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>> HELLO, EVERYONE.
WELCOME TO AMANPOUR AND COMPANY.
HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP.
>> IRAN IS THE CLEAR AGGRESSOR, HARASSING CIVILIAN VESSELS, THREATENING MARINERS FROM EVERY NATION.
> >> THE CEASE-FIRE ON SHAKY GROUND.
THE YOU AE CAUGHT IN THE CROSSHAIRS.
REGIONAL EXPERT GREGORY GAUSE III GIVES US HIS ANALYSIS ON RISING TENSIONS IN THE GULF .
BACK FERTILIZER SHORTAGES CAUSE GLOBAL FOOD INSECURITY.
THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT IS PUSHING COMMUNITIES TO THE BRINK.
MATTHEW HOLLINGWORTH JOINS ME.
> >> REACH PRODUCTIVE RIGHTS UNDER THREAT IN AMERICA.
THE CEO OF THE CENTER FOR REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS NANCY NORTHUP JOINS ME ON WHIPLASH FROM THE COURTS OVER ACCESS TO AN ABORTION PILL.
> >> ALSO AHEAD -- >> IT SPIKES AS DEMOCRACIES ARE DECLINING, ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE DECLINING RAPIDLY.
ONCE THEY GET TO THE MIDDLE ZONE THAT IS PEAK VIOLENCE, PEAK INSTABILITY.
> >> GROWING FEARS AFTER A THIRD ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT AGAINST TRUMP.
BARBARA F WALTER SAYS WHY SHE BELIEVES POLITICAL VIOLENCE IS HERE TO STAY.
> >> AMANPOUR AND COMPANY IS MADE POSSIBLE IN PART BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT, JIM ATTWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS, CANDACE KING WEIR, SYLVIA A. AND SIMON B. POYTA PROGRAMMING ENDOWMENT TO FIGHT ANTISEMITISM , THE STRAUSS FAMILY FOUNDATION, PETER G. PETERSON AND JOAN GANZ COONEY FUND, CHARLES ROSENBLUM, MONIQUE SCHOEN WARSHAW, KOO AND PATRICIA YUEN --COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN OUR COMMUNITIES, BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG, AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.
THANK YOU.
> >> WELCOME, EVERYONE.
IS THE CEASE-FIRE HOLDING ANY RON?
SINCE THE U. S. LAUNCHED PROJECT FREEDOM, A PLAN TO GUIDE SHIPS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, THE AMERICAN AND IRANIAN MILITARIES HAVE TRADED THREATS AND FIRE.
DAN KANE FROM THE CHIEFS OF STAFF SAID IRAN ATTACKED FORCES MORE THAN 10 TIMES SINCE THE CEASE-FIRE WAS ANNOUNCED, BUT THE ATTACKS ARE ALL BELOW THE THRESHOLD OF FREE STARTING MAJOR COMBAT OPERATIONS.
TRUMP DECLINES TO SAY WHETHER THE CEASE-FIRE IS HOLDING BUT IN A PENTAGON BRIEFING DEFENSE SECRETARY PETE HEGSETH SAID IT IS STILL IN EFFECT.
>> THE CEASE-FIRE IS NOT OVER.
ULTIMATELY IT'S A SEPARATE AND DISTINCT PROJECT.
WE EXPECTED THERE WOULD BE SOME CHURN AT THE BEGINNING WHICH HAPPENED.
WE SAID WE WOULD DEFEND AND DEFEND AGGRESSIVELY.
WE ABSOLUTELY HAVE.
IRAN KNOWS THAT AND ULTIMATELY THE PRESIDENT WILL MAKE A DECISION WHETHER ANYTHING WERE TO ESCALATE INTO VIOLATION OF THE CEASE-FIRE.
WE WOULD URGE IRAN TO BE PRUDENT AND THE ACTIONS THEY TAKE TO KEEP THIS UNDERNEATH THE THRESHOLD.
>> AMONG THE TARGETS, THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES WHICH SAYS AIR DEFENSES ARE DEALING WITH THE MISSILE THREAT FROM IRAN.
A DRONE ATTACK ON AN OIL PORT ON MONDAY CAUSED A FIRE THAT INJURED THREE INDIAN NATIONALS.
WHEN THE YOU AE QUIT OPEC IT EXPOSED THE GROWING RIFT WHICH IS REVERBERATING THROUGH THE PERSIAN GULF AND BEYOND.
GREGORY GAUSE IS AN ASSOCIATE FELLOW AT THE MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE AND JOINS ME NOW FROM DELAWARE.
WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM .
AS WE HEARD THE PENTAGON ANNOUNCING THAT IRAN HAS HIT THE UNITED STATES ASSETS MORE THAN 10 TIMES DURING THIS CEASE-FIRE , AND THAT ALL QUALIFIES AS BEING BELOW THE THRESHOLD OF FREE STARTING MAJOR COMBAT OPERATIONS.
FROM YOUR VIEW, IS WASHINGTON'S DEFINITION OF CONSTRAINT AT THIS POINT SUSTAINABLE.
>> I THINK THE CEASE-FIRE HOLDS AS LONG AS PRESIDENT TRUMP WANTS IT TO HOLD THE MATTER WHAT THEY DO.
THE IDEA OF GETTING BACK TO LARGE-SCALE MILITARY OPERATIONS AGAINST IRAN IS SOMETHING THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WANTS TO AVOID.
I THINK THAT MEANS THE DEFINITION OF THE CEASE-FIRE IS GOING TO BE VERY ELASTIC.
>> DOES THAT WORK TO IRAN'S ADVANTAGE AT THIS POINT, OR IS THE PAIN STILL BEING INFLICTED THAT THE PRESIDENT WAS HOPING TO UNLEASH AND THAT IS THE ECONOMIC PAIN BLOCKADING THIS STRAIT?
>> THE BLOCKADE KEEPS GOING TO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS IN TERMS OF EXCHANGES OF FIRE BECAUSE THE BLOCKADE IS OUTSIDE OF THE STRAIT.
WE ARE BLOCKADING SHIPS COMING INTO THE PERSIAN GULF AND COMING INTO THE IRANIAN PORTS THAT ARE OUTSIDE .
IT REALLY IS A TEST OF WILLS WHO CAN LAST LONGER.
CAN THE IRANIANS ENDURE THIS ECONOMIC PAIN OF THE BLOCKADE OR DOES THE DOMESTIC AND GLOBAL PRESSURE TO OPEN UP THE STRAIT LEAD THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO TRY TO RESTART NEGOTIATIONS ?
>> IS THAT THE BIG UNKNOWN HERE?
DEPENDING ON WHICH ANALYST AND EXPERT YOU ARE SPEAKING WITH IRAN IS EITHER DAYS AWAY FROM MAJOR ECONOMIC DAMAGE AND IRREPARABLE DAMAGE PERHAPS LEADING EVEN TO REGIME CHANGE AS A CONSEQUENCE OR THAT THEY ARE MONTHS AWAY.
AT THE SAME TIME YOU PRESIDENT TRUMP SANE OIL COULD GO UP AS HIGH AS $200 A BARREL AND THEY ARE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE BEFORE THE WAR BEGAN BUT MUCH LOWER THAN MANY EXPERTS IMAGINED AT THIS POINT.
SO WHICH IS IT?
IT IS VERY HARD DEPENDING ON WHICH ANALYST YOU SPEAK WITH.
>> IF WE KNEW THE ANSWER TO THAT , WHAT WE CAN ANSWER IS THE TOLERANCE OF THE IRANIAN REGIME FOR IMPOSING ECONOMIC HARDSHIP ON ITS OWN PEOPLE.
MYSELF, I JUDGE THAT TOLERANCE HAS BEEN EXTREMELY HIGH .
THIS IS A REGIME THAT KILLED THOUSANDS IF NOT TENS OF THOUSANDS OF ITS OWN CITIZENS TO STAY IN POWER JUST EARLIER THIS YEAR.
I'M NOT SURE THAT THE BLOCKADE WHILE CERTAINLY IMPOSING COSTS ON THE REGIME AND ON THE IRANIAN PEOPLE IS SOMETHING THAT IS GOING TO BREAK THE REGIMES WILL ANYTIME IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
I THINK YOU WOULD PROBABLY HAVE TO MEASURE ITS IMPACT IN MONTHS, NOT WEEKS.
>> AS WE NOTED, THE UAE HAS BEEN ON THE RECEIVING END OF MOST OF THE MISSILES AND DRONES, EVEN MORE THAN ISRAEL IN THIS MATTER.
SPEAKING OF ISRAEL, WE KNOW ISRAEL RUSHED ADVANCED PROTOTYPE LASERS AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF TROOPS .
YOU STUDIED SECURITY ARCHITECTURE IN THE GULF FOR DECADES.
HOW SEISMIC IS THAT THAT YOU HAVE A COUNTRY THAT IS NOW ESSENTIALLY BEING PROTECTED IN LARGE PART BY ISRAEL, NOT ITS OTHER NEIGHBORS?
>> IT IS UNPRECEDENTED.
THE NATURE OF THE RELATIONSHIP SINCE THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS IN 2020 HAS REALLY ESCALATED.
I THINK GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GULF STATES HAVE HAD SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT RESPONSES TO THE ATTACKS, THEY WERE ALL ATTACKED BY IRAN, THEY ARE ALL OF COURSE AGAINST IRANIAN DOMINATION OF THE GULF AND IRANIAN CONTROL OF THE STRAIT, BUT THE VARIOUS COUNTRIES HAVE DEALT WITH IRAN IN DIFFERENT WAYS DURING THIS WAR.
I THINK THEY FEEL A BIT ABANDONED BY THEIR NEIGHBORS AND HAVE LOOKED TO ISRAEL AND THE UNITED STATES OF COURSE TO BACKSTOP THEIR DEFENSE.
I THINK THE DECLARATION OF LEAVING OPEC WHICH HAD NO MARKET EFFECT BECAUSE THE STRAIT IS CLOSED, THEY CAN PRODUCE MORE OIL IF THEY WANT.
THEY JUST CAN'T GET IT TO MARKET.
IT WAS MORE OF A SIGNAL THAT THEY ARE GOING TO GO THEIR OWN WAY IN TERMS OF SECURITY AND ECONOMICS WHEN THE WAR ENDS.
>> PERHAPS IT IS EVEN VALID TO GO AS FAR AS SAYING IT'S DOUBLING DOWN ON RELIANCE WITH THE UNITED STATES AND ISRAEL AND A SLAP IN THE FACE FOR SAUDI ARABIA.
I MEAN, A DECADE AGO YOU HAD THESE TWO COUNTRIES UNITED OVER THE WAR IN YEMEN.
TODAY THEY ARE BACKING OPPOSING SIDE.
HAVE ABU DHABI AND RIYADH MOVED COMPLETELY PASSED A DIPLOMATIC RIFT TO AN ACTIVE PROXY WAR?
YOU HAVE YEMEN AND SUDAN WHERE THEY WERE ON OPPOSING ENDS POTENTIALLY AS WELL.
AT LEAST THE UAE.
>> I WOULD NOT GO THAT FAR.
THE EMMA ROWDIES AND SALVI'S -- SAUDIS HAVE NOT BROKEN RELATIONS.
THERE IS NOTHING ON THE LEVEL OF THE BOYCOTT THEY PLACED ON QATAR IN 2017 BUT IT CLEARLY IS TELLING THE SAUDI'S WE ARE NOT GOING TO FOLLOW YOUR LEAD.
TO BE A MEMBER OF OPEC IN ESSENCE MEANT YOU WERE GOING TO FOLLOW THE SAUDI LEAD.
THEY WERE THE DOMINANT PLAYER.
THAT WAS A CLEAR SIGNAL.
AS YOU SAID, JUST THREE OR FOUR YEARS AGO THESE STATES WERE VERY CLOSELY ALIGNED.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT ALL OF THESE GOVERNMENTS ON THE ARAB SIDE OF THE GULF ARE REALLY PERSONAL LIST MONARCHIES, THE KING CALLS THE SHOTS .
THESE THINGS CAN CHANGE.
QATAR AND SAUDI ARABIA HAD DAGGERS DRAWN FIVE OR SIX YEARS AGO AND ARE NOW COOPERATING PRETTY DIRECTLY.
THEN THE PRESIDENT OF THE YOU AE -- UAE THE MAYOR OF ABU DHABI AND THE CROWN PRINCE OF SAUDI ARABIA DECIDE TO COMPOSE THEIR DIFFERENCES THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CHANGE VERY QUICKLY.
>> TALK ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THESE TWO MEN.
AT ONE POINT PLAYING A ROLE OF MENTOR TO A YOUNGER MOHAMMED BIN SOLOMON .
THEY HAD ENGAGED IN THE CAMPING TRIP NOW IT SEEMS LIKE THEY ARE MORE LIKE RIVALS.
HOW DID THAT HAPPEN?
>> I RESIST GOING INTO PSYCHOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS.
I THINK IT HAS TO DO WITH INTERESTS.
SAUDI ARABIA IS TRYING TO TAKE SOME OF THE BUSINESS AWAY FROM DUBAI, BASICALLY.
SAUDI ARABIA WANTS TO BE THE BUSINESS HUB OF THE GULF.
DUBAI HAS BEEN THAT HUB FOR DECADES.
THE SAUDI'S HAVE ADOPTED REGULATIONS THAT BASICALLY SAY IF YOU WANT TO DO BUSINESS WITH THE SAUDI GOVERNMENT YOU HAVE TO HAVE YOUR REGIONAL HEADQUARTERS AND RIYADH.
THAT WAS AN EFFORT TO DRIVE BUSINESS AWAY FROM DUBAI.
IT'S VERY MUCH AN INTEREST- BASED DIFFERENCE.
THEY ARE TAKING A VERY DIFFERENT VIEW OF HIM ISRAEL AND ISRAEL'S ROLE IN THE REGION THAN THE SAUDI'S HAVE.
I WOULD NOT PUT TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON THE PSYCHOLOGICAL ELEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO LEADERS.
AS I SAID, IF THE SITUATION CHANGES, THEY WILL BE ABLE TO RESTORE THEIR FRIENDLY TIES VERY EASILY.
>> AND WHAT THEY BOTH HAVE IN COMMON IS THEIR SKEPTICISM AND AT THIS POINT ANIMOSITY TOWARDS IRAN.
THEIR LEADERSHIP AS YOU NOTED THE TWO COUNTRIES HAVE TREATED IRAN QUITE DIFFERENTLY AND APPROACHED THAT DYNAMIC QUITE DIFFERENTLY .
THE UAE MUCH MORE HAWKISH THAN SAUDI ARABIA HAS BEEN.
TRUMP ADVISORS JARED KUSHNER AND STEVEN WITKOFF WERE ACTUALLY ALIGNED AT HOW QUICKLY THE WAR IN IRAN HAS FRAYED RELATIONS BETWEEN THESE COUNTRIES.
BOTH OF THEM LIKE OTHER GCC COUNTRIES INVESTED HEAVILY, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN RELATIONS AND IN THE UNITED STATES OPEN FOR THE MOST PART TO GET U. S. MILITARY SUPPORT OUT OF THIS.
HOW HAS THAT PLAYED OUT THUS FAR?
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE LANDSCAPE OVER THE WAR GOING BACK TO FEBRUARY 28.
HAS IT BEEN A FRUITFUL INVESTMENT FROM THEIR PERSPECTIVE?
>> ON THE MILITARY SIDE IS BEEN LARGELY AMERICAN TECHNOLOGY AND AMERICAN ADVICE THAT HAS HELPED ALL THE GULF COUNTRIES RESIST THE IRANIAN MISSILE AND DRONE ATTACKS ALTHOUGH SOME HAVE GOTTEN THROUGH.
I'VE BEEN SURPRISED HOW MANY, A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE IRANIAN MISSILES AND DRONES HAVE BEEN INTERCEPTED BY THE GULF STATES.
AT THE END OF THE WAR ALL OF THE GULF STATES WILL HAVE MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT THE UNITED STATES ON THIS.
ON THE ONE HAND, NONE OF THEM REALLY WANTED THE WAR TO HAPPEN AND THEY WERE DRAGGED INTO IT BY THE UNITED STATES WHICH REALLY DID NOT CONSULT THEM ABOUT IT.
ON THE OTHER HAND I THINK THE WAR HAS DEMONSTRATED THE IMPORTANCE OF AMERICAN SECURITY RELATIONSHIP FOR ALL OF THEM.
ALL OF THEM WILL BE LOOKING TO BUILD THE RESILIENCE OF THEIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.
THAT MIGHT BE GOING TO ISRAELIS OR LOOKING TOWARD EUROPE, LOOKING TOWARD CHINA, LOOKING TOWARD EAST ASIA.
THAT DOES NOT MEAN REPLACING THE UNITED STATES.
THAT JUST MEANS GETTING A BACKUP TO THE UNITED STATES.
>> TO YOUR EARLIER POINT .
DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE BAD BLOOD NOW, MOHAMMED BIN SOLOMON PLACED A CALL TO THE LEADER EXPRESSING SUPPORT AFTER THE STRIKES.
A REMINDER THAT THEY BOTH STILL VIEW THEM AS A THREAT.
IF YOU RUN EMERGES FROM THE WAR WITH ITS MISSILE ARSENAL SOMEWHAT INTACT AND A LINGERING CHOKEHOLD OR AT LEAST THE OPTION AVAILABLE TO THEM, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR THE FUTURE OF THE REGION?
>> IF IRAN REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE STRATA FORM IS IN A WAY THAT ALLOWS --STRAIT OF HORMUZ IN A WAY THAT ALLOWS THEM TO IN EFFECT SET UP A TOLLBOOTH THEN ALL OF THE GULF COUNTRIES LOSE.
THE UNITED STATES LOSES AND THE WORLD ECONOMY LOSES.
THAT WOULD BE THE CLEAREST SIGNAL THE UNITED STATES LOST THE WAR.
>> ALL RIGHT, GREGORY GAUSE.
RIGHT TO HAVE YOUR EXPERTISE ON TODAY.
WE APPRECIATE THE TIME.
> >> TODAY DEFENSE SECRETARY HEGSETH SAID THE OPERATION TO GUIDE SHIPS THROUGH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY BENEFIT THE WORLD.
>> THIS IS MORE THAN STRATEGY.
IT'S ALSO HUMANITARIAN.
BY BREAKING THAT ILLEGAL STRANGLEHOLD AND PROTECTING THE LIVES OF SAILORS FROM DOZENS OF COUNTRIES SECURING GLOBAL ENERGY ROOT AND PREVENTING SHORTAGES THAT HIT THE POOREST PEOPLE THE HARDEST AMERICA IS USING ITS STRENGTH TO LIFT UP OTHERS.
>> IT IS TRUE.
THE SHUTDOWN OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS A MAJOR IMPACT ON FOOD SENATE --FOOD INSECURITY.
A THIRD OF FERTILIZER PASSES THROUGH.
THEY WARN THAT 45 MILLION PEOPLE COULD BE PUSHED INTO ACUTE HUNGER DURING THE CONFLICT.
MATTHEW HOLLINGWORTH HELPS RUN GLOBAL OPERATIONS CONTENDING WITH CRISES FROM LEBANON TO SUDAN .
HE JOINS US FROM SOMALIA WHERE INCREASING FOOD AND FUEL PRICES ARE HAVING AN IMPACT.
WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.
YOU ARE ON THE GROUND VISITING DISPLACED COMMUNITIES AFTER THREE CONSECUTIVE FAILED RAINY SEASONS.
THE ATMOSPHERE WAS ALREADY RIPE FOR MUCH SUFFERING.
NOW WE HAVE THIS WAR, CRUCIAL HUMANITARIAN DELIVERIES ARE NOW BEHIND SOME SIX WEEKS.
YOU ARE DEALING WITH THOSE THAT NEED IT MOST SOME AS YOUNG AS FIVE AND UNDER.
TELL US WHAT YOU ARE SEEING AS A CONSEQUENCE.
>> GOOD EVENING FROM SOMALIA.
TODAY I WAS IN A MEETING WITH FAMILIES WHO'VE BEEN DISPLACED OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
THEY ARE ABSOLUTELY DESPERATE.
THEY MAY HAVE LEFT HOMES WITH THEIR GOATS AND ANIMALS, PERHAPS HALF OF THEM LIVED THROUGH THE JOURNEY AS LONG AS TWO OR 300 KILOMETERS TRYING TO GET TO PLACES WHERE THERE'S ENOUGH FOOD AND A PASTOR FOR THEIR ANIMALS SO THEY DO NOT DIE.
THEY HAVE LOST THEIR LIVELIHOODS, THEY'VE LOST THEIR HEALTH IN MANY WAYS.
I WAS IN A HEALTH CENTER WHERE WE HAVE TO TURN CHILDREN AWAY FROM RECEIVING EMERGENCY NUTRITION TREATMENT BECAUSE WE DO NOT HAVE THE STOCKS ANYMORE TO PROVIDE EVERYBODY AND EVERY CHILD WITH ASSISTANCE.
IT IS A TERRIBLE SITUATION.
THE DRYNESS, THE DROUGHT, THE LACK OF PASTURELAND FOR ANIMALS MEANS THE PEOPLE THAT RELY ON THOSE ANIMALS TO ESSENTIALLY STAY HEALTHY AND LIVE ARE REALLY OUT OF DESPERATION POINT.
>> GIVEN EVERYTHING IS LAID OUT IS THE THREAT OF AN OFFICIAL FAMINE BACK ON THE TABLE FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA?
>> I THINK IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL.
WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS ALL THE SIGNS THAT THE SITUATION IS WORSENING WEEK BY WEEK.
THERE ARE SOME RAINS THAT ARE COMING NOW LATE, SPORADIC, SCATTERED AROUND THE COUNTRY.
IT WILL BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE FOR MANY.
TOO MANY ANIMALS HAVE ALREADY PASSED AWAY.
TOO MANY FAMILIES LIVELIHOODS ARE GONE.
IT IS GETTING WORSE AND WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED AND WE NEED TO REDOUBLE EFFORTS TO GET SUPPORT TO SOMALIA AND HELP FAMILIES TRY TO ENSURE THEY DON'T LOSE EVEN MORE BECAUSE NOBODY WANTS TO EXIST DEPENDENT ON AID.
THEY ALL WANT TO LOOK AFTER THEMSELVES, SEE CAN MAKE A BETTER LIFE FOR THEIR FAMILY BUT THEY ARE BEING TESTED BEYOND THE LIMIT .
AS HE RIGHTLY SET UP TO THREE CONSECUTIVE YEARS OF RAIN FAILURE.
THIS IS A REALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
>> HOW CAN FAMILIES LOOK AFTER THEMSELVES WHEN YOU HAVE A COUNTRY THAT IMPORTS 70% OF ITS FOOD.
FUEL COSTS HAVE SURGED IN SOME AREAS .
WHAT ARE THEY LEFT ATTEND WITH AND DEAL WITH ON THEIR OWN.
>> PEOPLE ARE MAKING REALLY TOUGH CHOICES.
SELLING ASSETS THAT THEY ONCE WOULD HAVE NEVER THOUGHT OF SELLING LIKE THEIR ANIMALS THAT ARE LIVING.
THEY ARE TAKING DIFFICULT DECISIONS ON WHICH CHILDREN GO TO SCHOOL, WHICH DON'T.
THEY ARE TAKING DIFFICULT DECISIONS ON WHICH CHILDREN EAT AND WHICH DON'T.
HUMANITARIANS ARE TAKING TOUGH DECISIONS ON WHO WE CAN HELP AND WHO WE CAN MEANING TARGETING PRIORITIZATION GIVING LESS TO FEWER PEOPLE.
WE ARE SEEING THAT RIGHT NOW.
THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAM REPRESENTS ABOUT 90% OF FOOD ASSISTANCE THAT IS PROVIDED IN SOMALIA.
TODAY, SADLY, WE CAN ONLY HELP ONE IN 10 OF THE PEOPLE THAT WE WANT TO HELP.
LIKE I SAID, TOUGH CHOICES BY FAMILIES.
TOUGH CHOICES BY HUMANITARIANS.
TOUGH CHOICES BY THE GOVERNMENT AS WELL.
>> TOUGH CHOICES NOBODY WANTS TO MAKE.
I DON'T KNOW HOW YOU COME TO THESE DECISIONS AND HAVE TO TURN FAMILIES AWAY IN PERSON.
YOU ESTIMATE THAT EVEN RIGHT NOW IF THE SITUATION IMPROVES AND THE WAR WERE TO COME TO AN END OPERATIONS WOULD TAKE 4 TO 5 MONTHS TO STABILIZE.
HOW DO YOU BRIDGE THAT GAP?
>> WITH GREAT DIFFICULTY.
LET ME TELL YOU RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE WORLD WE ARE SEEING FREIGHT RATES GOING SKYHIGH BACK TO THE LEVELS OF 2022 AFTER THE INVASION OF UKRAINE.
BACK TO THE LEVELS OF COVID.
THE WAR RISK INSURANCE GOING THROUGH THE ROOF.
EVERYTHING SLOWING DOWN DELIVERIES AND MAKING IT MORE EXPENSIVE.
RIGHT AT THE OUTSET YOU MENTIONED FERTILIZER.
NET FOOD IMPORTERS DEPENDENT ON IMPORTING FOOD NOW HAVING TO DEAL WITH THE REALITY THAT FOOD PRICES ARE GOING TO GO UP BECAUSE EVEN RICHER NATIONS, NATIONS THAT CAN GROW AND TO GROW USING FERTILIZER WILL USE LESS BECAUSE IT IS LESS AVAILABLE AND MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE.
EXPORTS WILL REDUCE AND POOR COUNTRIES WILL SUFFER EVEN MORE.
IT'S A TOUGH TIME FOR US.
WE ARE TRYING TO DO EVERYTHING IN OUR POWER TO BE AS EFFICIENT AND EFFECTIVE AS POSSIBLE, TO STRETCH EVERY DOLLAR WE CAN RECEIVE TO HELP PEOPLE IN PLACES LIKE SOMALIA PICK IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT TIME FOR US AND THERE'S NO EASY WAY OUT OF THIS.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN OF COURSE IS WE KNOW WHEN PRICES GO UP THEY STAY HIGH.
EVEN IF THERE WAS A RESOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST TOMORROW AS HE RIGHTLY SAID WE ALREADY KNOW WE ARE HELPING FEWER PEOPLE TODAY THAN WE WERE BEFORE THE WAR STARTED BECAUSE OF PRICE INCREASES.
IF IT CONTINUES ANOTHER THREE MONTHS WE WILL HELP 9 MILLION FEWER PEOPLE THAN WE PLAN TO HELP.
AS HE RIGHTLY SAID IN THE MEANTIME, THE OVERALL NUMBERS OF PEOPLE REALLY FACING HUNGER IN THE WORLD ARE RISING .
WE ARE HELPING FEWER PEOPLE AT A TIME WHEN THE SITUATION IS GETTING WORSE.
IT IS A BAD SITUATION AND CLEARLY THE CEASE-FIRE AND BRINGING DOWN THE PRICES IS WHAT WE ARE ALL PRAYING AND HOPING FOR.
>> WHEN YOU LOOK AT THOSE OTHER COUNTRIES THAT HAVE TRADITIONALLY BEEN THE SOURCE OF ADDITIONAL AID, THE UNITED STATES CUTTING FOREIGN HUMANITARIAN AID AS WE'VE BEEN COVERING FOR A WHILE NOW.
THE UNITED KINGDOM CUT ITS BUDGET FOR AID TO FUND THE DEFENSE BUDGET.
YOU ARE FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM.
THESE ARE NOT EASY CHOICES, I WOULD IMAGINE FOR ESPECIALLY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES THAT ARE SO FOCUSED ON THE WAR IN UKRAINE TO BE MAKING AT THIS POINT, BUT IT HAS REAL-LIFE IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS ON THOSE DESPERATE IN AFRICA AND OTHER POOR COUNTRIES FOR THAT AGE.
JUST TALK ABOUT THAT CONUNDRUM AND WHAT CAN BE DONE.
WHAT IS YOUR MESSAGE TO THOSE LEADERS WHO HAVE TO FACE THESE DECISIONS?
>> CLEARLY THE WORLD HAS BENEFITED FROM CONTRIBUTIONS FROM RICHER NATIONS FOR MANY YEARS.
IT IS ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL THAT WHILE WE REALIZE THERE ARE POLITICAL REASONS WHY OTHER EXPENDITURES BECOME PRIORITIZED BY DIFFERENT COUNTRIES.
THE SUFFERING THAT MANY PEOPLE IN POOR COUNTRIES ARE FACING TODAY THE FOOD INSECURITY, THE HUNGER IS GOING TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AND MAKE THE WORLD A LESS PEACEFUL PLACE.
THAT JUST MAKES THE SITUATION WORSE.
WE DO NEED TO UNDERSTAND THAT OUR EFFORTS TO SUPPORT THE POOREST AND MOST VULNERABLE IN THE WORLD IS AN INVESTMENT IN FUTURE STABILITY OF THE WORLD.
IT'S AN INVESTMENT OF FUTURE PRODUCTIVITY IN THE WORLD BETTER ECONOMIC GROWTH IN POOR COUNTRIES.
WHEN YOU SEE THAT AS PART OF THE INVESTMENT WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT HUMANITARIAN DEVELOPMENT EXISTENCE WITH THE MEANS AND DESIRE TO SEE -- EFFICACY .
WE CAN'T BE IN A SITUATION WHERE WE ARE SEEING MORE COUNTRIES AND THEY FAIL WHERE THE CITIZENS ARE SUFFERING .
WE DO NEED TO SEE MORE SOLIDARITY AND UNITY OF ACTION WHEN IT COMES TO MAKING SURE WE DON'T SEE MULTIPLE FAMINES AT THE SAME TIME ACROSS THE WORLD.
>> DO YOU THINK THAT IS BEING HEARD IN WESTERN, AND RICHER CAPITALS AROUND THE WORLD ?
>> I THINK IT IS A STRUGGLE THAT THIS MESSAGE CONTINUES TO BE GIVEN.
THERE'S A LOT OF OVERSIMPLIFICATION AT TIMES.
PEOPLE ARE DEPENDENT ON AID AND WHAT ABOUT FOLKS AT HOME?
PEOPLE ARE SEEING FIRSTHAND WHAT REAL HUNGER, DESPERATION, STARVATION LOOKS LIKE AND WHAT IT DOES TO THE COUNTRY WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE TO THE YOUTH TO ACTUALLY HINDER THEIR FUTURES AND HOW THEY SEE THE WORLD AND THE REST OF THE WORLD.
I THINK NO INDIVIDUAL WANTS TO GO TO THEIR MAKER NOT KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE DONE EVERYTHING THEY CAN DO THAT IS POSSIBLE TO ACTUALLY MITIGATE THOSE LEVELS OF VULNERABILITY AND DEPRIVATION.
I THINK THE MESSAGE STILL COMES ACROSS.
I KNOW THAT GOVERNMENTS TAKE THIS VERY SERIOUSLY LIKE I SAID, WE ARE NOT POINTING FINGERS OR ACCUSING ANY NATION , BUT WE DO NEED OTHER CITIZENS OF THE WORLD TO SHOW THAT LEVEL OF SOLIDARITY THAT WE KNOW THEY CAN WHEN IT COMES TO PLACES AND PEOPLE WHO THROUGH NO FAULT OF THEIR OWN ARE SUFFERING TODAY.
>> IT IS PERHAPS A MORAL RESPONSIBILITY BUT AS YOU POINT OUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT STABILIZES THE WORLD AS WELL.
MATTHEW HOLLINGWORTH, THANK YOU FOR THE WORK YOU ARE DOING AND THANK YOU FOR THE TIME.
>> INC.
YOU.
> >> THERE'S A NEW THREAT TO REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS IN AMERICA.
ON MONDAY THE SUPREME COURT RESTORED TELEHEALTH AND MAIL ACCESS TO THE ABORTION PILL MIFEPRISTONE AT LEAST FOR NOW, PUTTING ON HOLD RULING FROM THE CONSERVATIVE FIFTH CIRCUIT COURT OF APPEALS WHICH REQUIRES THE MEDICATION TO BE OBTAINED IN PERSON.
IT'S ONE OF TWO TRUCKS USED IN THE MEDICAL ABORTION REGIMEN.
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT IT IS OVERWHELMINGLY SAFE.
THE RULING CAUSED CHAOS FOR PATIENTS PLANNING TO ACCESS THE PILL PICK SUCH APPOINTMENTS HAVE GROWN MORE WIDESPREAD SINCE THE SUPREME COURT OVERTURNED ROE VERSUS WADE.
LET'S DISCUSS WITH NANCY NORTHROP PRESIDENT AND CEO OF THE CENTER FOR REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS.
YOU ACTUALLY CLICKED FOR THE FIFTH CIRCUIT, THE VERY COURT THAT WILL TO 'TELEMEDICINE ACCESS .
WITH THE SUPREME COURT NOW WAYNE ITS NEXT MOVE, WHAT IS THE IMMEDIATE IMPACT OF THIS AT LEAST TEMPORARY POLLS ON THE GROUND?
>> THE IMMEDIATE IMPACT AS YOU POINTED OUT IS THAT IT IS LEGAL RIGHT NOW TO BE ABLE TO OBTAIN THE MEDICATION ABORTION THROUGH THE TELEHEALTH VISIT AND HAVE THE PILLS MAILED TO YOUR HOME OR PICK THEM UP IN A PHARMACY AT ANY STATE WHERE ABORTION IS LEGAL.
IF YOU BACK UP AND LOOK AT WHAT LOUISIANA IS UP TO HERE AFTER THE SUPREME COURT OVERTURNED ROE VERSUS WADE THEY SAID IT WAS BACKS TO THE STATES TO DECIDE WHETHER ABORTION WOULD BE LEGAL .
WE HAVE A LOT OF STATES WHERE MILLIONS OF PEOPLE LIVE, ABORTION IS LEGAL AND THOSE STATES FOLLOW WHAT THE FDA HAS SAID IS SAFE AND EFFECTIVE.
YOU CAN HAVE A TELEHEALTH VISIT AND GET YOUR ABORTION PILLS BY MAIL .
LOUISIANA IS TRYING TO STOP THAT IN EVERY STATE OF THE U. S. WHICH WOULD BE THE CONSEQUENCE IF THE SUPREME COURT WITH THAT DECISION GO INTO EFFECT.
>> DOESN'T THAT GO AGAINST WHAT THE SUPREME COURT INITIALLY ARGUED?
I'M THINKING OF JUSTICE KAVANAUGH THAT THIS SHOULD BE ESTATE DECISION SO IF THEY HAVE A SAY IN DETERMINING WHAT HAPPENS TO ACCESS AN ESTATE WHERE ABORTION IS LEGAL, WHAT DOES THAT SAY?
DOES THAT NOT SEEM LIKE IT IS THE SUPREME COURT GOING BACK ON THEIR OWN ARGUMENTS?
>> ABSOLUTELY.
THE SUPREME COURT AT THE END OF THE DAY SHOULD MAKE SURE THAT THE FDA DECISION THAT YOU CAN GET A TELEHEALTH VISIT AND GET YOUR ABORTION PILLS BY MAIL IS SAFE AND EFFECTIVE.
THAT DECISION BASED ON STUDIES SHOULD STAND .
WHAT LOUISIANA IS TRYING TO DO IS TAKE IT ONEROUS ABORTION BAN AND TRY TO STOP OTHER STATES FROM BEING ABLE TO HAVE ACCESS TO MEDICATION ABORTION.
IT HAS BEEN SO IMPORTANT AS YOU POINTED OUT.
ONE IN FOUR ABORTION PATIENTS TODAY GETS THEIR ABORTION PILLS THROUGH A TELEHEALTH VISIT.
IF YOU DON'T LIVE NEAR A CLINIC.
IF YOU HAVE TO TAKE TIME OFF WORK THE REASON ALL OF US USE TELEHEALTH FOR MANY MEDICAL APPOINTMENTS, IT'S MUCH EASIER TO ACCESS CARE.
THAT IS TRUE FOR ABORTION PATIENTS ALSO.
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE.
>> LOUISIANA IS ARGUING , THEY SAY THAT DEALING WITH POTENTIAL COMPLICATIONS DRIVER HEALTH COST.
WHAT IS YOUR RESPONSE TO THAT CLAIM?
>> THE RESPONSE TO THAT CLAIM IS ESTABLISHED BY MANY STUDIES SAFE AND EFFECTIVE.
IN TERMS OF SAYING WE CAN'T SEEM TO ENFORCE OUR OWN CRIMINAL LAW WE CAN STOP AND INFLUENCE WHAT IS HAPPENING IN OTHER STATES IS COMPLETELY WRONG.
VOTERS AND A LOT OF STATES IN THE UNITED STATES HAVE PUT ABORTION RIGHTS IN THEIR STATE CONSTITUTION.
ARIZONA JESTED THAT IN 2024 .
THAT CAN BE STRUCK DOWN .
THEIR OWN POLICY REFERENCES CAN BE TAKEN AWAY.
LOUISIANA SAYS WE CAN'T ENFORCE OUR LOVE SO WE WILL GO TO OTHER STATES AND TALK ABOUT WHAT THEY ARE ABLE TO ACCESS.
THAT IS WRONG.
>> WE WILL TAKE A STEP BACK AND REMIND OUR VIEWERS THAT SEVERAL DECADES AGO THE FDA APPROVED MIFEPRISTONE TO BE SAFE AND EFFECTIVE FOR WOMEN TO USE.
WE HEARD THE ARGUMENTS LEADING UP TO THE 2024 CASE THE SUPREME COURT THREW OUT A CHALLENGE BECAUSE THEY SAID THE PHYSICIANS BRINGING THE SUIT LACKED STANDING.
NOW YOU HAVE ESTATE AS THE PLAINTIFF DO YOU THINK THIS GIVES THE CONSERVATIVE JUSTICES THE LEGAL OPENING PERHAPS THEY HAVE AND WAITING FOR TO OVERRIDE THE FDA ONCE AND FOR ALL?
>> I CERTAINLY HOPE NOT.
LOUISIANA SHOULD NOT BE MAKING POLICY FOR THE FDA ACROSS THE NATION .
LITIGATING THAT CASE, UNFORTUNATELY THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS TRYING TO TAKE A SECOND LOOK AT THAT DECISION .
ALL OF THIS, WHAT LOUISIANA IS DOING AND WHAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS DOING HIS POLITICS.
THE SCIENCE AND RESEARCH ARE CLEAR.
MEDICATION ABORTION A SAFE AND EFFECTIVE.
IT'S BEEN ON THE MARKET FOR OVER 25 YEARS.
EVEN LONGER OTHER PLACES IN THE WORLD.
IT SHOULD BE ACCESSIBLE FOR PATIENTS IN THE UNITED STATES.
>> THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS NOT OFFICIALLY OUT REVERSED THE FDA DECISION YET BUT THEY ARE CONDUCTING, QUOTE, A COMPLETE REVIEW .
WHAT DOES A COMPLETE REVIEW AT THIS POINT SO MANY DECADES LATER LOOK LIKE?
IS IT WARRANTED?
>> IT IS CERTAINLY NOT WARNED.
YOU WOULD HAVE TO ASK THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE REVIEW.
IT IS NOT WARNED.
IT'S BEEN PROVEN AGAIN AND AGAIN TO BE SAFE AND EFFECTIVE.
THE FDA TOOK STEPS AND WE LEARNED DURING COVID IT CAN BE DONE THROUGH TELEHEALTH MAILING THE ABORTION PILL TO YOUR HOME .
IT IS SO IMPORTANT AS I SAID BEFORE FOR PEOPLE WHO DO NOT LIVE DEAR CLINICS AND CANNOT TAKE TIME OFF WORK , IT HURTS THOSE THAT ARE MOST VULNERABLE.
THEY ARE THE ONES THAT NEED THE BEST WAY TO ACCESS THE CARE.
>> IF ACCESS IS RESTRICTED CLINICS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO PIVOT TO OTHER PROTOCOLS WHICH HAVE A HIGHER RATE OF SIDE EFFECTS.
IF WE SEE A HIGHER SEARCH IN THOSE WHAT IS THE MEDICAL REALITY GOING TO LOOK LIKE IN THIS COUNTRY FOR WOMEN?
>> THERE ARE SAFE PROTOCOLS FOR USING THE OTHER MEDICATION THAT IS USED IN ABORTION PILLS WHICH IS --THAT SHOULD BE A DECISION THAT EACH PROVIDER IS MAKING BASED ON PATIENT CIRCUMSTANCES, BASED ON EXPERIENCE AND EVIDENCE.
THERE ARE OTHER SAFE PROTOCOLS BUT YOU DON'T TAKE A SAFE METHOD AWAY FROM PROVIDERS TO MAKE A DECISION FOR POLITICAL REASONS WHICH IS WHAT LOUISIANA IS UP TO.
>> WHAT ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT THE CONSEQUENCES IN THE SHORT- TERM AND LONG-TERM WILL BE FROM THIS?
>> I AM WORRIED THAT EXACTLY WHAT WE FEARED WOULD HAPPEN WHICH IS THAT RETURNING ABORTION TO THE STATES TO DECIDE IS NOT WHERE IT'S GOING TO BE LEFT.
I BELIEVE THOSE OPPOSED TO ABORTION ARE SEEKING TO GET A NATIONWIDE BAN AND THIS IS THE FIRST STEP OF IT WHAT LOUISIANA IS TRYING TO DO WHICH IS BAN THE USE OF TELEMEDICINE, BUT IT WILL NOT BE THE LAST STEP.
IT IS REALLY IMPORTANT THAT SUPPORTERS OF ACCESS TO SAFE AND LEGAL ABORTION BE AWARE .
I WAS TALKING TO SOMEBODY THAT LIVED IN CALIFORNIA THAT SAID I DID NOT THINK IT WOULD APPLY IN CALIFORNIA .
I SAID ABSOLUTELY.
THAT IS WHAT WOULD HAPPEN.
YOU COULD NOT CALL YOUR PROVIDER WITHIN CALIFORNIA AND GET YOUR MEDICATION ABORTION PILLS BY MAIL.
>> HOW ARE YOU ACTIVELY PREPARING CLINICS IN THOSE STATES WHERE ABORTION IS LEGAL FOR WHEN THE COURT FULLY WEIGHS IN?
>> WE HAVE CLIENTS, PROVIDERS ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
WE COUNSEL THEM ON WHAT THE LAW IS.
THEY ARE PREPARING BASED ON THEIR OWN CIRCUMSTANCES OF WHAT WILL BE THE BEST THING TO DO.
THE IMPORTANT THING IS FOR PATIENTS OUT THERE IN THE UNITED STATES TO CALL THEIR TRUSTED PROVIDERS IN THEIR COMMUNITIES AND FIND OUT WHAT THE SITUATION IS.
THERE ARE STILL BRICK AND MORTAR CLINICS PEOPLE CAN GO TO.
THERE MAY BE OTHER OPTIONS FOR TELEHEALTH.
THE IMPORTANT THING IS TO CALL YOUR TRUSTED PROVIDER AND FIND OUT.
DON'T JUST MAKE ASSUMPTIONS LISTENING TO THE NEWS ABOUT WHAT YOU THINK IS AVAILABLE OR NOT.
>> NANCY, WE'VE BEEN HOPING TO HAVE YOU ON THE PROGRAM FOR A WHILE NOW.
I'M GLAD YOU WERE ABLE TO JOIN US TODAY LAYING OUT THE REALITY SO MANY PROVIDERS, WOMEN AND FAMILIES ACROSS THE COUNTRY ARE HAVING TO DEAL WITH NOW.
THANK YOU FOR THE TIME.
> >> THE TEMPERATURE OF AMERICAN POLITICS HAS BEEN RISING FOR SOME TIME.
THE UNITED STATES HAS SEEN TROUBLING ATTACKS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM INCLUDING ANOTHER ATTEMPT ON PRESIDENT TRUMP'S LIFE.
AMERICANS ARE ASKING WHAT IS CAUSING THE DANGEROUS UPTICK.
IN A RECENT ARTICLE PROFESSOR BARBARA S WALTER ANSWERS THAT QUESTION.
SHE JOINS HARI SREENIVASAN TO DISCUSS.
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.
YOU WROTE A SUBSTACK TITLED "POLITICAL VIOLENCE IS HERE TO STAY" , AMERICA HAS ALL THE CONDITIONS OF VIOLENCE AND NO SIGNS OF CHANGE.
WE ARE HAVING THE CONVERSATION IN THE WAKE OF THE THIRD PRESIDENTIAL ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT .
WHAT DOES THIS SAY ABOUT POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN THE U. S. TODAY?
>> WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT POLITICAL VIOLENCE IS THAT HAPPENS UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.
IT HAPPENS MOST FREQUENTLY IN COUNTRIES THAT ARE PSEUDO- DEMOCRACIES.
MOST COUNTRIES THINK FULL DEMOCRACIES ARE REALLY SAFE AND YOU DON'T HAVE A LOT OF VIOLENCE.
THE CLOSER YOU GET TO BE IN A NORTH KOREA OR CHINA THE MORE VIOLENCE YOU WILL SEE.
THAT IS NOT TRUE.
AUTOCRACIES TEND TO BE ALMOST AS PEACEFUL AND STABLE AS FULL, HEALTHY DEMOCRACIES.
IF YOU LOOK WHERE THE VIOLENCE HAPPENS, IT ALL HAPPENS IN THE MIDDLE.
IT SPIKES AS DEMOCRACIES ARE DECLINING, ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE DECLINING RAPIDLY.
ONCE THEY GET TO THE MIDDLE ZONE THAT IS PEAK VIOLENCE.
THAT IS BASED ON PRETTY MUCH EVERY DATA SET OUT THERE.
THAT IS THE FIRST AND MOST IMPORTANT CONDITION.
THE SECOND IS WHEN POLITICS AND THESE PARTIAL DEMOCRACIES GETS DEFINED BY IDENTITY RATHER THAN IDEOLOGY.
IT IS WHEN VOTERS JOIN PARTIES NOT BECAUSE THEY ARE CONSERVATIVE OR LIBERAL.
THAT IS A HEALTHY POLITICAL SYSTEM.
IT'S WHEN THEY JOIN A PARTY BECAUSE THEY ARE BLACK OR WHITE, CHRISTIAN OR MUSLIM, THOSE ARE THE MOST DESTABILIZING CONDITIONS.
A PARTIAL DEMOCRACY WITH THESE REALLY TRIBAL POLITICS.
YOU ADD A FEW ADDITIONAL FEATURES.
YOU ADD EASILY ACCESSIBLE GUNS.
THE UNITED STATES THE UNITED STATES HAS THE HIGHEST PER CAPITA GUN OWNERSHIP OF ANY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD BY A LOT.
GUN OWNERSHIP IS RISING ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF PEOPLE.
IT USED TO BE MOST GUNS OF THE UNITED STATES WERE HELD BY A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION, THEY TEND TO BE CONSERVATIVE.
SINCE 2024 YOU HAVE STARTED TO SEE MORE WOMEN, MINORITIES, MORE PEOPLE ON THE LEFT BUYING GUNS.
THE FOURTH THING WE KNOW IS THAT THE TYPE OF VIOLENCE THAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY, YOU CAN CALL IT DOMESTIC TERRORISM, YOU CAN CALL IT POLITICAL VIOLENCE, IS OVERWHELMINGLY CAUSED BY WHAT WE CALL LOAN ACTORS.
THESE ARE INDIVIDUALS ACTING ALONE .
THEY ARE OVERWHELMINGLY YOUNG, MALE, AND THEY HAVE BEEN RADICALIZED ONLINE.
>> LET'S BREAK THAT DOWN A LITTLE BIT.
YOU SAY THE DATA FROM THE NATIONAL CONSORTIUM OF RESPONSE FOR TERRORISM SHOWS THAT EVENTS INCREASED BY MORE THAN 30%.
A DIFFERENT ANALYSIS FOUND THAT MORE THAN 520 PLOTS AND VIOLENT INCIDENTS HAPPEN IN JUST THE FIRST HALF OF 2025.
THAT IS UP 40% WITHIN A YEARS TIME.
CLEARLY THERE ARE MORE PEOPLE WHO ARE WILLING TO SAY THAT POLITICAL VIOLENCE IS OKAY.
>> YES.
THEN THE QUESTION IS, WHY DO THEY THINK THIS?
I THINK THERE'S A MULTITUDE OF REASONS.
ONE IS THAT WE HAVE A PRESIDENT AND PARTY LEADERSHIP ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE WHO ARE WILLING TO CONDONE IT, NORMALIZE IT, GIVE IMMUNITY TO IT, AND THAT WAS NOT THE CASE EVEN 20 YEARS AGO.
WHEN THERE WAS AN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT ON A POLITICIAN, BOTH PARTIES WOULD COME TOGETHER AND IMMEDIATELY CONDEMN IT, IMMEDIATELY SHOW REAL SYMPATHY TOWARDS THE TARGET.
NOW YOU DON'T SEE THAT ANYMORE.
NOW IT'S, WELL HE DESERVED IT .
OR THAT'S WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU DO XY AND Z. IT'S THIS ENVIRONMENT OF HATE ALSO .
WE ARE IN A PLACE WHERE MEMBERS OF EACH PARTY SEE THE OTHER AS THEIR ENEMY.
THEY DO NOT WANT THEIR CHILDREN TO MARRY SOMEONE FROM THE OTHER PARTY.
THOSE ATTITUDES ARE MUCH STRONGER ON THE RIGHT THAN ON THE LEFT SO IT IS NOT EQUAL, BUT IT IS GROWING ON THE LEFT.
JUST AS GUN OWNERSHIP IS GROWING ON THE LEFT.
YOU HAVE A SENSE OF HATE .
A SENSE OF VIOLENCE IN PURSUIT OF YOUR POLITICAL IDEALS IS JUSTIFIED.
THAT IS IN PART WHY YOU SEE IT GROWING.
>> WE'VE BEEN HEARING ABOUT THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE FILTER BUBBLE AND THE ECHO CHAMBER SPECIFICALLY AROUND YOUNG MEN WHO SEEM IMPRESSIONABLE.
THEY HAVE THEIR OWN FRUSTRATIONS ABOUT THE ECONOMY, JOB LOSS, WHATEVER IT IS AND THEY SEEM TO GO DOWN THESE RABBIT HOLES.
IS THERE ANY IDEA OF HOW THAT IS CONTRIBUTING SPECIFICALLY TO THIS SORT OF LONE WOLF TYPE OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE?
>> I THINK THE SINGLE DRIVE BIGGEST DRIVER OF THIS INCREASE IN POLITICAL VIOLENCE IS THE SOCIAL MEDIA ENVIRONMENT FULL STOP.
WE KNOW THAT YOUNG MEN ARE STRUGGLING.
WE ARE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHY THAT IS THE CASE BUT THEY ARE DISPROPORTIONATELY DRAWN TO A LOT OF THESE EXTREME SITES AND CHAT ROOMS.
WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS IS THERE IS SOME UNDERLYING GRIEVANCE .
HERE IN THE UNITED STATES THEY'VE LOST THEIR JOB .
THEY ARE LOOKING AROUND AND THEY ARE SEEING IMMIGRANTS IN THEIR COMMUNITY WHO ARE GETTING THE JOBS .
THEY SEE PEOPLE BECOMING BILLIONAIRES IN SILICON VALLEY AND A LOT OF THEM WERE NOT BORN HERE AND DON'T LOOK LIKE THEM.
THEY HAVE THAT GRIEVANCE.
WHY IS THIS NOT HAPPENING TO ME.
WHY AM I GETTING WORSE OFF.
MY COUNTRY IS CHANGING.
I WANT IT BACK.
THEN THEY GO ONLINE AND WHAT STUDIES HAVE SHOWN IS THEY HAVE TRACKED EXACTLY HOW THEY BECOME MORE RADICAL THE LONGER THEY STAY ONLINE.
IT DOES NOT HAPPEN INITIALLY.
THEY MIGHT GO ONLINE AND THEY WILL TAPE SOMETHING LIKE MUSLIMS IN AMERICA.
THE ALGORITHM FEEDS THEM MORE AND MORE EXTREME.
IT DOES NOT STAY NEUTRAL.
MORE EXTREME MATERIAL AND THAT IS HOW IT HAPPENS.
THE BIG QUESTIONS THAT RESEARCHERS HAVE IS THAT, OKAY, YOU BECOME MORE RADICAL IN YOUR BELIEFS AND IDEOLOGY AND HATRED, BUT THERE'S A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YOUR ATTITUDE AND ACTUALLY PICKING UP A GUN AND KILLING SOMEBODY.
WE KNOW ONLY A MINORITY OF PEOPLE THAT ARE RADICALIZED ONLINE ACTUALLY TAKE THAT LIST --LAST STEP BUT THEY DO.
THAT COULD BE PARTLY A MENTAL HEALTH ISSUE.
YOU LOOK AT A LOT OF THESE LOAN ACTORS AND THEY DON'T HAVE STABLE LIVES.
THEY DON'T SEEM TO BE OPERATED ON STABLE GROUND SO THERE IS PROBABLY AN ELEMENT OF THAT AS WELL.
>> HOW DOES DESPAIR KEY INTO POLITICAL VIOLENCE?
SOME OF THE PEOPLE THAT HAVE BEEN BEHIND THE ATTACKS LIKE ATTACKS ON CHARLIE KIRK, THE PRESIDENT, UNITED HEALTHCARE CEO THERE IS JUST SAY FRUSTRATION THEY EXPRESS WHERE IT SEEMS LIKE THEY ARE IN A SYSTEM THAT IS NOT GOING TO WORK SO THEY FEEL LIKE TAKING THEIR MATTERS INTO THEIR OWN HANDS.
>> YOU CALL IT DESPAIR.
I FRAME IT AS A LOSS OF HOPE.
PEOPLE WILL WORK IN THE SYSTEM.
THEY WILL GO THROUGH CONVENTIONAL POLITICAL CHANNELS AS LONG AS THEY THINK THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT THAT WILL ACTUALLY FIX THE PROBLEM THEY CARE ABOUT.
WHEN THEY COME TO BELIEVE AND DESPAIR THAT ANYTHING WILL EVER CHANGE, SUDDENLY THEY SHIFT.
THEY GO FROM, I'M NOT GOING TO WORK WITHIN THE SYSTEM ANYMORE.
I'M GOING TO TURN TO VIOLENCE.
IF YOU LOOK HISTORICALLY AT THE VIOLENT TERRORIST GROUPS, HAMAS, THE IRA, THE TIGERS THEY DID NOT START AS VIOLENT ORGANIZATIONS.
THEY STARTED AS POLITICAL ORGANIZATIONS.
THE IRA HAS BEEN AROUND SINCE THE 1920S AND THEY ACTUALLY MODELED THEIR ORGANIZATION AGAINST THE CIVIL RIGHTS MOVEMENT IN THE UNITED STATES.
THEY HAD MARCHES, STRIKES, THEY DID ALL OF THAT.
IT WAS ONLY AFTER THEY SAW THAT NOTHING WAS EVER GOING TO CHANGE AS LONG AS THEY WORKED IN THE SYSTEM THAT THE EXTREME MEMBERS OF THE GROUP WHO WERE IN THE BACKGROUND SAYING IT'S NOT GOING TO WORK YOU NEED TO TURN TO VIOLENCE, THE MODERATES IN THE GROUP EVENTUALLY SAID YOU ARE PROBABLY RIGHT.
THAT IS WHEN YOU SEE THE SHIFT TO VIOLENCE.
DESPAIR PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE .
>> ONE OF THE IMPORTANT THINGS WE'VE BEEN FAMILIAR WITH THE PAST FEW YEARS IS THE RISE OF CLINICAL VIOLENCE FROM FAR RIGHT GROUPS.
WE SAW WHEN THE PRESIDENT CAME INTO OFFICE THE FIRST TIME AROUND WE CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN THAT BUT WHAT YOU ALSO DOCUMENT HERE IS THAT THERE IS AN UPTICK IN POLITICAL VIOLENCE FROM THE LEFT.
HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THAT?
>> IT IS SMALL BUT MEANINGFUL.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF CLINICAL VIOLENCE , SINCE ABOUT 2008 HAS BEEN PERPETRATED BY THE FAR RIGHT.
EVEN TODAY AFTER AN UPTICK ON THE LEFT, IT IS MUCH MORE LEASED WILL HAS KILLED MORE PEOPLE BY A MAGNITUDE OF 10 SO IT IS MUCH BIGGER ON THE RIGHT.
THE LEFT HAD BEEN QUIET UNTIL RECENTLY.
SINCE 2024, SINCE TRUMP CAME BACK TO OFFICE YOU ARE SEEING MORE ATTACKS FROM THE LEFT THAT CONTINUES IN 2025.
THERE IS ONE STATISTIC THAT SHOWS THAT 2024 WAS THE FIRST YEAR WHERE THERE WERE MORE ATTACKS FROM THE FAR LEFT THAN THE FAR RIGHT.
THAT IS IN LARGE PART BECAUSE ATTACKS FROM THE FAR RIGHT DECREASED IN 2024 .
THEIR GUY IS IN POWER.
THEY HAVE THE KEYS TO THE CADILLAC SO THEY DON'T REALLY NEED TO TURN TO VIOLENCE RIGHT NOW, BUT STILL YOU ARE SEEING IT FROM BOTH SIDES.
THEY ARE DIFFERENT .
THE WAY THEY USE VIOLENCE IS DIFFERENT AND WHO THEY TARGET IS DIFFERENT.
THE FAR RIGHT HAS OVERWHELMINGLY BEEN VIOLENCE DRIVEN BY WHITE NATIONALISM.
IT TENDS TO BE TARGETED AT MINORITIES.
THE THREE BIG TARGETS ARE BLACK AMERICANS , JEWS AND LGBTQ CITIZENS.
LATINOS ARE ALSO INCLUDED IN THEIR, WOMEN, THESE ARE WHITE NATIONALISTS WHO WANT TO REASSERT WHITE MALE DOMINANCE AND THIS IS THE WAY SOME OF THEM ARE CHOOSING TO DO THAT.
THEY TEND TO TARGET INDIVIDUALS.
THE LEFT TENDS TO TARGET INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE GOVERNMENT .
IT IS LAW ENFORCEMENT, POLITICIANS WHO ARE VOTING IN WAYS THEY DO NOT AGREE WITH.
IT IS DIFFERENT AND IT IS DRIVEN BY A DIFFERENT SET OF GRIEVANCES ON BOTH SIDES.
>> WE SEEM TO COLLECTIVELY PUT A SOCIAL DISTANCE TO ACTS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE.
WE CAPTURE LOANABLE FACTORS QUICKLY, GIVEN VERY PUBLIC TRIALS AND LONG SENTENCES.
IT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE DETERRING MORE ACTS.
>> IF YOU LOOK AT THE DATA OVER TIME WE ARE NOT CONSISTENT IN HOW WE PROSECUTE THESE GROUPS.
THE PREVIOUS PEAK OF DOMESTIC TERRORISM WAS 1995.
THAT IS WHEN TIMOTHY McVEIGH BOMBED THE FEDERAL BUILDING IN OKLAHOMA CITY.
THAT WAS A WAKE-UP CALL TO THE FBI.
AFTER THAT THEY HAD A VERY WELL- ORGANIZED, AGGRESSIVE CAMPAIGN TO FIGURE OUT WHO THE EXTREMISTS WERE WITHIN THE COUNTRY, HOW THEY WERE OPERATING, AND THEY WENT AFTER THEM.
HE SAW A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN THESE GROUPS IN MEMBERSHIP INTO THESE GROUPS.
THAT CHANGED UNDER TRUMP .
HE DOES NOT WANT THESE GROUPS PROSECUTED.
HIS ATTITUDE TO JANUARY 6 PEOPLE WHO ATTACKED THE CAPITOL, HE GAVE THEM IMMUNITY.
WE DID GO AFTER THEM AND HE RELEASED THEM.
HE HAS TOLD OTHERS THAT THEY WOULD HAVE IMMUNITY IF THEY SUPPORTED HIM UNCONDITIONALLY.
IF YOU WERE TO LOOK AT THE DATA, TRUMP HAS GIVEN THE ORDER THAT WE ARE NOT GOING AFTER THESE GROUPS ANYMORE.
AGAIN, THEIR ABILITY TO OPERATE AND GROW AND TRAIN IS RELATED TO HOW MUCH FREEDOM AND TOLERANCE THEY ARE GIVEN.
RIGHT NOW THEY ARE GIVEN A LOT OF TOLERANCE.
>> THE MORE TROUBLING PART OF THE RECENT NOTE, YOU KIND OF ENDS THE PIECE BY SAYING THE UNITED STATES IS ENTERING A PERIOD OF 10 TO 20 YEARS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE.
HOW DO WE KNOW THAT WE'VE GONE FROM ISOLATED INCIDENTS TO ELEVATED VIOLENCE TO CIVIL WAR, PUT US IN THAT CONTINUUM.
>> IT IS OVERWHELMINGLY INSURGENCY IS THE REAL WARFARE.
IT IS MALICIOUS, PARAMILITARY GROUPS.
SOMETIMES THEY ARE WORKING TOGETHER BUT SOMETIMES THEY ARE DOING THEIR OWN THING, SORT OF PARALLEL PLAY.
IT IS INTERESTING.
I ACTUALLY THINK THE RISK OF CIVIL WAR UNDER TRUMP HAS DECLINED SOMEWHAT BECAUSE THE MILITIAS AND THE GROUPS THAT WERE TRAINING FOR WAR WERE ALL ON THE FAR RIGHT.
THE PROUD BOYS AND THE ACCELERATION IS AND ALL OF THESE GROUP'S THAT ACTUALLY WANT TODAY'S CIVIL WAR TO ESSENTIALLY CLEAN HOUSE AND MAKE AMERICA PURE AND WHITE AGAIN THEY HAVE BECOME QUITE QUIET UNDER TRUMP AND AGAIN THAT IS BECAUSE THEIR GRIEVANCES HAVE DECLINED.
IN THEIR PLACE YOU ARE SEEING MORE OF THESE LOAN ACTORS.
LOAN ACTORS FROM A CIVIL WAR PERSPECTIVE, INSURGENCY GUERRILLA WARFARE PERSPECTIVE ARE LESS THREATENING.
THEY ARE NOT ORGANIZED FOR THAT, THEY ARE NOT TRAINING FOR THAT.
THEY WOULD BE MUCH LESS LETHAL THAN VERY WELL-TRAINED MILITIAS WHICH EVERY STATE HAS.
SO WHO IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE MATTERS .
THE FAR RIGHT, THESE WHITE NATIONALISTS , IF WE WERE TO GET A DEMOCRAT IN THE WHITE HOUSE AGAIN, IF THAT DEMOCRAT WAS A WOMAN OF COLOR, FOR EXAMPLE, THEY ARE READY TO TRAIN AGAIN.
THERE IS TO PREVENT AMERICA FROM BECOMING A NONWHITE MAJORITY COUNTRY WHICH IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS.
THEY WILL JUST BE REINVIGORATED.
IT REALLY DEPENDS ON WHO IS IN POWER AND HOW THREATENED THOSE REALLY RADICAL GROUPS THAT ARE WELL ARMED, TRAINED, ORGANIZED, WHO WANT WAR, WHETHER THEY FEEL THREATENED OR NOT.
>> BARBARA THANK YOU SO MUCH .
>> THANK YOU.
IT WAS A PLEASURE TO BE HERE.
> >> WE'VE ALL HEARD OF THE FIRST MAN ON THE MOON.
WHAT ABOUT THE FIRST AMERICAN IN SPACE.
ON THIS DAY 1961 ALAN SHEPHERD PILOTED THE FREEDOM SEVEN COMPLETING A SUBORBITAL FLIGHT BEFORE SAFELY RETURNING TO EARTH.
THE U. S. MAY HAVE FALLEN BEHIND THE SOVIET BUT THE SHORT JOURNEY PAVED THE WAY FOR ARMSTRONG'S ICONIC LUNAR LANDING EIGHT YEARS LATER.
FAST FORWARD TO TODAY THE ARTEMIS TO MISSION SET THE RECORD FOR THE FARTHEST DISTANCE A HUMAN HAS TRAVELED FROM OUR PLANET ALL THANKS TO A TRAILBLAZING VOYAGE 65 YEARS AGO.
> >> IF YOU WANT TO FIND OUT WHAT IS COMING UP ON THE SHOW EACH NIGHT SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER.
THANK YOU FOR WATCHING .
JOIN US AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.
>