The Male Vote: The Dems’ “Fatal Miscalculation” and What Trump Got Right

GENDER WAS ALWAYS GOING TO PLAY A VITAL ROLE IN THE U.S. ELECTION.

WHILE BLACK WOMEN TURNED OUT FOR DEMOCRATS IN FOREST FOR THE ELECTION, THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN BANKS MISTAKENLY ON ALL WOMEN DOING SO.

HOW THEY MISSED A HUGE OPPORTUNITY TO FIGHT FOR YOUNG MALE VOTES.

RICHARD REEVES IS PRESIDENT OF THE INSTITUTE FOR BOYS AND MEN AND HE JOINS US NOW TO DISCUSS WHY GEN Z MAN SWUNG TO TRUMP IN RECORD NUMBERS.

>> THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

YOU'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE CHANGING PRESSURES ON BOYS AND MEN FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS NOW AND IT REALLY PLAYED OUT DURING THE SELECTION IN A SURPRISING WAY.

MEN SUPPORTED FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP BY A 13 POINT MARGIN.

UP FROM EIGHT IN 2020.

THROUGHOUT THE DEMOGRAPHICS, ESPECIALLY YOUNG MEN SEEMED TO TILT SO MUCH MORE TO THE PRESIDENT.

HOW DID WE SEE THIS COMING?

YOUNG MEN WERE MOVING VERY STRONGLY TO THE REPUBLICAN CAMP.

WHAT WE DID NOT EXPECT WAS THAT YOUNG WOMEN WOULD ALSO MOVE AWAY.

SO THE GENDER GAP ACTUALLY DID NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH, BUT THE REASON IS BECAUSE WHILE YOUNG MEN MOVED TO THE RIGHT, SO DID YOUNG WOMEN.

OF COURSE, THE GENDER GAP REMAINED.

ANY STORY ABOUT THE SELECTION HAS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT IT WAS NOT JUST THE YOUNG MEN.

PARTICULARLY BECAUSE WE HAD A FEMALE CANDIDATE ON THE DEMOCRAT SIDE UNLESS SUCH A PERFORMATIVE MASCULINITY ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, THAT MEN, ESPECIALLY YOUNG MEN, WILL BE FALSELY ATTRIBUTED TO SEXISM, BACKLASH OR MISOGYNY.

I THINK IT'S MUCH MORE A STORY OF NEGLECT FAN OF SEXISM.

THE PROBLEM IS THAT MANY MEN FEEL THEY HAVE WITH EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION, JUST REALLY WERE NOT BEING TALKED ABOUT, REFLECTED ON THE DEMOCRAT SIDE.

REPUBLICAN SIDE.

CERTAINLY TRUE THAT MANY YOUNG MEN FELT MORE WELCOMED, MORE SEEN, MORE HEARD ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE.

SOMETIMES POLITICS BOILS DOWN TO WHO LIKES ME?

WHO LIKES THE STUFF I LIKE?

THE CULTURAL ELEMENT THAT WILL MOVE THE ELECTION.

THE REPUBLICANS PUT OUT A WELCOME MAT FOR YOUNG MEN.

THEY ALSO MET YOUNG MEN WHERE THEY WERE.

LITERALLY IN THE CASE OF THE JOE ROGAN PODCAST AND OTHERS, BUT ALSO JUST MET THEM IN TERMS OF SAYING TO THEM THAT WE GET IT.

YOU ARE STRUGGLING RIGHT NOW.

WHERE THAT LEADS IN TERMS OF POLICY IS ANOTHER MATTER.

>> LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT WELCOME THAT IDEA.

WHERE THE PRESIDENT WENT WAS UNCHARTED TERRITORY IN TERMS OF PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNING.

HE STOPPED BY A LOT OF PODCASTS AND TALKED TO INFLUENCERS, SO TO SPEAK, WHO WERE KIND OF IN THE SPHERES WHERE YOUNG MEN ARE TODAY.

WHETHER THAT IS ON TWITCH CHANNELS, WATCHING VIDEO GAMES, PLAYING VIDEO GAMES, POLITICAL RALLIES ON CAMPUSES.

>> THAT'S THE COMMUNICATIONS OF SHIFTS THAT WE REALLY NEED TO CATCH UP WITH.

ESPECIALLY IF THE GOAL IS TO REACH YOUNG MEN.

IF THE GOAL IS TO REACH YOUNG MEN, YOU HAVE TO GO WHERE YOUNG MEN ARE AND THAT IS ON THESE PODCASTS.

THESE VERY LONG FORMS OF FREEWHEELING PODCASTS.

THREE HOURS WITH TRUMP ON JOE ROGAN.

THREE HOURS WITH J.D.

VANCE.

IT'S A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT WORLD IN TERMS OF ELECTION STRATEGY AND COMMUNICATION STRATEGY.

I THINK THE DEMOCRATS DID NOT FOLLOW THAT STRATEGY, BUT IT'S NOT JUST BECAUSE --OF THAT BECAUSE THEY DIDN'T KNOW THAT THERE WERE NUMBERS THERE.

IT'S NOT THAT THEY DID NOT KNOW THAT IS WHERE YOUNG MEN WERE.

IT'S BECAUSE THE DEMOCRATS BELIEVED THAT THEY DID NOT NEED THE VOTES OF YOUNG MEN, BECAUSE THEY WERE GOING TO GET SUFFICIENT VOTES AMONG YOUNG WOMEN AND WOMEN GENERALLY.

SO THE REASON THAT THE DEMOCRATS DID NOT WIN THE BATTLE FOR YOUNG MEN'S VOTES IS BECAUSE THEY DID NOT FIGHT FOR THEM.

THEY DID NOT REALLY CONTEST FOR THEM.

THERE WAS NO STRONG POLICY OUTREACH WERE COMMUNICATION STRATEGY.

SO THEY ESSENTIALLY CEDED BACKGROUND THINKING THEY DID NOT NEED IT, WHICH TURNED OUT TO BE A FATAL MISCALCULATION.

>> WHAT WERE THE STRUGGLES TO TAP INTO, WHAT WERE THE ISSUES ANIMATING MEN, YOUNG MEN THAT PRESIDENT ELECT TRUMP SEEMED TO HEAR, CARE ABOUT OR IN SOME WAY CONNECT WITH?

>> I THINK ON SOME LEVEL, IT'S INCREDIBLY BASIC.

IT'S WE SEE YOU, WE LIKE YOU, WE DON'T HATE YOU, THE OTHER SIDE HATES YOU.

WE ARE NEVER GOING TO LECTURE YOU ABOUT TOSCA >> SALINITY.

WE ARE NEVER GOING TO SAY THAT YOU WE WILL SIMPLY SAY THAT WE LIKE YOU AND WE LIKE THE THINGS YOU LIKE.

WE WILL APPROACH THE BETTER SENSE OF HUMOR AROUND SOME OF THIS STUFF, GO TO UCLA --UFC FIGHTS, ET CETERA.

AND THAT IS NOT A POLICY TO TACKLE THE FACT THAT THE SUICIDE RATE AMONG MEN UNDER 30 HAS RISEN BY MORE THAN 40% SINCE 2010.

THAT'S NOT A POLICY STRATEGY FOR DEALING WITH THE FACT THAT WE HAVE BIGGER GAPS, GENDER GAPS ON COLLEGE CAMPUSES TODAY THAN WE DID IN THE 70s, THE OTHER WAY AROUND.

IT DOES NOT AFFECT THE FACT THAT WORKING-CLASS MEN HAVE NOT HAD A PAY RISE FOR DECADES.

SO THE SUBSTANCE IS NOT THERE ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE.

THE IRONY IS THAT THERE IS MORE POLICY SUBSTANCE ALREADY ON THE DEMOCRATS SIDE.

THE INFRASTRUCTURE BILL MOSTLY WORKING-CLASS MEN.

HISPANIC , BLACK AND WHITE WORKING-CLASS MEN.

YOU CANNOT FIND A SINGLE DEMOCRAT WHO WOULD HAVE SAID THAT BECAUSE THEY FALSELY ASSUMED THAT TALKING ABOUT THE THE BOYS AND MEN, ACKNOWLEDGING THE VERY FACT OF THE PROBLEMS WOULD UNDERMINE THEIR APPEAL TO WOMEN.

THAT WAS A BIG MISTAKE.

IT WAS A ZERO-SUM THINKING.

AS A RESULT, THEY NOT ONLY LOST AMONG MEN, BUT WOMEN.

THE DEMOCRATS COMING OUT OF THE SELECTION HAS TO BE DON'T MOVE TOO QUICKLY TO THE EXPLANATION OF SEXISM.

CONSIDER THIS IS THE EFFECT OF A LONG RUN NEGLECT ON THE POLICY FRONT OF THE ISSUES OF BOYS AND MEN.

>> WE HAVE SEEN THE LEVELS OF SUPPORT FOR YOUNG MAN OVERALLS A RELATIVELY STEADY AMONG MALE VOTERS.

AS I LOOK AT THESE NUMBERS, YOU KNOW, 60% OF WHITE MALE VOTERS VOTED FOR HIM THIS TIME, VERSUS 62% IN 2016.

IT'S FASCINATING WHEN YOU START BREAKING DOWN THE SUPPORT AMONG WHAT HAPPENED WITH BOTH BLACK MALE VOTERS AS WELL AS LATINO MALE VOTERS.

HE WENT FROM 19 TO 21 PERCENT SUPPORT FOR BLACK MALE VOTERS, WHICH WAS BETTER THAN LAST TIME BUT 30 TO 65%.

WHAT ACCOUNTS FOR THAT?

>> THE FIRST THING TO SAY OF COURSE IS THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF PEOPLE WERE NOT VOTING ON THE GROUNDS OF THEIR GENDER.

OR OF THEIR RACE.

THIS WAS AN ELECTION DOMINATED BY ECONOMIC CONCERNS.

NONETHELESS, THE LOSS OF SUPPORT AMONG BLACK MALE VOTERS, AS YOU POINT OUT ESPECIALLY HISPANIC MALE VOTERS, SHOULD I THINK BE A SIGN THAT UNLESS THERE IS A STRONG ECONOMIC AGENDA THAT'S CRAFTED IN A WAY SPECIFICALLY TO MEN AS WELL AS TO WOMEN THAT THE DEMOCRATS WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE GROUND AMONG THEIR CONSTITUENCY.

THIS IS A PLACE WHERE CLASS, GENDER AND RACE ARE ALL OVERLAPPING WITH EACH OTHER.

YOU'RE SEEING A NUMBER OF MEN, ESPECIALLY MEN BUT HISPANIC WOMEN, AS WELL ALSO SWUNG PRETTY STRONGLY TOWARDS DONALD TRUMP.

ALTHOUGH SUPPORTING OVERALL KAMALA HARRIS.

NOT ONLY DO YOU NEED AN ECONOMIC MESSAGE AND TO BE TALKING ABOUT THE ECONOMY, BUT YOU NEED TO BE TALKING ABOUT IT IN A WAY THAT'S GOING TO LAND WITH MEN.

TO THE EXTENT THAT THERE WAS A POLICY DISCUSSION ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE AROUND MANUFACTURING, SOME SKEPTICISM PERHAPS AROUND HIGHER EDUCATION.

SOME OF THAT SEEMED TO HAVE LANDED WITH MEN PARTICULARLY.

>> I THINK THERE ARE QUITE A FEW PEOPLE WHO ARE SURPRISED THAT AS A COLLECTIVE SOCIETY, WE USE TO UPHOLD THE ROLE OF A PERSON TO THE PRESIDENT, ROLE MODEL FOR THE COUNTRY, SOMEONE WE WANT REPRESENTING US ON THE WORLD STAGE.

IN THE CASE OF YOUNG MEN AND BOYS, WE SAW A PRESIDENT, WE HAVE A PRESIDENT HAS BEEN FOUND LIABLE OF SEXUAL ASSAULT.

HE HAS BEEN ACCUSED OF THAT BY SEVERAL WOMEN IN HIS LIFE.

AND I WONDER HOW WERE MEN, YOUNG MEN ABLE TO SET THOSE THINGS ASIDE?

>> FOR ONE THING, AS WE SET A MOMENT EARLIER, THE MOTIVATING FACTORS FOR A LOT OF MEN WERE AROUND THE ECONOMY, AND SO YOU'VE HEARD A LOT OF FOCUS GROUPS.

MEN WOULD BE SAYING LOOK I DON'T LIKE HIM PARTICULARLY.

BUT I WANT THE ECONOMY HE DELIVERED FOR ME.

I LIKE THE IDEA OF LOWER TAXES, JOBS, MANUFACTURING COMING BACK.

SO IT'S PERFECTLY POSSIBLE THAT MANY OF THESE MEN VOTED FOR DONALD TRUMP NOT BECAUSE OF SOME OF THE ISSUES JUST RAISED BUT TO SOME EXTENT DESPITE THEM.

IT'S A VERY DIFFICULT THING TO GET YOUR HEAD AROUND.

PEOPLE WERE ABLE TO HOLD THEIR CONTRADICTORY IDEAS ABOUT A CANDIDATE.

I DON'T LIKE CERTAIN ASPECTS OF BETTER OFF.

AND I THINK HE SEES ME A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN SOME OF THE OTHER CANDIDATES DO.

BUT I DO THINK THAT THERE'S A VACUUM HERE, PARTICULARLY ON CENTERLEFT AROUND A WILLINGNESS TO JUST ACCEPT THAT THERE IS A POSITIVE NOTION OF MASCULINITY AND THE ROLE OF MEN.

ON SOME LEVEL, A LOT OF THESE YOUNG MEN ESPECIALLY ARE NOT SURE WHAT THE MESSAGE IS TO THEM ABOUT WHETHER WE LIKE THEM, WHETHER WE NEED THEM AND WHAT THEIR ROLE IN SOCIETY IS GOING TO BE.

WHATEVER YOU THINK OF THE WAY IN WHICH REPUBLICANS TALK ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF MEN, THE ROLE OF MEN AND THE SIGNALS THEY HAD ABOUT BEING FRIENDLY TO MEN, THE DANGER IS THAT IT WILL BE SILENCE.

PEOPLE CAN SAY HOW COULD MEN BE ATTRACTED TO THAT ROLE MODEL OF MASCULINITY WHEN THERE WAS NOT REALLY AN ALTERNATIVE PUT IN FRONT OF THEM?

SO AGAIN, IT'S IN THE FINAL STAGES OF THE CAMPAIGN WHERE YOUNG MEN WERE BEING URGED TO VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRATS IF THEY LOVE THE WOMEN IN THEIR LIVES.

AND THAT'S NOT GOOD ENOUGH.

IT'S NOT TO SAY THAT WE DON'T CARE ABOUT THE OTHER PEOPLE IN OUR LIVES BUT YOU ARE ESSENTIALLY ASKING MEN TO VOTE FOR DEMOCRATS BECAUSE THE DEMOCRATS STAND FOR WOMEN, THAT'S A FLAWED POLITICAL STRATEGY AGAIN.

>> WHAT WAS THE ROLE OF TIM WALZ AS A POTENTIAL ROLE MODEL FOR MASCULINITY?

WAS THAT TOO LATE, DID THAT NOT LAND?

>> OF COURSE, EVERYTHING WAS DONE PRETTY LATE.

THAT'S A BROAD QUESTION FOR THE CAMPAIGN.

BUT I'LL SAY I WAS EXTREMELY DISAPPOINTED NOT TO SEE BETTER USE BEING MADE OF TIM WALZ.

IN PARTICULARLY HIS BIOGRAPHY.

HE WAS THE FIRST CAREER PUBLIC SCHOOL TEACHER TO RUN FOR SUCH HIGHER OFFICE.

NOT ONLY THAT, A COACH.

YOU HAD IS ON STUDENTS COMING ORIENTED MASCULINITY THAT HE HAD DEMONSTRATED.

IF THERE WAS ANY CANDIDATE WHO COULD HAVE PLAUSIBLY SET OUT A POSITIVE VISION FOR THE ROLE OF MEN IN SOCIETY FOR A CAMPAIGN TO INCREASE THE SHARE OF MALE TEACHERS, TO REALLY TACKLE THIS MENTAL HEALTH CRISIS THAT WE SEE PLAYING OUT AMONG YOUNG MEN.

IT'S HARD TO THINK OF A BETTER TV AT LEAST THEN THE ONE OF TIM WALZ.

IT WAS EASY TO IMAGINE HIM GIVING POWERFUL SPEECHES, RUNNING STRONG ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS DIRECTLY TARGETED AT YOUNG MEN WITH AN EMPATHETIC, RESPECTFUL, POLICY-BASED MESSAGE TO THOSE YOUNG MEN.

NONE OF THAT HAPPENED.

AMONG THE MANY MISSED OPPORTUNITIES THAT WE SAW ON THE DEMOCRAT SIDE OF THE CAMPAIGN, THE FAILURE TO SEND TIM WALZ OUT BACKED BY STRONG POLICY AGENDA TO ONE OF THE VOTES OF YOUNG MEN HURT THEM.

>> WAS THERE BACKLASH IN TERMS OF HOW THE DEMOCRATS WERE ABOUT REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS?

THAT THAT WOULD BE THE THING THAT ANIMATES WOMEN TO THE POLLS?

AHEAD OF THE CAMPAIGN, THERE WAS A FOCUS ON TRYING TO GET MEN ENGAGED IN THAT ISSUE JUST AS MUCH.

I WONDER WHAT WAS, WHAT WERE YOUNG MEN AND BOYS HEARING THROUGHOUT THE COUPLE OF MONTHS THAT KAMALA HARRIS WAS CAMPAIGNING ON THAT ISSUE?

>> THE EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT PARTICULARLY YOUNG MEN HAVE VERY SIMILAR ABUSE --OF VIEWS ON ABORTION AS YOUNG WOMEN.

AND THEY HAD THE BEST POSITION ON ABORTION.

THAT WAS NOT REALLY SALIENT FOR THOSE YOUNG MEN.

IT'S NOT WHAT THEY WERE VOTING ON.

THAT WAS TRUE FOR A LOT OF WOMEN, TOO.

TO HAVE LOST SO MUCH GROUND ON YOUNG WOMEN.

SOMETHING THAT I REALLY THINK COMPLICATES THE STORY FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

DEFINITELY A BACKLASH.

YOU WILL STRUGGLE TO FIND ANY EVIDENCE PARTICULARLY AMONG YOUNG MEN THAT THEY WERE SOMEHOW REACTING AGAINST THIS IDEA THAT REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS FOR WOMEN WERE THREATENING TO THEM.

I THINK THAT IS A MESS.

IT IS SIMPLY THAT ABORTION WAS NOT SUCH A BIG ISSUE IN THIS ELECTION AS THE DEMOCRATS HAD HOPED IT WOULD BE.

AND IT DEFINITELY WAS NOT THAT BIG OF AN ISSUE FOR THE MAN AND YOUNG MEN.

IT'S NOT AS IF THEY HAVE A VERY DIFFERENT VIEW ABOUT THIS.

IT'S JUST NOT AS BIG OF AN ISSUE FOR THEM.

MAYBE YOU SHOULD ARGUE IT SHOULD BE.

THAT WAS KIND OF PART OF THE DEMOCRATS LAST-DITCH ATTEMPT TO GET MEN TO CARE MORE ABOUT THAT ISSUE.

BUT UNFORTUNATELY, POLITICS IS MUCH MORE ABOUT GOING TO WHERE VOTERS ARE DOWN TELLING VOTERS THEY ARE IN THE WRONG PLACE AND THEY SHOULD COME TO YOU.

HAPPENED HERE, THE MEN IN PARTICULAR, YOUNG MEN, WERE BEING TOLD YOU SHOULD CARE MORE ABOUT THIS ISSUE AND THEREFORE VOTE FOR US.

RATHER THAN ASKING THEM WHAT YOU CARE ABOUT?

IT TURNS OUT THAT ABORTION WAS MUCH LOWER ON THE LIST.

>> WHAT ARE SOME DATA POINTS THAT YOU WANT TO USE TO SAY THAT THERE IS THE CRISIS OF MEN AND YOUNG MEN BEING UNADDRESSED?

>> NONE OF THE PROBLEMS FACING YOUNG MEN TODAY ARE THE RESULT OF DELIBERATE ANTI-MALE POLICIES.

THAT IS AN IDEA THAT HAS TAKEN HOLD ON THE RIGHT, THAT IS NOT TRUE.

THE IDEA OF NEGLECT AND LOOKING AWAY.

THE OPPORTUNITY HERE IS FOR A POLITICAL MESSAGE SUPPORTED BY POLICY, WHICH IS AN AND ROLE, RATHER THAN AN ORDER MESSAGE.

THE LACK OF REPRESENTATION AND WOMEN IN SENIOR LEADERSHIP AND THE STEM JOBS, ET CETERA.

AND WE ARE GOING TO TACKLE THE GROWING MALE THE STRUGGLES OF BOYS IN OUR EDUCATION SYSTEM AND THE DIFFICULTIES THAT YOUNG MEN ARE HAVING ENTERING THE LABOR MARKET.

IF WE CAN GET PAST THAT, WE HAVE TO RISE TOGETHER MESSAGE.

AGAIN, THE IRONY IS THAT ACTUALLY A FEMALE HEADED TICKET MAY HAVE MORE PERMISSION TO DO THAT.

IF KAMALA HARRIS HAD, STRONGLY SAYING I HAVE AN AGENDA FOR MEN.

HERE'S MY POLICY PLATFORM FOR MEN INCLUDING MORE VOCATIONAL LEARNING, MATERNITY LEAVE FOR MEN.

A PUSH TO GET MORE MALE TEACHERS.

A COACH FOR AMERICA PROGRAM AND HERE IS MY AGENDA TO HELP WOMEN, TOO.

THAT WOULD HAVE SPOKEN TO THE MOM WHO IS TERRIFIED ABOUT, FOR EXAMPLE, ACCESS TO REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH CARE, BUT ALSO REALLY WORRIED ABOUT HER SON IN SCHOOL, WORRIED ABOUT HER BROTHERS MENTAL HEALTH.

BECAUSE ACTUALLY IN THE REAL WORLD RIGHT NOW, MOTHERS, FATHERS ARE AS WORRIED ABOUT THE MEN AND THE WOMEN AND THE BOYS AND GIRLS IN THEIR LIVES FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.

WE HAVE NOT HAD IT YET FROM EITHER SIDE, BUT THERE IS SPACE FOR A POLITICS AND POLICY PLATFORM THAT MANAGES TO DO TWO THINGS AT ONCE.

AND MANAGES TO ADVOCATE FOR CHANGES THAT WOULD HELP BOYS AND MEN WITHOUT DOING LESS FOR WOMEN AND GIRLS.

RIGHT NOW IT FEELS AS IF THE CHOICE IS BETWEEN A REPUBLICAN PARTY.

IN ITS MESSAGING THAT SOMETIMES FEELS LIKE IT WANTS TO TURN BACK THE CLOCK ON WOMEN.

THE DEMOCRAT PARTY THAT HAS TURNED ITS BACK ON MEN.

AND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THOSE TWO EXTREMES, THERE'S A CONSTRUCTIVE NON-ZERO-SUM POLITICS WHICH SAYS WE RISE TOGETHER.

THAT MEANS WE CARE AS MUCH ABOUT THE YOUNG MEN WHO ARE FALLING BEHIND AS THE YOUNG WOMEN WHO ARE STRUGGLING TO RISE.

INSTITUTE FOR BOYS AND MEN, RICHARD REEVE, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANKS HARI.