Will a Robot Take Over Your Job?

> NEXT UP, NAVIGATING THE FUTURE AND DOMINATING AI, IN IT, THE NEW YORK TIMES TECHNOLOGY KEVIN RUSE ADVISES LEADERS NOT TO BE REPLACED BY MACHINES.

WE HAVE WORDS OF ROBOTS TAKING OUR JOBS.

IT IS NOT A NEW FEAR.

HOW HAVE THESE BIG TRANSITIONS WHEN WE THINK OF INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION?

USUALLY THE ANSWER IS HEY, YOU KNOW THIS ONE TECHNOLOGY MAY REPLACE A FEW JOBS BUT THERE IS GOING TO BE BETTER ONES.

HERE WE ARE 2021, WHERE ARE ALL MY EXTRA TIME?

THIS IS THE PARADOX, AUTOMATION AND TECHNOLOGY IN GENERAL IS SUPPOSED TO FREE US FROM WORK.

IT IS SUPPOSED TO DO OUR DIRTY WORK FOR US.

GIVE US MORE TIME DOING THE THINGS WE VALUE BUT INSTEAD AS OUR ECONOMY BECOMING TECHNOLOGICAL AND AUTOMATED, WE ARE WORKING MORE THAN EVER.

I WANT TO DIG IN AND SAY WHAT'S THE PICTURE HERE.

WHEN YOU LOOK BACK, THE STORY THAT'S TOLD ABOUT THEM IS THE VERY OPTIMISTIC ONE.

PEOPLE SAY WELL, SURE THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION FORCED PEOPLE TO LEARN NEW JOBS BUT ALL OF OUR LIVES BECOME BETTER AS A RESULTS AND I DON'T THINK A LOT OF US WOULD GO BACK AND EXIST.

IF YOU GO BACK AND LOOK AT THE ACCOUNTS OF PEOPLE LIVING THROUGH THINGS LIKE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION.

THOSE ARE HARD TIMES FOR PEOPLE.

THERE WAS A LOT OF POVERTY AND BRUTAL LABOR CONDITIONS AND CHILD LABOR BECAME POPULAR.

THINGS TOOK MANY DECADES TO RESOLVE AND WORKERS DID NOT SEE THE BENEFITS OF THE TECHNOLOGY RIGHT AWAY.

WHEN YOU THINK OF ROBOTS AND INNOVATION, WE HAVE A TENDENCY TO THINK OF THE FACTORY FLOOR.

AS YOU POINT OUT, THAT HORSE HAS LEFT THE BARN TWO DECADES AGO.

GIVE ME AN EXAMPLE OF HIGHER ORDER OF WHITE-COLLAR JOBS THAT'S SLOWLY REPLACED BY LITTLE PIECES OF AUTOMATION?

THE JOBS THAT ARE MOST ENDANGERED OF DISPLACED BY AI ARE WHITE COLLAR MANAGERIAL JOBS, THINGS LIKE SALES FORECASTING IS A JOB DONE BY COLLEGE STUDENTS AND WHO ARE PAID VERY WELL.

THAT'S A JOB THAT CAN BE DONE BY AI.

ALSO, JOBS LIKE RADIOLOGY OR DOCTORS WHO SPECIALIZES IN READING SCANS AND DIAGNOSING TUMORS AND THINGS LIKE THAT, THAT COULD BE DONE BY AI WITH A MUCH GREATER ACCURACY RATE AND THE BEST HUMAN RADIOLOGYISTSRADIOLOGISTS.

IT IS NOT JUST FAST FOOD WORKERS.

IT IS ALL KINDS OF JOBS WHO ARE DOING THE REPETITIVE, TECHNICAL WORK THAT CAN BE AUTOMATED.

DO YOU THINK THIS WILL HAVE A GREATER POLITICAL IMPACT BECAUSE WHITE COLLAR PEOPLE MAY HAVE MORE CONNECTED AND LAWYERS -- IN WAYS THAT SOMEBODY IS BEING REPLACED ON FACTORY FLOOR MAY NOT HAVE THE LAST 20 YEARS?

WELL, I THINK WHAT MAKES THAT CHALLENGING CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

IT IS A LOT THAT'S OBVIOUS WHEN A JOB IS BEING AUTOMATED NOW.

IN THE OLD DAYS YOU WOULD KNOW THAT YOUR JOB IS ENDANGERED BECAUSE A MACHINE WOULD SHOW UP ON THE FACTORY FLOOR, A PHYSICAL MACHINE THAT WOULD BE DOING THE SAME KIND OF WELDING AND MAYBE YOU WOULD HAVE A UNION.

YOUR UNION WOULD START TO WORRY ABOUT THIS AND BRING THIS UP WITH MANAGEMENT AND FIGURE OUT WHAT'S GOING ON.

MOST OF THE WHITE COLOR AUTOMATION IS HAPPENING IN NON NON-UNIONIZED.

IT IS ALL HAPPENING THROUGH SOFTWARE.

IT IS MORE LIKE YOUR I.T.

DEPARTMENT USES AN OFF THE RACK PIECE OF SOFTWARE THAT CAN REPLACE THE JOB THAT YOU USED TO DO?

COMING OUT OF THE PANDEMIC WE HAVE SEEN, FOR EXAMPLE, AND EVEN BEFORE THE PANDEMIC, WE HAVE KIOSK AT RENTAL CAR COUNTERS THAT I THOUGHT IS REALLY STRANGE.

I PREFER DEALING WITH HUMANS GETTING THINGS DONE FASTER AND NOW WE HAVE HOTEL CHAINS THINKING OF THIS, TOO.

UNDER THE GUIDE OF WE DON'T WANT YOU TO GET SICK OR OUR EMPLOYEES TO GET SICK, WE ARE JUST REPLACING THIS HUMAN WITH THIS KIOSK, I DON'T KNOW WHETHER THIS IS AS COVER THAT THESE COMPANIES NEEDED TO ROLL OUT THESE SCHEMES THAT WOULD DECREASE THEIR NEIGHBOR FORCE OR WHAT?

I TALKED TO A NUMBER OF AUTOMATION, EXECUTIVES FINALLY HAVE COVERED.

IF YOU AUTOMATE JOBS AND LAY OFF WORKERS AS A RESULT OF NEW TECHNOLOGY, PEOPLE ARE GOING TO GET MAD AT YOU.

IT IS MUCH EASIER TO DO THAT DURING THE PANDEMIC WHEN A LOT OF LAY OFFS ARE HAPPENING AND BUSINESSES ARE UNDER FINANCIAL PRESSURE TO CUT COST SO THE PANDEMIC GAVE THEM AN EXCUSE TO DO THAT AUTOMATION THAT THEY WANTED TO DO ALL ALONG.

SOMETHING IS HAPPENING TO THE ECKNOLOGY ITSELF WHICH IS GETTING MUCH, MUCH BETTER AND JUST IN THE LAST YEAR WE HAVE SEEN THINGS LIKE, THIS KIND OF LARGE LANGUAGE MODEL AI AND THAT CAN FINISH PEOPLE'S SENTENCES.

YOU CAN WRITE ONE SENTENCE AND IT WILL COMPLETE THE REST OF THE PARAGRAPH.

PEOPLE ARE TRYING TO USE THIS IN ALL KINDS OF WAY.

THIS IS A BREAK-THROUGH THAT WILL CHALLENGE A LOT OF PEOPLE'S JOBS.

SO I WANT TO TRANSITION TO A SECOND PART OF YOUR BOOK 'TAKE THE POWER BACK,' YOU KNOW IN A LOT OF WAYS WHAT YOU ARE SHOWING IN THE BOOK IS THAT WE HAVE QUIETLY RELINQUISH A LOT OF WHAT MAKES US HUMANS TO SOME OF THESE SUGGESTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.

YEAH, THAT'S AN INSIGHTFUL AND AN IMPORTANT POINT.

WHAT WE THOUGHT COMPUTERS DO IS HELP US.

STEVE JOBS SAID 'COMPUTERS ARE BICYCLES FOR THE MINDS,' IT ENABLES US TO DO MORE AND GIVE US MORE POWER.

WHAT'S BEEN HAPPENING WITH AI AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES IS THEY HAVE DRIVING US.

WE ARE THE BICYCLES AND THEY ARE TAKING US WHERE THEY WANT US TO GO.

NETFLIX MAY BE RECOMMENDING A SHOW THAT IT THINKS YOU LIKE OR IT MAY STEER VIEWERS TO A SHOW THAT IT PRODUCED BECAUSE IT WANTS YOU TO WATCH THAT SHOW.

THAT'S HAPPENING MORE AND MORE WHERE WE ARE BEING DRIVEN INTO DECISIONS THAT WE MAY NOT MAKE FOR OURSELVES.

I THINK THAT'S DANGEROUS BECAUSE PART OF BEING A HUMAN IS BEING ABLE TO MAKE YOUR OWN CHOICES AND EXERCISE YOUR OWN FREE WILL.

SO IF WE ARE IN THIS PLACE AND YOU HAVE FUTURE PROOF OURSELVES, MY QUESTION SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARILY WAS OUR JOB SAFE OR HOW DO I DO WHATEVER JOB THAT I HAVE THAT MAKES IT SAYER FROM BEING AUTOMATED AWAY?

YOU ARE EXACTLY RIGHT.

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A TOTALLY ROBOT PROOF JOB.

ANY JOB CAN BE AUTOMATED WITH ENOUGH TIME AND TECHNOLOGY.

THERE ARE SKILLS AND TRAITS THAT WE CAN HAVE THAT MAKE US HARDER TO REPLACE AND IT ALL BOILS DOWN TO HOW HUMAN WE ARE.

HOW DIFFERENTIATED WE ARE FROM A MACHINE.

AND SO EVERY JOB CONTAINS MULTITUDES, YOU CAN BE A RADIOLOIS READING SCANS ALL DAY OR YOU CAN BE A PEDIATRICIAN BUILDING A CONNECTION WITH PEOPLE, WHO'S INTERESTING AND HUMANE PERSON TO BE AROUND.

THAT'LL MAKE YOU MUCH HARDER TO AUTOMATE.

IN THE BOOK I TALKED ABOUT THREE CATEGORIES OF WORK THAT'S RESISTANCE TO AUTOMATION, I CALLED THEM SURPRISING AND SOCIAL AND SCARCE.

SURPRISING WORK THAT INVOLVES A LOT OF CHAOS AND NEW SITUATIONS LIKE BEING A KINDERGARTEN TEACHER.

SOCIAL JOBS ARE JOBS INVOLING MAKING PEOPLE FEELING A CERTAIN WAY LIKE A NURSE OR A BARISTA, THOSE JOBS ARE REALLY HARD TO REPLACE.

SCARCE JOBS ARE JOBS THAT INVOLVES RARE SKILLS OR COMBINATION OF SKILLS OR EXTRAORDINARY ABILITY OR HIGH-STAKE SITUATIONS, THINGS LIKE BEING A 911 OPERATOR, WE HAVE THE TECHNOLOGY TO AUTOMATE THAT JOB BUT WE CHOSE NOT TO BECAUSE WHEN WE ARE IN TROUBLE, WE WANT TO CALL 911 AND CONNECTIVELY BE CONNECTED TO HUMANS.

IF WE ARE IN THAT WORLD AND A COMPUTER CAN WRITE A BETTER PARAGRAPH THAN ME, WHERE SHOULD WE BE THINKING OF SENDING OUR KIDS TO SCHOOL?

WE HEAR THIS INTENSE PUSH FOR STEMS AND STEMS IN THE '90s AND ALL OF THESE COMPUTER PROGRAMMING AND SOFTWARE RELATED JOBS, THOSE NOW CAN BE DONE ALMOST AS WELL AS BY COMPUTERS.

SHOULD WE BE TEACHING KIDS HOW TO PLAY INSTRUMENTS?

YES, WE SHOULD BE REVITALIZING THESE SORT OF HUMAN SKILLS THAT CAN'T BE REPLICATED BY MACHINES.

THAT'S HOW WE ARE GOING TO ADD VALUES.

THERE IS NO USE COMPETING WITH AI ON THINGS LIKE EFFICIENCY OR ACCURACIES OR HUSTLE.

IT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE THAT YOU CAN WORK VERY HARD IF A MACHINE CAN WORK 24/7 AND DOING MILLIONS OF COMPUTATIONS PER SECOND.

WHERE WE CAN ADD VALUES IS SOFTER HUMAN SKILLS, COLLABORATIONS, THESE THINGS THAT WE DON'T TEACH ONCE PEOPLE GET TO A CERTAIN AGE.

THERE IS ADVENTURE CAPITALIST NAMED FRANK CHEN RECOMMENDS TO ALL HIS FOUNDERS THEY READ A BOOK CALLED 'ALL I NEED TO KNOW I LEARNED IN KINDERGARTEN' WHICH IS ONE OF THESE CLASSIC BOOKS OF RELEARNING THE SKILLS THAT WE LEARN AS SMALL CHILDREN, SHARING AND PLAYING WELL WITH OTHERS.

THESE ARE THE KINDS OF SKILL THAT IS HAVE A LOT OF VALUE IN A HIGHLY AUTOMATED WORLD.

WHAT ARE THOSE AND HOW DO WE ACCESS THEM AND HOW DO WE LEARN THEM?

THIS IS AN AREA WHERE WE COULD LOOK TO EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATORS FOR GUIDANCE.

SOCIAL AND EMOTIONAL LEARNING OF THESE BASIC HUMAN SKILLS, WE DO TEACH THEM TO SMALL CHILDREN AND WE STOP.

AND I THINK WE CAN REINTRODUCE SOME MORE OF THAT INTO HIGHER GRADE LEVELS AND I KNOW THERE ARE SOME COURSES NOW THAT ARE DESIGNED SORT OF, THEY CALL IT THINGS LIKE EMPATHY FOR ENGINEERS THAT ARE TRYING TO TEACH HUMAN SKILLS TO PEOPLE WHO ARE OLDER AND WHO HAVE SPECIALIZED SKILLS BUT AT MEDICAL SCHOOLS NOW, FOR EXAMPLE, THERE ARE COURSES THAT TEACH PEOPLE HOW TO COMMUNICATE BETTER WITH PATIENTS AND HOW TO DELIVER HARD NEWS AND HOW TO COMFORT PEOPLE WHO ARE GRIEVING OR SCARED.

THAT'S SOMETHING WE DID NOT USE TO TEACH MEDICAL STUDENTS.

NOW AS MEDICINE BECOMES HIGHLY AUTOMATED, IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO BE SMART TECHNICAL DOCTORS, WE HAVE TO BE GOOD AT RELATING THE PEOPLE.

WHAT ARE SOME EXAMPLES OF BUSINESSES THAT MAKE CONSCIOUS CHOICES TO AVOID THE EASY BUTTON TO PUT IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND HOW THAT MAY ACTUALLY WORKED FOR THEM BECAUSE OF WHAT IT IS THEY BRING TO THE TABLE NOW WHERE MAYBE IT IS MORE HUMAN?

WELL, THERE'S BEEN INTERESTING EXPERIMENTS WITH DE-AUTOMATION SO ONE EXAMPLE THAT I TALK ABOUT IN THE BOOK IS TESLA.

THEY HAD THIS PERIOD WHERE THEY REALLY WERE STRUGGLING TO MEET THEIR PRODUCTION TARGETS.

YOU WILL REMEMBER THIS A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO, THERE WAS A LOT OF NERVOUSNESS AND ANXIETY ABOUT WHETHER TESLA WAS MAKING ENOUGH CARS OR GOOD ENOUGH QUALITY?

THAT TURNED OUT TO BE IN LARGE PART THAT THEY OVER AUTOMATED THEIR FACTORIES.

SO I THINK WE ARE STARTING SEE SOME COMPANIES CORRECT OVER AUTOMATION AND THERE ARE COMPANIES THAT ARE VALUABLE BECAUSE OF THE THINGS THEY ARE SELLING ARE NOT AUTOMATED.

THERE IS A KIND OF EFFECT THAT WE'LL SEE WHERE THERE IS SORT OF GOODS AND SERVICES.

THINGS THAT ARE VALUABLE BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT AUTOMATED.

IT IS CHEAP TO GET MECHANICALLY OVER PRODUCED PRINT, IT IS BETTER TO GET THE HANDMADE ORIGINAL AND I THINK WE'LL START TO SEE IT APPLIED IN THE ECONOMY.

ONE OF THE SEGMENTS, US DEPENDING ON YOUR SMARTPHONES AND GOING THROUGH YOUR STRUGGLES OF DECREASING SCREEN TIME, WE HAVE INTERNALIZED THAT EFFICIENCY IS SO IMPORTANT BECAUSE IN THOSE TWO SECONDS OR THREE SECONDS THAT YOU ARE STANDING IN LINE SOME WHERE, OUR TENDENCY NOW IS TO LOOK DOWN IN OUR PHONE OF WHAT'S THAT ONE E-MAIL OR TWEET THAT I AM MISSING OUT ON VERSES JUST BEING THERE IN THAT MOMENT.

YEAH, THERE IS A CHAPTER IN THE BOOK ABOUT MY OWN PHONE DETOX.

I DID A 30-DAY PHONE DETOX.

I HAD A PHONE COACH GUIDE ME THROUGH A PROGRAM BECAUSE I AM A TOTAL PHONE ADDICT AND THIS WAS BEFORE THE PANDEMIC AND YOU CAN IMAGINE THE SCREEN TIME STATS NOW, THEY'RE NOT PRETTY.

ONE OF THE HARDEST THINGS TO OVERCOME OF THIS FEELING OF BEING BORED.

BEING ALONE WITH YOUR THOUGHTS.

THIS FEELING THAT PEOPLE FELT FOR MILLENIA BECAUSE WE HAVE THIS SUPER COMPUTER IN OUR POCKET THAT ENTERTAINS US AND STIMULATES US.

A BIG PART IS RELEARNING HOW TO BE BORED AND IDLED IN OUR THOUGHTS.

THAT'S WHERE OUR BIG HUMAN BREAKTHROUGH COMES FROM IS FROM THOSE MOMENTS IN BETWEEN.

THE MOMENT WHERE WE CAN LET OUR MIND WONDER.

KEVIN RUSE, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.