Why Expert Jamie Metzl Thinks COVID-19 Was Likely a Lab Leak

> NOW TURNING BACK TO THE PANDEMIC, THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL PRESIDENT AND THE EUROPEAN COMMISSIONER PRESIDENT ARE CALLING FOR AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE ORIGINS OF COVID-19.

THIS AS PRESIDENT BIDEN ASKED THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE TO REDOUBLE ITS INVESTIGATIVE EFFORTS.

OUR NEXT GUEST IS AN ADVISOR TO THE W.H.O.'S COMMITTEE ON HUMAN GENOME EDITING.

JAMIE METZEL WAS ONE OF THE FIRST IN WASHINGTON TO SAY THAT THE VIRUS LIKELY ESCAPED FROM A LAB IN WUHAN, CHINA.

ONCE DISMISSED AS A CONSPIRACY, IT'S A THEORY GAINING TRACTION TODAY.

HERE'S OUR HARI SREENIVASAN.

THANKS FOR JOINING US.

LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THAT HYPOTHESIS.

ONE OF THE THINGS YOU TALK ABOUT IS YOU ACTUALLY GO BACK TO 2012.

WHAT DOES SOMETHING THAT HAPPENED IN 2012 HAVE TO DO WITH THE VIRUS THAT IS RAVAGING THE PLANET RIGHT NOW?

SO IT MAY BE VERY, VERY RELEVANT AND IT MAY NOT BE RELEVANT, BUT IN 2012 SIX CHINESE MINERS IN A SOUTHERN PROVINCE WERE SENT DOWN INTO AN ABANDONED COPPER MINE TO CLEAN BAT MANURE.

ALL OF THEM BECAME SERIOUSLY ILL WITH A CONDITION THAT NOW LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO SARS COVI 2.

THEY WERE BROUGHT TO A HOSPITAL IN THE SOUTH.

THREE OF THEM DIED.

BUT THEN BLOOD SAMPLES WERE TAKEN FROM THOSE MINERS AND SENT TO THE WUHAN INSTITUTE OF VIROLOGY.

TEAMS FROM THE INSTITUTE OF VIROLOGY WENT DOWN ONCE OR TWICE PER YEAR DOWN TO THAT MINE WHERE THEY COLLECTED MANY THOUSANDS OF VIRAL SAMPLES INCLUDING AT LEAST NINE BAT CORONAVIRUSES.

THOSE VIRUSES WERE BEING HELD IN THE REPOSITORY AT THE WUHAN INSTITUTE OF VIROLOGY WHICH HAD THE WORLD'S LARGEST AND HAS THE WORLD'S LARGEST COLLECTION OF BAT CORONAVIRUSES AND WAS DOING SOME PRETTY AGGRESSIVE RESEARCH TO UNDERSTAND THOSE VIRUSES AND TO ASSESS THEIR ABILITY TO INFECT HUMAN CELLS.

ACCORDING TO ONE POSSIBLE PERMUTATION OF THE LAB INCIDENT HYPOTHESIS, EITHER A LATER VERSION PERHAPS OF THE VIRUS THAT WAS TAKEN FROM THOSE BLOOD SAMPLES OR ANOTHER SAMPLE TAKEN FROM ONE OF THOSE MINES OR EVEN ANOTHER SAMPLE TAKEN FROM ELSEWHERE COULD EASILY THROUGH SOME KIND OF ACCIDENTAL LAB INCIDENT BEEN THE STARTING POINT OF THE PANDEMIC.

SO WHEN YOU SAY THE TYPE OF RESEARCH THEY'RE DOING, THERE'S A PHRASE THAT KEEPS COMING UP IN THESE STORIES, WHICH IS GAIN OF FUNCTION.

WHAT IS GAIN AND FUNCTION AND WHY WOULD ANY LAB BE DOING IT?

SO IT'S A REALLY IMPORTANT QUESTION.

THE FIRST THING IS THAT GAIN OF FUNCTION IS NOT REALLY A SCIENTIFIC TERM.

SO FROM THE LAYMAN'S UNDERSTANDING, GAIN OF FUNCTION IS YOU HAVE A VIRUS AND YOU GIVE IT SOME ADDITIONAL FUNCTION.

WHEN ANYBODY GETS GENE THERAPY OR SOME OF THE VACCINES BEING DELIVERED BY WHAT WE CALL VIRAL VECTORS THAT IS GAIN OF FUNCTION, GETTING A VIRUS TO DO SOMETHING OTHER THAN WHAT IT WAS INTENDED TO DO.

SO THIS KIND OF WAS IT OR WASN'T IT DEBATE THAT WE'RE ENGAGED IN HERE IN THE UNITED STATES, I THINK IT'S THE WRONG DEBATE, BUT CERTAINLY IN GAIN OF FUNCTION IT CAN BE A LOT OF THINGS.

THE THING WE'RE REALLY WORRIED ABOUT IS WERE THEY WORKING TO MAKE SCARY VIRUSES EVEN MORE SCARY?

AND THE ANSWER TO THAT IS ALMOST CERTAINLY YES, THEY WERE VERY LIKELY, ALMOST CERTAINLY DOING IT TO UNDERSTAND THOSE VIRUSES, TO UNDERSTAND HOW THEY MIGHT INFECT HUMANS.

THAT'S WHY THE ISSUE OF GAIN OF FUNCTION HAD BEEN SO CONTROVERSIAL, SO CONTROVERSIAL THAT IN 2014 THERE WAS A MORATORIUM ON U.S. GOVERNMENT FUNDING SUPPORT FOR IT, WHICH WAS LIFTED IN 2017.

I THINK IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT THAT WE LOOK AT WHAT WAS THE ACTUAL WORK THAT WAS BEING DONE RATHER THAN HAVE IT BE LIKE A BINARY TEST OF WAS IT OR WASN'T IT, QUOTE UNQUOTE, GAIN OF FUNCTION RESEARCH.

SO HOW DO WE KNOW THAT THE THEORY THAT THIS VIRUS ORIGINATED IN A WET MARKET IS NOT TRUE OR IS LESS LIKELY TO BE TRUE?

IF WE KNEW IT ORIGINATED FROM THE WET MARKET, THEN WE WOULD SEE THAT ALL OF THE KNOWN SAMPLES, ALL OF THE KNOWN SEQUENCES OF THE VIRUS TAKEN CERTAINLY FROM PEOPLE WHO WERE INFECTED WOULD SHOW GENETIC MUTATIONS ON THE FAMILY TREE THAT SHOWS THEY WERE LATER THAN THE INFECTIONS IN THE MARKET.

BUT WE KNOW AT THE END OF JANUARY 2020 FROM A PAPER THAT 45% OF THE EARLIEST CASES HAD NO EXPOSURE TO THAT MARKET, EITHER INDIVIDUALLY OR THROUGH FAMILY MEMBERS.

SO FOR ME, THAT WAS WHAT GOT ME TO START ASKING THESE VERY TOUGH QUESTIONS THAT HAVE LED TO THIS YEAR AND A HALF INCREDIBLE JOURNEY BECAUSE I KNEW ENOUGH ABOUT THE SCIENCE TO KNOW THAT THAT MEANT PRETTY MUCH THAT THE WET MARKET WASN'T THE ORIGIN AND I KNEW ENOUGH ABOUT CHINA TO KNOW THAT WHEN THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT STARTS LYING ESSENTIALLY ABOUT SOMETHING LIKE THIS, AS WAS THE CASE IN EARLY SARS, AS WAS THE CASE WHEN THE FIRST SPEED TRAIN CRASHED AND THEY QUICKLY DUG A HOLE AND THREW THE TRAIN INTO THE HOLE, THAT WE HAVE TO START LOOKING DEEPLY.

AND THE MORE I DUG, THE MORE QUESTIONS THAT WERE RAISED AND I STARTED SOUNDING THE ALARM EARLY LAST YEAR.

AND I HAVE TO SAY AS A PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRAT, I WAS ATTACKED BY MANY OF MY CLOSEST FRIENDS WHO SAID WHAT ARE YOU DOING, YOU'RE SUPPORTING TRUMP IN AN ELECTION YEAR.

I SAID TO THEM, IT'S NOT TRUMP.

IT'S NOT ABOUT THE MESSENGER.

IT'S ABOUT THE MESSAGE.

WE'RE LIVING THROUGH THE WORLD'S WORST PANDEMIC IN A CENTURY.

WE ALL ARE STAKEHOLDERS IN FIGURING OUT WHAT HAPPENED SO WE CAN ADDRESS OUR GREATEST VULNERABILITIES.

GIVE ME AN IDEA OF WHY YOU'RE SKEPTICAL OF THE HUMAN ANIMAL THEORY.

WHAT WERE THE CONDITIONS IN WUHAN AT THE TIME THAT GAVE YOU PAUSE OR THAT IT HAPPENED IN WUHAN IN THE FIRST PLACE?

THERE HAVE BEEN OTHER VIRUSES IN OTHER PARTS OF ASIA.

SO IN DEFENSE OF THE NATURAL ORIGINS HYPOTHESIS, THERE HAVE BEEN THOUSANDS OF LAB INCIDENTS THAT HAVE BEEN INFECTED PEOPLE AND HARMED PEOPLE.

THERE'S NEVER BEEN AS FAR AS WE KNOW A MASSIVE GLOBAL PATHOGENIC OUTBREAK THAT COMES FROM A LAB INCIDENT.

SO THIS MAY VERY WELL BE THE FIRST.

SO THAT ALONE GIVES SOME EXPLANATION FOR WHY THIS COULD BE.

BUT I'VE SAID THIS BEFORE, QUOTING HUMPHREY BOGART IN CASABLANCA, OF ALL THE GIN JOINTS IN ALL THE TOWNS IN ALL THE WORLD, SHE HAS TO STEP INTO MINE.

SO LET'S JUST SAY THIS IS A VIRUS AND THAT IT'S A BAT CORONAVIRUS STEMMING FROM HORSESHOE BATS WITH THEIR RANGE IN SOUTHERN CHINA.

IF THAT'S THE CASE, WHY WUHAN?

WUHAN DOESN'T HAVE HORSESHOE BATS.

IT'S HUNDREDS OF MILES AWAY FROM THEIR MIGRATORY RANGE.

IT DOES HAVE CHINA'S ONLY LEVEL 4 VIROLOGY INSTITUTE WITH THE WORLD'S LARGEST COLLECTION OF BAT CORONAVIRUSES.

IT'S A PRETTY BIG COINCIDENCE.

LOTS OF OTHER CITIES IN CHINA HAVE WET MARKETS, LOTS OF OTHER CITIES THAT ARE TRANSPORTATION HUBS.

IT'S PRETTY HARD TO EXPLAIN, BUT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT RARE OCCURRENCES.

EVERY PATHOGENIC OUTBREAK IS A RARE OCCURRENCE.

THAT'S WHY I'M SAYING THAT EVEN THOUGH I BELIEVE THE LAB INCIDENT ORIGIN IS THE MOST LIKELY HYPOTHESIS, IT'S STILL A HYPOTHESIS AND THE NATURAL ORIGINS HYPOTHESIS IS STILL A HYPOTHESIS ALSO.

THAT'S WHY WE NEED A COMPREHENSIVE INVESTIGATION WITH FULL ACCESS TO RECORDS, SAMPLES AND PERSONNEL IN CHINA FIRST AND FOREMOST AND THEN AS APPROPRIATE OUTSIDE OF CHINA.

LOOK, LAST YEAR THERE WERE ALSO A FEW DIFFERENT LETTERS SIGNED BY DOZENS OF SCIENTISTS WHO SAID, YOU KNOW WHAT, THIS IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT ZOONOTIC.

THIS IS SOMETHING THAT PROBABLY HAPPENED FROM ANIMAL TO HUMAN.

THE EVIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE FOR A LAB LEAK.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THEM SAYING THAT AT THAT TIME?

SO THE REASON WHY I'VE BEEN SUCH A CRITIC OF THOSE TWO LETTERS.

FIRST WAS IN THE LANCE ETIN FEBRUARY IS THAT THESE SCIENTISTS WERE CLAIMING A CERTAINTY THAT WASN'T SUPPORTED BY THE AVAILABLE EVIDENCE.

SO BY SAYING IN THE LANCET LETTER THAT IT WAS EXTREMELY LIKELY THAT THIS HAD A NATURAL ORIGIN AND THAT ANYONE, PEOPLE LIKE ME WHO WERE WITH THE BEST OF INTENTIONS IN TRYING TO HAVE THE MOST OPEN MIND POSSIBLE, ANYONE WHO IS SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LAB INCIDENT EVEN A SCENARIO WHERE IT WAS VERY BENIGN, CHINESE RESEARCHERS WORKING TO DEVELOP VACCINES WHO HAD AN ACCIDENTAL INCIDENT, ANYONE WAS A CONSPIRACY THEORIST.

THAT'S WHY I'VE BEEN SUCH A CRITIC OF THAT LETTER.

I'VE CALLED IT SIGNIFICANT PROPAGANDA, NOT SCIENCE.

ESPECIALLY IN TRYING TIMES LIKE THOSE, WE CAN'T COMPROMISE THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD.

I THINK THAT THAT LETTER AND THAT PAPER CROSSED THE LINE FROM DATA DRIVEN SCIENCE INTO POLITICS BASED ON A DESIRED OUTCOME.

CERTAINLY IT PROBABLY WOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE FOR MANY PEOPLE IF THE STORY IS NATURAL ORIGIN.

I MEAN, THE IDEA OF A LAB INCIDENT FOLLOWED BY A CRIMINAL COVERUP IS A LOT TO SWALLOW FOR MANY PEOPLE.

WE HAVE SEEN FOOTAGE OF EXPERTS WITH THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION DOWN IN WUHAN, AND FROM THE OUTSIDE IT LOOKS LIKE WHAT YOU'RE DESCRIBING IS ACTUALLY WHAT'S HAPPENING, IS THAT PEOPLE ARE ABLE TO GO THROUGH THEIR BOOKS.

WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT THE TYPE OF ACCESS THE VISITORS HAVE HAD, WHETHER THERE'S ANY SORT OF AN INVESTIGATION, AND WHAT THE SORT OF END RESULT WILL BE?

IT'S A CRITICALLY IMPORTANT QUESTION.

I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO PAY ATTENTION TO THE NEWS HAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT THERE IS A WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION INVESTIGATION INTO PANDEMIC ORIGINS.

I THINK IT MAY SURPRISE A LOT OF PEOPLE TO KNOW THAT IS ABSOLUTELY NOT THE CASE, NOR HAS IT EVER BEEN THE CASE.

LAST YEAR THE WORLD HEALTH ASSEMBLY, WHICH IS THE GOVERNING BODY OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION, PASSED A RESOLUTION SUPPORTED BY THE CHINESE THAT DIDN'T CALL FOR AN INVESTIGATION INTO PANDEMIC ORIGINS, BUT FOR A JOINT STUDY INTO ONE HYPOTHESIS, THE NATURAL ORIGINS HYPOTHESIS, CARRIED OUT BY A JOINT TEAM OF INDEPENDENT INTERNATIONAL EXPERTS COORGANIZED BY THE W.H.O. AND THEIR CHINESE GOVERNMENT COUNTERPARTS.

THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT HAD VETO POWER OVER WHO GOT TO BE A MEMBER OF THE INTERNATIONAL TEAM AND IT WAS AGREED THAT MOST OF THE DATA WOULD NOT BE PRIMARY DATA.

THEY WOULDN'T HAVE ACCESS TO THAT, BUT THEY WOULD BE GIVEN THE CONCLUSIONS MADE BY CHINESE GOVERNMENT AFFILIATED SCIENTISTS.

THEY WERE ON THE GROUND FOR A MONTH, TWO WEEKS IN QUARANTINE.

AND THEN OF THE TWO WEEKS THEY HAD, THEY DIDN'T HAVE FREEDOM OF ACCESS.

IT WAS A HIGHLY CHAPERONED, CURATED STUDY TOUR.

ONE OF THE FIRST STOPS THEY MADE WAS TO THE CHINESE PANDEMIC PROPAGANDA MUSEUM.

THEY WERE FILMED BY THE CHINESE MEDIA DOING THAT.

AT THE END, THEY HAD A VOTE OVER WHICH WERE THE MORE OR LESS LIKELY SCENARIOS.

AND THEN THEY VOTED THAT THE NATURAL ORIGINS WAS THE MOST LIKELY AND THE LAB INCIDENT WAS THE LEAST LIKELY.

DO YOU THINK THAT IF YOU OR ANYONE WAS A MEMBER, ONE OF THESE EXPERTS AND YOU RAISED YOUR HAND WHEN THEY SAID, HEY, DO YOU THINK A LAB ORIGIN INCIDENT WAS LIKELY, IF YOU RAISED YOUR HAND, YOU WOULD BE IN THAT ENVIRONMENT IN THE SAME SITUATION AS THE CITIZEN JOURNALISTS WHO JUST ASKED THE MOST BASIC QUESTIONS AND WERE DISAPPEARED OR ARRESTED AND A NUMBER OF THEM ARE NOW IN JAIL.

YOU CAN'T IMAGINE THAT WE'RE DEALING WITH SWITZERLAND HERE.

THAT'S WHY WE NEED TO DEMAND THE KIND OF ACCESS TO THE RECORDS, SAMPLES AND PERSONNEL THAT'S NEEDED FOR A FULL INVESTIGATION.

AND WE HAVE MANDATE FOR A FULL INVESTIGATION, WHICH WE DON'T CURRENTLY HAVE.

PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS ASKED HIS INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY TO GET HIM A REPORT IN 90 DAYS, LOOKING AT THE CAUSES OF THIS.

WHAT DOES THAT DO TO SPUR ALL OF THIS?

BECAUSE IF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION IS NOT LAUNCHING ANY SORT OF INVESTIGATION, WHAT CAN THE U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY GATHER IF CHINA REMAINS UNCOOPERATIVE?

I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE U.S.

INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY IS GOING TO COME UP WITH.

MY GUESS IS THEY AREN'T GOING TO BE ABLE TO CONCLUSIVELY PROVE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

AND IF THAT'S THE CASE, THEN I CERTAINLY BELIEVE THE NEXT STEPS WILL BE TO ESTABLISH A U.S.

NATIONAL COVID-19 COMMISSION LOOKING AT MANY THINGS, INCLUDING THE ORIGINS QUESTION.

BUT WE ALSO NEED TO ESTABLISH SOMETHING ON THE INTERNATIONAL LEVEL.

IN THE BEST CASE SCENARIO, THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION CAN BE AT THE FOREFRONT OF THIS, BUT THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION IS CONTROLLED BY STATES, AND CHINA HAS DONE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT TO BLOCK THE KIND OF INVESTIGATION THAT'S NEEDED.

IF WE CAN GET TO A PHASE TWO WITH THIS JOINT STUDY PROCESS, THAT WOULD BE GREAT.

IF NOT, THOUGH, WE CAN'T GIVE CHINA A VETO OVER WHETHER OR NOT WE, AMERICA AND THE WORLD, INVESTIGATES THE ORIGINS OF THE WORST PANDEMIC IN A CENTURY.

SO IF THAT IS WHAT HAPPENED, THEN I THINK IT WOULD BE ENTIRELY APPROPRIATE TO HAVE AN INTERNATIONAL EFFORT.

GREAT IF CHINA WILL PARTICIPATE.

IF THEY WON'T, IT'S DEEPLY UNFORTUNATE, BUT WE STILL NEED TO MOVE FORWARD.

WHAT ARE THE GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS HERE?

LET'S PARSE OUT TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS.

ONE, THAT THE HYPOTHESIS OF A LAB LEAK IS PROVED, IN WHICH CASE THEY COVERED IT UP.

AND THEN THE OTHER, WHICH IS THAT THE LAB LEAK IS DISPROVED, WHICH LEAVES US KIND OF WHERE WE ARE NOW.

WE STILL DON'T KNOW HOW THIS THING GOT TO BE WHAT IT IS.

WELL, I DON'T THINK IT LEAVES US WHERE WE ARE NOW.

LET'S GO THROUGH THOSE TWO HYPOTHETICALS.

LET'S JUST SAY HYPOTHETICALLY THE LAB INCIDENT ORIGIN HYPOTHESIS IS 100% PROVEN.

IF THAT WERE THE CASE, THAT THERE'S A LAB INCIDENT ORIGIN FOLLOWED BY A COVERUP, THE IMPLICATIONS WOULD BE JUST MASSIVE.

I THINK ONE POSSIBILITY IS CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING COULD BE OVERTHROWN.

THE LEVEL OF OUTRAGE FROM AROUND THE WORLD FROM PEOPLE WHO HAVE LOST FAMILY MEMBERS AND FRIENDS WOULD BE ASTRONOMICAL.

THERE WOULD BE MASSIVE DEMANDS FOR REPARATIONS, JUST THE GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS WOULD BE HUGE.

IF IT WERE TOTALLY DISPROVEN, THEN I THINK IT'S ACTUALLY A CONVENIENT THING FOR EVERYBODY, BECAUSE THEN WE COULD SAY, ALL RIGHT, WELL, WE KNOW THAT WE'RE FACING THIS TERRIBLE THREAT AND WE KNOW THAT IN THIS CASE IF IT DOESN'T COME FROM A LAB ACCIDENT, IT ALMOST CERTAINLY COMES FROM A ZOONOTIC JUMP.

HOW DO WE FOSTER THE KIND OF COLLABORATION THAT WE NEED TO ADDRESS THIS PROBLEM?

HOW DO WE LIMIT THE ENCROACHMENT IN WILD SPACES THAT IS INCREASING INTO WILD SPACES THAT'S INCREASING THE RISK OF THIS KIND OF OUTBREAK.

YOU COULD SAY, WELL, WE KNOW WE NEED TO PROTECT WILD SPACES, WE KNOW WE NEED GREATER INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND WE KNOW WE NEED TO IMPROVE THE SECURITY OF HIGH CONTAINMENT VIROLOGY FACILITIES AROUND THE WORLD.

BUT IN THE REAL WORLD WE KNOW THERE'S A BIG DIFFERENCE IN PRIORITIZATION.

IF WE KNEW IT WAS A LAB INCIDENT TODAY, WE WOULD SAY, HEY, WAIT A SECOND, THERE ARE 59 LEVEL 4 VIROLOGY INSTITUTES AROUND THE WORLD.

CHINA IS ABOUT TO GO ON A MASSIVE BUILDING SPREE OF BUILDING ONE IN EVERY PROVINCE.

THESE ARE LARGELY UNGOVERNED, AT LEAST ON THE INTERNATIONAL LEVEL.

WAIT A SECOND HERE.

NOW YOU HAVE A BIG PUSH FOR THAT.

SO WE NEED TO DO ALL OF THESE THINGS, BUT IT'S CRITICALLY IMPORTANT THAT WE UNDERSTAND HOW THIS PANDEMIC STARTED, JUST LIKE UNDERSTANDING WHY EACH PLANE CRASHES SO WE CAN ADDRESS WHAT WE KNOW IS OUR BIGGEST AND MOST SERIOUS APPROXIMATE PROBLEM.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME.