11.02.2020

Veteran Reporter Analyzes Trump’s Chances at Re-Election

It’s the last day before the last day of voting – what we’d ordinarily call Election Day – and America stands at a crossroads. Tim Alberta is a veteran reporter who has closely documented the Republican Party for years, and joins the program to assess the state of the race – and of the GOP.

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YOU'VE BEEN REALLY DOING A DEEP DIVE FOR THE LAST TEN YEARS.

YOU'VE WRITTEN BOOKS, YOU'VE DONE THE REPORTING, YOU'VE TALKED TO MANY, MANY REPUBLICANS OF ALL STRIDES AND OTHERS.

NONETHELESS, I'M REALLY INTERESTED TO KNOW HOW YOU'RE FEELING ON THE EVE OF THIS ELECTION RIGHT NOW.

YOU KNOW, WHAT I'M STRUCK BY IS THAT WIN OR LOSE, THE PRESIDENT'S COALITION OF VOTERS TODAY ON THE EVE OF THIS RE-ELECTION LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN IT DID FOUR YEARS AGO.

THERE HAS BEEN ANY AT OF MYTHOLOGIZING OF THE WHITE WORKING CLASS IN MIDDLE AMERICA WHO WAS LEFT BEHIND BY BOTH THE PARTIES, THIS OUTSIDER, THIS INSURGENT, THIS REBEL WHO WAS WILLING TO STICK IT TO WASHINGTON IN A WAY THAT THEY HAD THEMSELVES BEEN WANTING TO DO FOR SO LONG.

IT IS NOT IN DISPUTE THAT THEY WERE THE BEATING HEART OF DONALD TRUMP'S BASE.

WHAT WE OFTEN OVERLOOK IS HOW THE PRESIDENT IN 2016 WON THAT ELECTION VERY NARROWLY WITH THE BENEFIT OF A COALITION OF VOTERS, INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT FROM COLLEGE EDUCATED SUBURBANITES.

SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT FROM INDEPENDENTS, FROM SENIORS OVER THE AGE OF 65.

YOU FAST FORWARD FOUR YEARS, ALL OF THOSE KEY PIECES OF THE COALITION HAVE FADED CONSIDERABLY IN TERMS OF THEIR SUPPORT FOR THE PRESIDENT.

SENIORS WERE A GROUP THEY CARRIED IN THE LAST ELECTION.

HE IS NOW IN ALMOST EVERY POLL AND THE POLLING AVERAGES TRAILING ANYWHERE 7 TO FINAL POINTS.

THAT'S A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SWING.

THE SAIL STORY WITH COLLEGE EDUCATED WHITE SUBURBANITES OUTSIDE DETROIT IN MICHIGAN, OUTSIDE MILWAUKEE AND WISCONSIN, OUTSIDE PHILADELPHIA IN PENNSYLVANIA.

THESE WERE THE STATES.

THEY WERE THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE BETWEEN A WIS AND A LOSS FOUR YEARS AGO.

TRUMP CARRIED THOSE THREE STATES BY A COMBINED 77,744 VOTES.

SO HE'S WORKING WITH SUCH A SMALL MARGIN OF ERROR THAT ANY BLEEDING OF THOSE VOTERS FROM FOUR YEARS AGO IS GOING TO DO REAL DAMAGE TO HIM.

THE QUESTION HAS BEEN, AND WILL BE, THROUGH ELECTION EVE, HAS THE PRESIDENT FOUND ADDITIONAL VOTERS AND BROUGHT THEM OUT?

About This Episode EXPAND

Veteran reporter Tim Alberta assesses the state of the presidential race and the GOP. Historian Jon Meacham explains why he’s endorsing Joe Biden. John McCain’s former Chief of Staff Mark Salter discusses the late senator’s legacy.

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