBANON AND THE IRANIAN PROXIES IN LEBANON AND THAT SEEMS TO BE A SECOND FRONT IN THIS WAR OR AT LEAST FOR ISRAEL THAT'S ATTACKING THERE.
TELL ME HOW THIS IS GOING TO PLAY OUT AND IS THE U.S.
GOING TO OPEN A SECOND FRONT OR COULD IT IN LEBANON AGAINST IRAN'S PROXIES?
>> SO FAR MY UNDERSTANDING IS THEY ARE VERY RELUCTANT TO OPEN A SECOND FRONT.
THEY WILL DEFEND ISRAEL IF NEED BE WITH LIMITED TARGETING WHICH WE'VE SEEN IN RECENT YEARS AS WELL, BUT THEY'RE VERY RELUCTANT TO OPEN A SECOND FRONT AT THIS POINT, PARTICULARLY SINCE THE WAR IN IRAN ALREADY IS SO GROSSLY UNPOPULAR IN THE UNITED STATES EVEN AMONG MANY IN THE PRESIDENT'S BASE.
THEY WOULD RATHER GET IN AND OUT AND DO THIS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE, ALSO JUST BECAUSE WE ARE IN A MIDTERM ELECTION YEAR AND A LOT OF THAT HANGS IN THE BALANCE, ALSO BECAUSE ENERGY PRICES ARE RISING AND PLACING PRESSURE ON THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.
I THINK THEY ARE DEFINITELY LEANING TOWARD AN IN AND OUT SCENARIO FOR THOSE REASONS.
EASIER SAID THAN DONE.
I'VE COVERED THE MIDDLE EAST 15 YEARS.
I KNOW THESE CONFLICTS WITH SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL ALMOST OVERNIGHT.
THIS IS ALREADY LOOKING THAT WAY.
ISRAEL HAS SORT OF MADE IT ITS MISSION TO TRY TO COMPLETE WHAT IT STARTED A FEW YEARS AGO AND GO AFTER REMAINING CELLS OF HEZBOLLAH THAT HAVE CREATED ANY KIND OF TROUBLE FOR ISRAEL.
THAT'S THEIR POSITIONING OF IT, BUT, OF COURSE, WE SEE CIVILIAN SITES TARGETED AS WELL, WHICH IS VERY TROUBLING AND COULD ALSO OPEN THE DOOR FOR A WIDER CONFLICT.
SO -- >> YOU JUST SAID SOMETHING A MOMENT AGO ABOUT IT COULD SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL AND THAT'S WHAT WE'RE SEEING NOW.
IS THIS REALLY SPIRALING OUT OF CONTROL AND WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY THAT?
>> WELL, YOU ALREADY SEE IRAN LAUNCHING ATTACKS SORT OF HAPHAZARDLY AROUND THE REGION, EVEN BEYOND THE REGION.
I WAS READING AZERBAIJAN GOT MISSILES.
I DON'T HAVE A LIST RIGHT NOW OF ALL THE COUNTRIES THAT GOT HIT ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
SOME OF IT WAS MISFIRES AND THINGS LIKE, THAT BUT OTHERS WERE DELIBERATE.
CERTAINLY IRAN IS ALREADY GOING AFTER U.S.
ALLIES IN THE REGION, ITS ARAB ALLIES, TARGETING SITES IN THE HUNDREDS PER DAY IN PLACES LIKE THE UNITED EMIRATES AND QATAR AND SAUDI ARABIA.
THESE ARE COUNTRIES THAT OBVIOUSLY HAVE VERY CLOSE TIES WITH THE UNITED STATES.
SOME OF THEM HOST U.S.
MILITARY BASES THERE AND IT'S PARTIALLY WHY THEY ARE BEING TARGETED.
THEY ARE ALSO NO FRIEND TO IRAN.
THEY WERE VERY MUCH ON BOARD FOR CONTAINING IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM AND KIND OF GETTING IT IN LINE, BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, THEY DID NOT WANT TO GET DRAGGED INTO THIS CONFLICT.
I WAS TALKING TO ARAB OFFICIALS AND I WROTE A STORY BEFORE IN CONFLICT BEGAN ABOUT ARAB ALLIES DECLINING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S REQUEST TO HAVE THEM USE HER THEIR MILITARY BASES BECAUSE OF THAT EXACT REASON.
>> YOU DON'T PUT MUCH STOCK IN THE IDEA THE SAUDIS HELPED PUSH THIS ATTACK ON IRAN AS WELL.
>> I DON'T THINK THEY'RE CRYING FOR THE AYATOLLAH.
I DEFINITELY THINK THEY'D LIKE TO SEE SOME LIMITED STRIKES.
HOWEVER, WHILE THE OFFICIALS I TALKED TO BELIEVED THAT A BROAD CONFLICT LIKE THE ONE WE'RE SEEING NOW WAS ONLY GOING TO CREATE TENSION AND DESTABILIZE THE REGION, OBVIOUSLY DESTABILIZE ENERGY MARKETS AND THAT'S WHAT WE'RE SEEING.
WHETHER IT'S SHORT TERM OR NOT, WE'LL FIND OUT.
>> YOU TALK ABOUT DESTABILIZING ENERGY MARKETS WHICH IS A BIT OF A EUPHEMISM, WHEN I GO BY THE GAS STATION GOING TO HIT $4 SOON AND NOW $90 A BARREL.
IF THIS CONFLICT SORT OF SIMMERS FOR A WHILE, DOESN'T EXPLODE BUT STAYS ON, DO YOU THINK OIL STAYS ABOVE $90 A BARREL AND DOES THAT HELP RUSSIA?
DOES THAT HURT THE AMERICAN ECONOMY?
DOES IT HELP CHINA?
>> A LOT OF IT HINGES ON WHETHER OR NOT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BECOMES PASSABLE.
AT THIS POINT IT'S NOT AND THAT'S ONE OF THE BIG REASONS.
IT'S EITHER BECAUSE IT'S TOO DANGEROUS OR BECAUSE TANKER COMPANIES DON'T WANT TO TAKE THE RISK.
IT'S UNDERSTANDABLE WITH MISSILES FLYING BACK AND FORTH OVER THE GULF.
IF THAT WERE TO CHANGE, THEN I COULD CERTAINLY SEE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE OIL PRICES STABILIZE, BUT UNTIL GAS IS PUMPED AGAIN IN QATAR, ONE OF THE LARGEST LNG PRODUCERS, THOSE FACTORS DEFINITELY PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN THIS.
UNTIL THAT CHANGES I DON'T ENVISION A MAJOR CHANGE OR THESE PRICES COMING DOWN.
>> BOTH YOU AND THE ATLANTIC HAVE BEEN DOING A GREAT JOB COVERING UKRAINE AND UKRAINE IS ONE OF THE COUNTRIES THAT HAS ACTUALLY COME TO THE AID OF THE UNITED STATES AND OTHERS IN TERMS OF HELPING WITH DRONES, DEFENSE AGAINST DRONES THAT IRAN MAY HAVE.
TELL ME, WHAT IS UKRAINE DOING AND HOW THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE DYNAMIC OF THE UKRAINE WAR.
>> SO UKRAINE HAS BEEN VERY SKILLED AT DRONE TECHNOLOGY, IN PART BECAUSE IT HAD TO BE.
RUSSIA WAS ALSO VERY SKILLED AT THE USE OF DRONES.
I REMEMBER BEING ON THE FRONT LINES AND HEARING THE HOVERING BUZZ OF DRONES OVER MY HEAD FROM RUSSIAN DRONES THAT WERE FLYING IN AND OVER UKRAINE.
THEY HAD TO QUICKLY FIND WAYS TO COMBAT THAT AND ESPECIALLY BECAUSE A LOT OF THE DRONE TECHNOLOGY THAT THEY DID HAVE, THEIR DRONES WERE ABLE TO BE SHOT DOWN BY RUSSIAN TECHNOLOGY THEY DIDN'T HAVE THEN.
SO THEY'VE BEEN ENHANCING THEIR TECHNOLOGY OVER THIS TIME IN A WAY TO BE ABLE TO FIGHT IN THIS MODERN WAY AND SO PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY IN RECENT DAYS TOOK TO X AND OFFERED DRONE TECHNOLOGY TO HELP SUPPORT THIS WAR BECAUSE IRAN HAS BEEN ABLE TO SOW CHAOS ACROSS THE REGION IN PART BECAUSE OF DRONE TECHNOLOGY.
THAT HAS BEEN AN ISSUE SO FAR.
PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS ASKED ABOUT THIS AND HE SAID HE'D CONSIDER IT.
IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT ENDS UP IN A PARTNERSHIP, PARTICULARLY BECAUSE PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY HAS SORT OF STRUGGLED TO ENDEAR HIMSELF TO PRESIDENT TRUMP WHEN NEGOTIATING HIS OWN CONFLICT.
THAT MIGHT BE A WAY IN FOR HIM.
>> YOU HAD A GREAT PIECE IN THE ATLANTIC ABOUT A WEEK AGO CALLED "ALL EYES ON CUBA," THAT SAID OKAY, AFTER VENEZUELA, AFTER ALL THIS YOU HAVE A PRESIDENT WHO IS KIND OF LIKING REGIME CHANGE.
I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID, IF WE ACHIEVE A HISTORIC TRANSFORMATION IN VENEZUELA, WE'RE ALSO LOOKING FORWARD TO THE GREAT CHANGE THAT WILL BE COMING TO CUBA.
WHAT DOES TRUMP WANT TO ACHIEVE THERE?
>> WELL, I'M SURE I DON'T HAVE TO TELL YOU, WALTER, CUBA HAS PROBABLY HAUNTED SEVEN DECADES WORTH OF PRESIDENTS OF BOTH PARTIES AND SO FINDING A SOLUTION TO CUBA, TO THE CUBA PROBLEM AND WHAT I MEAN BY THAT IS AGAIN THIS PERCEPTION THAT THERE'S A COMMUNIST REGIME AT THE DOORSTEP OF THE UNITED STATES THAT WOULD BE A PERCH FOR COUNTRIES LIKE RUSSIA OR ONCE UPON A TIME THE SOVIET UNION AND CHINA TO BE ABLE TO SPY ON THE UNITED STATES BECAUSE IT WOULD BE MORE SYMPATHETIC TO THEIR IDEOLOGIES AND NOT THE U.S.
THAT HAS HAUNTED PRESIDENTS OF BOTH PARTIES AND PRESIDENT TRUMP IS NO DIFFERENT EXCEPT THAT CIRCUMSTANCES ARE NOW DIFFERENT BECAUSE FOR THE PAST TWO OR THREE DECADES CUBA HAS LARGELY BEEN PROPPED UP BY VENEZUELA, VENEZUELAN OIL SPECIFICALLY.
I WROTE ABOUT THE HISTORY OF IT, THIS ALLIANCE BETWEEN FIDEL CASTRO AND HUGO CHAVEZ, THE PREDECESSOR TO NICOLAS MADURO, THE ONE WHO SORT OF FLIPPED VENEZUELA FROM DEMOCRACY TO A MORE SOCIALIST NATION.
YOU KNOW, CUBA NEEDED VENEZUELA BECAUSE IT HAD JUST LOST THE SOVIET UNION WHEN THE SOVIET UNION COLLAPSED AND IT NEEDED A BENEFACTOR TO HELP IT AND VENEZUELA STEPPED IN, STARTED SHIPPING OIL.
THEN CUBA WOULD RESPOND WITH DOCTORS AND, YOU KNOW, OTHER ASSISTANCE, INCLUDING INTELLIGENCE SHARING.
ALL THAT IS GONE NOW WITH NICOLAS MADURO BEING TOPPLED AND NICOLAS MADURO DEFINITELY CARRIED ON THAT TRADITION WITH CUBA.
REMOVING NICOLAS MADURO AND FORMING A BLOCKADE IN THE CARIBBEAN HAS ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF THOSE ECONOMIC LIFELINES TO CUBA.
CUBA'S ECONOMY WAS ALREADY STRUGGLING.
IT HAS BEEN FOR YEARS, MISMANAGEMENT BY THE GOVERNMENT, COVID.
ALL THESE THINGS COMPLICATED THEIR ABILITY TO KIND OF THRIVE AT A BASIC LEVEL, BUT THAT OIL, THAT OIL LINE THAT CAME FROM VENEZUELA WAS SO CRUCIAL AND IT'S BEEN CUT OFF.
>> WHAT DOES THE OPTION IN CUBA LOOK LIKE?
>> IT LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE OPPOSITION IN IRAN INTERESTINGLY.
IT IS DISORGANIZED, SCATTERED, MOST IN EXILE.
YOU KNOW, EXPERTS WHO HAVE FOLLOWED CUBA MORE THAN ME HAVE TOLD ME THAT IT'S VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT AT THIS STAGE.
THERE IS NO CLEAR LEADER AND THAT'S THE BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND CUBA IS THAT THERE ISN'T JUST A CLEAR LEADER WHERE THEY CAN POINT TO AND SAY OKAY, THE OPPOSITION IS STRONG.
WE HAVE A FALLBACK IF NEGOTIATIONS DON'T WORK.
NOW, OF COURSE, IT DIDN'T MAY OUT THAT WAY IN VENEZUELA.
NICOLAS MADURO'S REGIME IS STILL IN POWER IRONICALLY.
>> COULD THAT HAPPEN IN CUBA?
>> IT'S POSSIBLE IT COULD HAPPEN IN CUBA.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, WE KNOW THAT SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO IS SPEAKING WITH THE GRANDSON OF RAUL CASTRO, FIDEL CASTRO'S BROTHER WHO LED THE COUNTRY FOR A WHILE, BUT HE'S 94 NOW.
SO HE'S ENJOYING HIS RETIREMENT SOMEWHERE.
HE'S SPEAKING WITH RAUL CASTRO'S GRANDSON AND THEY ARE TRYING TO SEE IF A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT COULD WORK IF THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT WOULD BE WILLING TO SORT OF MAKE PEACE WITH THE UNITED STATES AND I CAN TELL YOU THEY'RE WATCHING WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE WORLD VERY CLOSELY.
WHAT HAPPENED TO NICOLAS MADURO, I CAN'T TELL YOU.
IT STRUCK FEAR INTO THE HEARTS OF FOES AND ALLIES ALIKE BECAUSE HE WAS VIRTUALLY PLUCKED FROM HIS BED, PUT ON A SHIP AND THEN A HELICOPTER AND SENT TO A NEW YORK CITY COURTROOM.
A PRESIDENT OF A SOVEREIGN NATION AND THEY DID SO BYPASSING CONGRESS.
SO THAT WAS AN EYE OPENER AND CERTAINLY FOR THE CUBAN REGIME WHICH THINKS, YOU KNOW, IF YOU COULD DO THAT IN VENEZUELA, OF COURSE, HE COULD DO THAT TO US, TOO.
>> LET'S PUT THIS IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE.
A CENTURY AGO THE UNITED STATES USED TO GO AROUND DOING REGIME CHANGES, WHETHER IT BE LATIN AMERICA, ASIA AND THEN, OF COURSE, OVER THE 20th CENTURY IN IRAN AND MANY OTHER PLACES.
THOSE DID NOT TEND TO END WELL.
WHY IS THIS WHOLE NEW SPADE OF REGIME CHANGING?
DO YOU THINK THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE IT COULD END AS BADLY AS THE PREVIOUS?
>> JUST LAST WEEK I WROTE ABOUT THE 1953 ATTEMPT CIA COUP.
IT WAS NOT ATTEMPTED.
IT WAS ACTUALLY A SUCCESSFUL CIA COUP IN IRAN BY DUANE EISENHOWER AND WHAT WAS A SUCCESSFUL COUP AT THE TIME ENDED UP HAVING REPERCUSSIONS YEARS LATER, DECADES LATER I SHOULD SAY, WITH THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION WHICH WAS ROOTED IN PART BY WHO THE U.S.
PUT IN POWER AFTER THAT COUP AND SO IN THIS CASE HINDSIGHT IS NOT 20/20.
I HAVE BEEN ON TELEVISION TALKING ABOUT THIS AND I'VE BEEN TALKING TO EXPERTS ABOUT THIS, THAT UNFORTUNATELY HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT REGIME CHANGE OPERATIONS DON'T ALWAYS GO VERY WELL AND ESPECIALLY IF A FOREIGN POWER IS DICTATING WHO SHOULD RUN THAT COUNTRY AND THE PEOPLE HAVE LIMITED SAY IN THAT.
AND SO PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS BEEN VERY CAREFUL IN TERMS OF KIND OF EMPHASIZING THAT THE PEOPLE SHOULD BE THE ONES TO CHOOSE, BUT, OF COURSE, THE PEOPLE IN THIS CASE DID NOT CHOOSE DELCY RODRIGUEZ, NICOLAS MADURO'S VICE PRESIDENT, AND SHE FOR NOW IS THE CARETAKER GOVERNMENT LEADER OF VENEZUELA BECAUSE SHE'S THE ONE WHO IS WORKING WITH THE U.S.
WHETHER OR NOT THEY HAND POWER TO THE OPPOSITION GROUPS WHO DID LEGITIMATELY WIN ELECTIONS IN VENEZUELA, WE'RE NOT SURE IF THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN.
WE KEEP ASKING THE ADMINISTRATION THAT.
WE DON'T GET A CLEAR ANSWER.
I THINK THEY SEEM TO THINK THAT STABILITY NEEDS TO COME FIRST IN THE COUNTRY BEFORE YOU CAN HAVE A REFERENDUM OR AN ELECTION WHERE YOU KIND OF DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN, BUT IT'S VERY UNCLEAR HOW THIS IS GOING TO PLAY OUT AT THIS STAGE.
OBVIOUSLY IT'S ONLY BEEN A COUPLE OF MONTHS IN VENEZUELA.
WE'RE WATCHING THINGS HAD UNFOLD IN REALTIME IN IRAN.
SO IT'S HARD TO REALLY PREDICT HOW IT WOULD GO, BUT GIVEN WHAT YOU WERE JUST SAYING, HISTORY HAS NOT KIND OF BEEN TOO KIND TO OPERATIONS OF THIS NATURE AND SO WE HAVE TO HOLD OUR BREATH AND HOPE THAT THIS IS DIFFERENT, BUT IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE.
>> VIVIAN SALAMA, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.
>> THANK YOU.
>>> FINALLY, WINDOWS SHATTERED AND HERITAGE DESTROYED, THE U.S./ISRAELI WAR WITH IRAN IS TEARING APART CENTURIES OF HUMAN CENTURIES HITTING HISTORIC LANDMARKS INCLUDING THE 17th CENTURY OR 40 PILLARS PALACE.
THIS NEWS FOLLOWS DAMAGE TO THE PALACE IN TEHRAN AND UNESCO'S WARNING OF THE RISKS FACING IRANIAN CULTURAL SITES WHILE AT THE VATICAN POPE LEO ISSUED A MESSAGE OF CONCERN FOR HUMANITY IN HIS LATEST ST.
PETER'S SQUARE AUDIENCE MOURNING A PRIEST WHO WAS KILLED IN STRIKES IN SOUTHERN LEBANON AND LAMENTING THE DEATH OF CHILDREN AND CIVILIANS IN THIS WAR.
THE POPE IS CALLING FOR THIS TO END AND DOUBLING DOWN ON HIS PRAYERS FOR PEACE.
>>> THAT'S IT FOR NOW.
THANK YOU FOR WATCHING AND GOOD- BYE FROM LONDON.
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