What’s China’s Endgame With Regard to Taiwan?

SHEENA GREITENS, EAST ASIA AND NATIONAL SECURITY EXPERT: Over the weekend what we saw is that China sent a large number of planes into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone. An Air Defense Identification Zone is a space around the island of Taiwan that extends beyond national airspace. National airspace actually only extends about 12 miles from Taiwan’s coastline. And so a lot of countries choose to have an Air Defense Identification Zone which is larger, to give the country and military time to respond to incoming foreign aircraft if they need to. And what was concerning about the planes that China sent was the number. It was actually more in four days than the entire previous month but also the specific type of planes. There were planes that typically don’t do these kinds of flights we have seen in the past and the timing. So they’re practicing doing these flights at night. What that suggests is that China is practicing and trying to gain some very specific military advantages by conducting these types of operations. And there are three or four things that they would get out of doing this on the military part. And then there’s also sort of political signaling logic here. So on the military part, China is probably testing Taiwan’s reaction. It’s seeing how good are they at monitoring planes that are coming into the Air Defense Identification Zone, how quick are they to respond and what is the response when China sends different types of planes and different combinations of planes. So testing Taiwan’s response is one. Second, China is practicing coordinating its own air forces. So China had a very rapid military buildup. Its pilots are still learning how to do complex operations at increasingly greater distances from bases. And so they just need the practice in a very pragmatic military sense. Third is that this is really expensive for Taiwan to respond to, both the fuel costs, it’s hard on the pilots. And remember, China has about 1,500 fighters. Taiwan has only about 400 and a lot of those planes are older. So this also really just wears down and wears out Taiwan’s ability to defend itself. So one reason why China’s doing that is that there is some really concrete military benefits to this kind of increased operational tempo. It puts a lot of pressure on Taiwan.