Scott Jennings & John Avlon on Political Divisions

SCOTT JENNINGS: Well, I think two things. Number one, midterm elections are base turnout elections. Democrats need to turn out their hardest core supporters. Republicans need to do the same. For the Republican party, there’s no better motivator right now than Donald Trump. So, that’s absolutely true, both parties and especially Donald Trump are trying to get base voters to turn out. I also think geography matters a lot here. There’s essentially two elections going on, there’s the U.S. Senate election, which is taking place largely in big red rural states where Donald Trump did well in 2016 and then there’s the battle for the U.S. House where the real battleground is in suburban America and among 25 districts that Republicans currently hold that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. So, the rhetoric that Trump uses on any given day usually extremely helpful in the Senate states but sometimes not as helpful in the suburban House districts. So, we’re having one election but his impact could be positive in one front and negative on the other depending on which race you’re talking about. It really is a bifurcation of how people are reaction based on where they live and some of their personal characteristics such as their educational attainment.

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR: Would you then sort of agree, I sort of decode you to be saying what’s conventional wisdom right now that the Democrats are very likely to win back the House, if you listen to the current minority leader, she thinks they will win back the House, Nancy Pelosi said that last night, and that the Senate will remain in Republican hands? Do you as a Republican operative believe that to be the truth?

JENNINGS: I do. I think the high probability is we’re headed for divided government. I think Republicans could hold the House but it would be a long shot on election night just given the numbers of retirements, the number of open seats, the amount of money Democrats have raised, some of the districts that Republicans are trying to hold are very unfriendly territory. So, I would be shocked if the Democrats don’t win the House. In the Senate, not only do I think that Republicans will hold the Senate but I think there’s a great chance they may wind up at 52 or 53 seats. So, what does that portend for Donald Trump? It means, he’s going to have a lot of headaches coming from investigations, from a Democratic controlled House. And his achievements over the next two years are largely going to be confined to then confirming more judges with Mitch McConnell running the U.S. Senate.

AMANPOUR: That’s really interesting. And you have a load of new statistics and polling regarding this.

AVLON: Yes. So, you know, if you want to find the truth in politics, follow the money. Brand new report out by the Wesley Media Institute looking at where the money is going and advertising spending. And it really does say a lot about the state of the race. First of all, dramatic increase in negative ads, 61 percent over the last midterms we have seen, perhaps reflecting the tone and tenor that Donald Trump doing. But also, look at the issues. For Democrats it’s health care, overwhelmingly, health care and health care and health care, 60 percent of their ads in the Senate and House are being spent on that. For Democrats, it’s tax reform. Health care is down the list and Trump’s signature issues of public safety and immigration are well down the list as well. So, Democrats really actually have a unified message on the ground in the ad spend despite the lack of a national message.