The Costs of Mass Deportation? Expert Breaks Down Trump’s Immigration Plan

>>> WITH JUST OVER ONE WEEK TO GO TO THE U.S. ELECTION OVER THE WEEKEND, DONALD TRUMP DELIVERED ONE OF THE MOST EXTREME, ANGRY, FULL OF RACIST COMMENTS CLOSING ARGUMENTS IN MODERN PRESIDENTIAL HISTORY CALLING ILLEGAL MIGRANTS VICIOUS AND BLOOD THIRSTY CRIMINALS.

IF ELECTED, WOULD LAUNCH THE LARGEST DEPORTATION PROGRAM IN AMERICAN HISTORY ON DAY ONE.

HOW MUCH WOULD IT COST?

THE AMERICAN IMMIGRATION COUNCIL HAS BEEN CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS.

SENIOR FELLOW AARON REICHLIN-MELNICK JOINED HARI SREENIVASAN TO DISCUSS IT.

>> YOUR ORGANIZATION, THE AMERICAN IMMIGRATION COUNCIL, HAD PUT OUT A FASCINATING REPORT.

IT IS TITLED MASS DEPORT ATION.

YOU WENT THROUGH THIS THEORETICAL EXERCISE ALMOST AND REALLY JUST LOOKED VERY SPECIFICALLY AT WHAT SORT OF COST IT WOULD BE IF WE WERE TO BE ABLE TO DO SOMETHING LIKE THIS.

SO WHY WRITE THIS NOW?

>> WELL, RIGHT NOW WE ARE AT A TIME WHEN MASS DEPORTATION HAS BECOME A POPULAR WILL TOPIC FOR POLITICIANS AND POLICY MAKERS TO PROPOSE.

GIVEN THAT ISSUE, IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND, WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

IT IS NOT JUST A THEIRETT CAL AMOVOUS IDEA.

WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A U.S. LAW ENFORCEMENT OPERATION DESIGNED TO ROUND UP OVER 13 MILLION PEOPLE OVER A PERIOD OF TIME AND TO DEPORT THEM OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES.

AND THAT IS A HUGE OPERATION WHICH WOULD HAVE DRAMATIC CONSEQUENCES WITH THE UNITED STATES, ITS ECONOMY AND ITS PEOPLE.

>> HAVE WE EVER DONE ANYTHING LIKE THAT?

HAVE WE EVER MOVED THAT MANY PEOPLE?

THIS IS NOW HALF THE POPULATION OF NORTH CAROLINA.

>> THE PREVIOUS OPERATION CARRIED OUT UNDER PRESIDENT EISENHOWER WAS FOCUSED MOSTLY ON MEXICANS AND UNFORTUNATELY, SOME MEXICAN AMERICANS WHO WERE AT THE TIME LIVING AROUND THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER.

MANY OF WHOM WERE MIGRANT FARM WORKERS.

TODAY THE UNDOCUMENTED POPULATION LIVES IN EVERY STATE AND MOST COMMUNITIES AND REPRESENTS A WIDE ANDINCREASING LY DIVERSE NATIONALITY.

>> IF WE WERE ABLE TO CARRY OUT SOME SORT OF MASS DEPORTATION, YOU PUT THE TAG AT $315 BILLION.

HOW DID YOU COME TO THAT NUMBER?

>> THAT NUMBER WAS CALCULATED IN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE WAY POSSIBLE BECAUSE IT IS THE ESTIMATE JUST OF THE THEORETICAL COSTS OF A SINGLE ONE-TIME MASS DEPORTATION OPERATION, PRESUMING NO COST CHANGE CURRENTLY.

WE LOOKED AT FOUR INDIVIDUAL COSTS.

THE COSTS OF ARRESTING PEOPLE, THE COSTS OF DETAINING THEM, THE COSTS OF PROCESSING THEM FOR REMOVAL AND THE COST OF ACTUALLY CARRY IT OUT.

WE CALCULATED AN AVERAGE COST USING TODAY'S PRICES AND MULTIIFIED IT BY THE AFFECTED POPULATION.

THAT DOESN'T TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ALL THE ADDITIONAL COSTS THAT WOULD BE NEEDED TO CARRY OUT THIS STAGGERINGLY LARGE OPERATION WHICH IS WHY WE DEVELOPED AN ESTIMATE FOR WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO DE PORT 1 MILLION PEOPLE A YEAR.

>> LET'S BREAK THAT DOWN.

89.3 BILLION ON ARRESTS.

WHO WOULD BE ABLE TO CARRY OUT ALL THESE ARRESTS?

WHAT AGENCIES WOULD BE NECESSARY?

DO WE PHYSICALLY HAVE THE MANPOWER, SO TO SPEAK, TAD IT?

>> RIGHT NOW, I.C.E.

DOES NOT HAVE THAT MANPOWER.

THE AGENCY HAS SEVERAL INTERNAL DIVISIONS THAT CARRY OUT ARRESTS OF PEOPLE.

IT IS NOPE AS THE CRIMINAL APPREHENSION PROGRAM AND THE FUNERAL FUGITIVE APPREHENSION PROGRAM.

IT IS THE DEPARTMENT INSIDE I.C.E.

THAT GOES OUT.

THOSE IN THE PROGRAM ARE MOSTLY GOING TO STATE AND LOCAL JAILS AND PICKING UP PEOPLE ALREADY IN CUSTODY.

AS YOU CAN IMAGINE, THAT'S MUCH EASIER.

IF SOMEBODY IS ALREADY IN JAIL, THE FEDERAL OFFICER HAS TO SHOW UP AND HAVE CUSTODY TRANSFERRED.

IF PEOPLE ARE OUT IN THE COMMUNITY WHO NEED TO GO OUT AND DO AN ARREST AND THAT IS MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE.

IN THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, WE CALCULATED AND LOOKED AT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, THE ERA WHICH WE HAD THE BEST DATA FOR.

THAT WAS 2016 TO 2020.

DURING THAT PERIOD, THE AVERAGE I.C.E.

ARRESTS WERE LESS THAN 30,000.

SO RIGHT NOW, THE FUGITIVE PROGRAM IS REALLY ONLY GOING AFTER TENS OF THOUSANDS A YEAR BUT NOT THAT MANY OVERALL CONSIDERING THERE ARE OVER 13 MILLION POTENTIALLY REMOVABLE.

SO THE U.S.

DOES NOT HAVE THAT MANPOWER.

AND WOULD HAVE TO EITHER HIRE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS IN THE SHORT TERM OR 31,000 A YEAR.

IF THEY COULDN'T HIRE THOSE PEOPLE, THEY WOULD HAVE TO PULL THEM FROM OTHER LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES WHICH MEANS YOU WOULD HAVE THE PEOPLE INVESTIGATING CHILD PORNOGRAPHY SUDDENLY TAKING OFF TO GO AFTER SOME GRANDMA WHO HAS BEEN HERE FOR DECADES.

>> GOT IT.

SO YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THE DETAINMENT COSTS.

AND FOR THAT, YOU ESTIMATE $167 BILLION.

WHERE WOULD THAT TAKE PLACE?

WHETHER IT IS A MILLION PEOPLE A YEAR OR 13 MILLION ALL AT ONCE?

>> FOR THIS 13 MILLION ALL AT ONCE ESTIMATE, THAT IS MASSIVELY CONSERVATIVE.

THAT'S THE COST ESTIMATE PRESUMING THERE WOULD BE NO ADDITIONAL COSTS INCURRED BY DETENTION.

IN OTHER WORDS, THE CURRENT COST PER PERSON FOR DETENTION WOULD NOT GO UP.

BUT WE KNOW IT WOULD.

BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT OTHER SHORT-TERM DETENTION FACILITIES THAT THE U.S. GOVERNMENT HAS THROWN UP AT THE BORDER, THEY'RE CALLED SOFT-SIDED FACILITIES USED FOR MIGRANTS, THEY ARE MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE THAN THE FACILITIES USED BY I.C.E.

TO DETAIN PEOPLE WHICH ARE USUALLY JAILS AND PRISONS WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSTRUCTED YEARS AGO OR DECADES AGO.

MANY ARE CONVERTED FEDERAL PRISONS OWNED BY PRIVATE PRISON CONTRACTORS.

AND SO THOSE COSTS ARE LOWER THAN BUILDING NEW FACILITIES.

AND RIGHT NOW, IF YOU LOOK AT OFFICIAL BUREAU STATISTICS FROM THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, IT SHOWS AS OF THE END OF 2022, THERE WERE 1.9 MILLION PEOPLE DETAINED IN JAILS AND PRISONS AROUND THE COUNTRY.

THAT'S FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL PRISONS.

IF YOU WANTED TO DETAIN 13 MILLION PEOPLE, THAT MEANS YOU WOULD HAVE TO INCREASE THE NATIONAL JAIL CAPACITY BY MORE THAN SIX TIMES.

AND EVEN IF YOU WANTED TO DETAIN A MILLION PEOPLE A YEAR IN I.C.E.

DETENTION, YOU WOULD HAVE TO INCREASE TOTAL CAPACITY OF ALL JAILS AND PRISONS IN THE UNITED STATES BY MORE THAN 50%.

YOU CANNOT DO THAT EASILY, AND YOU CERTAINLY CAN'T DO THAT CHEAPLY.

WE'RE LOOKING AT THESE SOFT-SIDED DETENTION FACILITIES AT THE BORDER COST MORE THAN HALF A BILLION DOLLARS PER 5,000 DETENTION BEDS.

>> WOW!

THE ACTUAL REMOVAL COSTS YOU ESTIMATE AT $24 BILLION.

>> THIS IS BECAUSE THE I.C.E.

SYSTEM IS RUN BY CONTRACT CHARTER FLIGHT SERVICES.

THE COSTS TO OPERATE THOSE FLIGHTS ARE VERY HEY.

AT A CONGRESSIONAL HEARING IN 2023, ACTING I.C.E.

DIRECTOR JOHNSON TESTIFIED THAT THE AVERAGE COST PER FLIGHT HOUR WAS AROUND $17,000 PER FLIGHT HOUR.

>> WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT THE COSTS OF IMPLEMENTATION OF SOME MASS DEPORTATION.

WHAT ARE THE ECONOMIC COSTS IF WE WERE TO THEORETICALLY TAKE 13 MILLION PEOPLE OUT OF THE EXISTING U.S. ECONOMY AND THE ROLES THAT THEY PERFORM TODAY?

>> ESTIMATES ARE THAT UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS ARE ANYWHERE FROM 4% TO 5% OF THE U.S. WORK FORCEFUL SO IF YOU CARRY OUT MASS DEPORTATIONS, YOU ARE SHRINKING THE U.S. LABOR FORCE SIGNIFICANTLY.

AND THAT IS GOING TO AFFECT THE OVERALL ECONOMY.

IT'S NOT THE CASE THAT IMMIGRATION IS A ZERO SUM GAME.

IF ONE IMMIGRANT COMES HERE, THAT'S ONE AMERICAN WHO DOESN'T GET A JOB.

THAT'S BECAUSE IMMIGRANTS HELP CREATE JOBS.

NOT ONLY THROUGH CONSUMER DEMAND BUT THEY OFTEN START BUSINESSES OR HELP ENSURE THAT AMERICAN BUSINESSES CAN STAY ACTIVE AND KEEP HIRING OTHERS.

SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE MASS DEPORTATION OPERATION OF THIS POPULATION, WE ESTIMATE THAT A MASS DEPORTATION WOULD LEAD TOW A DROP IN U.S.

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ANYWHERE FROM 4.2% TO 6.8%.

AND I KNOW THAT SOUNDS THEORETICAL.

THAT IS LARGER THAN THE GREAT RECESSION.

AT THE HEIGHT OF THE GREAT RECESSION, THERE WERE 15 MILLION AMERICANS OUT OF WORK.

>> SO ONE OF THE FRAMINGS THAT HAS BEEN VERY SUCCESSFUL FOR FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP AND HIS CAMPAIGN SPEECHES AND RALLIES IS THAT THIS IS A ZERO SUM GAIN.

THAT AMERICANS WILL BE GIVEN OPPORTUNITIES TO GET THE JOBS BACK THAT THE ILLEGAL WORKERS ARE TAKING.

WHAT'S WRONG WITH THAT THINKING?

>> YEAH, I MEAN, PART OF THAT IS WRONG BECAUSE THERE ARE, THERE IS A LABOR SHORTAGE AND THERE SIMPLY AREN'T ENOUGH AMERICANS TO TAKE THESE JOBS.

IF YOU CUT ALL OF THESE PEOPLE OUT OF THE POPULATION, THERE WILL BE CERTAIN JOBS THAT JUST WILL GO UNFILLED.

AND AS THOSE JOBS GO UNFILLED, THE FIRMS THAT ARE TRYING TO HAIR THERE, THE COMPANIES, THE BUSINESSES, MANY OF THEM SMALL BUSINESSES, THEY WON'T RAISE THEIR PRICES OR ADJUST THEIR PRICES AND STAY IN BUSINESS.

THEY'LL JUST GO OUT OF BUSINESS.

IF THEY HAVE AMERICANS WORKING THERE AS WELL, WHICH YOU WILL FIND IS VERY COMMON, THEY WILL LOSE THEIR JOB, TOO.

ONE RECENT STUDY FOUND THAT FOR EVERY 500,000 UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS DEPORTED, 44,000 AMERICANS LOSE THEIR JOBS.

BUT BEYOND THAT, YOU'RE ALSO LOOKING AT THE FACT UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS WORK IN A LOT OF THE FIELD THAT'S HELP AMERICA THRIVE.

ONE IN SEVEN PEOPLE WORK IN THE ENTIRE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY.

EVERYTHING FROM DAY LABORERS ALL THE WAY TO THE CEO'S IS UNDOCUMENTED.

ONE IN THREE ROOFERS, DRYWALL INSTALLERS, STUCCO MASONS AND CEILING TIMERS, THEY ARE ALSO UNDOCUMENTED.

IF YOU THINK IT IS HARD TO GET A CONTRACTOR NOW, IMAGINE IF A THIRD OF THE PEOPLE DOING THOSE JOBS WEREN'T HERE.

THE PRICES WOULD GO UP AND FEWER PEOPLE WOULD BE ABLE TO ACCESS THOSE SERVICES.

YOU WOULDN'T SUDDENLY SEE A HUGE INCREASE IN AMERICANS TAKING THOSE JOBS.

THERE MIGHT BE SOME SUBSTITUTION BUT IT WOULD NOT BE 100%.

IF IT WERE 100%, THAT COULD TAKE DECADES AND THERE WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC DOWNSIDES IN THE INTERIM.

>> LET'S WALK THROUGH A LITTLE OF VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS'S IMMIGRATION POLICY AS SHE'S LAID IT OUT.

DOES IT FIRST OF ALL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PRESIDENT BIDEN'S?

>> WELL, IT IS CERTAINLY DIFFERENT FROM PRESIDENT BIDEN'S CAMPAIGN POLICY PROMISES BACK IF 2020.

BUT FROM WHAT HAS BEEN PUT OUT SO FAR, IT DOES BE DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION'S CURRENT APPROACH.

AND THAT APPROACH THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPED REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS IS BASICALLY WHAT I'VE CALLED THE CARROT AND STICK APPROACH.

THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION IS OFFERING MIGRANTS ALTERNATE LEGAL PATH WAYS TO ENTERING THE UNITED STATES.

EITHER THROUGH PAROLE PROGRAMS THAT PEOPLE INSIDE THE UNITED STATES CAN APPLY TO SPONSOR PEOPLE TO COME HERE, OR THROUGH THE CBP 1 APP, A MEANS THAT PEOPLE CAN GET IN LINE TO GO THROUGH A PORT OF ENTRY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER.

AND THOSE WHO DON'T USE THOSE TOOLS ARE BEING INCREASINGLY TARGETED FOR DEPORTATION BY THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION.

WE'VE SEEN THE HARRIS ADMINISTRATION LARGELY ADOPT THIS, AT LEAST WHEN IT COMES TO THE BORDER.

INSIDE THE UNITED STATES, THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION IS HEAVILY PRO-IMMIGRANT.

THERE ARE NO MASS RAIDS LIKE WE SAW UNDER THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AND THERE'S NO SIGN I'VE SEEN THAT THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN IS SUGGESTING IT WOULD START THOSE KINDS OF MASS ENFORCEMENT OPERATIONS AGAIN.

>> SO IS THE POLICY WORKING?

WE HAD A RECORD NUMBER OF BORDER CROSSINGS IN 2023, RIGHT?

>> WELL, WE HAD A RECORD NUMBER OF APPREHENSIONS.

WASN'T NECESSARILY A RECORD NUMBER OF CROSSINGS.

THAT'S BECAUSE ABOUT 20 YEARS AGO, THE STATISTICS ON APPREHENSIONS WERE MUCH LOWER BECAUSE MOST PEOPLE WHO CROSSED THE BORDER WERE BEING CAUGHT.

TODAY IT IS BLANKETED IN SURVEILLANCE CAMERAS.

WE HAVE TENS OF THOUSANDS MORE AGENTS THAN BACK THEN.

SO APPREHENSIONS HIT A RECORD WHILE CROSSINGS ARGUABLY DIDN'T.

BUT SETTING THAT ASIDE, THE NUMBERS ARE DOWN.

THE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO TWO THINGS.

DUE TO THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION REACHING A DEAL WITH MEXICO IN LATE DECEMBER OF LAST YEAR, AND MEXICO HAS NOW EMBARKED ON ITS HARSHEST AND RECORD-SETTING ENFORCEMENT OPERATION.

THE HARSHEST IN AMERICAN HISTORY AND THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION IN JUNE BEGAN TURNING AWAY ASYLUM SEEKERS TO CROSSED THE BORDER BY CHANGING THE PROCESS AND RAISING THE STANDARD FOR PEOPLE SEEKING PROTECTION.

SO RIGHT NOW, SEPTEMBER WAS THE LOWEST BORDER APPREHENSIONS OF BIDEN'S TIME IN OFFICE.

AND INDEED, WAS ABOUT THE LEVEL OF SUMMER 2020 BEFORE TRUMP LEFT OFFICE.

>> CANDIDATE HARRIS ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL CONSTANTLY REFERS TO THE FAILURE OF THE IMMIGRATION REFORM LEGISLATION THAT SHE SAYS FAILED IN PART BECAUSE PRESIDENT TRUMP GOT ON THE PHONE AND TOLD REPUBLICANS NOT TO VOTE FOR IT.

NOW, THAT BILL, IF IT HAD GONE THROUGH, WHAT LIKELY CHANGES WOULD WE BE SEEING BY TODAY?

>> I THINK THE SITUATION AT LEAST WHEN IT COMES TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER, WOULD LOOK SOMEWHAT SIMILAR.

AND THAT'S BECAUSE THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION'S JUNE POLICIES ADOPTED SOME PARTS OF THAT BILL.

HOWEVER, THE BILL ITSELF WAS NOT, IT WAS IMPERFECT.

IT HAD CREATED THIS BORDER EMERGENCY AUTHORITY THAT WAS MANDATORY EXCEPT AT THE TIMES WHEN IT WAS VOLUNTEER AND IT WAS AT TIMES VOLUNTARY.

IT WAS NOT GREAT EFFECTIVE SENSIBLE POLICY.

IN THAT SENSE IT CAME WELL RESOURCES.

THAT'S THE THING THE SYSTEM NEEDS MORE THAN EVER.

IT WOULD HAVE LED TO THE HIRING OF THOUSANDS OF NEW ASYLUM OFFICERS, HUNDREDS OF NEW IMMIGRATION JUDGES, AND MORE AGENTS, MORE OFFICERS, MORE RESOURCES.

WHICH AS I'VE LONG ARGUED IS THE BIG ISSUE RIGHT NOW.

WE HAVE AN UNDERRESOURCED ASYLUM SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN STRAINING UNDER ITS WEIGHT FOR YEARS NOW.

CONGRESS KEEPS DRIBBLING DOLLARS AND CENTS INTO IT.

FOR THE FIRST TIME, THIS BILL WOULD HAVE GIVEN THE ADJUDICATION SYSTEM A HUGE BURST OF FUNDING.

>> IS THERE KIND OF A PATHWAY HERE FOR ANY SORT OF STRUCTURAL REFORM TO IMMIGRATION?

IN 2024, DO YOU SEE A PATH TO NAVIGATE?

>> WELL, A COUPLE OF PATHS.

ONE IS YOU THIS EDUCATION.

A REALLY FASCINATING POLL CAME OUT, IT MEANS ROUNDING PEOPLE UP AND PUTTING THEM IN CAMPS.

IT MEANS SPENDING HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AND THEN YOU COMPARE IT TO A PATH FOR LEGAL STATUS FOR PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN HERE FOR YEARS, THEY PAY BACK TAXES AND PAY A FINE, THEY OVERWHELMINGLY PREFER A PATH TO LEGAL STATUS OVER MASS DEPORT AFLGS STEP TWO IS TO GET CONGRESS TO ACT.

THE PROBLEM IS THIS IS A, THIS HAS BEEN AN ISSUE FOR DECADES.

THE LAST TIME CONGRESS MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO OUR LEGAL IMMIGRATION SYSTEM WAS IN NOVEMBER OF 1990.

ONE MONTH BEFORE THE WORLDWIDE WEB WENT ONLINE.

THE LAST TIME WE MADE ANY CHANGES TO OUR IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT AND ASYLUM SYSTEM WAS IN 1996.

AND THE HEIGHT OF THE MACARENA CRAZE.

WE ARE USING THESE 20th CENTURY RELICS TO RUN OUR IMMIGRATION AND ASYLUM SYSTEM AND WE HAVEN'T CHANGED THAT STRUCTURE.

THERE ARE MORE POINTS ON WHICH POLITICIANS AND THE PUBLIC AGREE ON IMMIGRATION THAN THERE ARE POINTS THAT WE DISAGREE.

AND WE HAVE TO KEEP FOCUSED ON THOSE AND MAKING THE CHANGES THAT WE NEED WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING CHANGES HAVE TO BE MADE ON BOTH SIDES.

UNTIL WE CAN HAVE THAT ADULT CONVERSATION, I'M WORRIED WE WON'T SEE PROGRESS IN WASHINGTON.

>> THANKS SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.