Tsedale Lemma Discusses What Could Come Next for Ethiopia

SO CAN YOU HELP US CLEAR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BIT CONFUSING FROM THE GOVERNMENT, THEY'RE ISSUING STATEMENTS SAYING THE MEDIA IS OVERHYPING THE CURRENT SITUATION AND WE'RE ALSO HEARING THE TPLF FORCES ARE MARCHING CLOSER TO THE CAPITAL.

WHICH ONE IS IT?

WELL, THAT'S A COMBINATION OF SEVERAL FACTORS.

WHILE I DO DISAGREE WITH THE ASSESSMENT THAT THE TPLF OR THE TIGRE DEFENSE FORCES, OR THE LIBERATION ARMY ARE APPROACHING ON THE CITY, THERE ARE FACTORS THAT HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE SENSE OF HYPERBOLE THERE AND THE GOVERNMENT ITSELF IS A PARTY TO THAT.

NOT ONLY THE MEDIA, AND YES THE TIGRE FORCES HAVE BEEN SAYING THAT THEY WOULD NOT RULE OUT WALKING INTO THE STREETS OF ADDIS IF THAT IS WHAT IT TAKES TO BREAK THE SIEGE.

THAT THEY SAY THE GOVERNMENT HAS LAID ON TIGRE, AFTER THE 28th OF JUNE, WHEN THE GOVERNMENT FORCES HAVE LEFT THE CAPITAL IN WHAT THEY DESCRIBE AS A DEFEAT FOR THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SAID IT WAS A CEASE-FIRE.

SO EVER SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN A SIEGE OF TIGRE.

COMMUNICATION CUTDOWN, BANKS CLOSED.

TRANSPORT BLOCKED.

HUMANITARIAN AID NOT ABLE TO TRICKLE THERE AS IT'S WANTED.

SO THE FORCES ARE SAYING IF THAT'S WHAT IT TAKES TO -- IF MARCHING INTO ADDIS IS WHAT IT TAKES TO BREAK THE SIEGE, WE WILL DO IT.

SO THAT'S ONE FACTOR WHEN THEY ANNOUNCED THAT AND THE OTHER FACTOR IS THE NEWS THAT THEY HAVE TAKEN CONTROL OF KEY CITIES IN THE STATE WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN LAUNCHING MILITARY OFFENSIVE AFTER THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY.

SO THE CONTROL OF THOSE KEY CITIES BY THE FORCES SEND A REPORT ABOUT THEIR CONTROL OF IT.

I WOULD NOT BE VERY MUCH SURE BECAUSE ANY COMMUNICATION IS CUT DOWN THERE.

THAT HAS ALSO CONTRIBUTED THAT SENSE OF URGENCY THEY ARE JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED KILOMETERS AWAY FROM THE CAPITAL CITY.

THAT IS COMPOUNDED YET AGAIN BY THE GOVERNMENT'S DECLARATION OF A NATIONWIDE STATE OF EMERGENCY.

AND THE PRIME MINISTER'S CALL OF THE ADDIS ABABA RESIDENCE TO TAKE UP ANY WEAPON THEY HAVE AND DEFEND THE CITY.

SO, YOU KNOW, JOURNALISTS HAVE SORT OF ASSAULT TO THIS HYPERBOLE THAT IT WAS ALREADY IN THE AIR, CONTRIBUTING TO THIS MASSIVE AMOUNT OF TENSION THAT HAS BEEN REFLECTED MOSTLY ONLINE, PEOPLE ON THE GROUND, SOME ARE, YOU KNOW, TRYING TO REMAIN CALM IN WHAT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN BUT IT HAS CREATED A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PANIC, AND FEAR.

LUCKILY THAT IS SUBSIDING NOW, THE GOVERNMENT IS ANNOUNCING AND OTHER JOURNALISTS WHO COULD BE ABLE TO WALK AROUND ARE SAYING THERE ARE NO APPROACHING REBELS AS WE SPEAK.

SO THINGS ARE GETTING CALMER AGAIN.

BUT FAR FROM BEING OVER.