President & Convicted Felon: Historian on the Unprecedented Trump Verdict

WELL, IT IS A VERDICT THAT WILL BE FOREVER CEMENTED IN HISTORY.

AND ALMOST 250 YEARS OF AMERICA AS WE KNOW IT, NO U.S. PRESIDENT HAS BEEN CONVICTED OF A CRIME UNTIL THIS WEEK.

SO WHERE DOES THIS MOMENT STAND IN THE LONGER ARC OF U.S. HISTORY?

WE SPEAK TO TO 20.

>> WHAT THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CONTEXT OF PRESIDENTIAL HISTORY -- HOW SIGNIFICANT WAS THIS?

>> WELL, THIS WAS YESTERDAY'S GUILTY VERDICT IN THE NEW YORK STATE CASE AGAINST DONALD TRUMP.

IT WAS SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRESIDENTIAL HISTORY.

IT HAS TWO SIGNIFICANCES.

THE FIRST IS A VERY SIMPLE ONE.

IT IS ONE THAT WILL BE REMEMBERED FOR ALL TIME.

THAT'S THAT IN THIS COUNTRY, EVEN THE MOST POWERFUL CAN BE FOUND GUILTY, CAN BE INDICTED AND CONVICTED BY A JURY OF THEIR PEERS.

NO FORMER PRESIDENT, NO PRESIDENT HAS EVER BEEN CONVICTED OF A CRIME, AND WE HAVE JUST ESTABLISHED A PRECEDENT THAT WILL GO ON FOREVER.

THAT SIGNIFICANCE IS EASY TO UNDERSTAND.

THE SECOND ONE, WELL, WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO UNDERSTAND.

THE SECOND SIGNIFICANCE IS TO OUR POLITICS.

WE'VE NEVER HAD ONE OF THE TWO PRINCIPAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FOUND GUILTY OF A CRIME DURING A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

WE TALK ABOUT OCTOBER SURPRISES.

THOSE ARE SURPRISES THAT OCCUR AT THE END OF AN ELECTION THAT COULD -- PARTICULARLY IN A CLOSE ELECTION, SHIFT ENOUGH VOTERS ONE WAY OR THE OTHER TO ALTER THE OUTCOME.

WELL THIS IS THE MAY SURPRISE BUT WE DON'T KNOW THE CONSEQUENCES FOR THE ELECTION.

ONE OF THE PRESUMED TWO MAJOR PARTY CANDIDATES BEING FOUND GUILTY.

WHAT WE CAN PREDICT IS THAT SOME OF THE RHETORIC OF THIS CAMPAIGN WILL SHIFT, AND REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO FOCUS ON THE RULE OF LAW IN OUR LEGAL INSTITUTIONS.

IF YOU SAY THAT WE HAVE THE RULE OF LAW AND YOU SAY THAT JUSTICE IS IMPARTIAL IN AMERICA, THEN DONALD TRUMP IS A CONVICTED FELON.

AND HOW DO YOU NOMINATE A CONVICTED FELON TO LEAD YOUR PARTY TO THE PRESIDENCY?

SO WE CAN ANTICIPATE A TORRENT OF TOXIC LANGUAGE THAT IS GOING TO SEEK TO WEAKEN THE INSTITUTIONS OF OUR LEGAL SYSTEM , THE WAY THE STOP THE STEAL CAMPAIGN SOUGHT TO WEAKEN AMERICAN TRUST IN OUR ELECTORAL SYSTEMS.

WE KNOW THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE STOP THE STEAL CAMPAIGN.

THE TRAGIC CONSEQUENCES CULMINATING IN JANUARY 6th.

WE CAN'T TELL WHAT THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE LIKELY ATTACK ON OUR JUDICIAL SYSTEM WILL BE THIS TIME.

>> YESTERDAY, ONE OF MY NEIGHBORS SAID TO ME, HEY, LOOK, NIXON DIDN'T GO TO JAIL.

RIGHT?

IF, IN HIS MIND, IF THIS GOT TO A POINT WHERE HE SAW THE IMAGE OF THIS PRESIDENT EVEN FOR A DAY BEHIND BARS, FOR HIM, THAT IS A RUBICON THAT CANNOT BE CROSSED BECAUSE IT CAN HAPPEN TO THIS PRESIDENT.

WHAT'S TO SAY THAT EVERY PRESIDENT AFTER, WHEN THEY LEAVE OFFICE, WON'T BE TRIED ON CHARGE X OR Y FROM A POLITICAL OPPONENT?

>> WELL, I BELIEVE THAT RICHARD NIXON CERTAINLY SHOULD'VE BEEN INDICTED.

THE REASONS WHY GERALD FORD PARDONED NIXON ARE UNDERSTANDABLE.

GERALD FORD WAS A GREAT AMERICAN.

HE STABILIZED OUR SYSTEM, RESTORED SOME TRUST IN GOVERNMENT.

BUT I THINK THE MISTAKE HE MADE WAS NOT TO WAIT FOR THE INDICTMENT SO THAT THE CRIMES THAT PRESIDENT NIXON ALLEGEDLY COMMITTED WOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE TO SEE.

LET'S TALK ABOUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NIXON CASE AND THE TRUMP CASE.

I THINK THAT IS WHY THE INDICTMENTS WERE IMPORTANT.

AT LEAST THE ABILITY OF GRAND JURIES TO INDICT OR IMPORTANT AFTER THE TRUMP PRESIDENCY.

PRESIDENT TRUMP, UNLIKE RICHARD NIXON, SOUGHT TO REMAIN PART OF OUR POLITICAL WORLD.

RICHARD NIXON KNEW HIS CAREER WAS OVER.

HE COULDN'T RUN AGAIN.

HE HAD BEEN ELECTED TWICE.

HE WASN'T PLANNING TO DISRUPT OUR POLITICAL SYSTEM IN EXILE.

DONALD TRUMP DID NOT ACCEPT THE OUTCOME OF THE 2020 ELECTION , AND THEREFORE, WAS PLANNING TO CONTINUE HIS CAMPAIGN TO BE PRESIDENT.

SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE CLEAR.

GERALD FORD WAS THINKING THAT HE WOULD ALLOW RICHARD NIXON A MORE PEACEFUL POLITICAL EXILE.

GERALD FORD DID NOT PARDON NIXON SO THAT NIXON COULD RETURN AS A POLITICAL FIGURE.

DONALD TRUMP DECIDED TO RETURN AS A POLITICAL FIGURE, AND SO, HE, IN A SENSE, MANDATED THAT HIS CRIMES -- NOT HIS ALLEGED CRIMES, BE TRIED, BECAUSE IT IS NOT HEALTHY FOR A POLITICAL SYSTEM TO HAVE A FELON AS PRESIDENT.

I THINK THERE ARE TWO DIFFERENCES.

ONE LAST POINT, AND IT'S FAIR ON THE PART OF THOSE WHO WORRY ABOUT POLITICAL TRIALS -- IF YOU ASSUME THAT EVERY TRIAL OF A POWERFUL PERSON IS POLITICAL, RIGHT, AND A PRESIDENT BEING TRIED AFTER HE OR SHE LEAVES OFFICE PUTS US IN THE SAME CATEGORY AS COUNTRIES WITH LOW POLITICAL TRUST -- ON THE OTHER HAND, IF YOU RESPECT OUR INSTITUTIONS, YOU SHOULD THINK THAT A GRAND JURY SHOULD HAVE THE ABILITY TO INDICT A POWERFUL PERSON, REGARDLESS OF WHAT POSITION IT IS.

I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT FOR SOCIETY THAT EVERYBODY, REGARDLESS OF HOW HIGH THEY RISE IN OUR ELITE, UNDERSTAND THAT IF THEY COMMIT A CRIME, THEY WILL BE HELD RESPONSIBLE.

WE DON'T WANT TO LIVE IN A SOCIETY WHERE ONCE SOMEBODY BECOMES PRESIDENT, THEY KNOW THAT FOREVER, THEY WILL NEVER BE TRIED OR INDICTED BECAUSE THAT WOULD SEEM TO BE POLITICAL.

THAT WOULD BE DANGEROUS.

THAT WOULD BE GIVING A BLANK CHECK TO ANY FUTURE PRESIDENT THAT NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO, DON'T WORRY.

IN OUR COUNTRY, YOU CAN'T BE INDICTED BECAUSE YOU WERE ONCE OUR HEAD OF STATE.

>> IS THERE ANYTHING WE CAN LEARN FROM OTHER COUNTRIES WHO HAVE HAD SIMILAR CHALLENGES WITH THEIR LEADERSHIP?

WHETHER THEY HAVE BEEN CONVICTED OR TRIED -- WHAT IS THE BEST LESSONS THAT WE CAN TAKE?

>> DON'T ELECT CONVICTS TO OFFICE.

THAT IS THE BEST ADVICE.

HERE IS WHERE THE UNPRECEDENTED IS ACTUALLY PRECEDENTED.

OUR COUNTRY HAS BEEN LUCKY DUE TO TWO THINGS.

THE STRENGTH OF ITS INSTITUTIONS, AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF ITS HEADS OF STATE COULDN'T CONCEIVE OF THE BEHAVIOR THAT DONALD TRUMP HAS EXHIBITED.

THAT WE HAVE NEVER FACED -- NEVER FACED THE PROSPECT OF A CONVICTED CORRUPT MAN COMING INTO THE OFFICE -- OVAL OFFICE.

BUT MANY COUNTRIES HAVE.

SADLY, TOO MANY COUNTRIES HAVE FOUND POWERFUL MEANT SEEKING TO OBTAIN OR ACQUIRE POWER TO AVOID THE CONSEQUENCES OF THEIR ACTIONS AND THEN TO STAY IN POWER AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO AVOID TRIALS TO COME.

THERE ARE SO MANY COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD WHERE YOU HAVE LEADERS -- REALLY, DICTATORS, WHO DON'T LEAVE OFFICE BECAUSE THEY ARE FEARFUL THERE WILL BE A DAY OF RECKONING, SHOULD THEY CONTROL ALL THE LEVERS OF POWER IN THEIR COUNTRY.

>> YOU STUDY LEGACIES.

AT ONE POINT, YOU DIRECTED THE NIXON PRESIDENTIAL LIBRARY.

HISTORY IS SOMETIMES KINDER TO THE LEGACY OF PRESIDENTS WITH THE BENEFIT OF TIME.

NIXON LARGELY STAYED OUT OF PUBLIC LIFE, BUT SAY, PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON WHO WAS IMPEACHED, HE IS ACTIVE ON THE WORLD STAGE.

WHAT HAPPENS TO PRESIDENT TRUMP?

DOES THIS BECOME A SMALL ASTERISK?

DOES THIS BECOME A DEFINING CHARACTERISTIC?

>> WELL, DONALD TRUMP'S HISTORY HASN'T BEEN FULLY WRITTEN YET.

I THINK A LOT OF IT HAS TO DO WITH WHAT HAPPENS IN NOVEMBER.

IF HE RETURNS TO POWER, ONE COULD PREDICT THAT HE WILL TRY TO UNDERMINE OUR LEGAL SYSTEM BY USING THE PRESIDENTIAL PARDON TO TRY TO MESS WITH AT LEAST THE TWO FEDERAL CASES THAT HE STILL FACES.

THAT WILL BE PART OF HIS HISTORY.

IT IS VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO KNOW IN ADVANCE WHAT MY FUTURE COLLEAGUES IN 30 YEARS WILL WRITE ABOUT DONALD TRUMP.

I MEAN, WHEN WE ARE LOOKING SOLELY AT HIS FIRST TERM -- THAT'S HIS FIRST TERM, AS OPPOSED TO HIS ONLY TERM -- WHEN WE ARE FOCUSED ON THE IRAN WAR, WHICH ALTERED THE MIDDLE EAST.

WE LOOK AT HIS GOVERNMENT'S APPROACH TO VACCINES.

HE PERSONALLY DID NOT SUPPORT WHAT HIS GOVERNMENT ACHIEVED, BUT, YOU KNOW, THE MOONSHOT APPROACH THAT HIS GOVERNMENT TOOK TO THE VACCINE ISSUE PROVED TO BE VERY BENEFICIAL FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, SO I'M LOOKING AT ELEMENTS OF HIS ADMINISTRATION THAT MIGHT GET MORE ATTENTION AS TIME PASSES, BUT WE STILL HAVE TO RECKON -- WE STILL HAVE TO RECKON WITH JANUARY 6th, WHICH, REGARDLESS OF WHAT ROLE YOU THINK HE PLAYED ON THAT DAY, OR PREPARING FOR THAT DAY, HIS RHETORIC CERTAINLY INFLAMED HIS BASE.

AND LAID THE FOUNDATION FOR THE BEHAVIOR THAT RESULTED IN THE ATTACK ON OUR CONGRESS.

SO, YEAH.

OVERTIME, SOME OF THE ACHIEVEMENTS THAT MEN AND WOMEN HAVE HAD IN THE WHITE HOUSE ARE FULLY APPRECIATED, BUT WHATEVER DAMAGE THEY CREATE, THAT DOESN'T DISAPPEAR.

IT'S JUST THAT EVERYTHING IS CONTEXTUALIZED.

DONALD TRUMP DID NOT HAVE AN OPENING TO CHINA MOMENT IN HIS FOREIGN POLICY.

THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS WERE IMPORTANT, BUT THEY DO NOT REALLY MATCH THE BRILLIANCE AND THE EFFECT OF NIXON GOING TO CHINA.

SO WHENEVER ONE LOOKS AT NIXON, OF COURSE, WATERGATE IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE IT SHOWS THE BASIC CORRUPTION OF THE MAN, BUT YOU STILL HAVE TWO COME TO TERMS WITH BOTH HIS APPROACH TO CHINA AND HIS APPROACH TO VIETNAM.

AND THE FACT THAT HE SIGNED SOME OF THE MOST PROGRESSIVE ENVIRONMENTAL BILLS.

SO WE DISLIKED HIM IN OUR HISTORY.

THE NIXON -- THE LEGACY FOR RICHARD NIXON IS COMPLEX AND COMPLICATED.

IF DONALD TRUMP SIMPLY ENDS UP WITH ONE PRESIDENTIAL TERM, THE BAD OF THAT TERM, ESPECIALLY BECAUSE OF JANUARY 6th, I THINK WILL FOREVER OUTWEIGH THE GOOD.

BUT I CAN ONLY SPEAK ON BEHALF OF HISTORIANS NOT YET BORN.

>> THE FORMER PRESIDENT HAS BEEN INCREDIBLY SUCCESSFUL IN OPENLY SAYING, YOU KNOW WHAT?

IF I DON'T WIN THIS COMING ELECTION, IT IS RIGGED.

IF I GET A VERDICT THAT IS NOT IN MY FAVOR, IT IS CORRUPT.

AND REALLY, HE HAS BEEN QUITE SUCCESSFUL WITH HIS BASE AND REFRAMING THE EVENTS OF JANUARY 6th AND THE CONTEXT OF THE ELECTION LIE OVER AND OVER AGAIN.

AND I WONDER IF THE PRESIDENT HAS HAD I GUESS, A MEASURABLE EFFECT ON HOW AMERICANS THINK ABOUT FACTS, THINK ABOUT OUR GOVERNMENT, THINK ABOUT PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY.

>> I THINK WE WOULD BE MISSING THE BIGGER STORY IF WE THOUGHT DONALD TRUMP WAS THE CREATOR OF ALL THE TENSIONS AND DIVISIONS IN OUR COUNTRY.

I THINK THAT WE ARE STILL PROCESSING THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE GREAT RECESSION.

THE RECOVERY AFTER THE GREAT RECESSION WAS UNEQUAL ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

I SAW -- I REMEMBER A VERY SUGGESTIVE SET OF FACTS ABOUT THE COUNTIES IN THIS COUNTRY THAT VOTED FOR OBAMA, AND 12, AND THEN VOTED FOR TRUMP IN 16.

MANY OF THEM WERE COUNTIES THAT HAD NOT RECOVERED AS WELL ECONOMICALLY AS OTHERS IN THIS COUNTRY.

SO THERE IS AN ECONOMICS STORY HERE.

THERE IS A CULTURAL STORY.

JUST THAT MANY AMERICANS WHO FORM PART OF PRESIDENT TRUMP SPACE ARE UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE CULTURAL AND SOCIAL CHANGES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN OUR COUNTRY.

THEY FEEL -- SOME OF THEM FEEL THAT THIS, IN SOME WAYS, UNDERMINES THEIR IDENTITY.

IT CERTAINLY UNDERMINES THEIR ABILITY TO PREDICT HOW LIFE WILL BE IN THIS COUNTRY.

AND FINALLY, LET'S NOT FORGET THE CONSEQUENCES OF COVID.

WE ARE STILL MAKING SENSE OF THE EFFECT OF THE PANDEMIC ON HOW WE INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER.

ON THE VERY BASIC QUESTIONS OF LIFE AND HUMANITY.

WRAP THOSE TOGETHER AND PUT THAT IN A SOCIAL MEDIA TO TALK WORLD, AND WHAT YOU END UP WITH IS THIS MOMENT WHERE A LOT IS GOING ON.

DONALD TRUMP IS THE AVATAR OF THE SORT OF THE DARK, SAD SIDE OF ALL OF THESE CHANGES.

YOU CAN TAKE A GLASS HALF-FULL AND TALK ABOUT OUR RESILIENCE AS A COUNTRY.

OUR ABILITY TO CHANGE.

OUR ABILITY TO CONTINUE TO INNOVATE.

WE ARE STILL THE CENTER OF MOST OF THE GREAT AND INTERESTING INNOVATIONS GOING ON IN THE WORLD.

AI, FOR EXAMPLE.

YOU CAN SAY, OH MY GOODNESS, EVERYTHING IS CHANGING.

I DON'T KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN AND WHAT MY PLACE WILL BE IN THE FUTURE.

THE FACT THAT THE GLASS ITSELF HAS A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF WATER, THAT'S NOT DONALD TRUMP'S DOING.

HOW IT'S INTERPRETED BY MILLIONS OF AMERICANS, THAT IS HELPED BY THE TRUMP PHENOMENON.

HIS NEGATIVE CHARISMA HAS HAD AN EFFECT IN INFLAMING -- MIXED METAPHORS, BUT -- HAD AN EFFECT IN INFLAMING THESE DIFFERENCES.

HE HAS WRITTEN THEM INTO POWER AT LEAST ONCE AND WANTS TO DO IT AGAIN IN 2024.

>> PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN, TIMOTHY NAFTALI, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.